The day after U.S. President Donald Trump announced his intention to slap 25-percent tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, the European Union’s chief executive hit back.
“The EU will act to safeguard its economic interests. We will protect our workers, businesses, and consumers,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in a statement. “Unjustified tariffs on the EU will not go unanswered -- they will trigger firm and proportionate countermeasures.”
Transatlantic relations are lurching into new territory as the Trump administration embraces a more muscular, transactional, and mercantilist American foreign policy, aimed at protecting U.S. jobs and industry and rewriting long-standing rules of international trade.
For adversaries like Iran or China, it’s not a massive leap from past U.S. administrations that have been putting Beijing and Tehran on notice. For allies and partners like the European Union, however, it’s jarring and disconcerting.
“Things seem less predictable than the first Trump administration, and certainly more so than most administrations,” said Chase Foster, an assistant professor of politics at King’s College London, who studies U.S. and EU regulatory policies.
“To say that there will be friction [between Washington and Brussels] is an understatement,” Dalibor Rohac, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, in Washington, told RFE/RL.
“Signals coming from the United States are making conventional European leaders deeply uncomfortable,” Rohac said. “To be sure, all politics is inherently 'transactional,' but Donald Trump's understanding of America's national interests seems extraordinarily narrow and personalistic.”
“The next few years could be very dangerous for Europe’s stability and security, and will put the transatlantic relationship -- which has benefited U.S. as well as European interests for the last 80 years -- under extreme, perhaps terminal strain,” said Ian Bond, deputy director from the London-based Center for European Reform.
Caution: Turbulence Ahead
Coming less than two weeks after the Trump administration slapped tariffs on its two largest trading partners -- Canada and Mexico -- the steel-and-aluminum tariffs that Trump announced on February 10 were mostly expected.
Trump has long argued that U.S. industry is being undermined for cheaper imports. Tariffs are a key tool the administration intends to use to negotiate what it says will be better deals for American workers, protecting jobs while also raising tax revenue.
Unlike the previous announcement, the EU was not singled out; Canada and Mexico are also major producers and exporters of steel and aluminum to the United States. Trump officials have also signaled other tariffs would be coming down the pike -- on cars and trucks, for example -- that would have a more direct effect on the EU.
“I would expect some sort of trade war,” Foster said. “I’m not saying things will spiral completely out of control, but I would expect if 10- to 20-percent tariffs are imposed across the board, on goods from Europe, I will expect the EU to respond in kind.”
The Trump administration does have an advantage over Brussels: the strength of the U.S. economy compared with that of the EU, which is sputtering.
There’s the potential of blowback as well, if U.S. trade policies are perceived as bullying.
If that happens, Foster said, European industries and their political backers could push back at Trump policies, resulting in “economic patriotism,” or a “rally-around-the-flag” sentiment.
“Look what happened in Canada,” he said. “An aggressive posture, when a country feels attacked economically by a more powerful country.”
“Economic patriotism is a cross-partisan sentiment,” Foster added, “so I could see European populations putting aside many of their differences and coming together in favor of a kind of common policy to defend their interests against the United States or any other country that is seen as bullying them.”
Tech Giant Fray
The EU has a more aggressive approach to regulating tech companies like Google and Apple. Last year, the Digital Markets Act came into force, designating six tech giants as “gatekeepers,” and requiring them to comply with stricter regulations. Five of the six are American; the other is Chinese -- the parent company of TikTok.
Meanwhile, Silicon Valley’s executives --- Tesla and X chief Elon Musk, most famously -- have wholeheartedly embraced the Trump White House. In general, the companies have chafed at the EU regulations.
At an artificial intelligence summit held this week in Paris, attended by U.S. and European leaders and tech executives, Trump’s vice president, JD Vance, criticized the EU efforts to regulate the tech sector.
“We believe that excessive regulation of the AI sector could kill a transformative industry just as it's taking off,” Vance said. “We will make every effort to encourage pragmatic growth and AI policies.”
“I think for many Europeans, ‘Big Tech’ is viewed as an existential threat, both to the future of their economy, Europe's ability to maintain a competitive advantage [with its own] technologies, but also as a threat to European democracy,” Foster said.
“It's not just, you know, the misinformation that we all know exists online…but it's also the fact that these companies are primarily located outside of Europe,” “he said. “So I don't know if the kinds of requests being put forward by the Trump administration can be satisfied by European leaders.”
Right Rising Tide
There’s also the question of whether Trump’s conservative policy bent will boost the standing or clout of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, both of whom have harnessed populist messages, mixed with policies seen as conservative, to win elections.
“What is striking about Orban and Fico is that their agenda is distinctly anti-American -- it seeks to strengthen the position of U.S. adversaries in the region, such as Russia and China,” Rohac said. “And yet, they seem to share an odd affinity for the current administration which claims to pursue an 'America First' agenda.”
Orban, who has made thumbing his nose at the EU one of his signature issues, has consolidated power around the concept called “illiberal democracy” -- undermining independence of media and the courts, and cementing the ruling Fidesz party as the dominant force in government.
He’s also no secret of his enthusiasm for Trump and conservative activists in the United States. On U.S. election day, when Trump defeated Democratic opponent Kamala Harris, the Hungarian leader posted a triumphant “We Won!” message on his Facebook page.
Orban “feels vindicated and is doubling down on [his] ‘Euroskeptic’ and illiberal stance that…manifests in spoiler behavior on the EU stage,” Zsuzsanna Vegh, a Berlin-based program officer at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, told RFE/RL.
Orban is also empowered to pressure opposition groups and government critics, Vegh said.
“The government's narrative attacking independent media and NGOs in Hungary. This pattern is likely to be followed by other likeminded actors in the EU, and Robert Fico is indeed starting down a very similar path,” she added.
Fico is different from Orban, said Grigorij Meseznikov, a Slovak political analyst based in Bratislava, and not easily categorized as right-wing politician.
“True he’s presenting ideas are very close to far right, but he is not a typical far-right politician. He still follows a pro-Russian narrative. He’s pro-Russian and he’s also anti-America, which is quite paradoxical,” said Meseznikov, an occasional contributor to RFE/RL’s programs.
“Overall, he has a positive attitude toward Trump. I think he welcomed his victory in the presidential election, despite his anti-Americanism,” he said.
Last week, Fico released a public letter calling on Musk, whose efforts have included dismantling the U.S. aid agency USAID, to share information about Slovak “nongovernmental organizations, the media, and individual journalists” who have received USAID money.
Meseznikov called the letter “a complete joke,” since, he said, USAID has had minimal presence or funding in Slovakia for years.
“I expect that the Trump White House will do its best to boost the standing of right-wing populists in Europe -- not just those already in power, like Orban and Fico, but those seeking it,” Bond said, citing Germany’s AfD (Alternative for Deutschland) or France’s National Rally as examples.
