Charles Recknagel is standards editor for RFE/RL.
Hundreds of candidates are competing in Iraq's election of a National Assembly on 30 January. They come from very different backgrounds and are running for a wide variety of reasons. But all of them are braving threats from insurgents against their lives, in hopes of having a role in shaping Iraq's future.
Iraq is due to hold an election on 30 January under highly unusual circumstances. Security will be tight and most cars will be banned from the streets. In some areas, voters will see the full lists of candidates they must choose from only when they actually enter the polling stations. And international election monitors will not be present.
As Iraq's 30 January elections for a new National Assembly approach, Kurdish voters are expected to turn out in large numbers to support their own united list of candidates. The Kurdish list is campaigning to preserve the Iraqi Kurds' already considerable degree of autonomy, which many credit with keeping their area quiet, despite conflicts elsewhere in the country.
Iraq's election on 30 January comes almost two years after the U.S.-led invasion to topple Saddam Hussein. The road to elections has been -- and remains -- full of uncertainties, including whether Iraq's once dominant Arab Sunni minority will turn out for the polls. RFE/RL looks back at the road traveled thus far -- from the toppling of Hussein to rid Iraq of its presumed weapons of mass destruction to efforts to guide the country to a more democratic future.
With Iraq's poll on schedule for 30 January and violence continuing in Sunni areas, the Shi'a majority looks poised to win most of the seats in the new National Assembly. But what would this mean for Iraq's neighbor Iran -- which has worked hard for just such a result -- and for the region's Sunni-dominated Arab countries?
Would a Shi'a coalition encourage radical Islamists? As Iraq prepares for its 30 January elections for a National Assembly, Shi'a candidates are widely expected to win the greatest number of seats. One reason is that the Shi'a are the largest community in Iraq -- making up an estimated 60 percent of the population. Another is that some parts of central Iraq populated by the once dominant Sunni community remain too restive to assure a large voter turnout. If the Shi'a do become the country's most politically powerful community, how will that affect Iraq's prospects for developing a stable, more democratic system of government?
(file photo) The Netherlands has announced that it will withdraw its 1,350 troops from Iraq by mid-March. It's the latest in a string of similar announcements by Washington's allies, including plans by Poland and Ukraine to get mostly or completely out of Iraq over the course of this year. When the troop reductions are complete, how much of the U.S.-led coalition in Iraq will be left, and who will shoulder the additional security burdens?
With two weeks to go before Iraq's National Assembly election, most of the candidate's names have still not been made public for security reasons. But when voters go to the polls on 30 January, and do view the complete lists, they will see something unprecedented in Iraqi history. One of every three names on the candidate lists is the name of a woman. That is in line with requirements that at least 25 percent of the new assembly's seats go to women.
Election campaigning is under way for Iraq's 30 January vote. But with security a major concern, the campaigning bears little resemblance to what takes place in more stable countries. Most candidates appear in public only on television. And rallies, when they occur, are limited to a few hundred party faithful within closely guarded compounds.
Prime Minister Allawi (file photo) Iraqi interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi has acknowledged that areas of Iraq will be too unsafe to take part in the 30 January election. The assessment raises again the question of how free and fair Iraq's vote for a new National Assembly can be given the continuing violence.
Arab Sunni leaders are becoming increasingly vocal in raising concerns over Iraq's planned 30 January elections. Many say they worry that the security situation in central and parts of northern Iraq will prevent large numbers of Sunni voters from going to the polls, assuring Sunni candidates do poorly in the race for seats in the new National Assembly. Some community leaders fear this month's vote will hand power to Iraq's Shi'a majority after decades of Sunni dominance of the country's affairs.
U.S. troops in Baghdad (file photo) The assassination of the governor of Baghdad province today highlighted the deadly capabilities of Iraq's insurgents as they and the government engage in test of strength ahead of January elections. The killing caps a recent string of insurgent operations aimed at targets ranging from police stations and Iraq's fledgling National Guard to voter-registration centers.
The death toll from the 26 December tsunamis in Southeastern Asia is now more than 100,000 and growing as the bodies of more victims are found. As relief agencies try to cope with the crisis, there are fears that inadequate shelter and sanitation could lead to epidemics in the region as well. The greatest danger is posed by unsanitary drinking water.
Prospects for Sunni participation in Iraq's 30 January elections are being clouded by the withdrawal of the largest mainstream Sunni political party from the race. The Iraqi Islamic Party says it is dropping out of the election due to concerns that security is inadequate for such a poll and in protest at the government's refusal to consider requests to postpone the vote.
Iraq's 30 January elections for a new National Assembly are rapidly approaching, but uncertainty remains over how many Sunnis in central Iraq will come out to vote. Now, there are reports that some U.S. officials are proposing that the national legislature reserve a number of seats for the once dominant Sunni minority regardless of whether many members participate in the elections.
When Iran agreed to negotiate with Europe over its nuclear activities, much of the international community breathed a sigh of relief. The negotiations -- which opened on Monday (Dec 20) -- focus on an offer by Britain, Germany and France to give Iran trade advantages and technical assistance in exchange for Tehran indefinitely -- that is, permanently -- giving up its uranium enrichment activities. While a final deal has yet to be worked out, the three European Union nations view their initiative as already partly successful because Tehran has agreed to temporarily suspend uranium enrichment while the negotiators meet. That has defused -- for now -- U.S. and European worries that Iran was progressing with its efforts to master uranium enrichment while the world only discussed what to do. In Part 3 of a four-part series on the crisis over Iran's nuclear program, RFE/RL looks at where the debate goes from here. ( Part 1 --> http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2004/12/c4d001c0-2a9f-4a55-86a7-10271eda48e1.html looks at what is known -- and unknown -- about Iran's nuclear ambitions. Part 2 --> http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2004/12/d3a60813-5569-4d71-bb50-e02e26229a0b.html looks at two separate routes that Tehran might be taking in its alleged efforts to make a nuclear bomb. Part 4 --> /featuresarticle/2004/12/aeb33ea5-ebbd-43c2-b959-d6844a4c1bc6.html examines the seldom-heard views and sentiments of Iranian citizens about the country's nuclear aspirations.)
The challenge for any country clandestinely seeking to become a nuclear power is how to acquire enough fissile material for such weapons. Most countries begin by starting a commercial nuclear program, a right to which any state that has signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) is entitled. The commercial program can then provide a cover for engaging in so-called dual-use activities, which can have either peaceful or military uses. In Part 2 of our series on the crisis over Iran's nuclear program, looks at the progress Tehran is believed to have made along two separate routes to making a nuclear bomb. ( Part 1 --> /featuresarticle/2004/12/c4d001c0-2a9f-4a55-86a7-10271eda48e1.html looks at what is known -- and unknown -- about Iran's nuclear ambitions. Part 3 --> /featuresarticle/2004/12/f5a006e7-b8fd-4e69-977f-f4f1aacb325e.html examines diplomatic efforts under way to give Iran trade advantages and technical assistance in exchange for giving up its uranium-enrichment activities. Part 4 --> /featuresarticle/2004/12/aeb33ea5-ebbd-43c2-b959-d6844a4c1bc6.html examines the seldom-heard views and sentiments of Iranian citizens about the country's nuclear aspirations.)
In the wake of the Iraq invasion, there has been a faint but growing drumbeat sounded in Washington by officials who believe the Bush administration should now confront another member of what it has described as the "axis of evil" -- Iran. Washington alleges that Tehran is a state sponsor of terrorism and that it is trying to develop nuclear weapons. Tehran's nuclear activities include building a commercial reactor with Russian assistance near the Gulf port of Bushehr. But what worries Washington are Tehran's efforts to master uranium enrichment -- a process that can produce fuel for nuclear reactors or, at advanced levels, material for nuclear bombs. Until recently, Tehran kept those efforts secret from the UN's nuclear watchdog agency. Now, as UN inspectors insist that Iran fully disclose all of its activities, the question of whether Iran is seeking to develop nuclear weapons is the focus of worldwide debate. In the first of a four-part series, "Iran Nuclear Crisis," RFE/RL looks at what is known -- and unknown -- about Iran's nuclear ambitions. ( Part 2 --> /featuresarticle/2004/12/d3a60813-5569-4d71-bb50-e02e26229a0b.html of this series looks at two separate routes that Tehran might be taking in its alleged efforts to make a nuclear bomb. Part 3 --> /featuresarticle/2004/12/f5a006e7-b8fd-4e69-977f-f4f1aacb325e.html examines diplomatic efforts under way to give Iran trade advantages and technical assistance in exchange for giving up its uranium-enrichment activities. Part 4 --> /featuresarticle/2004/12/aeb33ea5-ebbd-43c2-b959-d6844a4c1bc6.html examines the seldom-heard views and sentiments of Iranian citizens about the country's nuclear aspirations.)
Adnan Pachachi, an influential secular Sunni politician, has said his group may still decide not to campaign Iraq's Election Commission says some 6,400 candidates will compete in the 30 January vote for a National Assembly. But preparations for the election continue to be plagued by security problems and questions over how international bodies can monitor whether it is free and fair.
This year saw the U.S. face major challenges in Iraq as multiple insurgent groups proved their ability to disrupt reconstruction efforts aimed at rebuilding the country. But Washington did make progress on the political front, including the establishment of Iraq's first sovereign post-Saddam Hussein administration. Now, as the country prepares for three rounds of elections in 2005, the test will be whether the new political process can create a government with enough popular support to finally neutralize the insurgents.
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