Middle East
After Degrading Hamas And Hezbollah, Israel Intensifies Attacks On Yemen's Houthis
Israel has degraded the fighting capabilities of its chief adversaries over the past year, including Lebanon's Hezbollah and the U.S.- and EU-designated Palestinian terrorist group Hamas.
But Yemen's Houthi rebels, who continue to fire missiles and drones at Israel, have proven a resilient foe despite Israeli attacks.
"Deterring the Houthis presents significant challenges," said Ahmed Nagi, a Yemen analyst for the Brussels-based International Crisis Group. "Israel lacks sufficient intelligence about the group and its operational capabilities."
Israel's success hinges on its ability to locate and destroy the Iranian-backed group's weapons facilities, a task that has "proven difficult so far," Nagi said.
Another challenge is geography. Yemen is located some 2,000 kilometers from Israel. The Houthis also control large swaths of the country, including their stronghold in the mountainous northwest and the Red Sea coastline.
Even so, Israel has intensified its air strikes in recent weeks against the Houthis, despite the armed group posing a limited direct military threat to Israel. The escalating Israeli attacks have threatened to exacerbate the humanitarian crisis in Yemen.
Escalating Attacks
On December 26, Israel said it conducted air strikes on the main airport in Sanaa as well as power stations and "military infrastructure" at several Yemeni ports.
The head of the World Health Organization narrowly escaped death in the Israeli strikes on the airport that killed at least six people.
Israel's allies, including the United States and Britain, have also carried out strikes in Yemen.
The U.S. military said that it carried out air strikes against Houthi targets in Sanaa and along the Yemeni coast on December 30 and 31, including a "command and control facility and advanced conventional weapon production and storage facilities."
The Houthis have fired on U.S. naval forces and attacked international shipping in the Red Sea, disrupting a key global trade route.
The Israeli strikes came amid almost daily missile and drone attacks by the Houthis on Israel. Most of the attacks have been intercepted by Israel's air defenses and have caused little material damage. But they have triggered constant air raid sirens in many parts of Israel and disrupted everyday life.
The Houthis launched their attacks on Israel and international shipping in late 2023. It came soon after Israel began its devastating war in the Gaza Strip. The rebels have vowed to continue their attacks until a cease-fire is reached in the Palestinian enclave.
Farzan Sabet, a senior research associate at the Geneva Graduate Institute, said Israel is largely operating against the Houthis in the dark. Israeli attacks, he said, have mainly targeted "civilian and strategic infrastructure rather than the military assets."
Civilians have borne the brunt of the violence in Yemen, where two-thirds of the population of some 35 million people need humanitarian assistance.
"We, the people, are paying for it, not the Houthis," said Mustapha Noman, a former Yemeni deputy foreign minister. "This helps them."
Iran's Trusted Allies
The Houthis are part of Iran's so-called axis of resistance, its loose network of proxies and militant groups against archfoe Israel.
Israel has severely weakened the axis over the past year. Israel's ground invasion and devastating air campaign in Lebanon decimated the military capabilities of Hezbollah, an armed group and political party in Lebanon.
Israel's ongoing war in the Gaza Strip has devastated the Palestinian territory and diminished the fighting power of Hamas.
Meanwhile, in early December, longtime Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, another member of the axis and a key ally of Iran, was ousted from power by Islamist rebels.
That has heightened the importance of the Houthis for Iran. The rebels are armed with highly capable ballistic missiles and are the least affected by the Israeli strikes.
"Without the Houthis, Israel would likely shift its full focus towards targeting and weakening Iran directly," said Nagi.
More News
EU Groups Looking At Energy-Saving Measures In Response To Iran War Crisis
Key European Union oil and gas groups will hold meetings this week as countries around the bloc scramble to deal with the impact of the US-Israel-led war with Iran on energy prices and supplies.
European Commission spokeswoman Anna-Kaisa Itkonen told a news briefing on April 7 the oil coordination group will meet on April 8, while the gas group will convene the following day.
The EU is facing energy-saving measures such as reduced air travel, highway speed limits, and work-from-home directives as the war has resulted in the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, the transit corridor for about 20 percent of the world's oil and gas.
Last month the bloc's energy ministers held an emergency meeting, and while no concrete measures were agreed upon the European commissioner for energy, Dan Jorgensen, promised that Brussels would soon be announcing a package of EU-level measures.
According to EU officials familiar with the file who spoke to RFE/RL on the condition of anonymity, these measures might include more flexible state aid rules for energy companies as well as a push for more renewables and nuclear energy.
They also could potentially include more drastic emergency moves -- similar to when Russia launched its full-scale attack on Ukraine in early 2022 -- such as an EU-wide cap on gas prices and taxation of energy companies' windfall profits.
The 27-nation bloc is already bracing for a big economic hit if the war drags on. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz told reporters last week that the burden on the EU's economy might be as heavy as it was during the Covid-19 pandemic or first few months of the Ukraine war.
Ahead of the meeting of energy ministers, Jorgensen wrote a letter to member states, seen by RFE/RL, in which he stated that "while the direct exposure of the EU to supply from the region prior to the conflict is limited, we are depending on global markets for our fossil fuels supply in direct competition with other consumers."
Countries including Italy, Austria, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Croatia, and France have already adopted various measures to mitigate the impact of the sharp jump in prices and choking of supplies resulting from the Iran war.
While Europe has diversified in recent years with most imports instead coming from Algeria, Azerbaijan, Norway and the United States, the increased global demand from dwindling supplies have meant prices at the pump have surged in the EU, as well.
But the EU is also more dependent on so-called refined petroleum products, meaning materials derived from crude oil through processing, such as diesel, asphalt, and especially kerosene, which is essential for modern jet engines with 40 percent of supplies coming from the Persian Gulf.
Jorgensen's letter says a shortage of these products is of "particular concern in the short term" and suggests "member states are invited to consider the promotion of demand saving measures, in accordance with their contingency plans, with particular attention to the transport sector."
Some airlines have already signaled they may reduce the number of flights on certain routes. The last kerosene shipments that passed through the Strait of Hormuz before its closure are due to arrive in Europe next week.
The letter references the International Energy Agency's (IEA) recent 10-point recommendation, which include energy reduction costs such as working from home, reduced air travel, carsharing, alternate private car access to roads, lowering the speed limit by 10 kilometers per hour, and discouraging the use of liquified petroleum gas (LPG) when cooking.
Additionally, the letter also urges member states to defer any non-emergency refinery maintenance and to increase the uptake of biofuels to replace fossil fuels.
Hours Before US Deadline For Iran, Pakistan Calls For An Extension And A Truce
Hours before a US deadline for Iran to reach a deal or face intense attacks on power plants and other infrastructure, Pakistan urged President Donald Trump to give Tehran two more weeks to allow the two sides to reach a peace settlement.
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, whose country is leading efforts to mediate between the United States and Iran, also called on all sides in the war to cease fire and for Tehran to open the Strait of Hormuz to shipping for the same two-week period.
The last-ditch request came as global concern over Trump's remark earlier on April 7 that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran fails to reach a deal mounted, with Pope Leo, an American, suggesting it was "truly unacceptable" and others warning against attacks on civilian infrastructure.
"Diplomatic efforts for peaceful settlement of the ongoing war in the Middle East are progressing steadily, strongly and powerfully with the potential to lead to substantive results in near future," Sharif said in a post on X less than five hours before the deadline set by Trump -- 8 p.m. EST on April 7, or 3:30 a.m. on April 8 in Iran-- was due to expire.
“To allow diplomacy to run its course, I earnestly request President Trump to extend the deadline for two weeks," he wrote.
"Pakistan...requests the Iranian brothers to open Strait of Hormuz for a corresponding period of two weeks as a goodwill gesture. We also urge all warring parties to observe a cease-fire everywhere for two weeks to allow diplomacy to achieve conclusive termination of war."
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told media outlets that Trump had been made aware of Pakistan's proposal and that a response would come.
Reuters cited a senior Iranian official it did not name as saying Tehran was positively reviewing the request for a two-week cease-fire, but also that Iran is ready both for peace and for war.
There have been few signs the sides are ready for compromise in the war, which began with US and Israeli air strikes on Iran on February 28, and little overlap between proposals put forth by Washington and Tehran.
"A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again," Trump, who has extended the deadline several times since he first issued the ultimatum in March, wrote on his Truth Social platform on April 7. "I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will."
Trump's post followed his warnings that the United States would target Iran's power plants and bridges in remarks described by Iranian officials as threats that amount to "war crimes," though some international legal experts dispute such a claim.
It also came just hours after US and Israeli air strikes hit multiple locations across Iran, including infrastructure and the strategic Kharg Island.
Iranian media reported explosions across Tehran and the sound of air defense fire on April 7, with some accounts describing fighter jets flying at low altitude over the capital.
Strikes were also reported on Kharg Island, where some 90 percent of Iran's oil exports are shipped from, as well as major bridges on the Tabriz-Zanjan highway and another near the holy city of Qom.
Several media outlets including CNN, Reuters, and Fox News quoted US officials confirming the strikes on Kharg Island. The Wall Street Journal said "more than 50 military targets" were hit in the attacks.
Prior to Trump's comments on social media, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) warned in a statement just moments after the strikes were reported that it would target US and allied infrastructure across the region if the United States crossed "red lines."
The IRGC also put American partners in the Persian Gulf and beyond on notice, saying that restraint shown toward neighboring states "out of good neighborliness" was now over and that "all such considerations have been lifted" -- a signal that Gulf Arab states hosting US military assets could become direct targets.
The statement marks a shift in Iran's stated position.
While Tehran has previously struck targets in several regional countries, it had until now maintained that those states themselves were not the intended enemy -- a distinction it appears to be threatening to abandon.
Among the sites hit in downtown Tehran was a historic synagogue, according to Iranian media.
Homayoun Sameyah, the Jewish community's representative in Iran's parliament, told state media that the building was "ancient" and "sacred," and that Torah scrolls remained buried under the rubble.
Trump had earlier warned that the "the entire country" of Iran "could be taken out in one night."
Speaking in Budapest on April 7 after meeting Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, US Vice President JD Vance said the administration had largely achieved its military goals in the campaign and that he was "confident" Washington will get a response from Tehran before the deadline expires.
Meanwhile, Iran struck Tel Aviv, with Israeli television reporting around 10 impact sites across the city causing damage to buildings and vehicles. No injuries were recorded.
The Israeli military accused Iran of using cluster munitions -- weapons that disperse into smaller submunitions, or bomblets, in midair and are nearly impossible to intercept with conventional air defenses. The southern port city of Eilat was also targeted with cluster munitions, according to media reports.
Iran Rejects Cease-Fire Proposal
Trump’s warning on April 6 centered on Iran's control of the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for global oil shipments.
Iran's response fell short of what Washington demanded.
Tehran submitted a 10-point peace proposal through Pakistani mediators, but the plan rejected a temporary cease-fire and instead called for a permanent end to hostilities. It also included conditions unlikely to be acceptable to the United States or Israel.
Iran's defiance was on open display.
Mahdi Mohammadi, a senior adviser to Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, posted on X that Iran had "clearly and openly won the war" and would only accept an outcome that established "a new security order in the region."
He added: "It is Trump who has around 20 hours to surrender to Iran or his allies will be sent back to the Stone Age. We will not back down!"
Following a call by a senior official from Iran's Sports and Youth Ministry for people to form "human chains" around power plants, Iranian media outlets including official news agency IRNA reported that gatherings took place outside plants in several cities, as well as on at least one bridge, and published images of people standing shoulder-to-shoulder holding placards and the national flag. It was unclear how many people participated and whether any had been coerced or given incentives to take part.
The Wall Street Journal, citing unnamed Middle Eastern officials, reported hours before the deadline set by Trump that Iran had cut off direct communications with the United States over his threat to destroy Iran's "whole civilization" but that talks with cease-fire mediators continued.
Asked by a journalist whether he expected Iran to "come to the table," US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said, "Hope we have more news later today on that."
The threat to Iranian infrastructure is drawing warnings from inside the country.
Mahdi Masaeli, secretary of Iran's electricity industry syndicate, said on April 7 that attacks on power plants, transmission lines, or substations could trigger "widespread blackouts."
While Iran's grid -- with a capacity of around 100,000 megawatts against current consumption of less than half that -- has some capacity to reroute power, Masaeli warned that serious damage would be a "turning point" in the conflict.
"The problems would not double," he said. "They would grow exponentially."
Previous strikes have already disrupted key industrial sectors.
Attacks on the Mobarakeh Steel complex have affected steel output, while strikes on the Bandar Emam petrochemical facility have hit production of PVC and cable materials, with black market activity emerging as a result, Masaeli said.
With reporting by RFE/RL Washington correspondent Alex Raufoglu, Reuters, and DPA
Ex-White House Adviser Sees Rising Risks As Trump's Iran Deadline Looms
WASHINGTON -- With a US ultimatum set to expire, President Donald Trump has warned Iran that its infrastructure could be struck within hours if it does not comply with his demands, particularly reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Tehran has rejected short-term cease-fire proposals, demanding a permanent end to hostilities and guarantees against future attacks.
RFE/RL spoke with Nate Swanson, former Iran director at the White House National Security Council who is now at the Atlantic Council, about the escalating crisis and prospects for diplomacy as Trump's deadline of 8 p.m. Eastern Time on April 7 looms.
RFE/RL: The US president has issued a stark ultimatum, warning Iran's infrastructure could face massive strikes within hours if key demands aren't met. How realistic is such a rapid, large-scale disruption of Iran's decentralized systems, and how much of this is strategic signaling rather than operational capability?
Nate Swanson: My assessment is that this is primarily being done for psychological reasons, to extract concessions from Iran and force some form of agreement.
I can't speak definitively on whether the US could hit all those targets in such a short time frame, but Iran's infrastructure is highly decentralized. There are dozens of separate power systems, transportation nodes, and other critical networks. The idea of neutralizing every bridge or key node within a matter of hours seems implausible.
This fits a broader pattern: threatening maximum consequences to generate leverage.
So far, "maximum pressure" has not fundamentally altered Iranian decision-making or forced capitulation. I don't see clear evidence that even this level of escalation would change their calculus, but ultimately that's a decision for Iran's leadership.
RFE/RL: We're also hearing about diplomatic efforts. Pakistan has floated a two-tier framework, the so-called Islamabad Accord, proposing a 45-day cease-fire followed by a comprehensive deal. What are Iran's key red lines, and is there any middle ground?
Swanson: Iran is looking for guarantees that this war won't simply restart in a few months. They want assurance that a cease-fire is permanent, not temporary. That's why they are rejecting short-term language and pushing for fundamentally different terms.
The second component is economic. Iran is seeking to benefit from its control of the Strait of Hormuz. They refer to this as reparations, but in practice it could take a number of forms -- essentially formalizing a mechanism through which they derive ongoing economic concessions tied to the waterway.
What has changed in recent days is that Iran appears increasingly confident, perhaps overly so, about what it can achieve. Their demands have expanded to include broader regional issues such as hostilities in Lebanon, which were not previously central to their position. That raises the bar significantly and makes a near-term deal much less likely.
The US is focused on moving forward quickly, while Iran places significant weight on historical grievances..."Nate Swanson
RFE/RL: There have been leadership changes inside Iran. Is there evidence of a pragmatic faction emerging, or are hard-liners consolidating control?
Swanson: The system is extremely opaque. Even for those who follow Iran closely, it's very difficult to determine who is actually making decisions or how authority is distributed at any given moment.
That said, hard-liners are clearly emboldened.
Certain figures have gained influence in recent developments, and the overall trajectory points toward stronger hard-line participation in decision-making. Whether this amounts to a full consolidation of power is still unclear, it's simply too early to say. These kinds of transitions typically unfold over time.
RFE/RL: Trump suggested Iranians might be willing to endure infrastructure losses in exchange for freedom. Is that your assessment?
Swanson: Iranian society is not monolithic. There are certainly people who want the regime to collapse, and there are others who strongly support it. A significant portion of the population falls somewhere in between and is primarily focused on day-to-day survival.
My expectations for mass mobilization are low. While some segments may support continued pressure, many others simply want the conflict to end. It's very difficult to generalize, and I wouldn't assume a unified response from the population.
Calling for uprisings in the current environment is extremely risky. Protests have been brutally suppressed, and there have been no meaningful defections from the security apparatus. Encouraging people to take to the streets could put lives at risk without producing tangible outcomes.
In the longer term, the focus should be on influencing the decision-making of Iran's leadership. Whoever governs Iran needs to understand that their choices will determine whether the country stabilizes and prospers or remains isolated and in conflict.
RFE/RL: You said earlier that Tehran views the current situation as a continuation of the June 2025 war, while the United States treats it more as a fresh starting point. For Iran, this is essentially a fight for survival. How does this fundamental disconnect in perspective affect the prospects for a diplomatic breakthrough?
Both European and Gulf partners are already reassessing their positions and recalibrating their relationships with both the US and Iran.Nate Swanson
Swanson: It's a major obstacle. The US is focused on moving forward quickly, while Iran places significant weight on historical grievances and past actions.
There's also a deep lack of trust, especially given the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal and subsequent developments. That makes negotiations much more difficult.
Since the June 2025 conflict, Iran's position has hardened considerably. There is far less flexibility, and the leadership appears more focused on preparing for sustained confrontation than on compromise.
RFE/RL: Has control over the strait become the central bargaining chip?
Swanson: Yes. Iran now effectively has a fourth pillar in its security strategy: control of the Strait of Hormuz.
This is extremely significant. It directly affects global commerce and US interests. In some ways, it has become even more consequential than other elements, such as proxy forces, which are increasingly seen as liabilities.
That represents a major shift and gives Iran a new, very powerful source of leverage.
RFE/RL: If the conflict continues for a prolonged period, what would that mean for the unity of countries aligned against Iran? Do you expect US allies to remain aligned, or could they begin pursuing separate arrangements with Tehran?
Swanson: There's a real risk of divergence. Both European and Gulf partners are already reassessing their positions and recalibrating their relationships with both the US and Iran.
In the short term, alignment largely holds. But the longer the conflict continues, the greater the pressure on these countries to pursue their own interests, including the possibility of separate arrangements with Tehran.
We're already seeing subtle shifts -- both in Europe and among Gulf states -- and those differences are likely to become more pronounced over time if the conflict continues.
The interview has been edited for length and clarity.
As War Persists, Trump Calls On Iran To 'Make A Deal Before It Is Too Late'
The US-Israeli war with Iran showed no signs of slowing down on April 2, with reports of air strikes hitting a major Iranian bridge and killing a senior Iranian commander, while US President Donald Trump urged Tehran to "make a deal before it is too late."
The new strikes came a day after Trump's TV address to the nation, in which he threatened to bomb Iran "back to the stone ages" and "hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks."
In response, Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf wrote a defiant message on social media: "Iranians don't just talk about defending their country, we bleed for it. We've done it before, and we're ready to do it again.... Bring it on." An Iranian military spokesman warned of "broader and more destructive" attacks to come.
But reports from official Iranian sources highlighted the ongoing cost of the war to Iran. A major new highway bridge, not yet operational, was damaged and Mohammad Ali Fathalizadeh, a brigadier general of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), was killed in a separate attack, the reports said.
Images on social media showed significant damage to the B1 bridge, which is on a road linking Tehran to Karaj in the Alborz Province and has been described by Iranian media outlets as the highest bridge in the Middle East.
"The biggest bridge in Iran comes tumbling down, never to be used again -- Much more to follow!" Trump wrote in a post on his Truth Social platform. "IT IS TIME FOR IRAN TO MAKE A DEAL BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE, AND THERE IS NOTHING LEFT OF WHAT STILL COULD BECOME A GREAT COUNTRY!"
A local official later said eight people were killed and 95 injured in two rounds of attacks on the bridge, Iranian media reported. The account could not be independently verified.
Elsewhere, images on social media showed plumes of smoke at the international airport in Mashhad, a city in northeast Iran, on April 2.
Amid ongoing combat, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced it had struck a "ballistic missile storage site belonging to the missile unit in the Tabriz area."
Israel was also hit. Emergency services reported rocket fire from Iran's Lebanon-based Hezbollah proxy group that caused shrapnel injuries to an 85-year-old Israeli man and a 34-year-old foreign worker.
In the Persian Gulf, a spokesman for the Saudi Defense Ministry said four drones and a ballistic missile launched from Iran had been intercepted, while the United Arab Emirates said it had "engaged 19 ballistic missiles and 26 UAVs launched from Iran."
The US government issued a warning to its citizens in Iraq, saying that "Iraqi terrorist militia groups aligned with Iran may intend to conduct attacks in central Baghdad in the next 24-48 hours."
The Mood In Iran
Ruslan Suleymanov, a Middle East expert at the London- and Washington-based NEST Center think tank who recently visited Iran amid US and Israeli air strikes, told Current Time he had observed a wide range of attitudes among the Iranian people and that there are currently both supporters and opponents of the regime.
"The opponents are in the majority. But even the opponents of the regime don't fully understand where this war is heading," he said on April 2.
The Iranian authorities appeared to be tightening an already brutal crackdown on its opponents, as prominent rights activist Nasrin Sotoudeh was arrested at her home in Tehran last night, her daughter said on Instagram.
This news came after it was reported that Iran had executed an 18-year-old man, Amirhossein Hatami, arrested during mass protests in January.
Meanwhile the health of Iranian Nobel Peace Prize winner Narges Mohammadi has significantly deteriorated in prison, according to her husband, Taghi Rahmani.
Rahmani spoke with RFE/RL's Radio Farda by telephone on April 1 from Paris, where he is based.
The Strait Of Hormuz
On the diplomatic front, British Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper condemned Iran's "recklessness" for stopping nearly all shipping through the Strait of Hormuz -- causing global economic chaos as flows of oil, gas, and other vital commodities have come to a halt.
"Alongside today’s discussions, we are also convening military planners to look at how we marshal our collective defensive military capabilities, including looking at issues such as de-mining or reassurance once the conflict eases,” she told an online conference convened by London.
The roughly 40 countries attending the conference did not include the United States, which has called on its allies to secure the strait.
"Today, we looked at diplomatic, economic, and security measures to restore safe passage, alongside working with the shipping industry," European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas wrote on X after the meeting, which produced no formal agreement.
The strait "is a global public good. Iran cannot be allowed to charge countries a bounty to let ships pass. International law doesn’t recognize pay-to-pass schemes," she wrote.
Kallas also said the EU naval mission in the Red Sea, Aspides, "must be scaled up," adding, "We cannot afford to lose another critical trade route."
Iran, meanwhile, said it was drafting monitoring rules with Oman, which lies across the strait, and current UN Security Council chair Bahrain presented the 15-member group with a new draft of a resolution aimed to protect shipping through the waterway.
"We are developing a protocol for Iran and Oman to monitor passage and navigation through the Strait of Hormuz," Iran's official news agency, IRNA, quoted Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi as saying. There was no immediate comment from Oman.
Bahraini Foreign Minister Abdullatif bin Rashid Al Zayani told the Security Council that country was hoping for a vote on April 3 on the resolution. It would authorize "all necessary means" to protect commercial shipping while specifying that such steps should be "defensive in nature."
To pass, a Security Council resolution needs at least nine yes votes and no veto from any of the permanent members: The United States, Russia, Britain, France, and China, which has signaled its opposition to any authorization of the use of force.
In comments at a Kremlin meeting with the Egyptian foreign minister, Russian President Vladimir Putin said "we all hope that this conflict will be resolved as quickly as possible. President Trump spoke about this yesterday. I repeat, we, for our part, are ready to do everything possible to bring the situation back to normal."
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov spokes to his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araqchi, about the war and the situation surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, the Russian ministry said. Putin's foreign policy aide Yury Ushakov said on state TV that the strait is "open to us."
In China, which like Russia has close ties to Iran, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning responded to Trump's speech by calling on all sides to cease military operations, while also criticizing Washington.
"The root cause of obstruction to navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is the illegal military actions by the United States and Israel against Iran. Only through a cease-fire and the achievement of peace and stability in the Gulf region can the security and smooth operation of international shipping lanes be fundamentally safeguarded," she told a news conference.
China has presented a five-point plan with Pakistan, calling for an immediate cease-fire and talks.
Pakistan has emerged as a potential key mediator for passing messages between the United States and Iran, which have presented wildly different visions for peace.
'The Key Question'
Tehran is demanding, among other things, reparations and recognition of its control over the Strait of Hormuz. Washington's plan has not been made public but is believed to include a demand that Iran will agree to not develop nuclear weapons, limits on Iran's missile capabilities, and an end to Iran's support for regional proxy forces.
Trump has said Iran is "begging to make a deal" while Iran has denied any talks are taking place.
Kamal Kharrazi, a former Iranian foreign minister believed to be involved in contact with Pakistani mediators was reported to have been seriously injured in an air strike overnight. Kharrazi was taken to a hospital while his wife died in the attack.
"Reports of diplomatic contacts alongside the targeting of figures such as Kamal Kharrazi, believed to have been linked to potential negotiations, have fueled speculation that cease-fire pathways may be actively disrupted by Israel," Hamidreza Azizi, a visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, wrote on social media.
"This reinforces Iranian narratives that the Israeli side seeks to prolong the war," he added.
Meanwhile, the prospect of the war continuing for at least a few more weeks saw oil prices again rising and stock markets showing mixed results.
Speaking to Reuters news agency, Russel Chesler, head of investments and capital markets at VanEck Australia, summed up the mood.
"The key question in all investors' minds is 'When is this going to be over?'" he said.
With reporting by Reuters and Interfax
Trump Says US Near 'Finishing the Job' in Iran, But Vows 'Two To Three Weeks' Of More War
WASHINGTON -- US President Donald Trump on April 1 said the United States is close to "finishing the job" in Iran, while warning that US forces will continue to strike the country "extremely hard" for another "two to three weeks."
In his first address to the nation since the start of the conflict, Trump said US objectives were "nearing completion" after weeks of what he described as "swift, decisive, overwhelming victories on the battlefield -- victories like few people have ever seen before."
"As we speak this evening, it has been just one month since the United States military began Operation Epic Fury," he said.
Trump outlined what he said were major battlefield gains, claiming Iran's military capabilities had been severely degraded.
"Tonight, Iran's navy is gone. Their air force is in ruins," he said, adding that Iranian leadership figures "are now dead" and that command structures were being "decimated as we speak."
He said Iran's missile and drone capabilities had been "dramatically curtailed" and that weapons infrastructure was being destroyed. "Never in the history of warfare has an enemy suffered such clear and devastating large-scale losses in a matter of weeks," Trump claimed.
Trump defended the war as necessary to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
"This murderous regime also recently killed 45,000 of their own people," he said, referring to the crackdown on protests inside Iran.
"For these terrorists to have nuclear weapons would be an intolerable threat," he added.
He repeated his claim that Iran was "right at the doorstep" of acquiring a nuclear weapon and said its missile program could eventually threaten the United States, Europe, and other regions.
"This situation has been going on for 47 years and should have been handled long before I arrived in office," he said, again criticizing previous administrations, including the nuclear deal negotiated under President Barack Obama.
Trump also said that while "my first preference was always the path of diplomacy," Iran had rejected efforts to reach an agreement.
Trump said regime change "was not our goal," but suggested it had effectively occurred. "Their leaders…are now dead," he said.
He said he hoped to secure an agreement but warned of further escalation: "If there is no deal, we are going to hit each and every one of their electric generating plants very hard."
"We have all the cards," Trump added. "They have none."
Trump acknowledged rising gasoline prices, saying the increase was "entirely the result" of Iranian attacks on commercial shipping and neighboring countries, and described it as temporary.
He also said the United States is "totally independent of the Middle East" for energy but remains involved to support allies.
At the same time, he criticized partners for not contributing more and said they should take responsibility for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Ahead of the speech, senior Democrats including Gregory Meeks of New York, Adam Smith of Washington, and Jim Himes of Connecticut issued a statement claiming Trump was "no closer to achieving his ill-defined goals."
They cited the deaths of 13 US service members, hundreds injured, and wider regional and economic impacts. "We urge the president to immediately negotiate a cease-fire with Iran and work toward finding a diplomatic solution," they said, warning of a "catastrophic war."
Analysts See Messaging -- And Risks
Analysts told RFE/RL the speech was aimed at shaping public perception while leaving uncertainty about next steps.
Jason Brodsky, policy director at United Against Nuclear Iran, said the address was meant to "rally public support around Operation Epic Fury."
"It will be cast as not the US starting another endless war but ending one that the Iranian regime started in 1979," he said.
But he warned that even if the United States declares a cease-fire in two to three weeks, "there is a risk the Iranians will continue attacks as their imperative is rebuilding deterrence."
"To change that calculus, the US may have to escalate," he added.
Matthew Bartlett, a Republican strategist and former State Department appointee in the first Trump administration, said the speech was directed at multiple audiences.
"Communication is critical in a war with audiences here on the home front, as well as with the regime in Iran, with the great people of Iran and our allies in the region, in Europe, and beyond," Bartlett told RFE/RL.
He added that while the address was necessary, "there are still many more unanswered questions about tomorrow and days and months in the future," and that "while this could wind down, the chance for escalation stands."
Bartlett said Trump appears to be trying to highlight military achievements while also setting conditions for a potential diplomatic phase, including addressing economic disruptions such as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Gregory Brew, a senior analyst at Eurasia Group, told RFE/RL ahead of the speech that Trump was likely to emphasize both success and the need for continued operations.
Trump earlier said he was not concerned about Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium, arguing it is buried underground and can be monitored.
However, experts say that if Iran retains control of its estimated 440 kilograms of highly enriched uranium, it could be closer to producing nuclear weapons than under a previously discussed negotiated settlement.
- By Ray Furlong
How Iran's Hormuz Blockade Chokes Global Trade Beyond Oil And Gas
When an Indian tanker carrying liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) passed through the Strait of Hormuz recently, its progress was followed by excited live TV news coverage.
“Its position was received eight minutes ago. It’s currently at 12.5 knots and is moving at 154 degrees. It’s reported ETA in India is at 9.30 p.m. tomorrow,” reported one journalist, providing running commentary while following a tracker app.
Later, videos showed the ship with a military escort from the Indian Navy in the Gulf of Oman.
The attention was not unwarranted. The war in Iran, and Tehran’s decision to largely close the Strait of Hormuz, have not only stopped supplies of crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG). Shipments of a whole range of other vital commodities have also almost completely ground to a halt.
Even if the war ends, markets may not return to normal quickly. Iranian attacks have caused untold damage to industrial infrastructure in the region. Iran is also insisting that it has a “sovereign right” over the strait, though Washington says reopening the waterway is a condition for a cease-fire.
LPG
LPG is the refined product most affected by the Hormuz blockade, according to the latest monthly report by the International Energy Agency (IEA). It’s a mix of propane, butane, and other gases used in heating appliances, cooking devices, automobile fuel, and refrigerators.
A shortage of the product in India has made international headlines, forcing people to cook on alternatives, including coal, firewood, and cow dung. India gets about 90 percent of its LPG imports from the Middle East, and the shortages have affected hundreds of millions of people.
But the damage goes beyond India.
“China was the second largest importer of LPG via the Strait of Hormuz in 2025, second only to India, as it looked to diversify supply sources away from the US in light of trade tensions between the pair last year,” Peter Wilton, an analyst at Argus, a commodity market intelligence company, told RFE/RL.
Wilton noted that domestic LPG prices in China were at a 12-year high as of April 1. China gets much of its LPG from Iran, for both household consumption and its petrochemical industry. It is “vulnerable” to the global LPG crunch according to Argus analysis.
Aside from the United States and Persian Gulf countries, other exporters include Canada, Argentina, and Russia -- which has diverted sales to Central Asian countries following European Union sanctions imposed on it due to Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Fertilizer
While some wrestle with the shortage of cooking fuel, there may also be a lack of food to heat up.
The Persian Gulf region is also a major supplier of fertilizers, and the UN World Food Program is sounding the alarm.
“Countries that rely heavily on imported food, fuel, and fertilizers are especially exposed to global price shocks. In parts of sub-Saharan Africa, farmers entering planting season risk being unable to treat their crops, resulting in lower yields and higher food prices in the months ahead,” it said in a March 19 report.
“Even small increases in costs can push vulnerable families into crisis,” it added, warning of “record levels of hunger.”
The UN says some 30 percent of global fertilizer trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
Data from Windward, a maritime intelligence company, reinforced the concern. It noted that 86 percent of ships carrying fertilizers from the Persian Gulf to East Africa had ceased operations.
An analysis by ING said “surging fertilizer prices” would lead to reduced global wheat and corn production.
“Although most Northern Hemisphere producers remain adequately supplied ahead of spring planting, a prolonged crisis could influence planting decisions later in the year. Fertilizer-dependent regions in Asia and Africa are particularly vulnerable,” it added.
Critically, 50 percent of all global sulfur shipments also pass through the Strait of Hormuz. As a byproduct of oil and gas processing, sulfur is an essential ingredient in phosphate fertilizer production.
Another key ingredient is potash. Russia is the world’s second-largest producer of the product, claiming one-fifth of global exports and is looking to exploit the market opportunity presented by the Strait of Hormuz closure.
Belarus is the third-largest producer, and Washington has just lifted sanctions on its potash. But this is not expected to impact global markets.
Aluminum
Iranian attacks on massive aluminum smelters in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain have added to global supply headaches already caused by the Hormuz blockade.
The extent of the damage is not clear, but it raises the prospect of ongoing supply risks even if shipping through the strait returns to prewar levels.
“Any prolonged outage would further tighten an already constrained market, where restarting smelters is costly, complex, and time-consuming,” an ING analysis noted on March 31.
Aluminum is a vital commodity used in cars and packaging. The United States imports more than a fifth of its aluminum from the Persian Gulf. The Gulf countries account for nearly 10 percent of global supply.
“I would not say that loss can be easily absorbed at all. What you have to take into account is that more than half of global production is in China and all of that material is consumed in China. By contrast over 80 percent of Gulf aluminum is exported, so it is a hugely critical supplier,” Ronan Murphy, editor of Argus Non-Ferrous Markets, told RFE/RL.
Aluminum prices have risen by about 11 percent since US and Israeli air strikes on Iran began on February 28, he added, "to the highest level since March 2022, immediately after the Ukraine war broke out."
Helium
Roughly a third of the world’s helium supply comes from Qatar and is vital as a coolant for products such as semiconductors and MRI scanners.
While prices may have risen, key Asian producers have so far said they have enough stocks for the near term. South Korean Energy Minister Kim Jung-Kwan said on March 31 that disruptions in supplies were not expected for the next two months. Taiwan has made a similar statement.
But the issue with Helium may be long term. Damage from an Iranian attack on Qatar’s LNG facilities, which are also used for helium production, could take up to five years to fully repair, according to the Qatari authorities.
Other helium producers include the United States, the world’s biggest, plus Algeria and Russia, whose exports have been hit by US and EU sanctions.
These are some but not all of the items shipped from the Persian Gulf to markets around the world. Others include naphta, a refined petroleum product used in the petrochemical industry, jet fuels, and iron ore pellet supply.
China, Pakistan Plan Focuses On Iran War Cease-Fire, Opening Strait of Hormuz
China and Pakistan have launched a coordinated diplomatic push to end the fighting in Iran and stabilize one of the world's most critical energy corridors, positioning themselves at the forefront of efforts to de-escalate a war that has shaken global markets and maritime security.
The five-point initiative, announced on March 31 after high-level talks in Beijing between China's top diplomat Wang Yi and Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, calls for an immediate cease-fire, the swift start of peace negotiations, and urgent steps to safeguard commercial shipping routes, particularly through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.
In a joint statement, Beijing and Islamabad urged "the immediate cessation of hostilities" and warned against further escalation that could expand the conflict beyond Iran.
The statement stressed that "utmost efforts" must be made "to prevent the conflict from spreading," underscoring fears that additional regional and global actors could be drawn in.
The proposal comes amid mounting concern over disruptions to maritime traffic in the Gulf, where the Strait of Hormuz serves as a key artery for global oil supplies. Any prolonged instability there risks intensifying economic shocks far beyond the region.
Asked about the China-Pakistan initiative in a brief March 31 phone interview with Axios, US President Donald Trump told the outlet that diplomatic "negotiations with Iran are going well" without specifying.
Pakistan has also signaled its willingness to play a mediating role. Over the weekend, Islamabad said it was prepared to host talks between the United States and Iran, following discussions among regional diplomats aimed at bringing both sides closer to the negotiating table.
Dar's visit to Beijing followed a separate round of talks he hosted on March 29 with counterparts from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey, part of a broader regional push to contain a conflict triggered by US-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28.
While China remains a key partner of Iran, it has refrained from offering military support, instead consistently calling for restraint and a negotiated resolution.
Tehran, for its part, has publicly denied engaging in direct talks with Washington, though some reports suggest it has conveyed a response to Trump's proposed 15-point peace framework through Pakistani intermediaries.
On March 26, Dar said Islamabad has been serving as a conduit for message exchanges between Washington and Tehran.
The deepening coordination between China and Pakistan highlights their close strategic partnership, even as Beijing continues to urge restraint in Islamabad's own regional tensions, including its relationship with Afghanistan.
Separately, China's Foreign Ministry confirmed that a special envoy recently spent a week mediating between Pakistan and Afghanistan, reflecting Beijing's broader effort to position itself as a stabilizing diplomatic force across the region.
With reporting by dpa, Axios, and AFP
- By RFE/RL
Trump Says Iran War May End Soon, Warns Of NATO Exit
US President Donald Trump has said the United States could end its war with Iran soon while reserving the option for limited future strikes.
Speaking hours before he was scheduled to make a primetime address to the nation on April 1, Trump told Reuters that "we're going to be out pretty quickly" after being asked when the US would consider the conflict to be over.
While he said "I can't tell you exactly" when the war would end, he argued that a primary objective had already been achieved as US military action had neutralized Iran’s nuclear capacity.
"They won't have a nuclear weapon because they are incapable of that now, and then I'll leave, and I'll take everybody with me," he said. "And if we have to we'll come back to do spot hits."
Trump said separately on social media that Iran had asked for a truce but that he would not consider it until Tehran ceased blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a major fuel shipment route.
In a post on his Truth Social platform, Trump said "Iran’s New Regime President" had "just asked the United States of America for a CEASEFIRE!"
"We will consider when Hormuz Strait is open, free, and clear," he added. "Until then, we are blasting Iran into oblivion or, as they say, back to the Stone Ages!!!"
Iran later denied Trump's claim, state television reported, citing the Foreign Ministry.
"Trump's statements about Iran's request for a cease-fire are false and baseless," Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei was quoted as saying.
"Messages have been received through intermediaries, including Pakistan, but there is no direct negotiation with the US," said Baqaei, who accused Washington of making "maximalist and irrational" demands.
In an open letter published shortly afterward, President Masud Pezeshkian said Iran “harbors no enmity toward other nations, including the people of America,” and rejected portrayals of the country as a threat, calling them “neither consistent with historical reality nor with present-day observable facts.”
Washington has long maintained that Iran’s nuclear ambitions and regional activities pose a serious security threat, and continues to press Tehran to curb both as a condition for any peace deal.
Trump also told Reuters that he would use his nationwide speech on April 1 to say he was "absolutely" considering withdrawing the United States from NATO for what he considers the alliance's lack of support for US objectives in Iran.
His remarks echoed comments he made earlier in an interview with the British newspaper The Telegraph, where he called the military alliance a “paper tiger” and said leaving NATO was “beyond reconsideration.”
The interview, published on April 1, came hours after Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that "unfortunately" the Trump administration will have to "reexamine the value of NATO and that alliance for our country."
"I was never swayed by NATO. I always knew they were a paper tiger, and Putin knows that too, by the way." Trump said.
Trump and other US officials have repeatedly questioned the value of the alliance if the United States cannot freely use bases in allied countries to defend its own interests.
Media reports this week claimed that Spain and Italy -- both NATO members -- had denied permission for US military aircraft to use their air bases for military operations in Iran.
The US administration has also been critical of the reluctance of NATO members to send war ships to break up Iran’s de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway used to transport about 20 percent of the world's oil and gas.
Several European allies have refused to get directly involved in the US-Israeli war with Iran, which has seen daily air strikes launched on the Middle Easter country. Tehran has responded by firing missiles and launching drones at targets around the Middle East, escalating fears of a widening conflict.
Some of NATO’s key members reacted sharply to Trump’s comments, defending the alliance and its actions.
When asked about Trump’s interview, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said: “Firstly, NATO is the single most effective military alliance the world has ever seen, and it has kept us safe for many decades, and we are fully committed to NATO.”
“Secondly, that whatever the pressure on me and others, whatever the noise, I’m going to act in the British national interest in all the decisions that I make…And that’s why I’ve been absolutely clear that this is not our war and we’re not going to get dragged into it.
A German government spokesperson also reaffirmed Berlin's commitment to the alliance, while Alice Rufo, the minister delegate to France’s defense minister, told a conference on April 1 that NATO is “a military alliance concerned with the security of the Euro-Atlantic region. It is not designed to carry out operations in the Strait of Hormuz, which would be a breach of international law.”
Starmer announced that the UK will convene talks with about 35 countries this week on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and that the meeting would "consider all feasible diplomatic and political measures to restore freedom of navigation, ensure the safety of stranded ships and seafarers, and resume the movement of vital goods."
He added that military planners would also be engaged to "make the Strait accessible and secure after the fighting ends."
Rubio struck a more optimistic chord on the war itself, saying the "finish line" is in sight.
In an interview on Fox News Channel's Hannity show on March 31, he said that "there are talks going on" to end the war, with the possibility of a "direct meeting at some point."
"We can see the finish line. It's not today, it's not tomorrow, but it is coming," he said, but did not elaborate.
Prospects for a deal to end the war, which began on February 28, have grown in recent days.
Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian said late on March 31 that his country has the "necessary will" to end the conflict with the United States and Israel depending on conditions such as security guarantees.
The United States said last week it put forward a 15-point plan that includes Iran dismantling its nuclear facilities, limiting its missile capabilities, and ending its support for regional proxy forces.
Trump said on March 31 that the fighting could end in two to three weeks, further buoying sentiment that a settlement is within reach.
"There are messages being exchanged, there are talks going on. There is the potential for a direct meeting at some point," Rubio told Fox News.
With reporting by Reuters and AFP
With Israeli Strike On A Caspian Port, Iran War Could Endanger Russia's Trade Route With Tehran
For years, the Caspian Sea was the safe zone of the alliance between Russia and Iran -- a landlocked black hole invisible to Western eyes.
While the inland waterway has served as a sanctuary for Iranian drones bound for the battlefields of Ukraine in Moscow's ongoing full-scale invasion, Israel recently launched air strikes on Bandar Anzali, an Iranian naval outpost on the Caspian.
Growing media reports based on intelligence say the corridor is now being used to transfer Russian-produced weaponry back to the Middle East, bringing Israeli air strikes closer to Moscow's backyard.
Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022, the Caspian Sea has served as a key corridor between two Western-sanctioned states. It links Russian ports such as Astrakhan with northern Iran, including Bandar Anzali, before cargo moves onward by rail or road toward the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean.
Intelligence groups have previously reported on vessels from Russia's so-called shadow fleet operating along this corridor under Iranian and Russian flags, linked to the smuggling of sanctioned oil and weapons between the two countries.
Many of these vessels have switched off their tracking signals, raising suspicions that they are carrying sanctioned goods or military cargo.
In 2024, the United States sanctioned two Russian shipping companies for transporting drone-related equipment and munitions across the Caspian Sea for use in Ukraine.
Evolving Cooperation
The recent strikes on Bandar Anzali on March 18 have come amid signs that military cooperation between Russia and Iran may be evolving.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told CNN on March 15 that Iran is hitting American bases with drones made and transferred by the Russians.
Western intelligence, cited by the Financial Times, says Russia may now be sending drones to Iran.
The Institute for War said that the Israeli forces' air strikes on Bandar Anzali earlier this month follow reports that Russia is providing Iran with Russian-produced and possibly modified Shahed drones.
Tel Aviv And Moscow
Israel announced at the time that its fighter jets had struck targets at an Iranian Navy port and base facilities where dozens of military vessels, including missile ships and guard boats, were stationed.
"If Russian interests are somehow impacted, destroyed, the Israelis are not going to scream about it because they do want to maintain cordial ties with the Russians," Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute in Washington, told RFE/RL.
Russia would view any spillover of the Iran conflict into the Caspian Sea "extremely negatively," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said of the March 18 attack.
Being a landlocked body of water, the Caspian Sea has been widely seen as outside the reach of US and Western navies. It is bordered by Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan -- countries that have generally maintained balanced relations with Moscow.
"Our research 'largely' excludes the Caspian Sea, as the lack of regional cooperation with Western authorities makes it a closed environment where monitoring is both impractical and currently of lower priority for global enforcement," Benjamin Hilgenstock, a sanctions expert at the Kyiv-based KSE institute, told RFE/RL.
Caspian Trade On The Rise
Iran and Russia also exchange food goods via the Caspian Sea. Grain trade between Iran and Russia was halted immediately following the attack but resumed afterward, according to Reuters.
Russia, the world's largest grain exporter, has been enhancing Caspian Sea export logistics in recent years, targeting markets in Iran, Persian Gulf countries, Iraq, and Afghanistan.
"Even if this route is disturbed, there are other ways for Iran and Russia to trade," Dalga Khatinoglu, an expert on Iran's energy and macroeconomics, told RFE/RL.
The Caspian segment is part of the International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC), a 7,200-kilometer network of shipping, rail, and road routes for transporting freight between India, Iran, Azerbaijan, Russia, Central Asia, and Europe.
Isolated from the West, both Iran and Russia harbor long-term plans to expand trade via the Caspian Sea.
Russia–Iran cargo turnover via the Caspian Sea could double in 2026 to reach 10 million tons, according to Aleksandr Sharov, director of the RusIranExpo Group.
"Both Tehran and Moscow hope that the US will keep the Israelis from repeating their attack on the Caspian coast," Paul Goble, a longtime expert on Eurasia at the Jamestown Foundation, told RFE/RL.
"There is no reporting that suggests that the Caspian region would soon become such a stage. We are still talking about ground troops in the south, potentially the Americans going in the south, not in the north," Vatanka told RFE/RL.
"However, if they discover based on intelligence that, for example, Iran is producing drones or missiles in a town somewhere in the north, in the Caspian region, then obviously that place will become a target. Those are operational, logistical reasons, not a strategic" approach, he adds.
What China's Xi Is Learning From War In Iran
The war in Iran is giving Beijing a real-time window into how the United States wages modern war.
The war has shown the reach of US military power while also raising questions about Washington's ability to manage multiple crises at once. For Beijing, that combination could influence how it assesses risk, timing, and opportunity in any future confrontation with the United States and any kind of future scenario toward Taiwan, a self-governing island of 23 million that China claims as its own.
To better understand what China may be learning from Iran, RFE/RL spoke with Mick Ryan, a retired Australian major general and military strategist who is now a senior fellow at the Lowly Institute, an Australian think tank.
RFE/RL: What is the biggest lesson that Chinese President Xi Jinping has learned so far from the war in Iran since it started in late February?
Mick Ryan: There are many lessons, but the biggest one that Xi has probably learned is that the US military is still a very powerful organization. It can deploy overwhelming force and conduct sustained precision operations, at least from the air and from the sea for some time. That will be very important for him and the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to understand if they're ever going to undertake some kind of blockade or invasion of Taiwan.
RFE/RL: War is part of a wider environment, so if we're speaking about lessons Xi might be drawing from the war in Iran, how should this one about US military power be seen in the wider context?
Ryan: Notwithstanding the US military's very powerful capability, it's being used by an administration that really is only able to fight one war at a time.
I think the attention span of the administration only allows it to do that, but it's stripped out many of the normal decision support mechanisms that would come through the National Security Council. These decisions look to be being made much more on impulse, and as we've seen from the meandering set of different strategic objectives from this war, it's an administration that is OK with launching something like this without necessarily knowing what it wants from this kind of large-scale conflict.
RFE/RL: How might that then apply toward something like Taiwan? How might that inform their preparations, or what they're going to be doing next in the coming years?
Ryan: I think this shows the Chinese that if they have a better strategy in place, they do have an improved chance of success. Being good at military operations is important. If you can't win battles, then you can't win wars. But strategy is even more important, and having the right strategic assumptions and the right strategic decision mechanisms for executing that strategy is something the Chinese might think that they're better at than the United States at the moment. A strategy gap when you're planning for a war and executing a war can be a real advantage.
RFE/RL: You spoke about some impulsiveness coming out of Washington. For Beijing, I imagine that's something that can cut both ways?
Ryan: Yeah, absolutely. It's obviously a double-edged sword.
As Americans would understand, General Stonewall Jackson was a great example of an unpredictable leader from the US Civil War. He was known for an unpredictability that hurt the enemy, but it also sometimes hurt his own forces. I think US President Donald Trump is very much in the same mold.
He is very unpredictable, and the Chinese are uneasy about that unpredictability. Trump is very unlike any of his predecessors, and the Chinese can't really war game what his reaction to any kind of event might be because he just really is all over the place when it comes to his responses. That will, more than anything, probably induce caution in Xi and the PLA just because of the deep uncertainty they probably feel with Trump's decision making.
RFE/RL: We're talking about war in Iran right now, but obviously there's been another war going on for several years in Ukraine. What sort of lessons have the Chinese taken from Ukraine and how might those compound with these lessons from Iran?
Ryan: The Chinese have been very good at studying other people's wars ever since the Falklands War in 1983 [between Britain and Argentina] and all the way through the succeeding 43 years.
Starting from the top, they've learned political lessons about how NATO as an alliance works and how it makes decisions. They've also learned lessons about how they might split NATO allies away from the United States. I think they've learned lessons about the global misinformation campaign and the conduct of information warfare, which we've also seen both Iran and the United States engage in since late February.
Then there's the obvious ones around drone warfare. In their last big military parade last year, all of the armored vehicles the PLA had on display had drones on them. They've taken those different lessons from Ukraine and they've been reinforced by their learning from the current war in Iran.
RFE/RL: If you're Xi today and you're watching what's happening in Iran, how are you feeling about it as a whole? There's a global energy crisis, and some of that is definitely going to be affecting your economy, but how do you think Beijing feels about the United States beyond the strict military perspective?
Ryan: If I'm Xi, I'm probably thinking that his narrative about the West being in decline is probably right. You're seeing the breakdown of US alliance systems and deepening distrust between America's allies and the Trump administration. For Xi, that confirms his long-term prognosis about the rise of China.
Whether that's right or not remains to be seen, but I think from his perspective -- and it's important to note that he lives in an echo chamber, like many dictators do -- that's probably what he sees.
I don't think that means he's going to instinctively want to invade Taiwan next week, but I think he will be looking for opportunities. A Trump administration, which has degraded its military munition stockpiles because of this war and is potentially distracted by a bitter Congressional elections campaign through October into November, might be distracted enough that the Chinese could see an opening that might be too good to pass.
RFE/RL: We've been focused about China and its designs on Taiwan, but that's also a huge spectrum in terms of what that could actually look like, ranging from installing a loyal local government to a blockade of the island to the most extreme case -- an actual military invasion.
If you're a Chinese planner right now and you're looking at this slew of options, does anyone look more appealing or perhaps increase its chances of success now based on what you're seeing happen in Iran?
Ryan: We should all understand the desired endgame, which is that Xi believes Taiwan should be part of the People's Republic of China. The ways and means, as you point out, are uncertain. There are many different options. I think two paths will be particularly attractive to them.
One would be a mega deal between Trump and Xi, where essentially Trump throws Taiwan under the bus or at least indicates that he wouldn't defend them. Another one would be the opportunity for some kind of lightning Chinese military strike against Taiwan to decapitate and degrade them and potentially invade them.
Those are probably two prominent ones they would be planning for, but there's lots of other iterations that Chinese strategists have been thinking about for decades.
The interview below has been edited for length and clarity.
- By RFE/RL
Pezeshkian Says Iran Has 'Necessary Will' For Peace, Buoying Hopes Deal May Be Nearing
Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian says his country has the "necessary will" to end the war with the United States and Israel depending on conditions, a possible sign the countries may be moving toward settling the conflict.
On a day when US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the coming days "will be decisive," Pezeshkian appeared to move away from Iran's hard line in recent days that it was not talking with Washington.
"We possess the necessary will to end this conflict, provided that essential conditions are met -- especially the guarantees required to prevent repetition of the aggression," Pezeshkian said in a March 31 phone conversation with European Council President Antonio Costa, according to a statement from his office.
"The solution to normalizing the situation is the cessation of their aggressive attacks," Pezeshkian added.
While some have warned Pezeshkian is not a power broker within Iran's leadership despite his title, his comments boosted markets in the United States and led to a dip in oil prices.
The United States said last week it put forward a 15-point plan that includes Iran dismantling its nuclear facilities, limiting its missile capabilities, and ending its support for regional proxy forces.
Senior Iranian officials have denied Tehran is in negotiations with Washington, but Iran said on March 25 that it was reviewing a 15-point US proposal and had put forward what it said were five conditions that needed to be met in order for the conflict to end.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said in an interview with broadcaster Al Jazeera on March 31 that he continues to receive messages from US special envoy Steve Witkoff but that does not mean "negotiations" are taking place between Tehran and Washington.
The comments by Iran's top diplomat are the latest in a series of mixed messages from both sides about efforts to end the conflict, which began on February 28.
US President Donald Trump has said several time in recent days that a deal to end the war was nearing. At the same time, US forces continue to build in the Middle East.
Hegseth stressed during a briefing on the military operation that has decimated Iran's military and nuclear capabilities that he would prefer to end the war with a peace deal.
"We don't want to have to do more militarily than we have to. But I didn't mean it flippantly when I said, in the meantime, we'll negotiate with bombs," Hegseth said.
Further buoying hopes of a settlement, China and Pakistan vowed on March 31 to "strengthen strategic communication and coordination" as they seek to help broker a deal.
Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar met with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, in Beijing and reiterated their call for Iran and the United States to work toward ending the war, which has killed thousands across at least nine countries and is costing economies around the world billions of dollars a day.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said both sides agreed to pursue de-escalation and that the two countries will "jointly advocate for peace and justice, and make new efforts to promote reconciliation and prevent conflict."
Political analyst Anton Penkovsky said contacts between Iran and the United States are likely continuing despite public denials by Tehran.
Speaking to Current Time, Penkovsky said Iran's strategy of denial is "purely for domestic political reasons, so as not to appear weak to its internal audience, especially given that social tensions in Iran remain quite high."
He also cautioned that signs of progress shouldn't obscure the likelihood that major obstacles remain on the path to peace.
"The first is the scope of restrictions on Iran's nuclear program, including the dismantling of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and the transfer of all nuclear materials to the United States -- a position on which the United States has insisted and, apparently, is not willing to make concessions or compromises," Penkovsky said.
"For Iran, this is a matter of sovereignty and strategic deterrence against its enemies in the region."
Retired US Army General Joseph L. Votel -- who led US Central Command from 2016 to 2019 -- told RFE/RL in an interview that Iran is using tactical delay as a strategy in talks to end US and Israeli strikes.
He says the deployment of troops to the Middle East sends a message' to Iran.
"You have to recognize, first and foremost, that part of the purpose of those deployments is a messaging to the Iranians," Votel said.
"This is also about making sure we can provide the maximum amount of options for our military leaders and our civilian leaders, so that, if the president decides something, he has an array of forces from which his military commanders can devise courses of action and approaches that he might approve."
Deploying Forces To Middle East 'Sends Message' To Iran, Says Ex-US General
WASHINGTON -- Iran is using tactical delay as a strategy in talks to end US and Israeli strikes that have decimated Tehran's military capabilities amid a continued buildup of US forces in the Middle East, retired US Army General Joseph Votel -- who led US Central Command from 2016 to 2019 -- told RFE/RL in an interview on March 30.
Votel outlined the risks of escalation in the conflict and warned that without a political settlement to keep Iran from blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a prolonged international military presence might be required to keep the the key oil and gas transit route open.
RFE/RL: The United States is in a 10-day pause ordered by US President Donald Trump after threatening strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure, allowing more time for talks. At the same time, Iran has allowed ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Do you see that as a sign Tehran wants a deal, or is it acting in its own interest?
Joseph Votel: We know Iran has a history of trying to prolong, prolong, prolong negotiations, and try to drag things along. So certainly, I think that's a tactic they have tried, so on one hand we have to take that into consideration.
Secondly, in terms of the negotiations themselves, I don't know how far along we actually are in this. I do think we are probably using third parties right now to help us with our negotiations. I know the Pakistanis had stepped up and were trying to assist with this. So it takes a little bit of time to get to some kind of meaningful discussion.
It may be a combination of both: the Iranians are trying to string us along, but also a recognition on the part of the administration that it does take a little bit of time to get these talks set up -- meaningful talks set up -- so that we can move toward some type of end state for the conflict.
RFE/RL: At the same time, the United States is increasing its military presence in the region. Does this buildup suggest something beyond negotiation tactics?
Votel: You have to recognize, first and foremost, that part of the purpose of those deployments is a messaging to the Iranians.
This is also about making sure we can provide the maximum amount of options for our military leaders and our civilian leaders, so that, if the president decides something, he has an array of forces from which his military commanders can devise courses of action and approaches that he might approve.
Those two things -- the messaging aspect and providing flexibility -- are very, very important. And I think that is probably the most important thing these forces are doing right now. Certainly they can do other things, like going to Kharg Island or other actions, for example. But this messaging and being able to provide a lot of options for our leaders are two of the primary things we're doing right now.
RFE/RL: The administration has said it wants to ensure the Strait of Hormuz remains open. From a military standpoint, what would that actually involve? Would it necessarily fall to US forces, or will Israel play a direct role in such an operation? What could these ground operations look like?
Votel: I don't know if the Israelis have forces postured for this. Certainly the United States is trying to do this.
One of the things that's been talked about is going in and securing Kharg Island. And I think the purpose of that would be to secure the oil infrastructure and make sure it is in US hands. That could be a bargaining chip with the Iranian regime.
What that would look like is taking one of these elements that's been deployed -- whether Marines or Army forces -- and deploying them onto the island, sustaining them and protecting them, and making sure they could stay there while we continued to pursue operations.
What that would do is give us control of the primary oil export location that the Iranians rely on. That may force them to act. Of course, that might generate a response from the Iranians -- who probably would respond -- so we would have to be prepared for that. But that's what I think some of this might look like.
RFE/RL: Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggested this could be achieved without ground troops. Do you agree?
Votel: Ground troops play an important role in this, whatever we decide to do. They are going to be critical, if not for seizing this island then as a quick reaction force and being ready to respond to developments as they take place.
We have done escorts through the Strait of Hormuz without troops before, back in the 1980s. But we didn't have the same threats then. Iran didn't have the same capabilities.
So the nature of the threats Iran possesses today makes it more likely that some troops would be required.
In terms of what it looks like and how this ends, I think there are three broad objectives. First, a regime that is effectively "defanged," that does not have the capabilities it had in the past and cannot threaten its neighbors.
Second, its military capabilities have to be diminished to the point where they cannot be effectively employed beyond its borders; that includes missiles, drones, the Iranian Navy, the IRGC Navy, and the ability to close the Strait of Hormuz or rely on proxies.
And third, we have to make sure they have no way to pursue a nuclear weapon. That includes not only destruction of infrastructure, but also bringing the highly enriched uranium they have produced under responsible control.
RFE/RL: During his recent trip to Europe, Rubio discussed with Group of Seven (G7) allies the need for potential long-term international patrols in the Strait of Hormuz. Even if active fighting stops, does this signal the US and its partners should expect a prolonged military presence in the region?
Votel: I definitely think that's right. If we open up the Strait of Hormuz and we don't have some kind of political settlement to the war then we will be doing this for a long period of time, and we need to be prepared for that.
That's why coalition partners and international partners will be critical: to sustain it long term. Without a political settlement, we are going to have to hold this for as long as we can.
RFE/RL: What about Iran's leadership? We're hearing increasing discussion in Washington about potential interlocutors within Iran's current leadership, including parliamentary speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf. Does this suggest the United States is preparing to engage with elements of the existing regime rather than seeking its replacement?
Votel: What is likely, and what the United States government is beginning to appreciate, is that there will be some form of the regime that remains in place.
Our hope is there will be a leader who exhibits a level of pragmatism that we can work with to move this situation in a more positive direction and stop the fighting.
My concern is that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) leadership appears to have very heavy influence, which means there are significant hard-liners still associated with the government. That may make it more difficult.
It's also important to recognize there is no apparent opposition force ready to take over. The regime is the regime, and we are going to have to deal with it as we move forward.
RFE/RL: How do Iranian-backed groups like the Houthis affect the situation?
Votel: The Houthis could be a problem. They have a lot of capabilities, and while there was a cease-fire in place, they appear to have been taking measures that could allow them to cause real problems.
They are a significant concern. Shi'a militia groups in places like Iraq could also be a problem, but they can be dealt with by host nation forces with some US assistance.
The Houthis are more concerning because they have a much greater capability than many of the other Shi'a militia groups.
RFE/RL: There are increasing reports that Moscow is not only providing intelligence to Iran -- including potentially targeting information -- but also sharing drone technology and battlefield tactics refined during the war in Ukraine. How significant is this kind of support, and how is it shaping both the trajectory and the complexity of the conflict?
Votel: It's a big problem, and it is definitely something the United States should be addressing with the Russians. If they are providing target information or capabilities that are prolonging this conflict, that needs to stop.
That is not necessarily going to be done militarily; it will have to be done diplomatically. We have to put pressure on the Russians to stop because this could prolong the conflict and make it even more difficult for us to achieve what we have already initiated.
The interview has been edited for length and clarity.
- By Ray Furlong and
- RFE/RL's Radio Farda
New Executions A Sign Of Growing Repression In Iran Amid War
Iran announced the execution of two political prisoners on March 31, a day after the death penalty was also carried out on two others, in a sign that the clerical authorities are stepping up a crackdown on internal opposition in the country.
The men, identified as Babak Alipour and Pouya Ghobadi, were accused of membership in the Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK), an exiled opposition group that seeks to overthrow the Islamic republic and that Tehran regards as a terrorist organization.
The executions show that despite US and Israeli strikes wiping out much of Iran's leadership and degrading its military-industrial capacities, there are no visible signs that the clerical authorities are losing control. In fact, repression appears once again to be on the rise.
The men's lawyer, Babak Paknia, wrote on social media that hours after the executions his office had still not received the verdict from the trial that sealed their fate.
"Before the sentence is carried out, it is necessary to notify its contents to the defense lawyers or at least to the defendant himself. The minimum right of the convicted person is to be able to benefit from the right to retrial and to a stay of execution," he added.
Three other men were executed earlier this month.
Torture, Confessions
Mahmood Amiry-Moghaddam, an Iranian human rights campaigner based in Norway, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda that Alipour and Ghobadi were "kept in solitary confinement for long periods after their arrest. They were tortured and confessions were extracted from them -- confessions that, even under the laws of the Islamic republic itself, are not actually legal."
In a statement responding to the executions, the MEK said "this reflects the regime's fear of the people and their embrace of the resistance units. This bloodshed will forever roll up the disgraceful scroll of the regime."
The MEK described the two men as "heroic" members, but their affiliation with the organization could not be independently confirmed.
Meanwhile, two other defendants in the same case, Vahid Bani-Amirian and Abolhassan Montazer, could face the same sentence.
"The Islamic republic's main threat -- what truly endangers its survival -- is the Iranian people and popular protests. The goal of these executions is to instill fear among the population," Amiry-Moghaddam said.
Iran was wracked by mass protests in January that were brutally suppressed by security forces. HRANA, a US-based human rights monitoring group, said it had verified nearly 7,000 deaths during Iran's crackdown on protesters in January and many more arrests. It says 1,574 civilians have died since the United States and Israel launched air strikes on Iran on February 28.
Before the strikes began, US President Donald Trump had written on social media that "help is on the way" for Iranian protesters and said achieving regime change in Iran would be "the best thing that could happen."
Recent statements by US officials, however, have not listed regime change as a campaign objective, though Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told reporters at a briefing in Washington on March 31 that "regime change has occurred" and the "primary" focus now is getting Iran to make a deal.
'Clashes' In Iranian Prison
State media have reported increasing numbers of people arrested for being "spies" and "mercenaries."
Police chief Ahmadreza Radan was quoted as reporting hundreds of arrests on various charges relating to the war. This also raises the issue of conditions within prisons.
"Access to even basic necessities is extremely limited. Food conditions were already very bad before the war, but since the war started they've become much worse," Reza Younesi, whose father is in Tehran's notorious Evin Prison, told Radio Farda on March 31.
"Beyond that, the explosions in Tehran -- some of which occurred near Evin -- have had severe psychological effects on the prisoners. Fear and anxiety dominate the prison atmosphere under these wartime conditions," he added.
Younesi's brother and father are being held in different prisons, having both been accused of MEK membership.
Younesi, who now lives in Sweden, also described a riot in Iran's Ghezel Hesar Prison, where his brother is incarcerated. The incident occurred on March 30 when two prisoners there, Mohammad Taghavi Sangdehi and Akbar Daneshvarkar, were taken for execution.
"Other prisoners resisted and clashes occurred," he said, adding that about 20 prisoners were taken away and "most likely transferred to solitary confinement, but we don't know exactly where they are."
These latest executions of four men, on March 30-31, follow that of three men on March 19. These three were arrested during the January protests, while those most recently executed had been in jail since 2024.
Amiry-Moghaddam, who heads a group called Iran Human Rights, said the clerical authorities in the country were using the war as a cover for executions.
"In the shadow of war, the political cost of these executions is much lower. Normally, if a protester or a political prisoner were executed, the Islamic republic would face much harsher reactions from the international community…. But now attention is focused on the war," he said.
On March 30, a UN expert panel issued a statement expressing "grave concern" about the executions carried out that day, plus the others earlier in March. The statement also condemned US and Israeli military action, stating "the people of Iran are under attack from outside and from within."
The statement also notes that Iran's authorities have imposed an Internet blackout in the country that has now lasted 32 days, "cutting people off from information and causing severe economic harm."
- By Merhat Sharipzhan and
- Colin Hood
China, Pakistan Coordinate On Iran Talks As War Disrupts Global Trade
China and Pakistan vowed to "strengthen strategic communication and coordination" as they seek to help broker a deal to end the war in Iran, now in its fifth week with no clear end in sight.
Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar met with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, in Beijing on March 31 and reiterated their call for Iran and the United States to work toward ending the war, which has killed thousands across at least nine countries and is costing economies billions of dollars a day.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said both sides agreed to pursue de-escalation and that the two countries will "jointly advocate for peace and justice, and make new efforts to promote reconciliation and prevent conflict."
Pakistan has emerged as a key player in efforts to broker peace, leveraging its working ties with both US President Donald Trump and longstanding bonds with Iran. The push comes as Beijing and Islamabad seek to position themselves as stabilizing actors while avoiding direct entanglement in the widening conflict.
“By publicly pledging to strengthen cooperation with Islamabad on Iran, China is in a way moderating the conflict indirectly and amplifying the voice of Pakistan, which is clearly a trusted ally," Alicia Garcia-Herrero, the chief Economist for Asia Pacific at French investment bank Natixis, told RFE/RL.
Dar hosted foreign ministers from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt in Islamabad on March 29 in an effort to build consensus around a cease-fire and renewed negotiations.
Pakistani officials say the initiative centers on five principles, including civilian protection and maritime security.
"Pakistan is very happy that both Iran and the US have expressed their confidence in Pakistan to facilitate their talks," Dar said in a televised briefing after the talks.
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif framed the effort as part of a push to position Pakistan as a "credible intermediary," leveraging ties with Washington and Tehran.
China has publicly backed the initiative, with Mao saying following the talks that Beijing "appreciates Pakistan's efforts."
Iran's response has been cautious, though reports suggest Tehran may be using Pakistani channels for indirect communication with Washington.
On March 26, Dar said Islamabad has been serving as a conduit for message exchanges between Washington and Tehran.
“Pakistan is used as a way to give China influence without seeing China in the cease-fire talks," said Garcia-Herrero, who is also a senior fellow at the Brussels-based think tnak Bruegel. "The goal is to stop the fallout, stabilize energy prices, and prevent other unpredictable factors that Trump might be working on.”
Shipping Disruptions Intensify Diplomacy
Diplomatic urgency is rising amid mounting disruptions to maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy shipments, particularly oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Shipping has slowed sharply since the United States and Israel launched their military operation against Iran on February 28, with vessels delayed and exports from Gulf producers constrained.
China confirmed that several of its ships recently transited the strait following "coordination with relevant parties." Data from MarineTraffic showed two vessels belonging to the Chinese state-owned COSCO shipping company passing through the strait on March 30 after aborting earlier attempts.
Iran has indicated the waterway remains open to "friendly countries," widely interpreted to include China, its top oil customer.
China relies heavily on energy from the Middle East, particularly seaborne exports that pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
China has so far weathered the worst shocks of the energy crisis thanks to diversified supply, falling domestic demand, and strategic reserves. According to Kpler, a commodity intelligence firm, Chinese refineries had stockpiled between 1.2 and 1.4 billion barrels of oil as of the end of 2025, which could last up to three months.
Beijing's response has been comparatively restrained, analysts say.
"Beijing prefers the restoration of stability over an expanded role in a more turbulent order. It wants access to energy, markets, and influence in the Middle East -- not the burdens of regional stabilization or balancing among competing powers," Zongyuan Zoe Liu, a senior fellow at the Council for Foreign Relations, wrote in Foreign Affairs magazine on March 30.
Trump has sent varying signals about Washington's next steps for the war, saying the United States was already negotiating with Tehran while also suggesting the military campaign could expand.
Iran has repeatedly denied it is in talks with the United States.
With reporting by Xinhua, Global Times, Reuters, Al Jazeera, The News Pakistan, and The Wall Street Journal
- By RFE/RL's Radio Farda and
- Will Tizard
Iranian And Israeli Oil Facilities In Flames As Strikes Continue
Iran and Israel continued to trade attacks that left a petrochemical plant in the Iranian city of Tabriz in flames, according to Iran's state media on March 30. It was followed by a strike on an Israeli refinery in Haifa. An Iraqi Air Force transport plane was also targeted by Iran-backed militias at Baghdad International Airport as the conflict in the region entered its fifth week.