He has been referred to by Western media and pundits as "Russia's man in the south" of Syria, and some see him as a potential threat to the country's new ruler, Ahmed al-Sharaa.
His name is Ahmad al-Awda and he has been in the news since the fall of former Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad's government last month.
Awda commanded rebel forces opposed to Assad in the southern Syrian governorate of Daraa from the early years of the civil war, which began in 2011, before shifting alliances to cooperate with Assad's ally, Russia. But that all changed last November.
As the U.S.-designated terrorist organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its allies launched their lightning offensive against Assad's government from the north on November 27, 2024, Awda and his fighters moved toward Damascus from the south.
"He's an opportunist or an intelligent and pragmatic player, depending on your perspective," said Robin Yassin-Kassab, the co-author of Burning Country: Syrians In Revolution And War.
Rebel In The South
There are no clear details about Awda's early years. Reports citing people close to him say that, some time before the start of Syria's civil war, he left the country for the United Arab Emirates (U.A.E.) after completing his mandatory military service in Syria's army.
Awda, who reportedly had no military experience besides his time as a conscript, returned to Daraa in 2012.
In 2014, he joined the Free Syrian Army, a large coalition of rebel forces opposed to Assad. He was handed the command of the Shabaab Al-Sunna (Sunni Youth) battalion, which then took control of his hometown of Bosra in the Daraa governorate.
According to people close to him, despite cooperating with them, he never grew close to Islamist rebel groups such as Jabhat al-Nusra, or the Nusra Front, which was founded by Sharaa, who at the time went by his nom de guerre, Abu Muhammad al-Jolani. Awda has never publicly expressed a desire for rule by Shari'a law.
Following a major offensive by Syrian government forces in 2018 to retake the south from rebel forces, Awda reached a so-called settlement agreement with Russia.
Under the deal, the rebels "reconciled" with the Assad government, gave up their heavy weaponry, and remained in the south.
"In effect, [Awda] achieved a low level of autonomy," said Yassin-Kassab. "He became a local warlord."
Awda then became the commander of the Eighth Brigade, a unit that, in 2020, was integrated into the Syrian Army's Fifth Corps, which was sponsored by Russia.
Awda, however, switched allegiances once again, following the launch of the HTS-led offensive against Assad in November 2024. Reportedly working with HTS, he cut ties with Russia and marched toward Damascus.
On December 8, 2024, Awda and his forces were spotted in the Syrian capital before Sharaa's arrival, but they left within hours. While he has not publicly expressed a desire to challenge Sharaa, there have been reports indicating that he wants to maintain his autonomy in the south.
Leadership Threat?
Powerful Arab states such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the U.A.E. are worried about the regional ramifications of Islamists seizing power in Syria.
Those fears come as the United States is in the process of lifting certain restrictions to facilitate Syria's transition into the post-Assad era. The European Union is also mulling lifting oil, gas, banking, and transportation sanctions, according to an informal EU document seen by RFE/RL.
Colin Clarke, director of policy and research at the New York-based Soufan Group intelligence consultancy, said that if Syria's new rulers manage to effectively run the country, it would serve as a "real momentum boost" for Islamist groups.
"To the leadership in U.A.E. and Saudi Arabia, there is a concern that the takeover of Syria by HTS will energize Islamists in those countries, and if [Sharaa] succeeds in governing, it will be proof of concept for groups like the Muslim Brotherhood," he added.
Both the U.A.E. and Saudi Arabia view Islamist movements as existential threats to their monarchies and political systems.
This is where someone like Awda -- who has name recognition and ties with the U.A.E. -- could fit in. Some region-watchers have suggested he could become Syria's Khalifa Haftar -- a strongman backed by the U.A.E. and Egypt, who has challenged the rule of the UN-backed Government of National Accord in Libya.
"I'm sure the U.A.E. and [Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah] Sisi would aid an insurgency if one gets going in Syria," Yassin-Kassab said, adding that it depends on how effectively and quickly the new Syrian administration can establish order and authority.
"But if things in general degenerate, then [Awda] could be one warlord who might take foreign funds," he said.
