The Taliban's four-year quest for legitimacy received a major boost last month when Russia became the first country to formally recognize the group's rule in Afghanistan.
While the Kremlin's decision is largely symbolic, it could still yield strategic benefits for Moscow. Recognition allows Russia to project itself as a bold global power unafraid to challenge Western norms, especially after setbacks in regions like the Middle East.
By taking the initiative, Moscow aims to restore its reputation as an agenda-setter in international affairs, potentially encouraging other nations -- particularly in Central Asia -- to follow suit and normalize ties with the Taliban.
This could enhance Russia's standing in Central Asia, where Afghanistan's stability directly affects neighbors like Tajikistan, and position Moscow as a central player in regional diplomacy.
Will Russia's Validation Trigger A Domino Effect?
In Central Asia, countries like Kazakhstan -- already having delisted the Taliban as a terrorist group and engaged in high-level talks -- appear poised to consider formal ties, driven by shared concerns over border security and stability.
Uzbekistan and Tajikistan also show signs of warming relations, potentially influenced by Moscow's lead to foster collective counterterrorism efforts.
Beyond the region, Russian-aligned states such as Belarus, which has traditionally followed the Kremlin's line, could join the recognition bandwagon.
Global powerhouse China has welcomed Russia's move to recognize the Taliban government, saying it "aimed to pursue a policy of friendship with the Afghan people." Yet Beijing has stopped short of explicitly stating whether that will include formal recognition.
In neighboring Iran, deep-seated public wariness toward the Taliban persists. While Tehran has maintained economic and diplomatic engagement, including hosting Taliban officials and facilitating trade, it has given no indication that it intends to follow Russia's example.
Recognition by China or Iran is not imminent, but geopolitical pragmatism -- spurred by Russia's leap -- could bring both countries closer over time, especially if Afghanistan stabilizes and aligns with their strategic interests.
Meanwhile, caution prevails among Arab states in the Persian Gulf. The United Arab Emirates, despite managing Afghan airports and accepting Taliban diplomats, remains hesitant due to its Western alliances. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, prioritizes domestic reforms over risky diplomatic endorsements. Qatar and Oman continue pragmatic engagements but avoid full recognition to sidestep US scrutiny.
What's In It For Russia?
Arguably the main gain for Moscow is strengthened collaboration against security threats, according to Aleksei Sakharov, a fellow with the Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation.
"The primary objective is to step up counterterrorism cooperation, specifically against ISKP," he said, referring to the Islamic State-Khorasan Province militant group, the most active affiliate of IS.
In recent years, ISKP has expanded its operations beyond Afghanistan, drawing militants from Central Asian nations, especially Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. It notably claimed a high-profile attack in Russia in March 2024, when four militants targeted the Crocus City Hall concert venue outside Moscow, killing 145 people in a mass shooting, stabbing, and arson attack.
For the most part, though, Sakharov argued, the Kremlin's recognition of the Taliban is "a symbolic gesture that does not guarantee any upgrade to Moscow's position in Afghanistan." While recognition may streamline partnerships, he said, much of the practical cooperation could have proceeded informally.
The Taliban, meanwhile, stands to gain considerably from this endorsement, which bolsters its quest for international legitimacy and could break the group's diplomatic isolation -- something that has raised concern among Afghan rights activists.
As the de facto rulers of Afghanistan for four years, the Taliban views Russia's step as a validation of its governance, potentially unlocking broader economic engagement.
Moreover, the symbolic weight of recognition from a UN Security Council permanent member like Russia could improve the Taliban's negotiating position in international forums, encouraging dealings without immediate demands for reforms on issues like women's rights or inclusivity.
Former Afghan legislator Shukria Barakzai, who fled the country after the Taliban returned to power, warned that Russia could go as far as adopting positions at the UNSC that benefit only the Taliban.
"Russia has chosen to disregard women's and human rights, prioritizing the interests of one group over those of the entire nation," she told RFE/RL's Radio Azadi.
She also dismissed speculation about Afghanistan reaping economic benefits from the Taliban being formally recognized by Russia, saying, "It is a mistake to think this will have economic benefits for Afghans."
