Azadi Briefing

Welcome to The Azadi Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that unpacks the key issues in Afghanistan. To subscribe, click here.

I'm Abubakar Siddique, senior correspondent at RFE/RL's Radio Azadi. Here's what I've been tracking and what I'm keeping an eye on in the days ahead.

The Key Issue

Plans by the Afghan Taliban to build a hydroelectric dam on a major river in eastern Afghanistan have raised concerns in neighboring Pakistan.

A spokesman for the Taliban's Water and Energy Ministry said on December 18 that the “survey and design of the project are complete.” Matiullah Abid told RFE/RL’s Radio Azadi that construction of the dam on the Kunar River would begin when “funds are available.”

A Pakistani provincial minister said the unilateral decision by the Taliban to build the dam “will be considered a hostile act against Pakistan.”

Jan Achakzai, the provincial information minister in the southwestern province of Balochistan, warned of “severe consequences,” including “escalating tensions and potential conflict.”

The 480-kilometer-long Kunar River originates in the Hindu Kush mountains in northeastern Afghanistan and merges with the Kabul River before flowing downstream into Pakistan.

Why It's Important: Afghanistan’s rivers are a significant source of fresh water for Pakistan. But the two neighbors have never signed a bilateral water-sharing agreement.

Disputes over Kabul’s plans to build dams on major rivers, which would reduce the flow of water to Pakistan, threaten to be a source of tension and conflict between the two countries.

The planned hydroelectric dam on the Kunar River is the latest ambitious infrastructure project undertaken by the cash-strapped Taliban government, which remains internationally unrecognized.

Experts said the extremist group lacks the expertise and finances to fund the project. “Constructing dams requires technical know-how, a robust supply chain, and a lot of money," said Najib Aqa Fahim, an Afghan water-management expert.

Najibullah Sadid, another Afghan water expert, said the dam on the Kunar River is relatively small and will not threaten water flows to Pakistan.

“Pakistani officials are exaggerating the dam's impact," he told Radio Azadi. “It will be a small dam aimed at generating electricity, which will store little water.”

What's Next: The Taliban’s hydropower plans could exacerbate tensions between the Afghan Taliban and Pakistan.

The longtime allies have fallen out over the Afghan extremist group’s alleged sheltering of the Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militant group, which has waged a yearslong insurgency against Islamabad.

Pakistan has been accused of using pressure tactics to force the Taliban to sever ties with the TTP, including by expelling hundreds of thousands of Afghan refugees from Pakistan, shutting key border crossings, and blocking Afghan transit goods in recent months.

What To Keep An Eye On

It has been one year since the Taliban banned women from attending all public and private universities in Afghanistan, in a move that attracted widespread condemnation.

Afghan women, speaking to Radio Azadi, described the toll of the ban. “When I see boys continuing their education, I lose all hope and wish that I was not born a girl," said Spozhmai, who was a medical student in Kabul.

Saira, a medical student in the western city of Herat, said she cannot bear seeing her male classmates graduate, while she was largely confined to staying at home.

Why It's Important: Despite growing international pressure, the Taliban appears unlikely to reverse its severe restrictions on female education.

The extremist group has also banned girls above the sixth grade from attending school.

Without lifting the restrictions, the Taliban is unlikely to gain international recognition or legitimacy among Afghans.

That's all from me for now. Don't forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you have. You can always reach us at azadi.english@rferl.org.

Until next time,

Abubakar Siddique

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Friday.

*Please note that the next newsletter will be issued on January 5.

Welcome to The Azadi Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that unpacks the key issues in Afghanistan. To subscribe, click here.

I'm Abubakar Siddique, senior correspondent at RFE/RL's Radio Azadi. Here's what I've been tracking and what I'm keeping an eye on in the days ahead.

The Key Issue

A suicide bomber killed 23 soldiers in an attack on a military base in northwestern Pakistan on December 12, in one of the deadliest attacks against Pakistani security forces in years.

The Tehrik-e Jihad Pakistan (TJP), a lesser-known militant group, claimed responsibility for the attack in the district of Dera Ismail Khan. Islamabad and some experts believe the group is a front for the Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP), also known as the Pakistani Taliban.

Following the deadly attack, Islamabad delivered a strongly-worded message to the Afghan Taliban demanding that it hand over TTP leaders allegedly hiding in Afghanistan.

One provincial Pakistani minister even called for retaliatory attacks inside Afghanistan.

The Taliban's chief spokesman, Zabihullah Mujahid, pledged a probe but reiterated Kabul’s stance that it is not responsible for Islamabad’s security while pointing out that the attack occurred deep inside Pakistani territory.

Why It's Important: The attack further inflamed tensions between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban, longtime allies who have fallen out over the Afghan extremist group’s alleged sheltering of the TTP.

Abdul Sayed, a Sweden-based researcher, said Pakistan is ramping up pressure on the Afghan Taliban to cut ties with the TTP. But he said the TJP, which only entered the scene in the past year, allows the TTP and its Afghan ally to maintain a position of plausible deniability.

Sayed said the emergence of the TJP, which has claimed responsibility for several high-casualty attacks against Pakistani forces in recent months, marks a new phase in the TTP’s insurgency against Islamabad.

“These attacks exclusively focus on security forces, sparing civilian casualties,” he said, referring to the TTP's past policy of attacking civilian targets.

What's Next: There are no signs that the TJP, the TTP, or other militant groups will ease their attacks against Pakistani forces.

On December 15, three soldiers and three suspected militants were killed in attacks on a regional police headquarters and two military posts in northwest Pakistan. A new armed group called Ansar al-Jihad has claimed responsibility for the attacks.

Pakistan's powerful army chief, General Asim Munir, is touring Washington in an apparent bid to solicit Washington's support for what Islamabad considers to be its new domestic war on terrorism.

But analysts remain skeptical about U.S. military support for Islamabad.

What To Keep An Eye On

The U.S. Treasury has slapped sanctions on a former Afghan official, his son, and related entities, accusing them of misappropriating millions of dollars of funds provided by U.S. government contracts.

In a December 11 statement, the Treasury said former Afghan parliament speaker Mir Rahman Rahmani and his son Ajmal Rahmani “perpetrated a complex procurement corruption scheme resulting in the misappropriation of millions of dollars from U.S. Government-funded contracts that supported Afghan security forces.”

On December 8, the Treasury also sanctioned two senior Taliban officials for serious human rights abuses.

Fariduddin Mahmood, the head of the Taliban’s Academy of Sciences, and Khalid Hanafi, the minister for the propagation of virtue and prevention of vice, were designated “for serious human rights abuse related to the repression of women and girls, including through the restriction of access to secondary education for women and girls in Afghanistan.”

Why It's Important: Mir Rahman Rahmani is one of the most prominent figures from the former Western-backed Afghan government to be sanctioned by Washington.

It is unclear if the measures against him will trigger similar actions against other former Afghan officials accused of corruption.

U.S. sanctions against senior Taliban officials appear designed to punish the group over its severe restrictions on women’s rights.

Rights abuses and corruption are regarded as some of the key drivers of the four-decade-old war in Afghanistan.

That's all from me for now. Don't forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you have. You can always reach us at azadi.english@rferl.org.

Until next time,

Abubakar Siddique

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Friday.