China In Eurasia

BELGRADE -- The NATO air campaign had been in full swing in Yugoslav skies for more than a month as the Western military alliance tried to end the deadly assault by Serbian forces on ethnic Albanians in Kosovo.

But on May 7, 1999, the NATO bombardment escalated and set off a series of events that still bind Beijing and Belgrade together more than 20 years later.

Five NATO bombs from U.S. jets hit the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade, setting the building ablaze as dramatic scenes of employees covered in blood and dust escaping from the wreckage unfolded.

Chinese officials and politicians close to Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic quickly appeared at the site to denounce NATO and protests began outside the U.S. Embassy in Beijing that turned violent after the compound was attacked.

At least 20 people were injured and three killed in the bombing, including two Chinese journalists who were killed by a bomb that hit the embassy's sleeping quarters.

Nearly a quarter of a century later, the site of the bombed former embassy is being transformed into an expansive Chinese cultural center set to be one of the largest in all of Europe. It will house classrooms, a Confucius Institute, exhibitions, office space for Chinese and Serbian companies, and also accommodation for diplomats and other visiting delegations.

Once opened, it will serve not only as a potent symbol of China’s growing presence in the Balkans, but also of the perceived tragedy and humiliation suffered by Beijing and Belgrade at the hands of the West.

“That’s why this place brings such symbolism. It’s not only a vision of the future for relations between Serbia and China -- it’s also about lamenting the past together,” Stefan Vladisavljev, an expert on Beijing’s role in the Balkans and program director at Foundation BFPE, a Belgrade-based think tank, told RFE/RL.

As China rapidly extends its reach in the Balkans, its growing influence is unmistakable in Serbia. While Chinese ties date back to the Yugoslav era, the relationship between the world’s most populous country and Belgrade has expanded under the rule of President Aleksandar Vucic, who was first elected in 2017. Billions of dollars in Chinese investment have also flooded into Serbia in recent years, funding mines and factories across the country as billions more in infrastructure loans have built roads, bridges, and new facilities.

In moves that have also caught the attention of Washington and Brussels, the Serbian government has also purchased drones and missile-defense systems from China and bought thousands of Huawei surveillance systems that have facial-recognition capabilities.

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But China’s presence is also growing in more subtle ways that the new cultural center will look to build upon. Serbian universities have inked cooperation agreements with their Chinese counterparts and the Balkan country is home to two state-run Confucius Institutes. The Serbian government also recently reached an agreement on direct flights with China.

“We should look at [the center] as not only a hub for China’s presence in Serbia, but also as a hub with the potential to spread the influence of Chinese companies and culture across the Balkans,” Vladisavljev said.

The Ties That Bind

Unanswered questions in the bombing’s aftermath would fuel speculation that the strikes were targeted, but NATO and U.S. officials have strenuously denied that it was deliberate and no clear evidence otherwise has since come to light. China would go on to receive $28 million in compensation from Washington for the bombing but the reputational damage appears irreversible, with many in China and Serbia still viewing it as an intentional strike.

Those events have also helped lay the symbolic foundation for the new Chinese cultural center.

The building’s sleek design and shiny edifice sits at a location redubbed Serbia-China Friendship Square and the center features a statue of Chinese philosopher Confucius with a monument and plaque to those killed during the embassy bombing not far from the entrance.

Serbian and Chinese officials still hold an annual commemoration ceremony on May 7 at the site and it has become a regular stop for visiting Chinese dignitaries, including Chinese leader Xi Jinping during a 2016 state visit to Belgrade. Prior to the pandemic and China’s strict lockdown measures that have limited travel for Chinese citizens, the monument would also be visited by busloads of Chinese tourists during Balkan tours.

In addition to honoring those killed in the bombing, the events of 1999 have been a springboard for Beijing’s ties with Serbia. China supported Belgrade rhetorically and at the United Nations during the Kosovo War, opposing NATO airstrikes alongside Russia even before the embassy bombing. Beijing has also not recognized Kosovo, which formally declared independence from Serbia in 2008.

Ties between the two countries received a jumpstart with the launch of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and a new era of investments and engagement with Serbia was paved by the construction of the Pupin Bridge across the Danube in Belgrade, a project mainly financed with a $217 million loan from China’s Export-Import Bank.

The bridge has become an emblematic monument to China’s newfound place in Serbia and was officially opened during a 2014 visit by Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang. The successful project also delivered a soft-power boost to China, with many Belgrade residents referring to it as the “Chinese bridge,” despite it being named after Mihajlo Pupin, a heralded Serbian physicist who lived and earned his accolades in the United States.

“Soft power always follows hard power and economic power is undoubtedly part of China’s hard power,” Nenad Stekic, a research fellow at the Institute of International Politics and Economics, a government-funded think tank in Belgrade, told RFE/RL. “In the eyes of Serbian people, all Chinese activities here -- including hard investments -- will be better perceived if they are complemented by the soft component of China’s cultural power.”

While corruption and environmental scandals have followed many Chinese investment projects around the world and hurt Beijing’s image on the ground, polls show that China is largely well received in Serbia.

In an August survey, the Belgrade-based Institute for European Affairs found that 79.4 percent of respondents see China positively, which the researchers said was partly attributable to perceptions around Chinese deliveries of vaccines during the pandemic and sustained economic investment in Serbia.

'Waiting For Xi’'

Despite not yet being officially opened, the Chinese cultural center in Belgrade appears to be in full swing.

The building is administered by the Chinese Embassy -- which did not respond to RFE/RL’s request for comment about its opening date and its operations -- and both foreign and local staff are coming and going regularly. The plaza around the center features a collection of restaurants and cafes and an affiliated Chinese-themed hotel nearby, which also hosts a recently opened upscale Chinese restaurant.

The center was originally slated to open in 2019 to correspond with the 20th anniversary of the embassy bombing, but was delayed due to construction setbacks and the COVID-19 pandemic.

On March 3, Serbian Prime Minister Ana Brnabic attended a ribbon-cutting ceremony for the Chamber of Chinese Companies, which is housed within the center and already hosts several firms. But the official opening date has still not been made public.

Local analysts and China-watchers have speculated that Chinese and Serbian authorities are waiting for a state visit to Belgrade from Xi to officially launch the center.

In 2019, Vucic announced that another visit from Xi was in the works for early 2020, but this never came to fruition amid the pandemic and the Chinese leader’s international isolation, which saw him not leave China for nearly three years.

But Xi made his first trip abroad to Central Asia in mid-September and with travel back on the agenda, Vladisavljev says Serbian diplomats are likely in overdrive pushing for another visit by the Chinese leader to Belgrade.

“Even if there are already companies and people going in and out, there is a saying in Serbia: It’s not open until Vucic has opened it,” he said. “And Vucic is waiting for Xi.”

At a time of increasing animosity with the West, Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin met in person for the first time since the start of the Ukraine war to showcase their strong ties.

The two authoritarian leaders gathered on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Uzbekistan's ancient Silk Road city of Samarkand in a show meant to signal deeper coordination and unity between the two countries and reaffirm their relationship amid major battlefield setbacks for Moscow in its nearly seven-month war in Ukraine, which has seen China walk a cautious but supportive line for the Kremlin.

Putin hinted at their September 15 meeting that Beijing may not be satisfied with Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, saying he understood that Xi had "questions and concerns" but praised the Chinese leader for what he called a "balanced" position on the war.

"We highly value the balanced stance of our Chinese friends when it comes to the Ukraine crisis," Putin said during the meeting. "We understand your questions and concerns about this. During today's meeting, we will of course explain our position."

Amid their discussion, Xi referred to Putin as an "old friend" and Putin offered a full-throated endorsement of Beijing's positions over Taiwan and its One China policy that recognizes the self-governing island as part of mainland China. A readout of their conversation showed that Xi did not mention Ukraine or NATO in the talks.

This marks the first meeting between Putin and Xi since February in Beijing just days before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, when they signed a joint statement declaring the partnership between the two countries had "no limits."

Despite different tones, the leaders were eager to voice their opposition to the United States and what Putin deemed a "unipolar" world order led by the United States that Beijing and Moscow both sought to move against.

"We are ready," Xi said, according to a Kremlin readout, "together with our Russian colleagues, to set an example of a responsible world power and play a leading role in bringing such a rapidly changing world onto a trajectory of sustainable and positive development."

But while Xi and Putin displayed a deepening of ties, the path forward amid a grinding war in Ukraine, global economic shocks, and an altered geopolitical landscape across Eurasia is far from straightforward.

A Symbolic Meeting

Set up in 2001, the SCO consisted of China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan before expanding in 2017 to include India and Pakistan. The summit offers a symbolic venue for the leaders as they look to deepen their partnership and voice opposition to the West.

Xi is also looking to highlight his power abroad after strengthening his control in the lead-up to an important Chinese Communist Party congress next month where he is expected to receive a third term as leader.

"The reason for this meeting at the end of the day is very different for each side, but it's ultimately about optics," Raffaello Pantucci, a senior fellow at London's Royal United Services Institute, told RFE/RL. "Putin wants to show the West that he isn't isolated and still has friends in Asia. For Xi, it's about showing that he is a key powerbroker and just as respected as a leader around the world as he is at home."

Throughout the war, Beijing has refrained from condemning Russia's invasion and offered a diplomatic lifeline to Moscow. Chinese oil companies have also been a top buyer of discounted Russian energy and other raw materials. Beijing also has kept up its military links with Russia, taking part in large-scale war games in the Far East earlier this month.

Both Beijing and Moscow view the SCO as a vehicle to oppose Western-led institutions and offer what officials from both countries have framed as an alternative world order. China also appears eager to respond to the United States following an August visit to Taiwan by U.S. House of Representatives speaker Nancy Pelosi, which Beijing said was "provocative."

According to The Wall Street Journal, the decision to use part of Xi's first trip abroad in nearly three years to meet with Putin was partly a reaction to Pelosi's visit.

"Both leaders are attracted to the idea of building a non-Western international order," said Pantucci. "The SCO is in many ways a flimsy institution, but this shows how they can engage more with it and other institutions like it to offer an alternative path."

Still, Beijing has taken a pragmatic approach and has shown that despite its declaration of a "no-limits" dynamic with Russia, China does appear to have its red lines.

China has so far complied with sanctions against Russia over Ukraine, with some Chinese companies even cutting ties with Moscow to avoid violating the measures and damaging its access to Western markets.

Despite the meeting in Samarkand, China has not signaled any deviation from this line that it has followed since Russian tanks first rolled into Ukraine in late February.

Xi's Balancing Act

All eyes were on Xi and Putin at the SCO, but their tete-a-tete was far from the only meeting on the sidelines of the summit. The diplomatic gathering, along with Xi's Central Asian tour this week, represents a long-term Chinese foreign policy strategy.

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While Xi in many respects doubled down on China's relationship with Russia while in Uzbekistan, the Chinese leader is performing a difficult balancing act for his Eurasian diplomacy while attending the SCO.

China has invested heavily over the years in its relations with countries in Central Asia and Beijing is looking to further cultivate those ties while at the SCO, having already signed a slew of trade and investment pacts with countries in the region.

Amid the fallout from the war, Central Asian countries -- Kazakhstan, in particular -- have also become uncomfortable with Moscow's invasion of Ukraine and growing pressure from the Kremlin.

Beijing has tried to show a sensitivity to these anxieties, with Xi beginning his regional trip on September 14 in Nur-Sultan where he met with his counterpart, Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev, and said China "will continue to resolutely support Kazakhstan in protecting its independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity."

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"On the one hand, China will provide diplomatic support for Russia and broad commitments to a Beijing-Moscow entente whose principal rationale and focus is to counterbalance Washington," Evan Feigenbaum, vice president at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of state, wrote recently.

"On the other [hand], China will continue de facto compliance with Western sanctions to avoid painting a target on its own back, and it will deploy mealy-mouthed language about 'peace' and 'stability' aimed at placating the Central Asian nations and partners in the 'global south' that are uneasy about Moscow's war in Ukraine," he added.

Long-Term Shift

Neither explicitly an economic or military bloc, the SCO was originally envisaged as a forum through which China and Russia could manage their shared authority over Eurasia and improve relations with their neighbors.

But the Ukraine war has thrown that strategy off balance.

The aftermath of the invasion has seen Russia's economy shrink, its relations with neighbors damaged, and its influence weakened while Moscow has become increasingly dependent on China both economically and politically.

During their meeting in Samarkand, Putin appeared deferential to Xi by praising the Chinese leader, saying he respects his "balanced stance" on the war in Ukraine, backing Beijing's One China policy, and opposing "provocations" by the United States in the Taiwan Strait.

For years, analysts have warned that relations between Beijing and Moscow could become increasingly unbalanced in China's favor, leading to Russia becoming a junior partner in any future dynamic.

"There's no doubt that the power balance has shifted between them. Things used to be much more equal between [Xi and Putin]," said Pantucci. "This is a trend that's been under way for some time and this meeting is further affirmation of it."