WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Incoming U.S. President Donald Trump has once again kicked up a storm with his pursuit of Greenland, this time refusing to rule out the use of force to gain control of the Arctic island from ally Denmark for national-security reasons.
But Washington was interested in acquiring Greenland to mitigate threats emanating from the Arctic long before Trump came along, even offering Denmark $100 million in gold for the icy island shortly after the conclusion of World War II.
That interest has only expanded in recent years as Russia and China step up their military and commercial activities in the Arctic, conduct joint military exercises, and invest in new weapon systems like hypersonic missiles.
"Greenland is growing in importance as we find ourselves in a global competition with China and in a new technological revolution with regards to warfare," Rebecca Pincus, director of the Wilson Center's Polar Institute and a former adviser to the U.S. Defense Department on Arctic strategy, told RFE/RL.
"So, Greenland is important from a missile-defense perspective, from a space perspective, and from a global competition perspective, in which shipping and maritime sea lanes are increasingly important," she said.
Weakest Link In Homeland Defense
An autonomous territory of the Kingdom of Denmark, Greenland is physically closer to the United States with just 1,900 kilometers separating the state of Maine from the arctic island's shores.
As a territory of Denmark, it is part of NATO, but Greenland is pursuing independence from Copenhagen and some experts fear that could open a door for Russia and China to gain a foothold in the country.
While the United States already has a space base on Greenland for missile defense and space surveillance, control of the entire island would enable Washington to better defend against naval and air threats emanating from the region as well as dangers from space.
Russia has a much greater military presence in the Arctic than the United States and has continued to invest heavily in its defense capabilities in the region despite the war in Ukraine.
Retired U.S. General Terrence J. O'Shaughnessy, who served as commander of the U.S. Northern Command, told a Senate hearing in February 2020 that if Russia were to attack the United States, it would likely do so via the Arctic.
"The Arctic is no longer a fortress wall, and our oceans are no longer protective moats; they are now avenues of approach," he told the hearing.
Jahara Matisek, a professor at the U.S. Naval War College who spoke to RFE/RL as an independent expert and not on behalf of the government, said U.S. military infrastructure in the Arctic has languished, calling it the weakest link in homeland defense.
"If you want to be a powerful space-faring nation and be able to project space power in terms of offensive and defensive space weapon systems and other sorts of ISR (intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance), you have to have infrastructure in the Arctic Circle -- not to mention the Antarctic Circle -- to seamlessly communicate and control all of your satellites," he said.
Chinese Ambitions
While China is not an Arctic nation, it is seeking to be a major player in the region. In recent years, Beijing has sought to buy ports, other infrastructure, and mining rights on Greenland though it has not been successful.
Matisek said the United States suspected China's real interest in those projects was to place dual-use sensors and radars in the Arctic Circle to help control their military satellites and gather intelligence on U.S. space-based operations in the region.
"If China can disrupt our 'Kill Chain' -- our space-based assets, our satellites -- then we will struggle to shoot things down. We will struggle to target, identify, attack, so that's why Greenland ends up actually mattering a lot," he said.
Pincus said the United States needs more ISR in the Arctic.
"That's our biggest gap that we need to close. So, we need more sensors from space to the seabed. And we need a data fusion capability to integrate all of that sensor data and observations into something that's a usable product for decision makers," she said.
Pincus said it makes sense that Russia and China would carry out joint military exercises in the Arctic.
"It's not surprising that they're focused on the Arctic, because the U.S. is weak in surface presence in the Arctic," she said, pointing out that the United States has no more than two functioning icebreakers compared to about four and a few dozen, respectively, for China and Russia.
Northern Passage
As ice continues to recede in the Arctic due to rising temperatures, it is opening a path for ships -- including military vessels -- to transit from Europe to Asia via the waters above Greenland and Canada.
"Chinese merchant shipping will increase passage along the northern route as it's shorter for them, but presumably Chinese warships will also use that route," Ben Hodges, a retired U.S. lieutenant general and former commander of U.S. Army forces in Europe, told RFE/RL.
Military vessels coming into the Atlantic Ocean from the Arctic would have to pass through the GIUK gap -- the stretch of water between Greenland, Iceland, and Scotland. During the Cold War, NATO forces tracked Soviet submarines coming into the North Atlantic through that gap, Hodges said.
Receding ice will also make it easier to mine Greenland's massive reserves of natural resources. They include metals critical for the production of high-technology goods, electric vehicles, and wind turbines.
China dominates many of those metals markets, including their mining, refining, and processing -- and Beijing has expressed interest in developing Greenland's natural resources.
The monetization of those natural resources is crucial for Greenland's dream of independence. The island still depends on subsidies from Denmark.
"When you have a nation like Greenland, they need money for investment. China and Russia will throw money at this problem," Philip M. Breedlove, a retired four-star U.S. Air Force general who led U.S. forces in Europe and served as NATO's supreme allied commander from 2013 to 2016, said in an interview with The Cipher Brief.
"Guaranteeing a Western-leaning Greenland is extremely important," he said, adding it "doesn't have to be through sovereign ownership."
Matisek said Trump may simply be trying to get the United States to "really take Greenland seriously" because of the integral role it plays in North American defense.
It is also "obviously an attempt to make sure the Chinese and Russians don't get a footprint there," he said.