China In Eurasia

Welcome back to the China In Eurasia briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter tracking China's resurgent influence from Eastern Europe to Central Asia.

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Reid Standish and here's what I'm following right now.

Previewing Xi's Big Europe Trip

Chinese leader Xi Jinping will visit Hungary, Serbia, and France on a high-profile tour in early May, marking his first trip to Europe since the pandemic.

Here's what to watch.

Finding Perspective: The trip will be rich in symbolism and comes at a crucial time with Russia advancing on the battlefield in Ukraine, escalating trade tensions between Beijing and Brussels, and potential fallout from November's U.S. election.

Against this backdrop, Xi will be looking to repair some of the damage done to the relationship with Europe since his last trip to the continent. In particular, he'll be aiming to unwind some of the European Union's moves toward de-risking, which Beijing sees as an unwelcome alignment between Brussels and Washington.

Another thing on the agenda will be China's participation at the upcoming peace summit in Switzerland about the war in Ukraine set for mid-June. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has been trying to court China to participate, as was German Chancellor Olaf Scholz during his visit to Beijing last week.

EU officials say Beijing has been pushing for Russia to have a seat at the table as well, something Kyiv (and perhaps even Moscow) is not willing to accept at the moment. With that in mind, it's unclear if China will participate or boycott the talks.

One Thing To Watch: The dates of the tour have not been publicly announced, but various European officials have pointed toward May 7 as a starting day, a date that has also been reported by Serbian media as when Xi could visit Belgrade.

The date makes sense as it falls on the 25th anniversary of the NATO bombing of China's embassy in Belgrade, which serves as a major event in the countries' relations.

The destroyed embassy has since been transformed into an expansive Chinese cultural center that is set to be the largest in Europe.

When I reported about the center during a trip to Belgrade in 2022, it was already completed and staff could be seen going in and out of the building. However, it's still not officially opened, and it has been speculated that Serbian and Chinese officials were waiting for a visit from Xi to mark the occasion.

Xi also visited the site the last time he went to Serbia in 2016, laying flowers and making a speech at a monument on the compound in honor of the Chinese diplomats who were killed in the 1999 bombing.

Why It Matters: While the visit to Paris is an opportunity to focus on China's wider relationship with Europe, the stops in Hungary and Serbia will allow Beijing to show that its influence in Central and Eastern Europe is still intact.

Over the last few years, the 17+1 (China's diplomatic grouping to engage with the region) has seen members leave, making it the 16+1, while other Central and Eastern European countries have downgraded and deprioritized the bloc.

Showing its stature in an EU member like Hungary also sends an important message. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has courted Chinese investment and closer ties as he's sparred with Brussels. In February, Budapest announced a new security deal with China that could see Chinese police patrols in the country.

Meanwhile, Hungarian and Chinese officials are active in the leadup to the visit, likely looking to announce new initiatives and progress on long delayed projects.

Hungarian Economy Minister Marton Nagy received a Chinese delegation on April 18 where they discussed, among other things, the status of the Chinese-financed $1.9 billion Budapest-Belgrade railway project.

Three More Stories From Eurasia

1. A Russian Oligarch Looks To China

Vladimir Potanin, one of Russia's richest men, announced plans to launch a new mineral venture in China a week after the United States and Britain levied sanctions on Russia's mineral industry, RFE/RL's Russian Service reports.

What It Means: Potanin, who made much of his initial money in the 1990s through Russia's loan-for-shares program, said on April 22 that Norilsk Nickel, the billion-dollar mining and smelting company, will open a joint venture in China, where it will supply copper.

Potanin told Interfax the company has been having issues with processing international payments and sanctions have seen the company lose up to 20 percent of its prewar revenue.

The announcement of the new business in China came shortly after London and Washington banned the supply of Russian copper, nickel, and aluminum from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and the London Metal Exchange, as well as any direct imports of the minerals from Russia.

2. A Diplomatic Fumble In Georgia

For unknown reasons, the Chinese Embassy in Georgia's website used a photo of a Russian landmark in its welcome banner on its homepage, my colleague Luka Pertaia reported for RFE/RL's Georgian Service.

The Details: As part of a banner on its landing page, the Chinese Embassy featured four photos: two from Georgia, one from China, and one of Dormition Cathedral, which is located inside the Kremlin complex in Moscow.

No explanation was given, and the embassy did not respond to Luka when he reached out for comment, but shortly afterward publication of the article all the photos were removed from the website.

The use of the photos is a small but clumsy error on the part of the embassy, especially considering sensitivities with Russia in Georgia after Moscow's 2008 invasion. The Kremlin has also militarily and diplomatically propped up the breakaway authorities in the Georgian territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which Georgians say is an occupation.

3. Chinese Spies In Europe

On the same day that Germany arrested three of its nationals for allegedly working for China's security services, Britain also charged two of its nationals for spying for Beijing.

What You Need To Know: Christopher Cash, a parliamentary researcher, and Christopher Berry were charged with spying on April 22 and both will appear in court later this week in London.

Cash is accused of obtaining, collecting, recording, publishing, or communicating notes, documents or information "calculated to be, might be, or were intended to be, directly or indirectly, useful to an enemy" between January 2022 and February 2023, according to a statement by Britain's Crown Prosecution Service.

Berry is charged with the same offenses of Britain's Official Secrets Act from December 2021 to February 2023.

In a statement, London's Metropolitan Police Service said the foreign state in question for both men was China.

German prosecutors arrested three nationals on April 22 who they said are "strongly suspected of having worked for a Chinese secret service," including one accused of being an agent for China's spy agency, the State Security Ministry.

After the news broke, Reuters also reported on April 23 that German police had arrested an aide to a German lawmaker in the European Parliament from the far-right Alternative fur Deutschland (AfD) on suspicion of spying for China and passing information about opposition legislators to Chinese handlers.

Across The Supercontinent

Not Playing Around: My colleague Meliha Kesmer from RFE/RL's Balkan Service reports that Bosnia-Herzegovina banned the import of 600 Mickey Mouse dolls made in China into the country due to high levels of toxic chemicals found in them. Bosnian officials told Meliha that this was the third Chinese toy delivery banned this year over safety concerns.

Middle Corridor Update: China-Europe rail traffic through Kazakhstan continues to see growth in 2024. The first quarter of the year shows a 13.7 percent rise compared to the same period in 2023.

Fox Hunt And Skynet: Beijing has successfully compelled thousands of alleged fugitives living outside of China to return to the country as part of its transnational repression efforts, the nonprofit research and advocacy group Safeguard Defenders said in a new report.

Putin Incoming: While attention is focused now on Xi's upcoming tour, Russian President Vladimir Putin will reportedly visit China in mid-May, shortly after the Chinese leader ends his trip to Europe.

One Thing To Watch

While the U.S. Congress debates how to handle the app TikTok and its Chinese parent company ByteDance, the EU has said it will ban a new service launched by TikTok in Europe that it believes could be "as addictive as cigarettes" unless the company offers "compelling" fresh evidence that children are safeguarded.

That's all from me for now. Don't forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you might have.

Until next time,

Reid Standish

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Welcome back to the China In Eurasia briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter tracking China's resurgent influence from Eastern Europe to Central Asia.

Looking ahead, we’ll be changing up the newsletter format and will start sending it out every week. Until then, it would be great to hear more about what you like about the newsletter currently and would want more of moving forward. Send me an e-mail to StandishR@rferl.org with your thoughts. Don’t be shy! :)

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Reid Standish and here's what I'm following right now.

Listen to the Talking China In Eurasia podcast.

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Looking At Beijing's Ukraine Shuttle Diplomacy

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently wrapped up a trip to Beijing where he met with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, for talks on a series of "hot topics" amid Moscow's grinding war against Ukraine.

Finding Perspective: China has emerged as a close diplomatic ally for Russia and visits like this are becoming increasingly common.

Among those hot topics explored on April 8, Lavrov and Wang discussed bilateral ties and big issues like the war in Ukraine and tensions in the Asia-Pacific. The pair also said their governments had agreed to start a dialogue on Eurasian security with the aim of "double counteracting" the European-Atlantic alliance led by Washington.

The visit came as Moscow slowly but steadily advances on the battlefield in eastern Ukraine amid cracks in Western support.

In recent months, Beijing has also resumed some of the stagnant shuttle diplomacy between Kyiv, Moscow, and European Union capitals that began as the war entered its second year.

From March 2-11, Li Hui, the special representative on Eurasian affairs that Beijing appointed as its envoy, was doing the rounds in Europe as he sought to "mediate and build consensus" to end the "Ukraine crisis," which is how China officially refers to the grinding war.

Li's diplomatic rounds were similar to his previous tour, which failed to generate any headway. During his initial visit in May 2023, he promoted Beijing's 12-point paper (often referred to as a peace plan) that set out general principles for ending the war but did not get into specifics.

This time around, Li's European stops looked much more geared toward getting a feel for EU resolve toward the war and probing for cracks and space that could allow for an end to the war on more Russian-friendly terms.

There are few indicators that Li's shuttle diplomacy has generated any positive momentum. The 12-point paper received a lukewarm reception in both Russia and Ukraine when it was released in February 2023, and was criticized by Brussels and Washington for accommodating Moscow while not condemning the invasion.

Why It Matters: Li's recent trip looks less designed to find solutions to end the war than to gauge the levels of Ukraine fatigue among Europe's top brass.

Beijing has good reason to send out such a scouting mission. Elections for the European Parliament will come in June and the specter cast by November's U.S. presidential election is hanging over the continent.

The flow of U.S. weapons is currently held up in Congress and a victory for former President Donald Trump could further hamper support for Kyiv -- and there's major questions about whether European support alone could sustain Ukraine on the battlefield.

Both Beijing and Moscow are seeing some blood in the water at the moment and are looking to see if there's more.

The week before his recent visit to China, Lavrov said that China had proposed the most reasonable peace plan so far for resolving the Ukraine conflict -- and Russian President Vladimir Putin will reportedly travel to China to meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping in May.

All this growing coordination comes with a Swiss-hosted international peace conference in the summer about the war in Ukraine, where the issue of territorial concessions and what terms Kyiv and Moscow might be willing to accept will be hotly debated.

Three More Stories From Eurasia

1. European Lawmakers React To Chinese Hacking Campaign

The U.S. Justice Department unsealed an indictment in late March that says Chinese government-backed hackers carried out a multiyear campaign against lawmakers and critics around the world, including every European Union member from a group of deputies with hawkish views on China.

My colleagues and I spoke with some of those affected.

The Details: The indictment says Chinese government-backed hackers in 2021 went after "every European Union member" of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (IPAC), a global group of lawmakers.

Some 66 lawmakers from 12 EU-member parliaments are listed on IPAC's website, along with members from Britain, the United States, Ukraine, Japan, and others. The Chinese hackers also tried to infiltrate 43 British parliamentary accounts linked to lawmakers that were also IPAC members or had expressed critical views on China.

We spoke with several IPAC-affiliated lawmakers targeted in the hacking campaign. Many said they received suspicious e-mails like the ones the U.S. indictment says were used to try to gain access to their accounts -- with some even being notified about it by their respective intelligence and cybersecurity agencies.

All of the lawmakers say the attempts were unsuccessful.

U.S. Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco said on March 25 that more than 10,000 e-mails -- which appeared to come from news outlets, politicians, and critics of China -- were sent as part of the campaign that relied on using phishing e-mails containing hidden tracking links.

Antonio Milososki, a lawmaker and former foreign minister for North Macedonia, told us that cyberattacks had been a mainstay since he joined IPAC in 2021.

Pavel Popescu, a Romanian IPAC member who led his country's parliamentary National Security and Defense Committee in 2022, told us that he saw the hacking attempts as a badge of honor.

"This [U.S.] investigation is not a surprise to me, but only a simple confirmation that everything I've done over the years in parliament has been done well," he said.

Beyond the IPAC members, the sprawling Chinese hacking cybercampaign targeted U.S. officials, senators, journalists, Chinese political dissidents, Western military and tech companies, as well Britain's election watchdog and members of the European Parliament.

2. A China-Kazakhstan Spy Saga

A leading Kazakh sinologist and former senior government adviser, Konstantin Syroyezhkin, who was sentenced to 10 years in prison on high-treason charges in 2019, has been released on parole five years early, RFE/RL's Kazakh Service reported.

What You Need To Know: The 67-year-old scholar was released from a maximum-security prison on April 4, but no further details were provided.

Syroyezhkin was sentenced on October 7, 2019. Details of the charges were not made public, but several local media outlets, as well as The Wall Street Journal, reported that he was accused of selling classified documents to people associated with Chinese intelligence.

Syroyezhkin is a former Soviet KGB agent, and from 2006 until his arrest in 2019, he worked as a leading expert and analyst at the presidential Institute for Strategic Research where he conducted research on China and Kazakh-Chinese relations.

It's unknown if Syroyezhkin has the right to remain in Kazakhstan or not, with reports from the time of his conviction saying that he was stripped of his citizenship.

3. Anti-China Terrorism In Pakistan

Five Chinese workers and their local driver were killed in a suicide bomb blast in northwestern Pakistan on March 26. Since then, Chinese contractors have halted construction on two major dam projects where the workers were assigned.

What It Means: The most recent attack was preceded by another attack on Chinese interests in the country in March near the strategic port of Gwadar.

The declining security situation highlights both the added pressure that the roughly $60 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship project of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), is facing in the country, as well as the dangerous reality facing some Chinese megaprojects.

The Chinese companies working on the dam projects have demanded that Pakistani authorities come up with new security plans before reopening the sites where around 1,250 Chinese nationals are working.

On April 6, the Pakistani government announced that it would take disciplinary action against senior officials responsible for providing security to Chinese workers in the country.

The security of Chinese workers is a major concern to both governments and has become a growing point of friction between Beijing and Islamabad as Chinese nationals have been more frequently targeted by militants.

Across The Supercontinent

Not So Sweet: Beekeepers in Hungary say their "survival is at stake" because of plunging domestic honey prices, with some experts pointing to cheap, "fake" honey flooding the market from China as the culprit, RFE/RL's Hungarian Service reports.

Calling Comrade Xi: A conspiracy-minded fringe organization called Group for Romania is facing internal discord after some prominent members of the group publicly appealed to Putin and Xi for protection from Bucharest's so-called "Judeo-Euro-Atlantic political regime," RFE/RL's Romanian Service reports.

Yellen In Beijing: U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen wrapped up four days of talks in China with a warning to the country's banks and exporters that attempts to bolster Russia's military capacity for its war in Ukraine will be met with sanctions.

Brussels Gets Tough: The European Commission announced that it is launching an investigation into Chinese suppliers of wind turbines.

This comes as Brussels continues with another probe into Chinese electric vehicles, as well as solar panels, where the EU says they're facing unfair market advantages through subsidies.

One Thing To Watch

The United States, Britain, and Australia are set to begin talks on bringing new members into their AUKUS security pact as Washington pushes for Japan to be involved as a deterrent against China, the Financial Times reported.

AUKUS, formed by the three countries in 2021, is part of their efforts to push back against China's growing power in the Indo-Pacific region. China has called the AUKUS pact dangerous and warned it could spur a regional arms race.

That’s all from me for now. Don’t forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you might have.

Until next time,

Reid Standish