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Taliban security personnel destroy a poppy plantation in Sher Surkh village of Kandahar Province in April.
Taliban security personnel destroy a poppy plantation in Sher Surkh village of Kandahar Province in April.

Welcome to The Azadi Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that unpacks the key issues in Afghanistan. To subscribe, click here.

I'm Abubakar Siddique, a senior correspondent at RFE/RL's Radio Azadi. Here's what I've been tracking and what I'm keeping an eye on in the days ahead.

The Key Issue

The Taliban appears to have sharply reduced opium cultivation in Afghanistan, the world's largest producer of the illicit drug.

In April 2022, the militant group banned the cultivation, production, and trafficking of all illicit narcotics.

Annual opium cultivation has dropped by as much as 80 percent compared to last year, according to new research by David Mansfield, a leading expert on Afghanistan's drugs trade who worked with Alcis, a British firm specializing in satellite analysis.

Mansfield said the Taliban had "exceeded expectations and reduced poppy cultivation to levels not seen since 2001," when the militant group was ousted from power by the U.S.-led invasion.

Around 80 percent of the opium produced in Afghanistan comes from the southern province of Helmand. Mansfield said satellite imagery appeared to show that in Helmand "poppy cultivation has fallen from more than 120,000 hectares in 2022 to less than 1,000 hectares in 2023."

Why It's Important: Ending Afghanistan's status as one of the world's biggest producers of narcotics has been a priority for neighboring countries and the international community for years.

After 2001, the United States spent some $8 billion in a bid to eradicate the opium trade in Afghanistan. Washington destroyed poppy fields, offered alternative crops to farmers, conducted air strikes, and raided suspected labs. But the strategy largely failed.

For years, the Taliban earned hundreds of millions of dollars from taxing poppy farmers and trafficking narcotics to neighboring countries, from where they ended up in Europe and North America, experts have said.

Since regaining power, the Taliban appears to be succeeding where foreign powers have failed. In 2000, during its first stint in power, the Taliban implemented a similar ban.

Tom West, the U.S. special representative for Afghanistan, tweeted that reports documenting a significant decrease in poppy cultivation "are credible and important."

Michael McCaul, the chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, in a tweet criticized West for praising a group he said, "actively oppress Afghan women and girls, execute them in public, take Americans hostage, provide terrorist safe havens to Al-Qaeda, and are not recognized as a legitimate government by the United States." It appears that he later deleted the tweet.

What's Next: The complete eradication of the drug industry in Afghanistan still appears to be far off.

Even as opium production appears to have decreased, Afghanistan has become a major supplier of crystal meth in recent years.

The militant group is likely to face intense pushback from poppy farmers in southern Afghanistan if it fails to provide them with alternative livelihoods and crops. The Taliban's cash-strapped and isolated government could lose popularity in a region of Afghanistan that has historically provided most of its leaders and fighters.

The Week's Best Stories

International donors and aid agencies have suspended their operations in three provinces in Afghanistan after accusing the Taliban of attempting to divert or manipulate aid distribution. The move has deprived hundreds of thousands of people of crucial assistance as the country grapples with the world's largest humanitarian crisis.

China and Afghanistan's Taliban rulers appear keen on deepening their relationship, with the sides expanding trade links and pushing for deeper cooperation on security. But experts say the relationship is limited and largely transactional.

What To Keep An Eye On

In a new report, global rights watchdog Amnesty International accused the Taliban of committing the war crime of collective punishment against civilians in Afghanistan's northern province of Panjshir.

Since the Taliban seized power in August 2021, Panjshir has been the scene of low-level resistance to the militant group.

Amnesty's June 8 report said that the Taliban had targeted civilians with torture and unlawful killings, while it subjected detained members of the National Resistance Front to extrajudicial executions.

Agnes Callamard, Amnesty's secretary-general, said the Taliban engaged in extrajudicial killings, torture, hostage-taking, unlawful detention, and torching of civilian homes. "This conduct in sum amounts to collective punishment -- in itself, a war crime," she said.

Why It's Important: Amnesty's report, which is based on interviews with victims and witnesses in Panjshir and an analysis of open-source material, is yet another example of the grave human rights abuses allegedly committed by the Taliban.

The Taliban is unlikely to act on the recommendations of the report, which called on the hard-line group to investigate the alleged abuses and prosecute and punish the perpetrators.

The Taliban is likely to continue using brute force to silence its opponents and critics, including members of the former government and security forces, activists, journalists, and those from religious minorities.

Until next time,

Abubakar Siddique

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Friday.

Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani (left), Qatar's prime minister and foreign minister, and Afghan Supreme Leader Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada (combo photo)
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani (left), Qatar's prime minister and foreign minister, and Afghan Supreme Leader Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada (combo photo)

Welcome back to The Azadi Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that unpacks the key issues in Afghanistan. To subscribe, click here.

I'm Mustafa Sarwar, a senior news editor at RFE/RL's Radio Azadi. Here's what I've been tracking and what I'm keeping an eye on in the days ahead.

The Key Issue

The Taliban's reclusive leader held a secret meeting with the Qatari prime minister in Afghanistan last month, according to media reports.

It was believed to be the first meeting between Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada and a foreign leader since the Taliban seized power in 2021.

Taliban and Qatari officials have not commented on the reported meeting, which is believed to have taken place in the southern city of Kandahar, the de facto capital under the militant group’s rule.

Why It's Important: It is unclear what Akhundzada and Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani discussed.

But the talks were seen as part of renewed efforts by the Taliban to ease its international isolation. The Taliban-led government remains unrecognized and has been hit by international sanctions.

The hard-line Islamist group’s restrictions on female education and employment as well as its human rights abuses have made it an international pariah.

Heather Barr of Human Rights Watch, however, said the Taliban’s reported willingness to engage with the international community is not new.

"I don't think it's a new willingness -- just new to see Akhundzada. The Taliban have always been keen, since [August 2021], to press their demands -- for engagement, aid, recognition, congratulations. Parallel to these talks, their crackdown on women/girls has steadily continued & deepened," Barr said on Twitter.

What's Next: It is unclear what effect the meeting will have. Akhundzada has so far been unwilling to reverse Taliban policies that have provoked widespread outrage inside and outside Afghanistan.

It appears unlikely that the international community will recognize the Taliban and resume crucial development assistance to Afghanistan until the group creates a broad-based government and ends its repression of women and girls.

The Week's Best Stories

Tensions remain high following the deadly clashes between Iranian and Taliban border troops over cross-border water supplies. But while both Tehran and the Taliban are doubling down on their water rights, they are leaving the door open for a diplomatic resolution.

The Taliban-led government in Afghanistan has ordered all taxi drivers in the capital, Kabul, to change the color of their vehicles to turquoise, infuriating many cabbies. Officials say the new color code will reduce kidnappings and other crimes.

What To Keep An Eye On

Taliban fighters and Iranian border guards exchanged heavy gunfire on May 27, leading to casualties on both sides.

The clashes occurred across the shared border between southeastern Iran and southwestern Afghanistan, with each side accusing the other of firing first.

Taliban officials said one Afghan border guard was killed, and several people were wounded. Iranian media said that up to three Iranian border guards were killed.

Since then, the sides have exchanged threats and reportedly sent reinforcements along the shared 900-kilometer border.

Why It's Important: The deadly clashes come amid a growing dispute over cross-border water resources.

Iran has accused the Taliban of violating a water treaty signed between Kabul and Tehran in 1973, a claim that the militant group rejects.

Disputes over water resources are likely to increase as both countries grapple with severe drought.

In the 1990s, during the Taliban’s first stint in power, the group was on the brink of war with Iran. But observers say the dispute over water resources is unlikely to lead to a conflict, with both sides calling for dialogue to help resolve their differences.

That's all from me for now. Don't forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you have.

Until next time,

Mustafa Sarwar

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Friday.

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Radio Azadi is RFE/RL's Dari- and Pashto-language public service news outlet for Afghanistan. Every Friday in our newsletter, the Azadi Briefing, correspondent Abubakar Siddique shares his analysis of the week’s most important issues and explain why they matter.

To subscribe, click here.

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