The Farda Briefing

Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter.

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Kian Sharifi. In this edition, I’m looking into reports that Iran is taking deliveries of a precursor for solid missile propellant from China to replenish its missile stockpile.

What You Need To Know

• Chinese Missile Fuel Ingredient: Western intelligence reports say Iran has been importing large quantities of sodium perchlorate from China in 2025, including an initial 1,000-ton shipment early in the year and a larger wave totaling around 2,000 tons since late September. The substance is used as a precursor for solid missile propellant oxidizers like ammonium perchlorate.

• Activist’s Death Sentence Commuted: Imprisoned labor activist Sharifeh Mohammadi’s death sentenced has been commuted to 30 years in prison, her lawyer Amir Raeesian announced this week. He added that he will seek a retrial and will continue efforts to overturn her conviction and secure an acquittal on the charge of “baghi,” or armed rebellion. Mohammadi was initially sentenced to death in July 2024 but the ruling was overturned months later due to “flaws and ambiguities.” She was again sentenced to death in February -- a verdict that was upheld in in August.

• Iran’s Young Women Athletes Light Up Bahrain: Iranian female athletes delivered a milestone-filled week, rewriting record books with historic team crowns and standout individual medals across the Asian Youth Games in Bahrain. The under-18 girls’ volleyball team seized a first-ever Asian title in a five-set epic over Indonesia, capping a landmark run. Iran's girls’ handballers made history with the country’s first gold in the sport at Asian level after five straight wins, including a dominant 43–26 victory over India. The Iranian girls’ futsal team edged China on penalties to lift the youth games trophy in Manama. Individually, judoka Mahsa Shakibaei struck gold in the 48-kilo category, hailed as a breakthrough for women’s judo, while weightlifter Nasim Qasemi added two silvers to underscore Iran's depth in strength sports. Separately, the women’s rugby team took a historic Asian silver, finishing runners-up at the Asia Rugby Emirates Sevens Trophy in Muscat -- the first Asian medal in the team’s history.

The Big Issue

Building Back Up

CNN, citing European intelligence, reported this week that at least 10 shipments of sodium perchlorate totaling roughly 2,000 tons began arriving in Iran on September 29, after UN sanctions were reimposed via the European-triggered “snapback” mechanism, with several ships and companies already under US sanctions linked to these transfers.

Earlier this year, the Financial Times and Reuters reported on two Iranian-flagged ships, Golbon and Jairan, which are believed to have carried more than 1,000 tons of sodium perchlorate from near Shanghai to Bandar Abbas.

You might recall the deadly explosion at the Shahid Rajaei port back in April. Though Iran denies it, independent experts at the time said the blast appeared to be due to the improper storage of sodium perchlorate.

Why It Matters: The UN sanctions “snapback,” initiated by Britain, France, and Germany -- the so-called E3 -- reinstated restrictions on Iranian arms and missile activities; however, experts note sodium perchlorate itself may not be explicitly listed, creating a legal gray area that Beijing can use while stating it enforces controls on dual-use items.

Sodium perchlorate is a common precursor used to produce ammonium perchlorate -- which is, in fact, banned under sanctions.

Ammonium perchlorate is the primary oxidizer in many solid-fuel rocket motors for medium-range missiles, making bulk imports of its precursor a strong indicator of scaling solid-propellant production capacity.

The shipment volumes, particularly since late September, imply significant potential output, consistent with efforts to rebuild and possibly expand missile inventories after their depletion during the war with Israel in June.

With its senior echelon of military leadership eliminated and its defenses decimated after the war, Iran has been looking to China for help.

It is unclear how Iran is paying for this, but Reuters reported this week that Tehran has increased its light crude discount to $8 a barrel -- the widest in over a year.

What's Being Said: As expected, there has been no comment from Tehran or Beijing on the reports -- but plenty of analyses from commentators.

Gregory Brew, a senior Iran researcher and energy analyst at Eurasia Group, said there was nothing unexpected about Tehran wanting to replenish its missile stockpile or Beijing helping it in this effort..

The “test will be whether active efforts by Iran to rebuild missile stocks prompts renewed Israeli military action,” he wrote on X. “Whether Israel can live with an Iran that is rearming, but not rebuilding [its] nuclear program, or whether Israel sees utility in ‘mowing the grass’ and is undeterred.”

Michael Horowitz, an independent analyst based in Israel, speculated that the sodium perchlorate shipments constituted “only a small part” of Chinese aid to Iran. “My guess is this might just be the…tip of the iceberg.”

Expert Opinion: While China and Russia were long seen as offering Iran mostly diplomatic backing, recent developments -- most notably China’s reported shipments of sodium perchlorate -- suggest Beijing and Moscow are increasing their support, according to Damon Golriz of The Hague University of Applied Sciences.

He told Hannah Kaviani of RFE/RL’s Radio Farda that the US‑led world order "has become fragile," creating space for China and Russia to "fill the power vacuum," with assistance to Iran and North Korea fitting that strategy.

Golriz also argued that Iran is replenishing its missile arsenal at a "faster rate" than Israel is restocking its air defenses.

He added that Tehran will ultimately seek nuclear weapons as a perceived guarantee of regime survival, though he expects any decisive move only after the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

That's all from me for now.

Until next time,

Kian Sharifi

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Friday.

Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter.

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Kian Sharifi. In this edition, I’m looking into how the end of nearly two decades of leftist rule in Bolivia could put a damper on Iran’s strategy of expanding its influence in Latin America.

What You Need To Know

• Shaky Latin American Foothold After Right Pivot: Bolivia’s election of Rodrigo Paz, a center-right senator, ends roughly two decades of dominance by the Movement for Socialism party (MAS) and signals a foreign-policy realignment toward the United States and a prospective reset with Israel after ties were severed in 2023 amid the Gaza war fallout. For Iran, which expanded security and political links with La Paz in recent years, the pivot threatens a significant loss of diplomatic cover and operational permissiveness in the Andes.

• Top Iranian Officials Accused Of Shah-Era Assassination: US-based scholar Mehrzad Boroujerdi has accused top Iranian figures Ali Shamkhani and Mohsen Rezaei of assassinating his father, Malek Boroujerdi, just weeks before the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Speaking to RFE/RL’s Radio Farda, he said his father had been targeted for his opposition to the crippling oil workers’ strike, which contributed to the fall of the monarchy.

• Khamenei Rejects Talks With US Again: Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei this week again rejected negotiations with the United States, toughening his stance on Iran’s nuclear and missile program. In his first speech in nearly two months, Khamenei accused US President Donald Trump of looking to impose a deal on Iran. He also denied Trump’s assertion that Iranian nuclear sites were destroyed in US strikes in June.

The Big Issue

Recalibrating Relations

Paz campaigned on stabilizing an economy battered by shortages and currency strain, but the external shift is immediate: The United States and Israel were quick to welcome the result, framing it as a chance to rebuild relations and cooperation.

Iran, too, issued a statement congratulating Paz on his victory, but that seemed to be more out of courtesy than anything else.

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar spoke with Paz shortly after his election was confirmed on October 20 and expressed his country’s desire to “turn a new page” in ties with Bolivia. He also said Israel will be represented in Paz’s inauguration on November 8 after receiving a formal invitation from the incoming president.

There is no record of any Iranian officials speaking with Paz yet.

Why It Matters: Bolivia has been cited by regional and Israeli analysts as a “rising state” in Iran’s Latin America footprint, especially after a 2023 security agreement referencing drones, cybersecurity, and training -- all of which are likely to face review under a US-leaning government.

A reset with Israel would further narrow Tehran’s space, stripping away a symbolic Andean bridgehead and tightening oversight on security cooperation that Washington views skeptically, with downstream effects on sanctions exposure and transit routes.

The shift also intersects with strategic minerals: Paz’s pro-market stance and expected compliance tilt may recalibrate lithium policy, complicating any indirect Iranian access to sensitive supply chains via Bolivian channels while La Paz rebalances between China and Western partners.

With Bolivia stepping back, Iran’s Latin strategy will lean more on its core partners -- Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba -- where long-standing political affinity and security cooperation are entrenched, limiting Tehran’s broader regional bandwidth.

In short, Bolivia’s pivot will likely compress Iran’s Latin American map, with fewer friendly capitals, more scrutiny on security and finance, and a harder path to leverage Andean geography for influence and logistics in what some consider to be “America’s backyard.”

What's Being Said: There has been little commentary in Iran about the implications of Paz’s victory on Tehran’s Latin America strategy. The reticence could be partially chalked up to analysts waiting to see whether Iran can build any sort of rapport with the new government in La Paz.

Expert Opinion: Outside of Iran, however, the analysis is pretty uniform.

Danny Citrinowicz, senior fellow at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies, describes Paz’s election as “another severe blow” to Iran’s ambitions in Latin America.

“Unfortunately for them, this is probably not the end,” he adds.

Nicolas Saldias, senior analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, has similar views.

“Paz will foster better relations with the United States, which has had extremely poor bilateral relations under MAS,” he says. “Paz will likely distance Bolivia from close ties with Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua, Russia and Iran, but maintain pragmatic ties with China.”

That's all from me for now.

Until next time,

Kian Sharifi

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Friday.