BUCHAREST -- Romanian ultranationalist George Simion appeared to wrap up a solid victory, though not the majority needed to avoid a runoff, in a presidential election nearly six months after an initial vote was abruptly canceled amid allegations of a Russian influence campaign.
But, as final votes were being tallied early on May 5, it remained uncertain who his next-round opponent will be, as Bucharest Mayor Nicursor Dan and Crin Antonescu, a member of the country's ruling coalition, remained neck-and-neck, with diaspora votes likely to determine the outcome.
With 97 percent of ballots counted, Simion, the 38-year-old leader of the AUR party, led with about 40 percent, or 3,407,645 votes, according to Romania’s Central Election Bureau.
Dan had 20.65 percent, while Antonescu had 20.64 percent, giving the Bucharest mayor a lead of about 1,000 votes.
Election officials estimate some 800,000 diaspora votes will be counted. Overall, they appear to favor Simion, followed by Dan, and final totals could be enough to send the Bucharest mayor into the May 18 runoff.
Results from exit polls from leading firms indicated similar results, although they gave Simion a smaller lead and included a higher total for Dan.
The vote is being closely watched outside of Romania, in part because Simion has made controversial statements claiming parts of Ukrainian and Moldovan territories as well as questioning Romanian military aid to Ukraine.
He has also criticized Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine.
Last November, Calin Georgescu, a pro-Russian nationalist seen as a fringe candidate, pulled off a surprise win in the first round of voting.
However, authorities annulled the results amid accusations of a Russian influence campaign to boost his candidacy. Georgescu was banned from running in the new elections, and a raft of new rules were introduced for the May 4 rerun.
The canceled vote drew criticism outside of Romania, most prominently from US Vice President JD Vance, who weighed in during a speech at the Munich Security Conference in February, accusing officials of acting on "flimsy suspicious and enormous pressure from its continental neighbors."
Simion has publicly embraced some of the rhetoric of US President Donald Trump and his Make America Great Again movement.
In November, he posted a photograph of himself wearing Trump’s signature red baseball cap with the logo "Trump Save America," and he recently said he's "perfectly aligned ideologically with the MAGA movement."
On April 24, electoral authorities announced an investigation into Simion's political party over allegations it had violated campaign-financing rules.
The investigation has centered on allegations that Simion organized a $1.5 million payment to a US lobbying firm to set up meetings in Washington with prominent media figures allied with Trump. Simion has denied the allegations.
The election campaign drew outside observers to monitor the vote. In a pre-election report, monitors from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) criticized some of Romania's registration and vote tallying procedures.
The Trump administration also sent its own election observer independent of the OSCE: a top official from the Federal Election Commission, which oversees US elections.
If the results are confirmed, Simion will fall short of the 50 percent-plus of the vote required for an outright victory. In that case, a second round of voting between the top two candidates will be held on May 18.
Most observers believe Simion would find it challenging to win a second round, particularly if Dan or Antonescu garner enough votes.
