The two elections coming up in Romania should not only set policy at home but impact foreign policy as well, including a possible softening of Bucharest's current support for Ukraine in its struggle against invading Russian forces.
When Are The Elections?
First up is the country's presidential poll. The outgoing center-right incumbent, Klaus Iohannis, ends his second term and a decade in office. More than a dozen candidates are running to replace him.
The first round is on November 24, and, if no candidate wins more than 50 percent of the ballots, the top two vote-getters for president will square off on December 8. In between, Romania holds parliamentary elections on December 1, which is also the country's National Day.
What Is At Stake?
The stakes in the two polls are high, according to Oana Popescu-Zamfir, director of the GlobalFocus Center, a Bucharest-based think tank.
Firstly, she said, "Romania is faced with two important realities next year: the threat of further instability and conflict in the region and globally, especially in the context of a [President-elect Donald] Trump White House."
Secondly, "the risks of deepening economic and financial crisis, given that [Romania is] currently running one of the highest twin budget deficits and inflation rates in the EU and the cost of commodities has continued to increase while government expenditure has stayed high (largely because of the bloated state apparatus)," Popescu-Zamfir told RFE/RL in e-mailed remarks.
What Do Voters Care About?
The economy and corruption seem to top the list of what most voters feel strongly about.
"Voters care about the cost of living, bringing down inflation, and the budget deficit, which are among the highest in the EU," Popescu-Zamfir said. They also care "about fiscal predictability and avoiding potentially very strict austerity measures."
Romania has been rocked by high inflation in recent years. In 2022, the rate was 13.8 percent, and in 2023 the figure dropped to 10.4 percent, according to data from the Romanian Institute of Statistics. In 2024, the rate, so far, is just over 5 percent, a bigger drop but still among the highest -- and at least in August the highest -- in the EU.
Corruption, either in the public or the private sphere, has long plagued Romania. In the state-run health sector, bribery to either see a doctor or receive treatment is still widely alleged at hospitals and clinics across the country, despite some progress in limiting the practice.
What About Foreign Policy?
While domestic concerns dominate, voters are also apprehensive about foreign affairs, namely Russia's ongoing war against Romania's neighbor, Ukraine, and how that conflict could change with a switch in Washington from U.S. President Joe Biden, who has steadily backed Kyiv, to Trump, who has suggested support could be curtailed.
"The threat of regional instability and war is also a source of concern. Voters care about candidates' positions on Ukraine, Russia, Trump, the extent of their Euro-Atlantic orientation," said Popescu-Zamfir, adding that voters were also focused on the presidential candidates' "ability to lead the country in case of escalating tensions with Russia."
Romania has become a key ally of Ukraine, not only providing training and military equipment, including a Patriot missile defense system, but playing a key role in transporting Ukrainian grain and other agricultural goods to global markets. Much of the credit for Bucharest's pro-Ukraine stance goes to the incumbent, Iohannis.
For NATO, Romania is a key ally on its eastern flank, with the alliance building its biggest military base there. Though lacking an executive role, Romania's president has significant decision-making powers, including on matters of national security and foreign policy. Elected for a five-year term, the president can also reject party nominees for prime minister and government nominees for judicial appointments.
How Might Elections Affect Support For Ukraine?
Hints the new president may not be such a steady supporter of Ukraine could be gleaned during the three-hour televised presidential debate on November 18, when nearly all the candidates said Ukraine would need to cede territory to Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the conflict, a position Trump has suggested is the only way forward.
"It's obvious that Ukraine doesn't have resources to get back all the lost territory. Crimea is almost impossible to get back, and Donbas is already Russianized," said Mircea Geoana, a former NATO deputy secretary-general, who is running as an independent. Geoana also argued Ukraine should keep its sovereignty and its Western orientation if it gives up land.
Elena Lasconi from the center-right Save Romania Union was the only presidential candidate who opposed the idea of Ukraine giving up land, saying doing so would embolden Russian President Vladimir Putin.
"If Ukraine cedes territory, Putin won't stop," she said. "We need to help Ukraine win this war."
George Simion, leader of the far-right, ultranationalist Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR), said, if elected, he would tell Trump that it's time for peace but he should consider allowing Ukraine to join NATO.
Of the five most serious challengers, Lasconi is most bullish on NATO, calling for the military alliance to have a greater presence in Romania. At the other extreme is Simion -- criticized by some rivals as being pro-Russian and anti-EU -- who has offered that Romania remain in NATO but be "neutral."
Who Is Likely To Win?
Noticeably absence from the presidential debate were Romanian Prime Minister and Social Democratic Party leader Marcel Ciolacu and the former center-right Prime Minister Nicolae Ciuca, who leads the Romanian Senate and has been part of a governing coalition with Ciolacu's party.
Ciolacu's absence was explained by his relative confidence heading into the vote. Polling shows he is the front-runner among the top five of the 13 overall presidential candidates. This is despite the fact Ciolacu has faced accusations of lying about links to a fraudulent real estate company, even triggering calls for him to resign.
In a possible runoff vote, Ciolacu could face Simion, a matchup, Popescu-Zamfir suggested, that the Social Democrats prefer.
"The Social Democrats are counting on clearing the way for Simion to make it to the second round rather than any of the other contenders, hoping that people will then flock to the voting stations to oppose a victory by the leader of the [far-right] AUR," Popescu-Zamfir said.
Popescu-Zamfir said that, for many Romanians, Simion's victory would be a "guaranteed turn toward [Hungarian Prime Minister] Viktor Orban's governing style and ideology: anti-Western, pro-Russian, autocratic, socially conservative, narrowing the space for civil rights, and freedoms."
Ciolacu's Social Democratic Party is also expected to outperform other parties in the December 1 parliamentary elections and will likely have the first crack at forming a new cabinet, noted analyst Veronica Anghel on X.
Whatever the outcome, "Romania is poised mostly for political continuity, a tightening of the belt in fiscal and economic terms to fix the deficit and inflation," Popescu-Zamfir said.
At the same time, the analyst said Bucharest will be "seeking cooperation with the Trump administration while staying the course on support for Ukraine as much as possible."
