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Friday 1 July 2022

A Kazakh villager carries a bucket of water from a well in a desert that once formed the bed of the Aral Sea. (file photo)
A Kazakh villager carries a bucket of water from a well in a desert that once formed the bed of the Aral Sea. (file photo)

Water is arguably the most important resource in Central Asia. It is vital for agriculture, which feeds and provides livelihoods for the region’s predominantly rural population, as well as for hydropower stations that generate electricity for domestic consumption and export.

But this resource is at risk.

According to the 2019 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, temperatures in Central Asia are rising faster than the global average. Scientists predict that the region will become dryer, and more parts of it will turn into deserts. Glaciers are melting at unprecedented speed. The World Bank report published last September estimated that Central Asia could see as many as 5 million internal climate migrants by 2050.

Over the past five years, Central Asian countries have already seen some of the worst droughts, which has led to shortages of water for irrigation and hydropower. This, in turn, has pushed prices for food up and caused electricity shortages. And in 2021, the deadliest border conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan in years started as a water dispute between local residents, although other factors played a role too.

In a live discussion on June 30, I spoke with Shahzoda Alikhanova, a natural resources management specialist from Uzbekistan who is currently a doctoral researcher at the Durrell Institute of Conservation Ecology at the University of Kent, and Sher Khashimov, a journalist from Tajikistan, about the impact of these environmental shifts on local communities, adaptation for a hotter and dryer future, and a lack of local scientific research and policy on grappling with climate change.

Some key takeaways:

Shahzoda Alikhanova (Uzbekistan): “I would say that the biggest threat not only to Uzbekistan but across Central Asia is water shortages. Uzbekistan is a downstream country, and we are highly dependent on water resources and we don’t generate our water. But water is crucial for agricultural production. I would say that farmers will be the most vulnerable, and they would be those who suffer the most because of the increasing droughts. There are different reports saying that crop yields across Central Asia are expected to decrease by 30-40 percent by mid-century. As precipitation patterns change, landslides and mudslides mostly occur in mountainous areas while droughts affect lowlands.”

Sher Khashimov (Tajikistan): “For the most part, I don’t think people in Tajikistan understand how climate change is going to impact electricity production. Part of it has to do not only with the lack of knowledge but also with a lack of transparency on the part of the government. Usually, when the country’s energy systems face water shortages, and they are forced to shut down electricity access to certain communities in Tajikistan, the government just tells people that these are system maintenance days and they should gain access to electricity back in a few hours, maybe, a few days. But the government never acknowledges the larger systemic issues behind electricity shortages, which prevents people from understanding how it’s all connected to melting glaciers and climate change.”

Listen to the full conversation here:

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Read more on the subject from RFE/RL:

'Left With Just The Clothes We Were Wearing': Devastating Flood Made Kyrgyz Man An Environmental Migrant

The Curious Case Of Central Asia's Severe Electricity Shortages

Power Failure: Central Asia Relies On Coal To Get Through The Winter

Let It Rain: Anger, Frustration Increase As Central Asia's Drought Continues

Follow @RFERL on Twitter so as not to miss our regular conversations on life and social change in Central Asia every Thursday at 3 p.m. in Prague/9 a.m. in Washington (7 p.m. local time in Bishkek/Almaty/Astana, and 6 p.m local time in Tashkent/Dushanbe/Ashgabat).

We will return with a new episode on July 14.

A file photo of Nursultan Nazarbaev (center) and his family in 1992. A lot of the former Kazakh president's relatives attained great wealth and power during his time at the helm.
A file photo of Nursultan Nazarbaev (center) and his family in 1992. A lot of the former Kazakh president's relatives attained great wealth and power during his time at the helm.

In Central Asia, power and wealth are often kept and passed down in a family. But the concept of blood ties goes beyond immediate or extended family members. Political alliances and influential clans are also organized around tribal or regional kinship, which goes back centuries to the times when today’s Central Asian nations were a group of separate tribes.

These days, clan politics is blamed for being a driving force behind rampant nepotism, regional division, and wealth inequality in the region. But for ordinary people, these kinship-based networks are often a source of social cohesion and mutual support.

Simple questions such “Which part of the country are you from?” or “Where is your family from?” or “What tribe do you belong to?” allow the asking party to almost build a mini-profile of another person’s roots, any shared blood relations, and even character traits attributed to that particular tribe.

In a live discussion on June 23, I spoke with Shalkar Nurseitov, a political analyst from Kazakhstan, about the role of tribalism and kinship in the present and the future of his country.

Unfortunately, our second announced speaker, Kyrgyz anthropologist Aksana Ismailbekova, couldn’t join due to technical issues.

Some key takeaways:

Shalkar Nurseitov: “In Kazakhstan, we have three zhuzes: Ender Zhuz, Middle Zhuz, and Junior Zhuz. There is no consensus among historians on their history, but there are some theories. [...] There are stereotypes. For example, it is believed that the representatives of the Elder zhuz should lead the country and occupy main political positions. There’s a stereotype that members of Junior Zhuz tend to be more aggressive and protest all the time. In the past 30 years, most of political protests actually took place in western Kazakhstan, which is occupied by the tribes of Junior Zhuz.”

“Tribalism plays a great role in politics and business but in daily life people are not concerned about kinship division. They consider this question when they get married because it’s very important to marry someone who doesn’t belong to your tribe. Most of the people in Kazakhstan can recite seven generations. But for the most [part], especially those living in cities, kinship division is not important in daily life. Because of capitalism, new social rules, social media, or news consumption, people are getting, in my view, less concerned about tribalism.”

Listen to the full conversation here:

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0:00 0:33:23 0:00

Read more on the subject from RFE/RL:

A Powerful Kyrgyz Clan’s Political Play

Nepotism And Dynasty In Central Asian Politics

Nonstop Nepotism: Uzbek President's Son-In-Law Named MMA Chief In Latest Sign Of Creeping Family Control

Its Media Muzzled, Tajikistan Prepares To Extend Ruling Family's Grip On Power

Is A Battle For Power Raging Within Kazakhstan's Government?

Follow @RFERL on Twitter so as not to miss our regular conversations on life and social change in Central Asia every Thursday at 3 p.m. in Prague/9 a.m. in Washington (7 p.m. local time in Bishkek/Almaty/Astana, and 6 p.m. local time in Tashkent/Dushanbe/Ashgabat).

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