When Vladimir Putin took the reins of power in a post-Soviet Russia in shambles a quarter-century ago, he immediately set about restoring Moscow's status as a global power.
It took 15 years, but Russia heralded its military intervention in the Syrian civil war as proof of its return as a force to be reckoned with on the international stage.
Moscow leveraged that image to expand its influence throughout the Middle East and beyond as a counterweight to the West.
Now, the fall of the government of President Bashar al-Assad, a key ally of Moscow, has dealt a serious blow to Russia's great-power ambitions.
"Putin's military adventure in Syria was designed to demonstrate that Russia is a great power and can project its influence abroad," said Phillip Smyth, a Middle East expert. "Losing Syria is a huge slap in the face for Putin."
Assad's ouster represents not only a reputational hit to Russia but likely a major strategic setback.
Syria is home to two major Russian military installations: an air base in Hmeimim and a naval base in Tartus. The latter is Russia's only warm-water naval base outside the former Soviet Union and provides Moscow access to the Mediterranean Sea.
"Russia has used its bases in Syria to project its power both into the eastern Mediterranean and into the broader Middle East," said Smyth.
High-Maintenance Asset
Russia's military intervention in Syria in 2015 changed the tide of the war. Moscow's devastating aerial campaigns against rebel positions helped the Syrian Army regain swaths of territory and keep Assad in power.
Moscow's Syria campaign came a year after its invasion of Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula as well as its support for separatist forces in Ukraine's east.
Moscow capitalized on its involvement in both Syria and Ukraine to sell itself as a power capable of challenging the United States, NATO, and the West in general while expanding its global reach from the Mediterranean to Africa and Latin America.
Following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Syria became more of an asset for Moscow, analysts say, while also presenting the challenge of maintaining military campaigns on two fronts.
With the anticipated fall of Russian military assets in Syria following the collapse of Assad's government, the task has become even more daunting.
Russia is already heavily invested in a major counteroffensive to regain captured territory in its southwestern Kursk region that it lost to Ukraine, to the point that it is relying on help from North Korean troops. At the same time, it is trying to take as much territory as it can in Ukraine's east before possible peace talks.
Russian military facilities along the Mediterranean coast in western Syria could be overrun by militants led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a U.S.-designated terrorist organization, and its allies.
Aaron Zelin, senior fellow at the Washington Institute, says Russia simply does not have the same firepower at its disposal to protect its assets in Syria.
"It is important to remember that Russia has to deal with its larger war in Ukraine now compared to when they first went in Syria in 2015," Zelin said.
"Russia also has its assets fighting in sub-Saharan Africa, too. And unlike a decade ago, when Russia had the Wagner Group led by [the deceased Yevgeny] Prigozhin...Russia doesn't have the same level of capacity or capability to deal with this now in the same way."
Zelin said losing the Tartus naval base, in particular, would be an "extremely huge loss for Russia."
"It's Russia's only warm-water port that it can use for its naval activities and power projection," he said. "Losing it would essentially cut Russia out of the core of the Middle East."
Moscow did not send ground troops to help Damascus, which fell to the HTS and its allies on December 8. Russia has conducted dozens of air strikes since the militants launched their offensive against Assad's forces in late November, but Moscow's limited intervention did little to stop the rebel advance.
Russia will pay a huge price for its failure in Syria, analysts say.
The fall of Assad is a "major blow to Russia's claim of still being a global power in terms of sustaining military and political influence abroad," said Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
From there, actors in other regions such as Latin America and Africa might "start rethinking their ties and their reliance on Russia as well," he said.
