Qishloq Ovozi (Archive)

Central Asian governments have been walking a diplomatic tightrope in trying to stay neutral since Russia started its military campaign in Ukraine on February 24.

Russia is a major trading partner for all the Central Asian states and generally the guarantor of security for the region, where there are still concerns about militant groups in northern Afghanistan, not to mention the Taliban.

But there are many in Central Asia who see their fate as being tied with Ukraine’s and that a Russian conquest in Ukraine could embolden the Kremlin to try to reclaim Central Asia, an area that was once part of the Soviet Union and the Tsarist Russian Empire before that.

Donors in Kazakhstan assembled a load of humanitarian aid for Ukraine and there have been pro-Ukrainian demonstrations outside the Russian embassies in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. Even in Uzbekistan, some people laid flowers outside the Ukrainian Embassy.

Russia’s attacks on Ukraine are having a strong effect on Central Asia and while officially the governments are trying to avoid becoming involved in that conflict, there seems to be no way they can do so for long.

On this week's Majlis podcast, RFE/RL media-relations manager Muhammad Tahir moderates a discussion on the cautious public comments of Central Asian officials and the actions of Central Asian citizens related to Russia’s attacks in Ukraine.

This week’s guests are: from Massachusetts but originally from Kazakhstan, Nargis Kassenova, a Central Asian researcher and senior fellow at Harvard’s Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies; from Washington, William Courtney, a former U.S. ambassador to Kazakhstan and Georgia who is currently an adjunct senior fellow at the RAND Corporation and executive director of the RAND Business Leaders Forum; from Moscow, Temur Umarov, a fellow at the Carnegie Moscow Center; and Central Asia analyst Bruce Pannier.

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The Central Asian Dilemma Over Russia’s Attack On Ukraine

by RFE/RL

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When Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke to the Russian nation on February 21 and described Ukraine as “historically Russian land,” and also announced that Moscow would be recognizing the Russia-backed separatist regions in Luhansk and Donetsk in eastern Ukraine as independent countries, it sent a chill down the spines of many in Central Asia.

Central Asia was not only part of the Soviet Union but for decades before that was part of the Russia Empire also.

And Russian officials, including Putin, have said publicly that there never was such a thing as a Kazakh state, for example.

There is still a large Russian population in northern Kazakhstan in areas along the Russian border. During the 1990s, a small but vocal group of them called for the Russian annexation of areas in northern Kazakhstan, similar to the situation in Donetsk and Luhansk.

As for separatism in Central Asia, there is Karakalpakstan in western Uzbekistan, where some have been calling for independence for 30 years; and Tajikistan’s far eastern Gorno-Badakhshan region, where many would at least like greater autonomy from the Tajik government.

And due to maps drawn in Soviet times, there are large diasporas in every Central Asian state.

On this week's Majlis podcast, RFE/RL media-relations manager Muhammad Tahir moderates a discussion on the ramifications for Central Asia of Putin’s comments and also what the ripple effects will be for new sanctions being imposed on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.

This week’s guests are: from Washington, Erica Marat, an associate professor at the National Defense University in Washington and author of many works on Central Asia; Paul Stronski, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment’s Russia and Eurasia program; from Prague, Alisher Sydyk, director of RFE/RL’s Uzbek Service, known locally as Ozodlik; and Central Asia analyst Bruce Pannier.

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Putin, Ukraine, And Why There's Uneasiness In Central Asia

by RFE/RL

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