Russia over the weekend launched its largest aerial attack on Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022, while maintaining pressure on Kyiv's forces at the front line.
The future of direct peace talks is uncertain, with hopes for a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy dissolving in discord between the two leaders.
The discussion of security guarantees for Ukraine is clouded by questions about Washington's commitment and vocal opposition from the Kremlin to any Western forces in Ukraine.
With peace seeming as distant as ever despite his efforts to end the biggest war in Europe since 1945, US President Donald Trump has hinted that new sanctions against Russia could come soon, and Washington is huddling with the EU about potential punishments for Moscow.
Will the war grind on into 2026? Or is there a chance for a change? Here's what led to this moment -- and what to watch in the coming days and weeks.
Problematic Peace Talks
This spring and summer, Russia and Ukraine held their first direct negotiations on the war since the first few months of the full-scale invasion, with delegations meeting in Istanbul three times between May and July. Trump, meanwhile, met with Putin in Alaska on August 15 and with Zelenskyy and European leaders three days later.
The Ukraine-Russia talks produced agreements on exchanges of prisoners and the remains of soldiers but brought no visible progress to toward peace or even a cease-fire. For many in Ukraine and the West, in fact, they hardened the impression that Putin, whose goal is the subjugation of Ukraine, does not want peace on anything short of his terms.
No date has been set for a new round of negotiations, and Putin has fended off calls by Trump and Zelenskyy for a face-to-face meeting with the Ukrainian president by insisting that if it is held anytime soon, by which he seems to mean before a de facto Ukrainian surrender, then it must be held in Moscow -- an obvious nonstarter for Ukraine.
Zelenskyy, who for months has proposed meeting in a third country, responded by saying Putin could come to Kyiv -- also a nonstarter, albeit for Moscow.
"I can't go to Moscow when my country's under missiles, under attack, each day. I can't go to the capital of this terrorist," Zelenskyy told ABC News on September 5.
Bombs And Battles
About 48 hours later, Russia unleashed its biggest aerial attack on Ukraine yet, firing 810 drones and decoys in an assault that hit hardest in Kyiv, where the government headquarters was damaged and three people were killed, including a mother and her 3-month-old child, authorities said.
After the exchange with Zelenskyy about a meeting venue, the choice of Kyiv as a target may have been no coincidence. In any case, the barrage looked like a way for Putin to repeat a statement he made days earlier on a visit to China: that Russia will achieve its goals through military force if diplomacy does not produce peace.
One of Putin's goals is to control the entirety of Ukraine's Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhya, and Kherson regions, which he baselessly claimed in September 2022 are part of Russia. Efforts to seize the remainder of even the Donetsk region have come at a huge cost in terms of casualties, but analysts say Putin believes Russia has the upper hand on the battlefield.
Zelenskyy has said Russia has about 100,000 troops near the Donetsk region city of Pokrovsk and is gearing up for an autumn offensive.
Security Guarantees
While Russia presses ahead with its invasion, a major part of the diplomacy in the West -- and particularly among Kyiv's European backers -- has been discussions of security guarantees for Ukraine in the event of a peace deal.
French President Emmanuel Macron, who hosted a September 4 meeting of a group called the Coalition of the Willing, said 26 countries had committed to sending troops "as a reassurance force in Ukraine or to be present on the ground, at sea, or in the air."
"In the coming days, we will finalize American support for these security guarantees. The United States, as I said, was involved in all stages of the process," Macron said. But questions remain about a potential US role, and there are two other nagging issues.
One is opposition from Russia.
In China, Putin warned that foreign troops in Ukraine would be "legitimate targets" while fighting continues. He also said there would be no need for such forces if a peace deal is struck, stating Russia's compliance would be beyond doubt -- a claim widely dismissed in Ukraine and the West based on Moscow's conduct in Ukraine since it seized control of Crimea in 2014.
The other problem: For a force to be deployed once the fighting is over, the fighting needs to be over. A at this point, peace seems no closer than it was when Trump took office in January following a campaign in which he repeatedly said he could end the war in a day or two.
Are Tougher Sanctions On The Way?
The biggest variable right now is the possibility of new Western sanctions against Russia.
Trump has repeatedly threatened to impose tighter sanctions on Russia, but aside from raising tariffs on most Indian imports by 25 percent over New Delhi's purchases of Russian oil, he has so far stayed his hand despite voicing frequent frustration with Putin's resistance to ending the invasion.
Nothing is certain, but there are now signs he may be closer than ever to imposing new sanctions.
Asked on September 7 whether ready to move to a "second phase" of sanctions, he answered, "Yeah, I am."
Separately, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on NBC, "If the US and the [European Union] can come in, do more sanctions, secondary tariffs on the countries that buy Russian oil, the Russian economy will be in full collapse, and that will bring President Putin to the table."
"We are prepared to increase pressure on Russia, but we need our partners in Europe to follow," Bessent said. The EU has sharply reduced Russian energy imports, but Washington is urging it to make further cuts and buy more from the United States.
The EU said its sanctions envoy, David O'Sullivan, would lead a delegation to the United States on September 8 for two days of talks on coordinating sanctions against Russia.
Trump has stopped short of hitting China, the biggest purchaser of Russian crude oil, with tariffs or sanctions over that trade. In addition to expanding the use of secondary tariffs, the United States has reportedly considered imposing sanctions on major Russian energy companies such as state giant Rosneft and Lukoil, as well as targeting Russia's "shadow fleet" of tankers that help it evade sanctions.
"There is plenty more that the West can do," said Nigel Gould-Davies, senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. "Its use of secondary sanctions, the most potent weapon, remains limited. It can go much further in sanctioning shadow fleet oil tankers in particular.
"Chinese entities have been risk-averse when faced with the prospect of sanctions," he told RFE/RL. "Escalating sanctions that will affect them can usefully signal the risks China faces in being what NATO now calls the 'decisive enabler' of Russia's war in Ukraine."
The EU-US talks come as Brussels prepares to impose a new round of sanctions on Russia, its 19th package of penalties since the start of the full-scale invasion.
Among other things, the EU is considering expanding its own "shadow fleet" sanctions, kicking more banks off the SWIFT financial transaction system, and hitting individual companies outside Russia with secondary sanctions for helping Moscow fund the war, according to French and German proposals shared with other EU members late last week and seen by RFE/RL.
There is also discussion of limiting the numbers of Russian diplomats operating in the EU and Russia citizens traveling to Europe on tourist visas, the proposals and people familiar with EU deliberations said.
Publicly, Russia has shrugged off Western sanctions, and it continued to do so as talk of new measures swirled.
"No sanctions will be able to force the Russian Federation to change the consistent position that our president has repeatedly spoken about," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on September 8.
US participation is crucial, Gould-Davies said.
"America wields the strongest sanctions sticks by virtue of the key role of dollar clearing in the global economy. So whether or not America participates in new sanctions makes an enormous difference," he wrote in e-mailed comments.
"This would also be fundamentally significant symbolically too: the first time President Trump has backed up stern words for Russia with deeds, rather than concessions."
