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Why Iran And The U.A.E. Fight Over 3 Tiny Islands

Why Iran And The U.A.E. Fight Over 3 Tiny Islands
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Major oil exporters in the Persian Gulf region are keenly focused on who has control of a small archipelago in the middle of the Strait of Hormuz. Both Iran and the United Arab Emirates have made claims.

Iran's Five-Day Workweek Campaign Pits Religious Identity Against Global Business

Under proposed legislation passed by parliament, Iranian government employees like these oil workers would get a new day off on Saturday.
Under proposed legislation passed by parliament, Iranian government employees like these oil workers would get a new day off on Saturday.

Iran has taken a big step toward reducing its number of working days and hours for government employees, a move that has long been sought as a way to improve labor production and economic efficiency.

But the effort was not without controversy, with parliament weighing strong opinions on which proposed new day off would be best -- Thursday, or Saturday.

Much of the debate in transitioning from a six-day workweek to five days has pitted business interests against religious values.

Proponents of adding a day off on Saturday say it would provide economic benefits and be more in keeping with the rest of the working world. Opponents argue that adding a day off on Saturday would be damaging to Iran's unique cultural and religious identity.

When the dust settled, Saturday emerged victorious in parliament on May 15 by a vote of 136 for to 66 against, with three abstentions. From parliament the proposal will now head to the Guardians Council, which holds veto powers and determines whether proposed legislation fits with the Islamic republic's interpretation of Shari'a law.

The effort to overhaul and standardize Iran's workweek goes back decades, but has picked up steam in recent years. The official workweek consists of 44 working hours, with a half-day off on Thursday and a full day off on the Friday day of prayer and rest.

The government of former President Mohammad Khatami began lobbying for a change in the early 2000s, and the current push marks the seventh campaign since 2016. In 2018, a proposal reached parliament but failed to result in a vote.

Mahdi Ghodsi, an economist with the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, explains that the initiative has historically faced hurdles because the Islamic republic has sought to "be a role model" in the Muslim world, and has "never wanted to follow international norms."

The workweek debate, he told RFE/RL's Radio Farda, is "a case in point" of the clerical establishment's contrarian nature, and has significant repercussions on international business.

In most foreign countries, "banks are closed on Saturday and Sunday," Ghodsi said. "So naturally a country that has a Thursday through Friday weekend means it has no financial relations with the rest of the world for four straight days."

Industry and commerce representatives argued that point in the run-up to the vote, but faced stiff resistance from lawmakers and influential clerics who claimed that a Friday-Saturday weekend would be a concession to Judeo-Christian values followed in many foreign countries.

Ruhollah Harizavi, deputy head of the Islamic Propagation Organization, warned against "the consequences of following the 'infidel' lifestyle."

The Khorasan newspaper, a conservative outlet based in the holy Shi'ite city of Mashhad, noted that a day off on Saturday would coincide with the Jewish Sabbath.

The newspaper stressed the importance of protecting Islamic identity and values, and argued against cultural mixing that could take away from societal individuality.

"The issue is not just a day off, it is an issue of altering social order," the daily wrote.

Parliament was informed ahead of the vote that Ayatollah Javadi Amoli, a leading cleric, had not raised any objections to Saturday being a day off. But the proposed legislation still faces a stiff test before the Guardians Council, the powerful constitutional watchdog dominated by hard-liners.

"The Guardians Council is more conservative, so they may reject the bill because they might think having Saturday off is a Jewish thing, which is baseless," Ghodsi said. "Other Muslim nations have Saturday off."

Turkey, for example, has both Saturday and Sunday off, while the United Arab Emirates has a half day off on Friday as well as Saturday and Sunday off. Saudi Arabia has Friday and Saturday off, in line with the position of the Organization Of Islamic Cooperation.

If the measure gets final approval, it will also cut the number of weekly working hours from 44 to 40.

Fewer working hours would also address another area where Iran has traditionally gone against the grain, with some arguing that achieving higher productivity requires more working hours, not fewer.

Ghodsi says that low production and efficiency has been a problem for years in Iran, but that it has "little to do with working hours" and is "rooted in a lack of financial resources and technology."

"Nevertheless, reducing working hours is a positive thing," Ghodsi said, noting that some countries were even adopting 35-hour workweeks.

"Fewer working hours means workers have more time to themselves, making them happier," Ghodsi said. "Working fewer hours could result in workers focusing more on finishing their tasks, which could increase efficiency."

While many Iranian listeners of Radio Farda appeared to be in favor of the proposed changes, not all were convinced it would have much of an effect considering the high levels of poverty, unemployment, and inflation in the country.

"Whether it is Thursday or Saturday it is not going to affect people's lives, because every day our lives are difficult," one listener called in to say.

Written by Michael Scollon based on reporting by RFE/RL's Radio Farda

Why Are U.S. Sanctions Against Iran's Oil Exports Ineffective?

A tanker at a crude oil terminal at the port of Ningbo Zhoushan, China (file photo)
A tanker at a crude oil terminal at the port of Ningbo Zhoushan, China (file photo)

Iran is one of the most sanctioned countries in the world. But restrictions imposed by the United States have largely failed to stymie Iran's oil exports, the backbone of its flailing economy.

U.S. sanctions have cut off Iran from most of its traditional customers, forcing Tehran to find new buyers and sell its oil at discounted prices.

But China’s willingness to buy record amounts of Iranian oil, Tehran's mastery of sanctions-evading tactics, and Washington's reluctance to strictly enforce sanctions have made U.S. measures against Iran’s energy exports ineffective, analysts say.

'Dark' Fleet Of Tankers

The lifting of U.S. sanctions as part of the 2015 nuclear deal with world powers allowed Iran to sell its oil to customers in Europe and East Asia. Oil exports reached a peak in 2018.

But exports plummeted after then-President Donald Trump reneged on the nuclear agreement later that year.

Iran has boosted its sales in recent years by circumventing sanctions, including using its "dark fleet" of tankers to illegally transport oil shipments to China.

The tactic involves ship-to-ship operations to offload the oil, middlemen, hidden money transfers, and rebranding the oil to mask its Iranian origin and make it appear to come from a third country.

"Iran is continuously developing and expanding not just the network of middlemen and trading companies involved in the sale of its oil, but also its own fleet of tankers that it predominantly uses to move its crude," said Nader Itayim, the Middle East editor at the U.K.-based Argus Media.

Chinese Appetite

Growing demand for Iranian oil in China has been key to the surge in Iran's oil sales.

Ship tracking data collected by Argus shows Iran’s oil exports currently hovering at 1.5 million barrels per day, with around 85 to 90 percent going to China.

Tehran gives China a steep discount to take its banned oil, taking up to 15 percent off the price of each barrel to make it worthwhile for Beijing to take on the liability of skirting sanctions.

A laborer walking the platform of an oil facility in Khark, an Iranian island in the Persian Gulf (file photo)
A laborer walking the platform of an oil facility in Khark, an Iranian island in the Persian Gulf (file photo)

The discounts have raised questions about the long-term profitability of Iran’s business with China. But experts said that Tehran still stands to gain.

"Even at heavy discounts, selling Iranian oil is extremely profitable and sustainable," said Steve Hanke, a professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University. "That’s because the marginal cost of production in Iran is roughly $15 or less per barrel."

Gregory Brew, an Iran and energy analyst at the U.S.-based Eurasia Group, says U.S. sanctions were once effective at blocking oil exports to China, but that is no longer the case.

"China's rising stature as a new global power lends it greater freedom to defy U.S. sanctions," Brew said.

Reluctance To Enforce Sanctions

Some analysts said Washington has been reluctant to strictly enforce sanctions, while others maintain that sanctions in general have failed.

Resources are required to enforce restrictions while new sectors would need to be sanctioned to keep up the pressure, according to Itayim of Argus Media.

"Otherwise, the target finds ways to evade the sanctions, while at the same time the buyer becomes more complacent as it sees enforcement waning. In the case of Iran and China, I think we have seen a bit of both," Itayim said.

Analysts also argue that Washington is reluctant to strictly enforce sanctions due to the risks associated with forcing Iranian oil off the world market.

"Apart from the impact such action would have on the price of oil, which carries political and economic importance to [U.S. President Joe] Biden in an election year, aggressive enforcement would provoke both Iran and China, at a time when the United States is trying to manage escalatory risk both in the Middle East and East Asia," Brew said.

The lax enforcement of oil sanctions also extends to Venezuela and Russia, Itayim says, noting that it "has been key to keeping a lid" on oil prices.

U.S. Congress last month passed a security package that included the Iran-China Energy Sanctions Act, giving the government the authority to further restrict Iran's oil exports.

But experts are not convinced that more sanctions will have an impact.

Hanke said any new measures "will join the long list of failed Western sanctions" on the Islamic republic.

"Sanctions are always subject to workarounds that render the enforcement of sanctions futile," he added.

Overworked And Underpaid, Many Iranian Doctors Migrate -- And Some Even Take Their Lives

Overworked, underpaid, and "humiliated" by their seniors, many young doctors in Iran consider moving abroad -- or even suicide.
Overworked, underpaid, and "humiliated" by their seniors, many young doctors in Iran consider moving abroad -- or even suicide.

The alarming number of young Iranian doctors taking their own lives has put the future of the country's health-care system in doubt.

Overworked, underpaid, and "humiliated" by their seniors, many resident doctors -- medical school graduates in training -- are harboring suicidal thoughts or considering moving abroad.

"Suicide among residents today is more of a crisis," Nima Shahriarpur, an emergency medicine doctor, told the Iranian news website Khabar Online.

And he may have a point: 16 resident doctors committed suicide in the Iranian year ending on March 19. A year earlier, 13 young physicians took their own lives.

The most recent incident happened last week, when Parastu Bakhshi was found dead by her colleagues at her hospital residence. The 34-year-old resident doctor was reportedly under increasing pressure at work.

Parastu Bakhshi is just one recent case of a young doctor unable to go on.
Parastu Bakhshi is just one recent case of a young doctor unable to go on.

Difficult Years

The residency period starts after medical school and lasts between three and five years. For some it starts tough. For others it is even more difficult.

Resident doctors, most of whom are in their 30s, are expected to work 30-hour shifts and are paid between 80 million and 110 million rials ($125 to $172) per month. The payments are often delayed.

The doctors are not allowed to practice medicine outside of the hospital during their residency and often have to work a second job in a different field to make ends meet.

A resident doctor who spoke to RFE/RL's Radio Farda on condition of anonymity said young physicians are subjected to poor working conditions, such as putting up with their supervisors' "humiliating behavior" and "bad language," while also being forced to work extra shifts.

Two young doctors sleep between shifts at an Iranian hospital.
Two young doctors sleep between shifts at an Iranian hospital.

According to Vahdat Shariat, the head of the Iranian Psychiatric Association, 30 percent of resident doctors in Iran consider committing suicide.

In September, Shariat and Hamid Yaqubi, the head of the Iranian Scientific Society for Suicide Prevention, urged the health minister to take action.

In a letter, they cited a study that found that 25 percent of resident doctors in Tehran suffered from severe depression.

They also suggested several measures to address the problem, including reducing excessive shifts, providing insurance for resident doctors, reviewing their salaries, and offering mental health support.

In recent years, resident doctors have sought to raise awareness of their plight on social media by posting images of their colleagues who committed suicide. While this has grabbed the media's attention, there has been no official response.

Not Easy To Quit

It was even very difficult to quit, until recently.

To be allowed into a residency program, medical school graduates needed two people to guarantee they would not leave the country or quit the program in any way -- including death by natural causes. Otherwise, the guarantors would have to pay damages.

That rule was deemed illegal and struck down in 2021, but residents say they are still asked to provide guarantees. A pharmacy resident, for instance, was asked to provide a guarantee worth 9.9 billion rials (over $15,500) just to travel abroad for holidays last month.

The financial guarantees make it difficult for doctors, particularly residents, to leave the country. But reports in Iranian media suggest doctors are leaving in droves.

The economic daily Donya-e Eqtesad reported last year that 5,000 doctors had emigrated from Iran in the Iranian year ending in March 2022, around 2,000 more than in 2020.

Citing a survey published in January 2023 by the state-funded Iranian Migration Observatory (IMO), local media say 50 percent of doctors surveyed sought to leave Iran. One-third of those said they were willing to take less-specialized jobs abroad unrelated to medicine.

The most popular destinations for Iranian doctors and nurses are Western nations, particularly the United States, and Persian Gulf countries.

A December 2022 IMO report showed that as of 2018, some 29,000 Iranians worked in the U.S. health-care system, including 8,000 physicians and surgeons. The overall number of Iranian health-care workers in the United States increased to 36,000 by 2021.

A survey published in Iran's state-run IRNA news agency last year found that many doctors start planning to leave the country in their 20s while in medical school.

"Interns see the residents' situation up close and know why they are unhappy," the report said. Among other reasons cited for their desire to leave were Iran's poor economic conditions and a poor work-life balance.

Nevertheless, little has been done to help resident doctors.

In a letter to Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in January, Psychiatric Association chief Shariat warned that if officials continue to ignore the plight of young physicians, the country will have to contend with the "collapse of the health-care system."

Workers Still 'Drowning' Despite Iran's Minimum-Wage Hike

Iranian workers stage a protest rally on March 22.
Iranian workers stage a protest rally on March 22.

The Iranian government’s 35.3 percent hike in the minimum wage for workers, announced at the start of the Persian New Year, has sparked a backlash among labor activists and the country’s labor force, who say it is inadequate in the face of years of economic decline and falling living standards.

The wage hike was sanctioned by the Supreme Labor Council and ratified by representatives of the government and employers but not labor delegates, who showed their disapproval by walking out of the council meeting and refusing to endorse the decree.

"Being underwater economically, whether by a little or a lot, doesn’t change the fact that you are drowning," Alireza Mirghafari, a council member and labor activist, was quoted by the semiofficial ILNA news agency as saying.

Labor analysts say the hike, made on the eve of the Persian New Year, won’t stop a rise in poverty levels among the workforce given the annual inflation rate for the past five years has been above 40 percent amid stagnant wages, decimating purchasing power for much of the country.

The country's economy has been ravaged by U.S. sanctions, hitting budget revenues hard while also leading to a surge of protests. Labor Ministry data shows that Iran's poverty rate doubled in 2021, with one-third of the population living in "extreme poverty." Since then, conditions have failed to improve.

Meanwhile, in September 2023, Iran's Misery Index, calculated by the Iranian Statistics Center, rose to 60.4 -- its highest point ever and more than double what it was six years ago. The higher the rating, the worse off people feel.

The situation surrounding price growth is only going to get worse, according to Hassan Sadeghi, the head of the Veterans' Union of the Labor Community. He says the inflation rate could be on its way to climbing as high as 67 percent.

The wage hike decision has also prompted calls for heightened labor activism, with organizations like the Haft Tappeh Sugarcane Workers' Syndicate labeling the increase "humiliating" for workers. The syndicate, through a Telegram statement, has urged for continuous protests and strikes to fight for fair wages.

Further criticism has come from the Syndicate of Workers of the Tehran and Suburbs Bus Company, which said the new wage was still “insufficient” and called for collective action and the establishment of independent labor organizations as a means to defend workers' living standards.

A consortium of labor groups, including the Haft Tappeh Sugarcane Workers' Syndicate and the Retirees' Union, issued a joint statement emphasizing the importance of organized, strategic opposition to combat what they perceive as an exploitative system.

Unrest -- including several protests by teachers -- has rattled Iran in recent years in response to declining living standards, wage arrears, and a lack of welfare support.

Labor laws in Iran do not recognize the right of workers to form independent unions.

Written by Ardeshir Tayebi based on an original story in Persian by RFE/RL's Radio Farda

Iran's Medical Council Warns Of Doctor Shortage Due To Emigration

The report cited the ongoing economic crisis in Iran as a key reason for medical personnel choosing to leave. (file photo)
The report cited the ongoing economic crisis in Iran as a key reason for medical personnel choosing to leave. (file photo)

Iran's Medical Council in a March 16 report warned that the country is facing a shortage of doctors, especially pediatric surgeons, because of the increasing number of physicians emigrating from the country. The nongovernmental organization's report cited the ongoing economic crisis in Iran as a key reason for medical personnel choosing to leave. Mohammad Raiszadeh, head of the council, previously called the "emptying of physicians" a "serious" crisis and warned about the future of Iran's health sector. To read the original story by RFE/RL's Radio Farda, click here.

Growing 'Despondency' And Hard-Liners' Dominance: Key Takeaways From Iran's Elections

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi casts his vote during parliamentary elections in Tehran on March 1. “The Islamic republic is now a minority-ruled unconstitutional theocracy,” one Iran expert says.
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi casts his vote during parliamentary elections in Tehran on March 1. “The Islamic republic is now a minority-ruled unconstitutional theocracy,” one Iran expert says.

Iran’s parliamentary elections on March 1 witnessed a historically low turnout, in a blow to the legitimacy of the clerical establishment.

The official turnout of 41 percent was the lowest for legislative elections since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Critics claim the real turnout was likely even lower.

Hard-liners dominated the elections for the parliament and the Assembly of Experts, a body that picks the country’s supreme leader, consolidating their grip on power. Many reformists and moderates were barred from contesting the polls.

Experts said the declining turnout signifies the growing chasm between the ruling clerics and Iran's young population, many of whom are demanding greater social and political freedoms in the Middle Eastern nation of some 88 million.

“These elections proved that the overriding imperative for the Islamic republic is strengthening ideological conformity at the top, even at the cost of losing even more of its legitimacy from below,” said Ali Vaez, the director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group.

'Widening Divide'

Observers said disillusionment with the state has been building up for years and is reflected in the declining voter turnout in recent elections.

Turnout in presidential and parliamentary elections were consistently above 50 percent for decades. But the numbers have declined since 2020, when around 42 percent of voters cast ballots in the parliamentary elections that year. In the 2021 presidential vote, turnout was below 49 percent.

Ali Ansari, a history professor at the University of St. Andrews, puts that down to growing “despondency” in the country.

This is “the clearest indication of the widening divide between state and society, which has been growing over the years,” said Ansari.


“It is quite clear that the despondency is extending even to those who are generally sympathetic to the regime,” he added, referring to reformist former President Mohammad Khatami choosing not to vote in the March 1 elections.

Voter apathy was particularly evident in the capital, Tehran, which has the most representatives in the 290-seat parliament. In Tehran, only 1.8 million of the 7.7 million eligible voters -- or some 24 percent -- cast their votes on March 1, according to official figures.

Up to 400,000 invalid ballots -- many believed to be blank -- were cast in Tehran alone, a sign of voter discontent.

Ahead of the elections, nearly 300 activists in Iran had called on the public to boycott the “engineered” elections.

Beyond Boycott

The March 1 elections were the first since the unprecedented anti-establishment protests that rocked the country in 2022.

The monthslong demonstrations, triggered by the death in custody of a young woman arrested for allegedly violating Iran’s hijab law, snowballed into one of the most sustained demonstrations against Iran’s theocracy. At least 500 protesters were killed and thousands were detained in the state’s brutal crackdown on the protests.

Iran has been the scene of several bursts of deadly anti-establishment protests since the disputed presidential election in 2009. Many of the demonstrations have been over state repression and economic mismanagement.

Iranians protest the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini after she was detained by the morality police in September 2022. Experts say declining voter turnout highlights society's growing disenchantment with the state.
Iranians protest the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini after she was detained by the morality police in September 2022. Experts say declining voter turnout highlights society's growing disenchantment with the state.

But experts said that the 2022 protests alone did not result in the record-low turnout in the recent elections.

“This is a reflection of a deeper malaise that extends back to 2009 and traverses through 2017, 2019, and 2022,” Ansari said. “It has been building for some time.”

Despite the historically low turnout, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei praised the “epic” participation of the public. State-run media, meanwhile, spun the elections as a victory over those who called for a boycott.

By claiming victory, the clerical establishment “overlooks the growing absence of support from 60 percent of its population,” said Vaez.

“Such self-approbation [mirrors] the regime’s previous dismissal of the 2022 protests as the result of foreign intrigue rather than reflection of deep discontent,” he said, adding that it represents the Islamic republic’s “continuation of ignoring simmering public discontent.”

Hard-Line Dominance

Around 40 moderates won seats in the new parliament. But the legislature will remain dominated by hard-liners.

The elections were largely seen as a contest between conservatives and ultraconservatives.

“We can say that a more hotheaded and previously marginal wing of the hard-liners scored a victory against more established conservatives,” said Arash Azizi, a senior lecturer in history and political science at Clemson University in South Carolina.

“This is because the former had a more fired-up base and in the absence of popular participation were able to shape the results,” he added.

A more hard-line parliament could have more bark but “certainly” not more bite than its predecessors, according to Vaez.

“The parliament is subservient to the supreme leader and rubber stamps the deep state's strategic decisions, even if grudgingly,” he added.

Since the ultraconservative Ebrahim Raisi, a close ally of Khamenei, was elected as president in 2021, Iran’s hard-liners have dominated all three branches of the government, including the parliament and judiciary.

Other key institutions like the Assembly of Experts and the powerful Guardians Council, which vets all election candidates, are also dominated by hard-liners.

“There is not much left of the system's republican features,” Vaez said. “The Islamic republic is now a minority-ruled unconstitutional theocracy.”

Updated

Iran Cracks Down On Calls For Election Boycott

A woman walks past campaign posters for the parliamentary elections in Tehran.
A woman walks past campaign posters for the parliamentary elections in Tehran.

Several people have been detained in Iran for allegedly calling for a boycott of parliamentary and Assembly of Experts elections scheduled for March 1.

A young woman was arrested on February 28 for "opposing electoral participation" in Tehran's Valiasr Square during an event called "Free Tribune," witnesses told RFE/RL's Radio Farda.

They said the woman estimated to be in her 20s protested in front of a state television camera, symbolically removing her head scarf while declaring, "Vote or no vote, we will not vote."

A street vendor, who claimed to have witnessed the event, said the woman was quickly surrounded and subsequently detained by several security personnel after she waved her scarf over her head in protest.

Other eyewitness accounts detailed the intervention of two female officers, who covered the young woman with a chador cloak, while five male officers forcibly escorted her to a van.

The woman, described as having dyed, long hair and a slim build, was reportedly shouting for the officers to release her. Security forces present at the scene issued warnings to bystanders not to film the arrest and to disperse.

Elections for the parliament, the Majlis, are scheduled for March 1 along with voting to fill the Assembly of Experts, with a majority of would-be candidates already disqualified.

Many Iranians have said they will not vote in what they said will be "meaningless" elections that are likely to consolidate the power of the country's hard-liners.

U.S. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said Iran's elections could not be considered free and fair.

"I suspect that a great number of Iranians have no expectation that those elections will be free and fair," Miller told reporters at the State Department on February 29.

"As you probably already know, thousands of candidates were already disqualified in an opaque process and the world has long known that Iran's political system features undemocratic and nontransparent administrative, judicial, and electoral systems.”

In the lead-up to the election, "Free Tribunes" have been organized by student groups in Tehran, where sentiment against the elections has spilled out.

Similar events have taken place -- in public and online -- in several areas of the country.

In the West Azerbaijan Province, police chief Rahim Jahanbakhsh announced the arrest of 50 people responsible for managing social-media pages that authorities say incited public unrest and discouraged election participation.

The arrests, Jahanbakhsh noted, were conducted in coordination with judicial authorities, though the identities of those detained remain undisclosed.

Jahanbakhsh also warned that publishing any content deemed provocative on social media would be considered a criminal offense.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has tried to push the importance of high voter turnout in the elections after more than a year of unrest that had boosted growing skepticism over the efficacy of participating in the electoral process.

'Engineered Elections': Iran To Vote On Assembly That May Name Next Supreme Leader
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Independent polling on electoral participation is restricted in Iran, with government-conducted surveys rarely made public.

However, a leaked poll from a state-affiliated center suggested a mere 30 perecnt of voters may turn out for the upcoming elections, a figure that was swiftly retracted from publication. In the previous parliamentary elections in 2020, voter turnout was reported at a historic low of approximately 42.6 percent.

Prominent figures, including Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi, have said openly they will boycott the elections, calling them superficial and predetermined. Similarly, Mostafa Tajzadeh, a former deputy interior minister, has voiced his refusal to vote, criticizing the supreme leader's indifference to the country's crises.

The elections also mark the first balloting since the widespread "Women, Life, Freedom" protests, ignited by the 2022 death of Mahsa Amini while in custody of the morality police. The protests led to a heavy-handed response from the government, including widespread arrests and crackdowns on demonstrators. At least 500 protesters were killed.

Written by Ardeshir Tayebi based on an original story in Persian by RFE/RL's Radio Farda

Ahead Of Iran's Elections, A Common Refrain: What's The Point?

A woman walks past election campaign posters for the March 1 parliamentary election in downtown Tehran on February 22.
A woman walks past election campaign posters for the March 1 parliamentary election in downtown Tehran on February 22.

As Iran heads to the polls on March 1, there is a common thread running through many messages from ordinary Iranians.

The elections will usher in a new parliament and Assembly of Experts, a body that picks the country's supreme leader.

But in dozens of audio and written messages sent to RFE/RL's Radio Farda from inside Iran, many people said they will not vote in what they said will be "meaningless" elections that are likely to consolidate the power of the country's hard-liners.

The sample -- although small -- underscores the challenge to the legitimacy of Iran's ruling clerical establishment, amid rising anti-regime sentiment seen most vividly in the unprecedented street protests that rocked the country in 2022.

"You are not people's representatives," an Iranian man said in an audio message. "You want people only for their votes and nothing else. Then you want nothing to do with the people and they are cast aside."

Another man urged people not to vote for a "corrupt regime that has no place in ancient and civilized Iran."

"Isn't it time to say no to executions, dictatorship, and the occupation of my homeland, Iran?" added the man in an audio message sent to Radio Farda.

A woman walks past a campaign billboard picturing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the holy Iranian city of Qom on February 20.
A woman walks past a campaign billboard picturing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the holy Iranian city of Qom on February 20.

The authorities in Iran do not tolerate any form of dissent and have jailed scores of reporters, activists, and lawyers in recent years.

Around 700 prisoners were executed in Iran in 2023, alone, including nine protesters, according to human rights groups.

During the state's brutal crackdown on the months of nationwide protests that erupted in September 2022, at least 500 protesters were killed and thousands were arrested.

The protests began as a rebuke against the brutal enforcement of the hijab, a key pillar of the Islamic republic. But they soon snowballed into one of the most sustained demonstrations against Iran's theocracy, with some protesters calling for an end to clerical rule.

"Today we see that whoever criticizes the clerical dictatorship...is killed, injured, tortured, or imprisoned," said another man in an audio message sent to Radio Farda.

Those who sent audio and written messages to Radio Farda from inside Iran did not reveal their names or locations for fear of retribution.

Calls For Boycott

Scores of prominent Iranians outside the country and political and civil activists in Iran have called for a boycott of the March 1 voting.

Almost 300 political, social, and cultural figures in Iran on February 25 publicly denounced the upcoming vote, calling for people to follow suit and not participate in the "engineered" and "staged" balloting.

A day earlier, imprisoned Iranian human rights lawyer and Nobel Peace Prize winner Narges Mohammadi urged a boycott alongside "national sanctions and global condemnation" of the elections, calling the moves "a political necessity and a moral duty."

Iranian officials and state-run media have accused those calling for a boycott of doing the "enemy's" bidding.

Officials have repeatedly called on eligible voters to cast their ballots in the elections, calling it a religious duty.

The calls have come amid fears of a repeat of the record-low turnouts in the 2020 parliamentary elections and the 2021 presidential vote. Given the widening gulf between the ruling clerics and Iran's young population as well as ongoing state repression and economic mismanagement, the authorities are bracing for another poor turnout, according to experts.

"The elections are meaningless," said a man in another audio message sent to Radio Farda, in reference to what is seen as the grossly unfair playing field in elections in Iran, where candidates are vetted by a hard-line body whose members are directly or indirectly chosen by the supreme leader.

"Taking part in the elections, even if we're indifferent toward all the crimes that have been committed [by the state] in recent years, would only be a mockery of ourselves," the man added.

In another audio message, a man said he "hoped people's patience has run out" and they will not take part in the elections.

This is the only way, he said, to "end this miserable, sad, and poverty-stricken life."

Written by Kian Sharifi based on reporting by RFE/RL's Radio Farda

Scores Of Prominent Iranians Call For Boycott Of 'Staged' Elections

A man and a child walk past campaign posters of parliamentary candidates during the first day of the election campaign in Tehran on February 22.
A man and a child walk past campaign posters of parliamentary candidates during the first day of the election campaign in Tehran on February 22.

Almost 300 political, social, and cultural figures in Iran have publicly denounced the country's parliamentary and Assembly of Experts elections, calling for people to follow suit and not participate in the "engineered" and "staged" balloting.

"The half-hearted position and status of the institution of elections" in Iran has "reached a more deplorable situation, even compared to the previous elections," the group of 275 people, including Morteza Alviri, Abdolali Bazargan, Alireza Rajaei, Ali Babachahi, Alireza Alavitabar, and Abolfazl Ghadiani, said in a statement on February 25.

Elections for the parliament, the Majlis, are scheduled for March 1 along with voting to fill the Assembly of Experts, with a majority of would-be candidates already disqualified.

The statement highlighted the extent of the disqualifications of candidates for the 12th round of elections to the Majlis and said the "deadlock of reforms" points to a deepening crisis within the country's political landscape.

The signatories rejected justifications by some who say that Iranians should still participate even in what is seen as a flawed electoral process, saying that the previous policy of encouraging participation at any cost to push out the Islamic republic's leaders has not only been fruitless, but in fact contributed to the perpetuation of authoritarianism and political stagnation.


Emphasizing the dire state of Iran's current electoral institution, the activists outline a series of prerequisites for holding genuine, fair, and healthy elections.

These include the demand for freedom of speech, for the activities of opposition parties and associations, for the press and media, and the oversight of independent and impartial bodies on election procedures and outcomes.

The activists said those conditions aren't present in the upcoming elections, and therefore they "deem it necessary not to participate in the upcoming elections, which are clearly engineered against the public's sovereignty, and not to give in to this staging."

The statement also warns that without a genuine revival of the institution of elections, real participation in Iran's political process is "unattainable," drawing a bleak comparison to the fate of Lake Urmia, once the largest lake in the Middle East, that has now shrunk to one-10th of its original size.

Written by Ardeshir Tayebi based on an original story in Persian by RFE/RL's Radio Farda

Majority Of Iranians Shunning Workforce Amid Rise In Discontent

People buy slippers from a street vendor at the Grand Bazaar in Tehran. (file photo)
People buy slippers from a street vendor at the Grand Bazaar in Tehran. (file photo)

Almost six out of every 10 Iranians are neither employed or seeking work, while more than half of those who are employed also hold down a side job.

Ghasem Rostampor, the director-general of entrepreneurship and employment planning at the Labor Ministry, told the Tasnim News Agency that 58.5 percent of the country's population is considered inactive, which refers to individuals over the age of 15 who neither have a job nor are looking for one, a sign some analysts say shows the disaffection among younger Iranians with the current regime amid a crackdown on protests over the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in September 2022.

The data contradicts claims by President Ebrahim Raisi's government that it has reduced the unemployment rate to 7.6 percent.

Details from data from the Statistical Center of Iran appear to show that the decrease in the unemployment rate is due to an increase in the country's inactive population instead of a surge in employment opportunities through government job-creation programs.

According to the Statistical Center, the number of active individuals -- those who either have jobs or are looking for work -- has decreased by 520,000 over the past four years, even though the population of those over 15 years of age grew by 2.9 million.

That means that since 2018 about 3.4 million people have given up looking for work and have joined the inactive population segment, the data shows.

The government's unemployment rate is a ratio of unemployed individuals to the country's active population, thus leaving out a large segment of Iranians who are of working age.

The Parliamentary Research Center recently warned about the rise in the inactivity rate of Iran's workforce, especially among younger Iranians. It says the real unemployment rate in the country is about 2.5 times higher than the government's statistics show.

Further distorting the government's data is the fact that official statistics include as employed those who work only one hour a week. Among the 24.8 million employed individuals in the country, 2 million are considered underemployed as they work less than 44 hours a week.

Another growing issue, Rostampor said, is that many those individuals listed as employed do not have formal contracts, thus depriving them of many benefits.

In September 2023, Iran's Misery Index, calculated by the Iranian Statistics Center, rose to 60.4 -- its highest point ever and more than double what it was six years ago. The higher the rating, the worse off people feel.

The index is also seen as a barometer for societal issues, with a direct link to crime rates and even instances of suicide. The most recent index also showed that in the past year, 22 of Iran's 31 provinces reported a reading surpassing the national average, highlighting countrywide discontent.

Several protests have been held by Iranians over the past year in response to declining living standards, wage arrears, and a lack of welfare support.

The death of Amini while in police custody for allegedly wearing a head scarf improperly has added fuel to the unrest, as Iranians have also demonstrated gainst a lack of freedoms and women's rights.

Written by Ardeshir Tayebi based on an original story in Persian by RFE/RL's Radio Farda

How Is the Red Sea Crisis Affecting Shipping And The World Economy?

How Is the Red Sea Crisis Affecting Shipping And The World Economy?
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With Huthi rebels disrupting shipping off the coast of Yemen and in the Red Sea, what impact is this having on shipping, trade, and the world economy? Thomas Juneau is an associate professor of public and international affairs at the University of Ottawa in Canada while Professor Steve Hanke is an economist at Johns Hopkins University in the United States.

Iranian Economy Buoyed By 'Dark Fleet' Oil Shipments To China

The Iranian tanker Arman (right), which was seized in Indonesian waters in 2023 while transferring oil to a foreign tanker. (file photo)
The Iranian tanker Arman (right), which was seized in Indonesian waters in 2023 while transferring oil to a foreign tanker. (file photo)

More than 6,000 kilometers from Tehran, in treacherous waters off the shores of Singapore, a "dark fleet" of oil tankers waits to offload the precious cargo that helps keep Iran's economy afloat -- a dependency that could also sink it.

The fleet has grown steadily over the past five years, delivering Iranian crude to China as the countries work in concert to circumvent international sanctions that target Tehran's lucrative oil exports. But while the clandestine trade has buoyed Iran's budget, it also comes at tremendous cost and risk to Tehran.

Iran gives China a hefty discount to take its banned oil, taking 12 to 15 percent off the price of each barrel to make it worthwhile for Beijing to take on the liability of skirting sanctions, according to research by the data analysis unit of RFE/RL's Radio Farda.

Additional costs add up as well: ship-to-ship operations to offload the oil, middlemen, hidden-money transfers, and rebranding the oil to mask its Iranian origin and make it appear to come from a third country, said Dalga Khatinoglu, an expert on Iranian energy issues.

Altogether, said Khatinoglu, who contributes to Radio Farda's data analysis unit, Iran's budget figures and official statements indicate that 30 percent of the country's potential oil revenue was wasted last year.

And with the draft budget for the next fiscal year currently being debated by the Iranian parliament, there are no guarantees that Tehran's bet on quenching China's thirst for oil will continue to be a panacea.

With Iran almost entirely dependent on Beijing to take its oil and on other entities to facilitate the trade, Tehran has managed to inject desperately needed revenue into its economy. But Iran has also put itself at risk of seeing its main revenue stream dry up.

"There's definitely an extent to which Tehran has become more dependent on the likes of China or those who would be willing to deal with Iran in spite of Western sanctions," said Spencer Vuksic, a director of the consultancy firm Castellum, which closely tracks international sanctions regimes.

Vuksic said Iran is "definitely put in a weak position by having to depend on a single external partner who's willing to deal with and engage with Tehran."

Oily Deficit

Iran has trumpeted its foreign trade, claiming in December that oil revenue had contributed to a positive trade balance for the first eight months of the year.

But the oil and gas sector, by far the largest part of the Iranian economy, will not be enough to save the current budget of around $45 billion that was approved last year.

The Iranian fiscal year, which follows the Persian calendar and will end in March, is expected to result in a major deficit. In presenting the draft budget to parliament in December, President Ebrahim Raisi acknowledged a $10 billion deficit.

But the shortfall could be much higher -- up to $13.5 billion, the largest in Iran's history -- by the end of the fiscal year, according to Radio Farda. This is because data shows that just half of the expected oil revenues were realized, in part due to lower than expected oil prices and additional costs and discounts related to Tehran's oil trade with China.

Whereas the budget expectations were based on oil being sold at $85 per barrel, the price of crude dipped below $75 per barrel in December and has fluctuated wildly recently amid concerns that tensions in the Middle East could disrupt shipping and production.

An Iranian oil platform in the Persian Gulf (file photo)
An Iranian oil platform in the Persian Gulf (file photo)

And while Iran expected to export 1.5 million barrels of oil per day (bpd), it exported only 1.2 million bpd in the first eight months of the year, according to Radio Farda.

Altogether, Radio Farda estimates that Iran lost some $15 million per day in potential revenue through its trade with China, which accounts for more than 40 percent of the Iranian budget.

For the upcoming budget of about $49 billion, expectations for domestic and foreign oil revenue have dipped by 3 percent, according to Khatinoglu, even as the projected budget itself has risen by about 18 percent.

Accounting for the fluctuation of global oil prices, which fell far short of the average estimated for the current year, the peg has been lowered to $71 per barrel. Tehran is also expecting lower oil-export volumes -- which only briefly met forecasts of 1.5 million bpd, the highest levels seen since 2018 -- with only 1.35 million bpd forecast.

Iran is reportedly expected to plug the gap left by the lower oil revenue by increasing taxes on wealthy individuals and businesses, while Khatinoglu says Tehran will try to boost revenue by raising domestic energy prices.

Shipping Competition

Adding to the uncertainty of Iran's finances is the potential for weaker Chinese demand for its oil and competition from Russia which, like Tehran, sends banned oil to Beijing.

And international sanctions are continuously evolving to punish countries and entities that foster Iran's illegal oil trade, threatening to capsize the dark fleet that helps sustain Tehran's so-called resistance economy.

On the other hand, the mercurial nature of oil price fluctuations and demand could work to Iran's advantage. With Venezuelan oil no longer under sanctions, Russia is left as the only competitor for clandestine oil sales to China.

And Iran's capacity to export oil is greater than ever, allowing it to more easily sell its oil to Beijing when demand is high.

This is largely due to the considerable expansion of the global "dark fleet" of oil since crippling U.S. sanctions targeting Iran's oil exports were restored after the United States unilaterally withdrew in 2018 from the Iran nuclear deal that has been agreed with six world powers.

The deal, known formally as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), offered sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on Tehran's controversial nuclear program. After the deal went into effect in January 2016, Iran more than doubled its legal oil exports in a few months, eventually reaching a high of 1.54 million bpd in 2018.

But with the U.S. withdrawal from the deal and subsequent reintroduction of sanctions that year, Iranian oil exports plummeted. And after the exceptions granted to a handful of countries -- including China -- that were allowed to continue to import Iranian oil expired in 2019, Iranian oil exports slowed to a trickle.

This was partly because Iran was not equipped to export its oil and had no immediate customers willing to defy the sanctions. But that changed with the fine-tuning of Iran’s efforts to defy sanctions, the fivefold rise in the number of dark-fleet tankers, and China's willingness to take the risk of doing business with Tehran -- although Beijing has not acknowledged unregistered imports of Iranian oil.

Today the dark fleet of often aging ships -- nearly half of them VLCCs (very large crude carriers) -- has risen to up to 1,000 vessels, according to Vortexa, which tracks international shipping. Many smaller ships are involved in Russian oil exports, which account for about 80 percent of all opaque tanker activity. But Iran had access to nearly 200 tankers, many of them supertankers, as of early 2023, according to Vortexa.

More than 20 ships, 13 of them VLCCs, joined the Iranian fleet in 2023, Vortexa reported in June, contributing to record-high Iranian oil exports under sanctions.

Vortexa attributed the rise to increased Chinese demand, the addition of the new tankers to shuttle Iranian oil after many had switched to shipping Russian oil, and the decline of Iranian inventories drawn down to boost exports amid heightened competition with Russia for the Chinese market.

While Chinese demand for Iranian oil slowed in October, Vortexa noted in a subsequent report, Washington’s removal of oil sanctions on Venezuela that month opened the possibility of higher demand for Iranian oil.

Uncertain Waters

In an October report, the global trade intelligence firm Kpler explained that tankers illegally shipping Iranian oil commonly "go dark" upon entering the Persian Gulf by turning off their transponders, technically known as the automatic identification system (AIS). After visiting Iran's main oil terminal on Kharg Island or other ports, they then reemerge after a few days indicating they are carrying a full load.

From there, the ships offload the oil with ship-to-ship transfers that take place in unauthorized zones, mostly in the Singapore Straits. Eventually the oil, rebranded as coming from Malaysia or Middle Eastern countries, enters China, where it is processed by more than 40 independent "teapot" refiners that have little exposure to international sanctions or the global financial system.

Sanctions Revisited

The challenge for those trying to halt the illicit trade in Iranian oil as a way to hold Tehran accountable for its secretive nuclear activities and dire human rights record, is how to make the negatives of dealing with Iran greater than the financial benefits.

That has put the illicit seaborne trade of oil -- both Iranian and Russian, owing to the ongoing war in Ukraine -- under greater scrutiny by the international community.

"There's continuous refining of the sanctions programs to include and expand sanctions against those involved in evasion, and that includes sanctioning so-called dark fleets," said Castellum’s Vuksic, noting that the number of targeted sanctions against Iranian individuals and entities rose by more than 1,000 last year.

A tanker is photographed by satellite taking on Iranian oil in Asia.
A tanker is photographed by satellite taking on Iranian oil in Asia.

The big question is enforcement, an issue that is being debated in the United States and other countries and is leading to increased calls for countries like Panama to de-flag illegal tankers and for countries to clamp down on dark-fleet ships anchored off their shores.

"My expectation is that governments, including the United States, will take action against these dark fleets, especially the facilitators and the [ship] owners when they're identified," Vuksic told RFE/RL.

Other factors, including concerns about the impact of a broader Middle East conflict potentially involving Iran, could also hurt or help Iran's financial standing.

As Kpler noted while reporting that Chinese imports of Iranian oil had dropped significantly in October, the changing global landscape can have a big effect on the independent Shandong-base refineries that purchase Iranian oil.

"Middle East tensions/threat of stricter enforcement of U.S. sanctions may have turned Shandong refiners more risk-adverse," the global trade intelligence firm wrote in a post on X, formerly Twitter.

In the past week, supply fears also exposed the volatility of global crude prices, potentially to Iran's benefit.

Oil prices rose sharply on January 2 on news that Iran had sent a frigate to the Red Sea and was rejecting calls to end support for attacks by Tehran-backed Huthi rebels that have disrupted shipping in the important trade route.

Prices surged again following the deadly January 3 bombing attack in Iran, for which the Islamic State militant group has claimed responsibility.

But the week ended with questions about the future of Iran's cut-rate deal with the only country willing to help prop up its economy, with Reuters reporting that China's oil trade with Iran had stalled after Tehran withheld supplies and demanded higher prices.

Afghans Banned From 16 Provinces In Iran As Forced Exodus Continues

During the past few months, the rate of Afghans deported from Iran has steadily increased despite efforts by Afghanistan's Taliban-run government to persuade Tehran to give the Afghans more time. (file photo)
During the past few months, the rate of Afghans deported from Iran has steadily increased despite efforts by Afghanistan's Taliban-run government to persuade Tehran to give the Afghans more time. (file photo)

Iran has banned millions of Afghan refugees and migrants in the country from living in, traveling to, or seeking employment in just over half of the country's 31 provinces.

On December 3, Hamzeh Soleimani, the director-general of citizenship and foreign nationals affairs of the western Kermanshah Province, confirmed the ban was in place in 16 provinces nationwide.

"Numerous construction projects, greenhouses and livestock farms underwent inspection under the plan. [This led] to the arrest and expulsion of Afghan workers from the province," he said.

Iranian media have identified 15 of the 16 provinces, including Kermanshah, East Azarbaijan, West Azerbaijan, Ardabil, Zanjan, Kurdistan, Hamedan, Gilan, Mazandaran, Sistan-Baluchistan, Ilam, Lorestan, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, Kahgiluyeh and Boyer Ahmad, and Hormozgan.

In October, Iranian Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi reiterated that Tehran would deport all "illegal" migrants, most of whom are Afghan nationals who fled war, persecution, and poverty.

Tehran estimates that more than 5 million Afghans currently live in the country. Iranian officials now want to deport at least half of them because they do not have the documents to remain in the country.

During the past few months, the rate of Afghans deported from Iran has steadily increased despite efforts by Afghanistan's Taliban-run government to persuade Tehran to give the Afghans more time before embarking on a mass expulsion campaign like Pakistan.

Islamabad is currently deporting thousands of impoverished Afghans daily as part of its campaign to expel more than 1.7 million "undocumented foreigners."

In Iran, Afghans say their life is becoming more complicated with each passing day.

"The situation of Afghan refugees across Iran is very worrying," Sharif Mateen, an Afghan refugee, told RFE/RL's Azadi Radio.

"Police are arresting everyone irrespective of whether they have documents or not. They are then taken to repatriation camps," he added.

WATCH: Despite risks to their safety, thousands of Afghans -- often undocumented -- flock into Iran to find work.

Thousands Of Desperate Afghans Make Risky Journeys Into Iran To Find Work
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Iran has hosted millions of Afghans for more than four decades, but Tehran has often complained of the lack of international aid for hosting them.

More than 70 percent of the 3.6 million Afghans who left their country after the Taliban seized back power in August 2021 fled to Iran.

Data show most are educated, middle-class Afghans who served in the fallen pro-Western Afghan republic's security forces or civil bureaucracy.

Thousands Of Desperate Afghans Make Risky Journeys Into Iran To Find Work

Thousands Of Desperate Afghans Make Risky Journeys Into Iran To Find Work
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Despite risks to their safety, thousands of Afghans -- often undocumented -- flock into Iran to find work. Laborers in the capital of Nimruz Province, Zaranj, told RFE/RL why they take these risks. The UN estimates 2.6 million Afghans live in Iran. Many fled their homeland to escape persecution and a grinding economic crisis after the Taliban seized power in 2021.

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