Welcome to Wider Europe, RFE/RL's newsletter focusing on the key issues concerning the European Union, NATO, and other institutions and their relationships with the Western Balkans and Europe's Eastern neighborhoods.
I'm RFE/RL Europe Editor Rikard Jozwiak, and this week I am drilling down on two elections: the Moldovan election and its consequences for the EU and Ukraine and the upcoming Czech elections and their impact on the bloc.
Briefing #1: What's At Stake In The Czech Elections?
What You Need To Know: When Czech voters head to the polls this weekend, many fear the country may turn away from its pro-European path, taking away one of Ukraine's staunchest supporters as its battle to repel invading Russian forces nears a fourth year.
Most polls indicate that billionaire Andrej Babis and his populist ANO party will win the parliamentary elections on October 3-4 with around 30 percent of the vote. That means Babis would have to form a coalition government with fringe parties that would bring the country closer to Viktor Orban's Hungary and Robert Fico's Slovakia in terms of its outlook on Ukraine: stopping aid for Kyiv and becoming less enthusiastic about Czech membership in Western institutions.
While not in total alignment with Moscow's positions, Prague would become more vocal on the need to immediately stop the war and aim for peace -– most likely on the Kremlin's terms. Expect less harsh rhetoric toward China, as well.
Polling and political analyst Michael Ashcroft said in an analysis that the Czechs may join "what is from Kyiv's point of view a worrying trend in Central and Eastern Europe, with the existing stance of the Hungarian and Slovakian governments and the new Polish president much less inclined to defend Ukrainian sovereignty."
"The consequences could include isolating Ukraine from Western European partners, disrupting military supplies and sowing further division in the alliance," he added.
Just as it did in Moldova -- where elections last weekend saw a massive Russian disinformation campaign try and swing voters away from pro-Europe parties -- the Kremlin has been looking to take advantage of the waning support for aid to Ukraine that has help fueled Babis's rise back to prominence.
Deep Background: A Czech research group uncovered nearly 300 anonymous TikTok accounts aimed at amplifying pro-Russian narratives and backing radical parties in the final weeks of the election campaign.
The Center For Research Into Online Risks said in a statement on September 28 that Czech TikTok accounts with millions of followers "are systematically spreading pro-Russian propaganda and support for anti-system parties through manipulated engagement."
The center added that the accounts are not tied to a single political entity, instead "combining support for multiple anti-system parties simultaneously."
"The cumulative reach of these accounts is 5 to 9 million views per week, more than the combined official accounts of the leaders of the largest Czech political parties on TikTok," it said.
Drilling Down:
- Analysts say the key thing to look out for now is which parties gain enough votes to enter parliament as Babis will likely need a coalition to govern.
- Spolu (Together), an alliance of center-right parties that includes the incumbent Prime Minister Petr Fiala's Civic Democrats, is polling at around 20 percent, whereas the other parties of the current pro-Western coalition government Stan (Mayors and Independents) and the Pirates are predicted to end up with 10-12 percent each.
- All of these parties have said they have no interest in joining a coalition with ANO or even backing it with votes to pass legislation as a single-party minority government.
- But this is pre-election talk, and their tune could change after the vote, especially amid growing fears that more radical coalition alternatives could derail the Czech Republic's pro-Western course. As junior coalition partners, these parties could demand key posts in the Foreign Ministry and Defense Ministry.
- Secondly, there are factions in the current government, notably in the Civic Democrats, that share ANO's political positions -- committed to NATO but weaker on EU membership where it has voiced clear opposition to euro adoption and Brussels policies such as mandatory refugee quotas and the green deal.
- But the Central European country could also change radically if Babis teams up with any of the current opposition parties that are even more radical than ANO. These include the far-right SPD, polling above 10 percent, as well as a smaller far-right outfit AUTO (Motorists For Themselves) and the far-left Stacilo (Enough), both of which are expected to clear the 5 percent threshold needed to gain seats in parliament.
- Governing with any of these would likely lead to a real rapprochement with Orban and Fico, both of whom have been critical of aid to Ukraine and are also in the vanguard of countries in Europe that continue to purchase Russian oil and natural gas following Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
- A key figure in what follows the voting will be pro-Western President Petr Pavel, who plays a role in government formation as well as foreign policy in general. Pavel, a former senior NATO general, has made it clear he won't allow the government to stray too far from the Western course.
- Babis has been a constant fixture of Czech politics for the past 15 years, first serving as finance minister and deputy prime minister before leading the country from 2017 to 2021, as well as attempting to become president only to be trounced by Pavel in 2023.
- One of the country's richest people, with considerable stakes in agribusiness and media, his time in the public spotlight has been dogged by legal disputes and accusations of conflicts of interest and EU subsidy fraud.
- It's also his business interests that many believe could keep him, and by extension the Czech Republic, anchored in the West as good relations between France, Germany, and Austria as well as the continued flow of EU agriculture and cohesion funds are more important than anything Beijing and Moscow can offer.
- Babis has chartered a more populist course in recent years and was one of the creators of the biggest populist forces on the Continent: Patriots For Europe, a political family also consisting of Orban's Fidesz, Marine Le Pen's National Rally, Spain's Vox, and Austria's Freedom party. He has also voiced support for Fico's Smer party even though it is not formally part of this alliance.
- Rallying against all things Brussels, environmentalism, and immigration, they would also find sympathetic ears beyond Central Europe with right-wing populists of various hues on the rise or in power in many other Western capitals as well.
Briefing #2: What To Make Of The Moldovan Election Results?
What You Need To Know: Moldovan President Maia Sandu's Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) looks set to come out on top of crucial elections despite what appears to have been a concerted disinformation campaign from the Kremlin.
The real winner may be Brussels.
PAS, a pro-Western party in one of Europe's poorest nations, faced a stiff challenge from its biggest rival, the Patriotic Electoral Bloc, an alliance of pro-Russia parties led by the former Moldovan President Igor Dodon.
The result, wherein PAS is predicted to have taken at least 54 of parliament's 101 seats, is stunning given many polls had the two factions neck and neck, with the Kremlin putting considerable effort into trying to tip the balance in its favor.
With Moldova crammed between Ukraine and NATO and European Union member Romania, Brussels was on edge for weeks leading up to the September 28 vote. A pro-Russia win would have put a major wedge into its eastern flank at a time when Moscow appears emboldened to test the West's resolve while grinding out gains on battlefields in Ukraine.
It appears it can now breathe a sigh of relief that Moldova will remain outside of the Kremlin's reach, at least for the meantime.
"Moldova's pro-European victory is a lesson for all Europe on how to defend against Russian interference," according to Siegfried Muresan, a European member of parliament and vice president of the European People's Party. "Moldova remains firmly anchored on the pro-European path. Good news for the people of Moldova! Good news for Europe!"
Deep Background: The result is a political hat trick for Sandu, with the parliamentary election win coming less than a year after she was returned to the presidential palace and a referendum on EU membership that was won by a whisker.
The stakes were indeed monumental in a vote that was very much seen as a choice between Brussels and Moscow, and neither side made any secrets about who they were backing.
In the run-up, Russia claimed NATO was preparing to "occupy" Moldova, though it gave no evidence and has repeatedly accused the government in Chisinau of "anti-Russian hysteria."
Sandu, and others, accused the Kremlin of "pouring hundreds of millions of euros" into the country to spread disinformation.
In recent weeks, Moldovan authorities followed up these allegations by carrying out police raids throughout the country aimed at what they called "preparation of mass riots and destabilization, which were coordinated from the Russian Federation through criminal elements."
Two pro-Russian parties, the Heart of Moldova and Moldova Mare (Greater Moldova), were also barred from participating in this past weekend's vote after allegations of voter bribery, illegal party financing, and money laundering. The final decision on Greater Moldova was made on September 28, hours after the vote began.
The EU, normally strictly neutral about elections in member states and candidate countries, made little effort of hiding its allegiances to PAS, with a European Commission spokesperson noting that Russia was "deeply interfering in the electoral process."
But it didn't stop there.
Numerous European leaders showed up in Chisinau in recent times with obligatory photo-ops with Sandu, sanctions on pro-Russia politicians have been imposed and enlarged in the last couple of years, and a 1.9 billion euro ($2.23 billion) growth plan for the next three years was unveiled in early 2025 to finance infrastructure and energy projects in the country.
Drilling Down:
- Perhaps the coup de grace was delivered just three days before the vote when Greece allowed for the extradition of the oligarch Vlad Plahotniuc. The image of the lead suspect in a long-running investigation into the disappearance of some $1 billion from banks back in 2014 arriving in handcuffs in Chisinau was just the tonic that Sandu, who has built her entire career on fighting graft, needed.
- The fact is the EU simply could not afford to lose this vote. Since the Georgian Dream clung to power in parliamentary elections in Georgia last fall, Tbilisi has slipped away from talks about bloc membership, even if the country still nominally is a candidate.
- With no end in sight for the war in Ukraine and the momentum on the battlefield still favoring Russia, Moldova remains the only country in the club's eastern neighborhood that has a viable chance of becoming a member.
- The goal of achieving that this decade remains after these elections. Chisinau and Brussels are ready to open negotiations on all 33 enlargement chapters. It can go fast as the EU is keen to add at least a few more members both from the Western Balkans and the east before the next European elections in 2029.
- So far, nothing has moved as Moldova and Ukraine are coupled in the process and Hungary is blocking Kyiv's EU path due to minority rights issues. It could well be that Moldova now moves ahead without Ukraine, potentially even later this year.
- The PAS win is a Ukrainian win, as well.
- An important hub for the war-torn country, Kyiv could ill-afford having another hostile neighbor, this time to its west. Now it could well be that Moldova is the locomotive that pulls Ukraine with it into the EU.
- That is what EU officials had in mind when both countries were given the green light to join the bloc three years ago. The pro-European victory at least ensures that the possibility is still real.
Looking Ahead
There are two summits in Copenhagen this week, starting with an informal gathering of all EU leaders on October 1. The discussion there will focus on European defense, notably issues like a potential drone wall and issues related to Ukraine, including its stalled EU accession talks, sanctions on Russia and how to finance Kyiv going forward.
On October 2, leaders from most European countries meet for the biannual European Political Community summit. Don't expect any concrete outcomes but a flurry of political speed-dating.
That's all for this week!
Feel free to reach out to me on any of these issues on X @RikardJozwiak, or on e-mail at jozwiakr@rferl.org.
Until next time,
Rikard Jozwiak
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