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Britain Accuses China Of Working To Provide Russia With 'Lethal Aid'
Britain has accused China of preparing to or already providing ‘lethal aid’ to Russia for its ongoing full-scale invasion of neighboring Ukraine.
Citing U.S. and British defense intelligence, Defense Secretary Grant Shapps said there was evidence that “lethal aid is now, or will be, flowing from China to Russia and into Ukraine.”
“Today I can reveal that we have evidence that Russia and China are collaborating on combat equipment for use in Ukraine,” Shapps told a defense conference in London on May 22.
The British defense minister did not provide details or evidence to back up his claim, but his assertion, the first such accusation from a Western official, would indicate a new level of support for Moscow from Beijing and that China had pivoted to directly supporting Russia’s military.
“We should be concerned about that because in the earlier days of this war, China would like to present itself as a moderating influence on” Russian President Vladimir Putin, Schnapps said, adding that trade data since the Kremlin’s February 2022 full-scale invasion of invasion shows that Beijing and Moscow “are covering each other's backs.”
China has emerged as the Kremlin's leading international supporter as a vital consumer for oil and gas that has helped boost the Russian economy and by supplying Russia with key militarily useful, but nonlethal, dual-use components for the production and repair of weapons.
In April, senior U.S. officials said that Beijing was providing Moscow with drone and missile technology, satellite imagery, and machine tools.
Analyses of Chinese customs data show that in 2023 some 90 percent of “high priority” dual-use goods used in Russian weapons production was imported from China.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said during a late April visit to China that there was no evidence that Beijing was sending weapons to Russia to use in Ukraine.
“What China is doing, or what some of its enterprises are doing, is to provide critical components for Russia’s defense industrial base, things like machine tools, microelectronics, and optics,” Blinken said during his trip to the Chinese capital.
However, Shapps' accusation would mean that China is no longer shying away from directly helping Russia’s war effort in Ukraine, where fighting is in its third year.
Putin visited China in May for a state visit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping where the pair touted their burgeoning ties as a “new era” and as “one of the main stabilizing factors in the international arena,” while criticizing the United States for “hegemonic” behavior.
With reporting by AP and Reuters
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Brother Of Imprisoned RFE/RL Journalist Ihar Losik Also Jailed In Belarus
The younger brother of imprisoned Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty journalist Ihar Losik was detained in April and remains in jail in his native Belarus on extremism charges related to Russia's war against Ukraine, according to a rights group and RFE/RL sources.
Mikita Losik, 25, was detained in mid-April, the Country For Life foundation said in a Telegram post. Sources who spoke to RFE/RL on condition of anonymity for security reasons in the tightly controlled country said he was detained in the northeastern city of Orsha.
Mikita Losik is accused of "assisting extremist activity" for allegedly sending photographs of the movement of Russian military equipment in 2022 to Belaruski Hayun, a defunct independent Telegram channel that monitored military activity, sources said. He is jailed in Vitsebsk, also in the northeast.
The head of Belaruski Hayun announced its closure in February, saying Belarusian authorities had hacked into a database and gained access to information about contributors.
Several people have since been detained on extremism charges in connection with photos and video of Russian military force that were sent to the channel in the spring of 2022, around the time Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February. Belarus is Russia's military ally, and authoritarian leader Aleksandr Lukashenko allowed Moscow to use its territory as a staging area for the invasion.
Ihar Losik, 32, was arrested in June 2020 and sentenced in December 2021 for "organizing mass riots, taking part in mass disorder, inciting social hatred," and several other charges that remain unclear. Losik, RFE/RL, and Western governments say the charges are politically motivated.
Ihar Losik has not been heard from in about two years aside from a being paraded before a camera on a Belarusian state TV propaganda program that accused jailed RFE/RL journalists of "trying to set Belarus on fire."
In 2020, tens of thousands of people took to the streets to protest the result of a presidential election, which was widely considered by international observers to be rigged. The security forces responded with a brutal crackdown, arresting over 30,000 people, many of whom reported torture and ill-treatment while in custody.
The crackdown has pushed most opposition politicians to leave Belarus fearing for their safety and freedom. Many Western governments have refused to recognize the results of the 2020 election and do not consider Lukashenka to be the country's legitimate leader.
Darya Losik, Ihar's wife, was sentenced to two years in prison in January 2023 on a charge of facilitating extremist activity. She was released in an amnesty last July.
Budapest Expels Ukrainian Diplomats After Kyiv Says It Uncovered Hungarian Spy Network
KYIV -- Ukraine's main security agency said it uncovered a Hungarian-run spy network that was seeking sensitive information about military defenses and public opinion in the western Zakarpattya region, which borders Hungary and has a substantial ethnic-Hungarian population.
Hungary responded by expelling two Ukrainian diplomats it said were considered spies, increasing tensions between the neighboring countries whose governments are at odds over Russia's war against Ukraine.
The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said on May 9 that it had arrested two suspected agents in Zakarpattya -- often known in English as Transcarpathia -- and claimed it had identified their handler as an employee of Hungarian military intelligence. This is the first time Ukraine has found a Hungarian spy network working to undermine the country's security, the SBU said.
The SBU posted video footage showing camouflage-clad officers muscling a man out of a building and into a vehicle, his hands cuffed behind his back.
The announcement comes amid tension between Ukraine and Hungary, where Prime Minister Viktor Orban has maintained warm relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin and opposed sanctions against the Kremlin despite Moscow's war on Ukraine. Hungary has been far less supportive of Kyiv's defense efforts than most other European Union and NATO nations, and Orban opposes EU membership for Ukraine.
The development also plays into a complex situation in Zakarpattya, where Kremlin critics say Russia has sought to spark tension between ethnic Hungarians and the Ukrainian authorities.
Hours after the SBU announcement, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said Hungary has expelled two diplomats from the Ukrainian Embassy in Budapest who were considered to be undercover spies. In a video posted on Facebook, he said a notification about the expulsions was handed to the Ukrainian ambassador at the Foreign Ministry.
Asked earlier in the day about the Ukrainian statement, Szijjarto told ATV television that Hungary had received no official notice about the case from Ukraine and that for now, "this should be classified as propaganda that should be treated with caution."
"[In] addition to the physical war [in Ukraine], there is also a propaganda war taking place," Szijjarto said. "It is clear that anti-Hungarian propaganda is often used in Ukraine, anti-Hungarian propaganda that in many cases has turned out to have no basis whatsoever."
The Hungarian prime minister's office and Defense Ministry did not immediately respond to RFE/RL's requests for comment.
The alleged network's goals were "the collection of information about the military defenses of the Zakarpattya Oblast, a search for vulnerable spots in the ground and air defenses of the region, and also the study of the sociopolitical views of local residents," including how they might react "if Hungarian forces enter the region," the SBU said in a statement.
The SBU said one of the suspects was a 40-year-old former soldier from Zakarpattya's Berehove district -- the population hub for Ukraine's ethnic Hungarian minority of roughly 100,000 people -- whom it said was recruited and placed in a "sleeper" mode in 2021, then "activated" by the alleged handler in September 2024.
The SBU claimed it has documentary evidence that the suspect was gathering information about the location of Ukrainian air-defense systems and other military capabilities.
The other detained suspect, a woman, is a former member of Ukraine's Security and Defense Forces who resigned from her unit earlier this year, it said.
The suspects have not been named.
Viktor Yahun, a former SBU deputy head who left the agency in 2015, said the accusations were a grave matter in wartime.
"The presence of agents had been recorded before, they were simply left alone because there was no directive to expose them," Yahun told RFE/RL. "But now the situation has critically changed. We're dealing with military intelligence. This is a serious matter, and the information this structure gathers can be of strategic importance to us. It can be used to make certain strategic decisions."
Vitaliy Dyachuk, an analyst at the Institute for Central European Strategy in Uzhhorod, Zakarpattya's capital, suggested the situation should be handled with care and that heightened tension could play into Russia's hands.
"The tense relationship between Ukraine and Hungary is an ideal [touchstone]for the activation of forces seeking to further destabilize the situation. This is especially true when it comes to sensitive topics like alleged preconditions for another military incursion, the presence of armed forces, and ethnic communities in a region like Zakarpattya," Dyachuk told RFE/RL.
"Before taking any concrete steps, I believe it is worth waiting for a full analysis of the situation. There have already been incidents in Zakarpattya involving arson attacks on Hungarian institutions and other provocations. However, in the end, the trail led to the aggressor state -- Russia. Russia is, in fact, the only major beneficiary of instability in Europe."
After centuries under the control of Hungary and the Austro-Hungarian Empire, Zakarpattya became part of Czechoslovakia after World War I before Hungary, allied with Nazi Germany, attempted to reclaim it in 1939. Following Germany's defeat in World War II, Czechoslovakia ceded the territory to the Soviet Union, which made it part of the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic.
Between 2011 and 2020, the Hungarian government provided at least 115 million euros to Zakarpattya, a 2021 investigation by RFE/RL's Ukrainian investigative unit, Schemes, and a group of Central European journalists established. That amount was roughly 1 1/2 times the size of Zakarpattya's annual budget.
(RFE/RL Ukrainian Service correspondent Iryna Breza reported from Uzhhorod, Ukraine)
- By RFE/RL
Cardinal Robert Prevost Elected Pope Leo XIV, First American To Lead Catholic Church
Robert Prevost, a long-time missionary in Latin America who was born in the United States, has been elected pope in a surprise move by the Roman Catholic conclave of cardinals.
Prevost, a 69-year-old native of Chicago who became the 267th pontiff and first American to lead the Church, took the name Pope Leo XIV.
"Peace be with you all," he told thousands of pilgrims and onlookers in St. Peter's Square on May 8 in his first public words as leader of a church with some 1.4 billion members worldwide.
He appeared on the central balcony of St. Peter's Basilica more than an hour after white smoke poured from the chimney of the Sistine Chapel to indicate that the cardinals had made their choice.
St. Peter's Square erupted in cheers and applause, marking a pivotal moment for the 2,000-year-old institution.
The new pope's influence will extend far beyond religious boundaries as he steps into a role with diplomatic and social weight.
The election took place amid significant geopolitical instability and growing internal divisions within the church -- both seen as key factors in the conclave's outcome.
He spoke to the crowd in Italian and Spanish, but not English, honoring his predecessor, Pope Francis, and Peru, where he served for 20 years as a missionary.
“Greetings...to all of you, and in particular, to my beloved diocese of Chiclayo in Peru, where a faithful people have accompanied their bishop, shared their faith,” he said in Spanish.
Americans in the crowd were stunned and ecstatic. In Washington, US President Donald Trump said it was “such an honor for our country” for the new pope to be American.
“What greater honor can there be?” he said. The president added that “we’re a little bit surprised and we’re happy.”
Vice President JD Vance, who is Catholic, congratulated Pope Leo, saying on X he's sure millions of American Catholics and other Christians "will pray for his successful work leading the Church. May God bless him!"
Pope Leo, a member of the Order of St. Augustine, has a reputation for cross-cultural appeal and is widely regarded as a church leader who transcends national boundaries. He became a bishop while serving in Peru and was granted Peruvian citizenship.
Pope Francis was widely seen as a compassionate reformer who prioritized migrants and the environment. He was the first pope from the Americas, the first Jesuit, and the first non-European pope in more than a millennium.
Francis died on Easter Monday, April 21, at the age of 88, after battling double pneumonia.
With reporting by Reuters and AFP
- By RFE/RL
In Emergency Ruling, US Appeals Court Reverses Halt To Funding For Radio Free Europe
A US appeals court issued a ruling that advances efforts by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) to secure congressionally mandated funds it sorely needs to keep operations going in the coming weeks, pausing a decision delivered just hours earlier by a three-judge panel of the same court.
The new ruling, issued late on May 7 by the full 11-judge bench of the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, imposed an “administrative stay” on the panel’s decision to put on hold a lower court’s ruling in the case, which pits RFE/RL against its overseer, the US Agency for Global Media (USAGM).
RFE/RL has sued USAGM to release frozen budget funds for the second half of the current fiscal year, from April through September.
On April 29, US District Judge Royce Lamberth granted RFE/RL a temporary restraining order, ruling that Congress "ordained that the monies at issue should be allocated to RFE/RL" and that President Donald Trump signed the budget resolution appropriating those funds. His decision ordered payment to be made to RFE/RL for April, about $12 million.
On May 7, however, the three-judge appeals court panel issued a 2-1 ruling staying Lamberth’s order pending appeal, decreasing RFE/RL’s chances of receiving the April funding anytime soon and putting its already substantially scaled-back operations deeper into jeopardy.
Hours later, though, the full 11-member court responded to an emergency petition from RFE/RL and imposed a pause on the panel’s ruling “pending further order of the court.”
In its decision, which also covered other suits involving USAGM, the court emphasized that the stay was meant to give it “sufficient opportunity to consider the emergency petitions and should not be construed in any way as a ruling on the merits of those petitions.”
The ruling, by a 7-4 vote with the court’s four Republican-appointed judges dissenting, means that USAGM must comply with Judge Lamberth’s April 29 order to pay RFE/RL.
While the latest administrative stay is not the court’s final ruling, USAGM can appeal it to the US Supreme Court, which could consider the case or decline to do so.
RFE/RL is a private, independent international news organization whose programs on multiple platforms reach a weekly audience of nearly 50 million people in 23 countries, including Russia, Ukraine, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the nations of Central Asia and the Caucasus.
It has been locked in a legal fight with the USAGM since March 14, when Trump signed an executive order calling for the reduction of USAGM and the broadcasters it oversees – including the Voice of America (VOA), which unlike RFE/RL is a federal entity -- to "the maximum extent consistent with applicable law."
Deprived of funding for April and beyond, RFE/RL has continued to broadcast and publish, but has taken drastic cost-cutting measures to stretch its dwindling savings, including placing hundreds of staffers on furlough and canceling many freelance contracts.
- By Daud Khattak
Pakistan, India Fighting Persists In Wake Of Kashmir Killings
Pakistan and India traded accusations of attacks on May 8, as tensions persisted amid the worst flare-up of fighting between the nuclear-armed neighbors in more than 20 years.
Lieutenant General Ahmad Sharif, a Pakistani military spokesman, said that a civilian was killed in Sindh Province and four soldiers were wounded in Lahore as a result of Indian drone strikes.
The media wing of the military said that Pakistan shot down 25 drones using a mix of technical and weapons-based countermeasures.
India’s Defense Ministry said it targeted air defense systems in several locations after Pakistan launched a drone-and-missile attack overnight, but did not say whether India's forces used drones.
"Pakistan attempted to engage a number of military targets...using drones and missiles," the ministry said in a statement. It said the weapons were "neutralized" by India's air defense systems.
The fighting this week follows an attack in Indian-administered Kashmir last month that killed 26 Hindu tourists and that India blamed on Pakistan, which denied it had anything to do with the killings.
India said it carried out “precision strikes” early on May 7 against nine Pakistani sites that were "terrorist infrastructure" from which attacks against it were orchestrated.
Pakistani officials have said that those strikes killed 31 civilians, some of them children.
On May 7, Pakistani Prime Minister Shebaz Sharif vowed retaliation and an emergency meeting of the National Security Committee concluded with a decision authorizing the country's military to respond.
It said that India had "ignited an inferno in the region.”
There were also deaths and injuries on both sides of the border in heavy exchanges of fire that followed the initial Indian strikes.
India’s Foreign Ministry said on May 8 that 13 civilians were killed and 59 wounded during exchanges of fire across the border on May 7, and the army said an Indian soldier was also killed by shelling. Pakistani officials said six people have been killed near the border in exchanges of fire over the past day.
Since the partition of British India in 1947, India and Pakistan have fought three full-scale wars -- in 1948, 1965, and 1971 -- and a limited conflict in 1999 known as the Kargil War.
There have also been several flare-ups in the century that have sparked fears of a full-scale war, including fighting that ensued after a suicide bomber killed 40 Indian security personnel in Indian-administered Kashmir in February 2019.
The partition, along religious lines, triggered one of history’s largest mass migrations, resulting in the deaths of hundreds of thousands in sectarian violence between Hindus, Muslims, and Sikhs.
This latest escalation in the conflict has sounded alarm bells in Washington, where US President Donald Trump said he has been informed of the situation and hopes the fighting "ends very quickly."
On May 8, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called Sharif and stressed the need for India and Pakistan to work closely to deescalate their conflict, the Pakistani prime minister's office said in a statement.
Both the EU and UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres have also expressed concern about the situation surrounding Kashmir and called for maximum restraint.
With reporting by AP and Reuters
Trump Calls For 30-Day Cease-Fire After Ukraine Accuses Russia Of Breaking Its Own Truce
US President Donald Trump called for a 30-day unconditional cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine and threatened more sanctions imposed by the United States and its partners if the cease-fire is not respected.
"Talks with Russia/Ukraine continue. The U.S. calls for, ideally, a 30-day unconditional ceasefire," Trump said on May 8 on Truth Social shortly after speaking to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy by phone.
Trump said "both countries will be held accountable for respecting the sanctity" of the talks to halt the conflict. The US president said he wanted any cease-fire to then build to a "lasting peace."
"It can all be done very quickly, and I will be available on a moment's notice if my services are needed," Trump said.
Trump made the statement after Ukraine's top diplomat dismissed a Russian-declared cease-fire as a "farce," accusing Moscow's forces of committing hundreds of violations along the entire front line on the first day of the 72-hour truce.
Meanwhile, Ukraine's parliament ratified an agreement giving the United States privileged access to the country's mineral wealth, cementing a deal Trump has cast as an important element of his efforts to broker an end to Russia's war against its neighbor.
Zelenskyy welcomed the parliament's ratification of the Economic Partnership Agreement, calling it "a truly historic document that opens up many new opportunities for cooperation."
He said he spoke with Trump by phone and discussed "the need for continued efforts to achieve peace, including concrete steps that could be taken." Zelenskyy said on X that Trump "confirmed that he wants this war to end, is ready to help, and supports the need for a ceasefire. We agreed on our further contacts."
But the accusations that Russia was violating its promise to hold its fire for three days unless attacked underscore the challenges facing the push for peace. US Vice President JD Vance said a day earlier that "the gulf is wide" between the positions of Moscow and Kyiv.
Kyiv and other major Ukrainian cities were quiet after the cease-fire came into effect at midnight, with no reports of long-range drone or missile attacks after successive nights of bombardment.
But the situation at the front, which runs about 1,200 kilometers from the Russian border in the east to the Black Sea in the south, was a different story, Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha wrote in a post on X.
"According to our military data...Russian forces continue to attack across the entire frontline. From midnight to midday, Russia committed 734 cease-fire violations and 63 assault operations, 23 of which are still ongoing," Sybiha wrote.
Russian President Vladimir Putin announced last month that Russia would hold its fire from May 8 to May 10 -- a period coinciding with a May 9 military parade on Red Square and other celebrations marking the 80th anniversary of the defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II -- and urged Ukraine to do the same.
Sybiha wrote that there had been "586 attacks on our troops' positions, 464 of which used heavy weapons; 176 strikes by...drones; and 10 air strikes using 16 guided aerial bombs."
"Predictably, Putin's 'Parade ceasefire' proves to be a farce," he wrote.
The Ukrainian Air Force said earlier that Russian aircraft twice launched guided bombs targeting the Sumy region in northeastern Ukraine in the early hours of May 8, and a soldier in the eastern Donetsk region said Russian forces had used drones and bombs in morning attacks.
The air force said the first bombs in the Sumy region were launched nearly three hours after the cease-fire came into force at midnight. The second round of bombs was launched within two hours, it said on Telegram. There was no word on damage.
A soldier with Ukraine's 115th Brigade, deployed at the front near Lyman in the Donetsk region, told Current Time that there was no shelling after midnight but that Russian forces targeted the Ukrainians with drones and bombs and that one soldier in his unit was wounded.
"This is what they call a cease-fire," the soldier said.
The Reuters news agency cited a Ukrainian military spokesman as saying that Russian troops had continued to conduct assaults in several areas on the eastern front, which runs through the Donetsk region.
Air Alert
The Ukrainian Air Force declared an air alert across the eastern part of the country on the morning of May 8, citing what it said was the threat of a Russian ballistic missile attack.
Russia also accused Ukraine of violating the cease-fire, which Kyiv had not committed to observe. Zelenskyy and other officials asserted that it was an effort to create the impression that Moscow wants to end the war and a bid to ensure there were no Ukrainian attacks during the Victory Day ceremonies, which brought several foreign leaders to Moscow.
Among them was Chinese President Xi Jinping, who met with Putin in the Kremlin on May 8.
Amid Western sanctions, China has helped keep Russia's economy going and fund its war against Ukraine, now in its fourth year since Putin ordered the full-scale invasion in February 2022, including by buying Russian oil and gas, and has not publicly criticized the Kremlin for the bloodshed.
Putin has used false claims that Ukraine's government is neo-Nazi as one of the justifications for the unprovoked invasion.
"Together with our Chinese friends, we firmly stand on guard of historical truth, protect the memory of events of the war years and counter modern manifestations of neo-Nazism and militarism," Putin said in a public portion of the meeting with Xi.
Xi told Putin that Beijing stood alongside Russia in the face of "unilateralism and hegemonic bullying," a reference to the countries' anti-US stance. He said "China will work with Russia to shoulder the special responsibilities of major world powers."
Xi called Putin his "old friend" and Putin called Xi his "dear friend."
After their meeting in Moscow on May 8, Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping signed a statement to deepen the comprehensive strategic partnership between their two countries.
The statement also said Moscow and Beijing would continue to strengthen their military collaboration and would "actively increase the coordination of their approaches and deepen practical cooperation."
Other guests in Moscow include Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, who has openly challenged the European Union's support for Ukraine, and Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, who made the trip despite EU pressure that visiting Moscow could derail Serbia's ambitions to join the bloc.
Joint Investment
The minerals calls for the creation of a joint investment fund that is intended to help rebuild Ukraine once the fighting is over. Under the deal, Ukraine will contribute 50 percent of all revenues from the sale of new minerals, as well as oil and gas projects.
The Russian-declared cease-fire followed days of deadly Russian bombardments of Kyiv and other cities and three straight nights of Ukrainian drone attacks on Moscow, creating jitters ahead of the Victory Day parade on Red Square, which Putin traditionally addresses from a grandstand with guests in attendance.
Zelenskyy also said that Ukraine stood by its offer to observe a 30-day cease-fire in the war, which began when Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
“Our proposal for a halt to the strikes, for a cease-fire of at least 30 days, still stands -- we are not withdrawing this proposal, as it offers a real chance for diplomacy,” he said in his nightly video address on May 7.
Russia has not responded to the 30-day cease-fire offer except for new strikes, he said.
"This clearly and obviously demonstrates to everyone who the source of the war is," he added.
Zelenskyy also appeared to acknowledge the numerous drone attacks that have been targeting Russian sites this week. The attacks forced the closure of airports in Moscow and the grounding of flights.
"And it is entirely fair that the Russian sky -- the sky of the aggressor -- is not calm either today," Zelenskyy said.
Both countries are under pressure from Trump to bring a swift end to the war, the biggest conflict in Europe since World War II.
Putin has said he is committed to achieving peace, but Vance said the Russians “are asking too much" as the United States tries to bring the two sides to the table.
Vance also suggested that Ukraine should not be fixated on the idea of a 30-day cease-fire. He said "the gulf is wide" but he is "reasonably optimistic" about the chances of ending the war.
"The step we need to take right now is we need Russia and Ukraine to start talking to one another," said Vance. "We think it's probably impossible for us to mediate the whole process fully without at least some direct negotiations."
With reporting by Reuters, AFP, and AP
- By Ray Furlong and
- Daud Khattak
India-Pakistan War Drumbeat Quickens As Islamabad Accuses New Delhi Of Sparking 'Inferno'
Indian and Pakistani forces have exchanged artillery fire after Indian air strikes claimed multiple lives, as tensions between the two nuclear-armed regional powers threatened to boil over.
Pakistani Prime Minister Shebaz Sharif vowed retaliation and an emergency meeting of the National Security Committee in Islamabad on May 7 concluded with a decision authorizing the country's military to respond.
It said that India had "ignited an inferno in the region.”
Following the decision, crowds gathered in several Pakistani cities to voice anger at India's attack and support for retaliation.
"We are standing side by side with the army," protester Fazal Hussain told RFE/RL's Radio Mashaal in Peshawar. He added that "we will hoist the Pakistani flag" in Delhi.
Another man at the rally, Abdul Hanan, said India had staged a "cowardly attack."
Both sides reported several fatalities in the shelling on May 7. Pakistan also claimed to have shot down several Indian jets.
“The moment the Indian side released payloads, we engaged their jets and shot five Indian jets," Sharif said during an address to parliament.
Hours earlier, Indian forces hit targets across Pakistani-administered Kashmir and Pakistan’s Punjab Province.
India said it carried out “precision strikes” against “terrorists” following the attack in Indian-administered Kashmir two weeks ago that killed 26 Hindu tourists.
India had earlier said that two of three suspects in that attack were Pakistani nationals but had not detailed any evidence. Pakistan denied that it had anything to do with the killings.
The Pakistani military said only civilians were killed in the strikes on May 7.
This information was followed by the Pakistan-based militant group Jaish-e-Mohammed putting out a statement saying that 10 family members of its leader, Maulana Masood Azhar, had been killed.
This information could not be immediately confirmed independently.
Worst Fighting In Decades
This is the worst fighting between the two sides in more than two decades. Pakistan called the Indian strikes “a blatant act of war.”
As the latest crisis unfolds, media outlets and political leaders on both sides are amplifying war rhetoric. Prime-time talk shows, military-themed advertisements, and nationalist songs are fueling public sentiment.
On social media, users wage digital wars, trading threats and propaganda on platforms like TikTok, Instagram, and Facebook.
On May 3, Pakistani channels aired breaking news of the test-fire of the 450-kilometer range Abdali missile. Indian networks, meanwhile, broadcast from high-tech “war rooms,” with dramatic graphics and commentary designed to stir patriotic fervor.
Dr. Tauseef Ahmad Khan, author and former head of the Mass Communication Department at the Federal Urdu University in Karachi, said: “Indian media is under the influence of Prime Minister [Narendra] Modi’s ‘Hindutva’ ideology, while Pakistani media is tightly controlled by the deep state. There’s no room left for sanity.”
The Kashmir Conflict
The dispute over the mountainous Kashmir region was born from the bloody partition of British India in 1947.
India and Pakistan have already fought three full-scale wars in 1948, 1965 and 1971, and a limited conflict in 1999 also known as the Kargil War.
Due to the power imbalance between the two -- India being militarily and economically stronger -- Pakistan has supported both local and cross-border militant groups since the 1980s to fuel an armed insurgency in Kashmir.
The European Union called for both sides to take steps to deescalate the situation.
"The EU recalls the need for a negotiated, agreed and lasting, peaceful solution to the conflict," EU foreign affairs spokesman Anouar El Anouni told reporters.
This latest escalation in the conflict has also sounded alarm bells in Washington, where US President Donald Trump said he had been informed about the attack and hopes the fighting "ends very quickly."
In New York, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres expressed concern about the attack and called for maximum restraint from both countries.
"The world cannot afford a military confrontation between India and Pakistan," Guterres said, according to his spokesman.
Vance Says Putin 'Asking Too Much,' Calls For Direct Talks As Russia, Ukraine Exchange Major Drone Strikes
US Vice President JD Vance called for direct negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, saying a deal to end Moscow's war against its neighbor might be out of reach without such contacts.
In comments on May 7, Vance said Russia is "asking too much" but also suggested Ukraine should not be fixated on the idea of a 30-day cease-fire. He said "the gulf is wide" but he is "reasonably optimistic" about the chances of ending the war.
"You don't need to agree with Russian justification of the war, but you need to understand where they are coming from -- making them talk of what it takes for them to end the war," Vance said at an event in Washington. "[The] Russians are asking for certain set of things, and we think they are asking too much."
"The step we need to take right now is we need Russia and Ukraine to start talking to one another," said Vance. "We think it's probably impossible for us to mediate the whole process fully without at least some direct negotiations."
The comments from Vance, who said last week that the biggest war in Europe since 1945 would not end "anytime soon," spoke after Russia and Ukraine exchanged major drone attacks ahead of World War II commemorations on May 8-9.
Russia fired ballistic missiles and dozens of drones at Ukraine overnight, killing at least two people and wounding several others in Kyiv in one of the heaviest attacks in recent weeks.
Meanwhile, Ukraine launched one of its biggest drone attacks yet on May 6-7, targeting Moscow for the third straight night ahead of a May 9 military parade marking Nazi Germany's defeat in World War II. No injuries were reported.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in his nightly address on May 7 that his country stood by its offer to observe a 30-day cease-fire.
"Ukraine's proposal to cease strikes and establish at least a 30-day ceasefire remains in force," Zelenskyy said. "We are not withdrawing this proposal, which could give diplomacy a chance."
Zelenskyy also indirectly acknowledged the numerous drone attacks that have been targeting Russia in recent days.
"It is absolutely fair that Russian skies, the skies of the aggressor, are also not calm today, in a mirror-like way," he said.
On the diplomatic front, Germany's new chancellor vowed continued European support for Ukraine's defense against Russia and said US engagement is crucial for ending the war and ensuring peace once the fighting stops.
In Kyiv, falling debris from destroyed drones sparked fires in apartments and buildings in three districts, Ukraine's military administration said on social media. A Russian drone strike in the morning hours of May 7 killed two people and wounded six others, including four children, the State Emergency Service reported.
Russia launched four ballistic missiles and 142 drones overnight, Zelenskyy said in social media posts on May 7. In a statement on Telegram, the Russian Defense Ministry said its forces had destroyed 524 drones.
Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said Russian air defense units destroyed at least 14 Ukrainian drones after 10 p.m. local time on May 6. Russian officials said Ukrainian drones were destroyed on their approach to Moscow, whose key airports remained out of operation for most of the night.
Ukraine's drone attack on Moscow was the third in as many nights and comes as the Russian capital prepares for Victory Day celebrations to mark the 80th anniversary of the Nazi surrender and the end of World War II in Europe.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, who expects to host Chinese President Xi Jinping and the leaders of several other nations at the May 9 parade on Red Square, announced late last month that Russia would cease fire for 72 hours on May 8-10 and called on Kyiv to do the same.
Zelenskyy has called the measure a pointless propaganda ploy and said Russia should agree to an unconditional cease-fire over at least 30 days, in line with a US proposal launched in March. Ukraine agreed to that proposal, but Russia did not.
Vance seemed to indicate Kyiv should not not press on the issue.
"The gulf [between the Russian and Ukrainian positions] is wide now, but I am reasonable optimistic now. We are trying now to move away from the obsession with a 30-day cease-fire," he said. "If cool heads prevail here, we can stop the killing.
The three-day cease-fire took effect, the Kremlin said on May 8 just after midnight. It said earlier that Russia would respond "immediately" if Ukraine launched an attack.
Air attacks and heavy fighting have persisted despite US President Donald Trump's effort to broker an end to the war, which has killed tens of thousands of soldiers on both sides and a growing number of Ukrainian civilians since Putin launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
US officials have warned Washington could abandon its push for peace if there's no major progress soon, and the future of US military aid to Kyiv is uncertain, adding to pressure on Europe to play a robust role and provide security for Ukraine.
In Paris, on his first trip abroad in office, new German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on May 7 that all members of the European Union must boost their defense spending.
"Only in this way can we gradually close our capability gaps and collectively support Ukraine," Merz said at a press conference alongside French President Emmanuel Macron.
Merz urged the United States not to walk away, saying that Ukraine can "continue relying on Germany and France in its fight against Russian aggression" but stressing, "We cannot end this war...without a continued involvement of the United States of America; this is not something that Europeans can substitute for."
"Let me say this very clearly as well, ladies and gentlemen, President Trump has our full support when it comes to bringing about an end to the war," Merz said. He added that European countries are ready to participate in any monitoring of a cease-fire "under the leadership, and with the participation of, the United States."
Russia, which seized the Crimean Peninsula and fomented war in the eastern region known as the Donbas in 2014, now controls about one-fifth of Ukraine, and members of the Trump administration have suggested Kyiv would have to cede some territory to Russia if it wants peace.
In his comment in Washington, Vance did not specify what Russian demands or requests were seen by the United States as going too far.
Amid the diplomacy over a potential cease-fire, senior Russian officials have said a peace plan must include, among other things, recognition that four mainland Ukraine regions Moscow claims as its own -- including parts that Kyiv still controls -- are Russian. Russia has also called for a strict limits on Ukraine's military power.
In his first media interview since he left office in January, Trump's predecessor Joe Biden told the BBC that pressuring Ukraine to give up territory in the name of peace was "modern-day appeasement."
Referring to Putin, Biden suggested he wants to control Ukraine and said that "anybody [who] thinks he's going to stop is just foolish."
There was no immediate comment from the White House on Biden's remarks in the interview, which was conducted May 5 and published May 7.
With reporting by AP, Reuters, and AFP
- By RFE/RL
Trump Announces End To Bombing Of Houthi Rebels In Yemen, Saying They 'Don't Want To Fight Anymore'
US President Donald Trump said on May 6 that he's ordering a halt to US air strikes on Houthi rebels in Yemen after the Iran-backed group agreed to stop attacking ships on important shipping routes in the Middle East.
“We’re going to stop the bombing of the Houthis, effective immediately,” Trump said at the start of a meeting at the White House with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney.
After Trump made the announcement, Oman said it had mediated the cease-fire, and confirmed that the US campaign was ending.
“In the future, neither side will target the other, including American vessels, in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab Strait, ensuring freedom of navigation and the smooth flow of international commercial shipping,” Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi said on X, calling the agreement a “welcome outcome.”
The United States launched a campaign of air strikes in March, and Trump promised to use “overwhelming lethal force.”
That came after the Houthis said they would resume attacks on Israeli vessels sailing off Yemen in response to Israel's mounting another blockade on the Gaza Strip.
Trump said on May 6 that the Houthis had indicated to US officials that “they don’t want to fight anymore. They just don’t want to fight. And we will honor that, and we will stop the bombings.”
He said the announcement means the Houthis “will not be blowing up ships anymore.”
The Houthis have been firing at shipping in the Red Sea and at Israel since Israel began its military offensive in Gaza against Hamas, which has been designated by the United States and the EU as a terrorist organization, after the Palestinian militant group launched a deadly attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.
The statement from Oman did not mention whether the Houthis had agreed to stop attacks on Israel.
The head of Yemen's Houthi Supreme Political Council, Mahdi al-Mashat, said the group would continue to support Gaza.
Separately, the head of Yemen's Houthi supreme revolutionary committee, Mohammed Ali al-Houthi, said on X that the US halt of "aggression" against Yemen would be evaluated.
Israel’s military on May 6 launched air strikes against the Houthis that it said fully disabled the international airport in the Yemeni capital, Sanaa. Israel’s attacks were in retaliation for a Houthi missile strike on May 4 on Israel’s international airport.
Gregory Brew, a senior analyst with the Eurasia Group risk-analysis firm, said on X that the Houthis have not fired on a commercial ship since December.
“They are likely, however, to continue shooting at Israel,” Brew said.
From November 2023 until January 2025, the Houthis targeted more than 100 merchant vessels with missiles and drones. That has greatly reduced the flow of trade through the Red Sea corridor, which typically sees $1 trillion of goods move through it annually.
With reporting by AP and Reuters
- By Daud Khattak
Pakistan And India Say Civilians Killed After India Fires Missiles Into Pakistani Territory
Pakistan said eight people were killed early on May 7 in missile strikes launched by Indian armed forces and called the attack a "blatant act of war" amid mounting tensions between the nuclear-armed neighbors.
The fighting was the worst in more than two decades and followed an attack by Islamist assailants that killed 26 Hindu tourists in India-controlled Kashmir last month. India blamed Pakistan-based militants for the deadly attack; Pakistan denied involvement.
India said it struck nine Pakistani sites that were "terrorist infrastructure" from which attacks against it were orchestrated.
India said it also suffered deaths among its civilian population. The army said three civilians were killed by Pakistani troops who resorted to "arbitrary" shelling across the Line of Control, the de facto border that divides Kashmir, which is at the center of an 80-year-old territorial dispute between the two countries, and their international borders.
It added that the Indian Army was "responding in proportionate manner."
The director-general of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), Lieutenant General Ahmad Sharif, told a news conference that there had been "24 impacts from India on six places" and these resulted in the killing of eight citizens and the wounding of 35. Another eight are missing.
"Pakistan will return a response to the attack," he said before ending the news conference without taking questions.
He did not mention a report that the country's air force shot down Indian jets in retaliation. Pakistani Information Minister Attaullah Tarar said on Xthat three Indian jets and one Indian drone had been shot down by Pakistan.
State Of Emergency
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif scheduled an emergency meeting of the National Security Committee for 10 a.m. local time on May 7.
The chief minister of Punjab Province, Maryam Nawaz, declared a state of emergency in the province, which borders India. All schools, colleges, and universities will be closed. Police and other security agencies have been placed on high alert, and doctors on leave have been asked to report for duty.
Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry said the attack posed a significant threat to commercial air traffic, and the country suspended all flights and operations at the Lahore and Islamabad airports for 48 hours.
An Indian military statement referred to the military action as Operation Sindoor and said nine sites were hit.
"A little while ago, the Indian Armed Forces launched 'OPERATION SINDOOR', hitting terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir from where terrorist attacks against India have been planned and directed," the statement said.
“Our actions have been focused, measured and non-escalatory in nature. No Pakistan military facilities have been targeted,” the statement said, adding that “India has demonstrated considerable restraint in selection of targets and method of execution.”
The ISPR said India fired missiles at three locations -- Muzaffarabad, the main city of Pakistan-controlled Kashmir; Kotli, also in Pakistan-administered Kashmir; and Bahawalpur in Punjab Province. The Bahawalpur and Muridke areas are considered centers for the banned groups Jaish-e Muhammad and Lashkar-e Jhangvi.
The attack sounded alarm bells in Washington, where US President Donald Trump said he had been informed about the attack and hopes the fighting "ends very quickly." In New York, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres expressed concern about the attack and called for maximum restraint from both countries.
"The world cannot afford a military confrontation between India and Pakistan," Guterres said, according to his spokesman.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio contacted Pakistani national-security adviser Lieutenant General Asim Malik, who is also chief of Pakistan's prime intelligence agency, Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), to discussed the situation.
Rubio also spoke with his counterpart from India and said he would continue to engage with both New Delhi and Islamabad to reach a resolution to the conflict.
"He is encouraging India and Pakistan to re-open a channel between their leadership to defuse the situation and prevent further escalation," said National Security Council spokesman Brian Hughes in a statement.
Soaring Tensions
Tensions have soared between the two countries in the aftermath of the deadly attack on the Hindu tourists.
Hassan Abbas, a professor of international relations at the Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies, told RFE/RL that while terrorism must always be condemned, Pakistan’s hasty framing of the incident as a false-flag operation by India -- without investigation -- is irresponsible. Equally, India’s rush to blame Pakistan without credible evidence only deepens mistrust and raises the risk of escalation, Abbas said.
"We need a different kind of courage now -- the courage to imagine cooperation...not confrontation. In a region facing the twin crises of poverty and climate vulnerability, war is a luxury no one can afford," Abbas said.
Hussain Haqqani, former Pakistani ambassador to the United States and senior fellow at the Anwar Gargash Diplomatic Academy and Hudson Foundation, told RFE/RL that domestic politics on both sides requires the leadership of the two countries to take a nationalistic stance.
The only sane approach in this situation for India is to demonstrate a strike and for Pakistan to respond in a way that the situation should not flare up, Haqqani said.
“But if one side strikes, then another responds, and then the other strikes again and it continues, then it could go out of control,” he added.
Although the people of the two countries are cheering at the moment, it would be the people who would be hurt the most, because the economies of the two countries will suffer, he said.
Tauseef Ahmad Khan, an author and former head of the Mass Communication Department at Federal Urdu University in Karachi, said that India-Pakistan tensions ignite artificial patriotism.
"The 1.5 billion people of the region -- many living in poverty -- are the real victims of this conflict,” Khan said.
Indian media is under the influence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s "Hindutva" ideology, while Pakistani media is tightly controlled by what he called the deep state, Khan told RFE/RL.
"There’s no room left for sanity,” he said.
With reporting by Reuters and AP
- By Systema
EU To Formally Accuse Russia Of Using Chemical Weapons In Ukraine
The Council of the European Union has prepared a new sanctions regulation that, for the first time, formally accuses Russia of using CS gas as a method of warfare on the front lines in Ukraine.
In an explanatory memorandum seen by RFE/RL's Russian Investigative Unit Systema, EU officials refer to two reports by the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), published at Ukraine's request in November 2024 and February 2025, as the basis for the move.
This proposal is part of a three-package set of sanctions the EU is expected to adopt in the coming days. The other two target cyberattacks and Russian destabilization campaigns in Europe. According to internal EU sources, a fourth package of sanctions focused on targeting Russia's shadow fleet will follow.
The reports document the alleged use of CS gas in Maryivka and Ilinka, in the Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine, during Russian attacks in 2024.
The OPCW based its reports on soil and water samples, interviews with military personnel, and photographs of hand-grenade casings marked "RG-Vo," which stands for "hand grenade -- toxic agent."
Russia's RT state television channel aired footage of Russian troops using such Russian-made grenades on the battlefield.
"In light of the seriousness of the situation, in absence of a credible explanation from Russia regarding its widely reported use of riot control agents, and to enhance the global norm against the use of chemical weapons, the European Union calls for a timely attribution of the proven use of riot control agents as a method of warfare by the OPCW," the memorandum says.
The EU sanctions list will include the Russian Defense Ministry's Radiological, Chemical, and Biological Defense Troops, and the 27th and 33rd scientific research centers involved in the development and use of chemical agents.
CS is a tear gas also known as "Lilac." It causes severe irritation to the eyes, skin, and respiratory tract. Those coming in contact with it lose orientation and can suffocate.
Formally, CS is considered a nonlethal means of suppressing riots and is used by police in many countries. The use of such substances as weapons is prohibited by Article 1 of the Chemical Weapons Convention, EU officials note.
According to Ukraine's Defense Ministry, capsules with such gas have also been found inside Iranian-made Shahed drones, which have been widely used by Russia in its attacks on Ukraine.
- By Current Time
Russia, Ukraine Swap 205 Prisoners Of War In Latest Deal
Ukraine and Russia have conducted a prisoner exchange involving 410 soldiers -- 205 from each side -- the latest in a series of swaps resulting from their ongoing war.
The Russian Defense Ministry said on May 6 that the Russian soldiers involved in the exchange, which was mediated by the United Arab Emirates, are currently in Belarus as they head back to Russia for treatment and rehabilitation.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed the action, saying the POWs came from almost "all types and branches of the armed forces," including "defenders of Mariupol and the entire front line."
Russia's bloody siege of the Azov Sea city of Mariupol months into the full-scale invasion of Ukraine saw fighters battle Russian troops for months before around 2,500 surrendered in May 2022.
An April 19 exchange saw 277 Ukrainian POWs return home, according to Kyiv, while Moscow says it received 246 soldiers. In total, more than 3,000 prisoners have been swapped through U.A.E.-mediated exchanges since Russia's full-scale invasion began in February 2022.
The latest swap comes as renewed Western efforts to resolve the conflict, pushed in large part by US President Donald Trump, have begun to falter, as Russia continues to press its advantage on the battlefield in Ukraine.
Despite an earlier tentative agreement to limit attacks on energy infrastructure, Ukraine and Russia have also continued to target oil pipelines, power plants, electricity transmission lines, and other crucial sites.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has called for a three-day cease-fire in its Ukraine invasion beginning on May 8 to coincide with Victory Day celebrations.
The proposal was dismissed by Kyiv as "theater." Zelenskyy has called instead for a longer, 30-day cease-fire.
Iran Begins Rolling Blackouts in Tehran As Electricity Demand Soars
Iran’s continued struggle with electricity shortages has led to the implementation of rolling blackouts in the capital, Tehran.
Power cuts have become a fixture of both summer and winter months, but rolling blackouts this year have started earlier than usual despite the temperatures being relatively low.
Government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani said during her weekly press conference on May 6 that the country was facing “multiple imbalances,” referring to rising demand for electricity, water, and gas.
She said the government of President Masud Pezeshkian “needs time” to address the energy shortage, without explicitly saying how much time was required. Experts say electricity consumption in Iran rises by about 7 percent, or 5,000 megawatts, every year.
Dalga Khatinoglu, an energy expert based in Azerbaijan, told RFE/RL’s Radio Farda that Iran has no short-term solution for its electricity shortage, and even if it were to triple or quadruple its power production, it might only reach a balance sometime in the next decade.
Meanwhile, Tehran city Councilor Jafar Bandi Sharibani accused the authorities of discriminatory practices by imposing longer blackouts in lower-income neighborhoods.
Electricity consumption in Iran peaked at over 72,000 megawatts in the Iranian year 1402 (March 2023-23), while actual power generation capacity in the summer maxed out at around 60,000 megawatts.
Mostafa Rajabi Mashhadi, a spokesperson for Iran’s state-run power distribution company Tavanir, said that electricity consumption nationwide in the last two weeks rose by 9,000 megawatts compared to the same period last year.
Despite sitting atop the world’s second-largest natural gas reserves, Iran continues to face recurring energy shortages in both summer and winter.
Generous energy subsidies keep household bills low, but they also fuel excessive consumption.
Amid the struggle to keep the lights on, proponents of Iran’s nuclear program argue the country needs nuclear energy to generate electricity.
US President Donald Trump has called for the “total dismantlement” of the nuclear program, but has said he is open to considering allowing Iran to maintain a civil nuclear program to generate electricity.
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi last month said his country aims to build 19 more nuclear reactors -- a goal it has been pursuing since the 2000s. He teased that "tens of billions of dollars in potential contracts are up for grabs" and open to US investment, should Tehran and Washington reach a deal on Iran's nuclear program.
EU-Ukraine Free Trade In The Balance; Warsaw, Lviv Meetings Set Up New War Tribunal
Welcome to Wider Europe, RFE/RL's newsletter focusing on the key issues concerning the European Union, NATO, and other institutions and their relationships with the Western Balkans and Europe's Eastern neighborhoods.
I'm RFE/RL Europe Editor Rikard Jozwiak, and this week I'm drilling down on two issues: Why EU and Ukraine trade will be less free going forward and an upcoming flurry of important meetings in Lviv and Warsaw.
Briefing #1: Why EU-Ukraine Trade Is About To Get Less Free
What You Need To Know: Since June 2022, the European Union has granted Ukraine full trade liberalization to help support the war-torn country's economy. These measures -- suspending import duties and quotas -- are known as Autonomous Trade Measures (ATMs), and they appear to have benefited Kyiv.
In 2024, Ukrainian exports to the EU reached nearly 60 percent of total exports, up from 39.1 percent in 2021. However, the ATMs, which have been renewed annually by a majority vote of EU member states, are set to end definitively on June 5. They were always intended to be temporary and could only be extended twice.
Now, negotiations are under way between Brussels and Kyiv on what will replace them.
The fallback option is a return to the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement , which came into force in 2017 (though provisionally applied from 2016), and includes a free trade component.
The current talks focus on Article 29 of that agreement, which outlines a framework for potential reciprocal tariff liberalization.
But it is far from smooth sailing, as time is running short, and the effects of the ATMs aren't universally liked in the bloc.
Deep Background: Farmers in so-called frontline EU border states, such as Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria, have long lobbied their governments to get rid of them, arguing that a glut of Ukrainian agricultural goods has overwhelmed local storage and pushed down prices for local food producers.
At various times in 2023 and 2024, these farmers blocked the borders with Ukraine to prevent goods from entering the EU. In response, the European Commission, which oversees EU trade policies, tried several solutions, including sealing agricultural shipments from Ukraine to divert them away from frontline countries and toward other EU destinations or ports for export beyond the bloc.
In the end, the commission agreed to limit inflows of the most popular agricultural goods by enacting emergency brakes. These brakes could be pulled if certain imports exceeded the average import numbers recorded between July 1, 2021, and December 31, 2024. And the brakes have been used readily in the past year on Ukrainian exports of oats, eggs, sugar, and honey.
The official line of the European Commission is that it is "finalizing the work on the proposal to ensure a seamless transition to a new trade regime with Ukraine after the expiry of the ATMs" and that this proposal will soon be presented to Kyiv.
The question is when. Many EU officials in Brussels are worried that any new proposal could become a political hot potato in the Polish presidential election campaign when the country goes to the polls to select a new head of state on May 18, and a likely second round on June 1.
But it is not only the political sway of Polish farmers that needs to be heeded.
A joint letter by the agriculture ministers of Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia addressed to the European Commission and seen by RFE/RL has also raised the stakes.
The letter states that the ministers "firmly believe that the upcoming expiration of the ATM regime must serve as an opportunity to reassess and recalibrate our trade relations with Ukraine. It is essential to ensure that future trade arrangements reflect a balanced approach that accommodates the interests of all parties without disproportionately harming the economies of neighboring member states."
It then goes on to highlight several new proposals, all of which would be disadvantageous to Kyiv.
These include:
- A return to prewar tariff quotas;
- Bilateral safeguard provisions for all agricultural products;
- Frontline member states being able to impose extra safeguards; and
- A review clause to reassess the agreement two years after its application -- aimed at preventing future market distortions and ensuring fair competition for EU farmers.
But it doesn't end there.
The ministers also argue that "in parallel with Ukraine's accession process, relevant sanitary and phytosanitary, animal welfare, public health, and environment-related regulations in line with EU standards should be introduced for Ukrainian agricultural production."
Drilling Down
- While such reforms are indeed necessary for eventual EU membership, it's notable that one of the letter's signatories, Hungary, is currently blocking that very accession process.
- The ministers also propose a minimum import price threshold for selected items, which "could play a deterrent role in terms of importing agricultural goods into EU Member States at prices below the cost of domestically produced agricultural products" -- effectively another trade barrier and a clear move to shield local farmers.
- So, what does Ukraine want? Simply put, almost more of the same. In a letter to the commission, seen by RFE/RL, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal writes that, "without substantial guaranteed and ongoing multi-industry trade liberalization, Ukraine will simply be unable to rebuild its industries, create jobs and livelihoods for its citizens to recover its economy. Simply put, Ukraine needs your trade. First to survive, then to thrive."
- Shmyhal also warns that, failing to strike a preferential trade deal with Brussels could cost Ukraine €3 billion ($3.4 billion) annually, potentially leading to a 1 percent reduction in Ukraine's gross domestic product.
- While accepting that any new deal is likely to come under the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement, Shmyhal says that it should "contain a minimum number of exceptions" and points out that "we are obviously aware of concerns of European farmers, but we emphasize that the share of Ukrainian products on the European market remains relatively small. For many product groups, even those considered sensitive, it's less than 1 percent of total EU consumption."
- He also suggests that the safeguard measures introduced for certain products in 2024 "should become the starting point for gradually liberalized tariff quotas" on agricultural goods.
- Given the looming June 5 deadline, Shmyhal has also hinted at some sort of bridging solution -- something that I have heard might happen.
- "If it is impossible to reach a solution in time before the 5th of June, we need to find a joint short-term solution so current Ukrainian exports can continue until the Association Agreement is updated," he said.
- "Otherwise, there is a risk of returning to higher tariffs and lower quantities under the tariff quotas of the prewar period, and this would cause significant damages to the Ukrainian economy."
Briefing #2: Sanctions, War Tribunal On Agenda As EU Ministers Prepare To Meet
What You Need To Know: European Union foreign ministers will gather in Warsaw this week for an informal council meeting and then head to Lviv in a show of solidarity with Ukraine in the face of major Victory Day celebrations in Russia.
Few concrete decisions are expected be made in either Poland on May 7-8, nor a day later in the western Ukrainian city of Lviv, as these aren’t official EU councils.
“In line with the meeting's informal nature and taking benefit from the more intimate (ministers-only) setting, we encourage everyone's contribution to a truly frank and non-scripted discussion," according to a welcoming note for the Warsaw meeting that was seen by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.
"In this spirit, we recommend that our working sessions take place without interpretation or electronic devices. We also kindly invite you to opt for semi-formal attire throughout the meeting.”
The informality doesn't mean the meetings will lack high-level officials and come at a time when Russian President Vladimir Putin is looking to capture the world's attention with a massive military parade in front of dozens of dignitaries from around the world.
During the first day of the Warsaw meeting, UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy will join to discuss European security, while the second day is dedicated to EU-US relations and the situation in Ukraine.
On the latter, the welcome note, signed by the EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas and the host, Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski, proposes an "in-depth discussion" on the EU's role in bolstering Ukraine's negotiation position toward a "just and lasting peace."
Officials will look to do this, the note says, by "building on our unique collective leverage -- broad support to Ukraine, in particular financial and military, pressure to constrain Russia's war chest, Ukraine's EU accession path, and the ongoing work on enhancing European defense capabilities.”
Deep Background: While no decisions are to be rubber stamped, there are three developments pertaining to Ukraine that analysts said will be closely watched.
The EU is aiming to announce more cash for Ukraine's defense industry, though a figure has yet to be agreed.
The bloc is also expected to accelerate sanctions on Russia in the wake of numerous missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities in recent weeks.
According to EU diplomats, it is likely to be a smaller package consisting mainly of the further blacklisting of Russian officers and politicians along with adding ships belonging to the Russian shadow fleet that will be banned from getting services in European ports.
Drilling Down
- Major new economic sanctions against Russia aren't expected to avoid dissent from some EU capitals and instead get a quick green light as a sign of solidarity in ratcheting up pressure on Moscow.
- The Lviv meeting is set to take place as the ministers attend the establishment of a special tribunal aimed at prosecuting senior Russian and Belarusian leaders for the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
- The tribunal is meant as a complement to the ongoing International Criminal Court (ICC) investigation into war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide that was launched three years ago.
- It will fill in the gaps as the ICC isn’t looking into what are legally known as "crimes of aggression" -- meaning things such as military occupation, annexation and bombardments.
- A so-called core group of countries, including all EU member states except Hungary and Slovakia, as well as the G7 minus the United States, have drawn up three documents on an agreement with Ukraine to establish the tribunal.
- The actual tribunal won't be formally set up until the Council of Europe's committee of ministers votes on it on May 14.
- The EU and Kyiv have been gathering evidence on crimes of aggression since 2023.
Looking Ahead
The European Parliament is meeting this week, and there's plenty on the agenda.
On May 7, the chamber will debate both the potential peace negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow and the need for the Kremlin to return Ukrainian children who have been forcibly taken to Russia.
European lawmakers will also quiz the European Commission on the recent electricity blackout on the Iberian peninsula and a recent ruling in the EU courts forbidding Malta's so-called "golden passport scheme," which has allowed people, notably several Russians, to buy EU citizenship.
That's all for this week!
Feel free to reach out to me on any of these issues on X @RikardJozwiak, or on e-mail at jozwiakr@rferl.org.
Until next time,
Rikard Jozwiak
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- By RFE/RL
Russia, Ukraine Exchange Barrage Of Drones Ahead Of WWII Victory Day
Russia and Ukraine targeted each other with drone strikes on May 6 as both Moscow and Kyiv gear up for Victory Day celebrations marking the 80th anniversary of the surrender of Nazi Germany during World War II.
Russia targeted Ukraine's second-largest city, Kharkiv, with nearly 20 drones on May 6, injuring at least four people, local prosecutors said.
The main market street in Kharkiv was hit in the attack, which happened overnight.
Meanwhile, Russia's Defense Ministry said Ukraine launched more than 100 drones at targets in 11 regions overnight, including the capital. The ministry claimed air defenses intercepted or downed 105 drones.
In Moscow, at least 19 Ukrainian drones were destroyed on their approach to the city, Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said on Telegram.
There was no "serious damage or injuries" where debris fell near one of the main highways leading into the city, he said.
Flights were suspended at all four airports that serve Moscow, Russia's aviation regulator said. Flights resumed several hours later.
In the Kursk border region, where Russian troops recently pushed out the remnants of a Ukrainian force that had invaded last summer, Ukrainian forces attacked a power substation, according to Governor Aleksandr Khinshtein.
The attack injured two teenagers and damaged two transformers, he said. The damage cut power to the area.
There was no immediate comment from Kyiv about the attack, but Ukrainian officials have previously said such assaults are aimed at hitting military targets and infrastructure used to support Moscow's war efforts.
Authorities in Ukraine's Sumy region, to the northwest, urged residents to evacuate homes in two cities near the border after Russian forces fired artillery into two settlements, killing three people and injuring four.
"The Sumy region. Since morning, Russia has been striking border settlements," the Interior Ministry said on Telegram.
Despite Russian President Vladimir Putin's call for a three-day cease-fire in the Ukraine war, beginning May 8, there are no signs of any let up in the violence, either on the battlefield or in the daily exchange of drone barrages between Kyiv and Moscow.
Victory Day Preparations
The Red Square military parade on May 9 is the centerpiece of the Kremlin's commemorations for Victory Day. Putin is expected to give a speech extolling Moscow's role in the World War II victory, as well as Russia's all-out ongoing invasion of Ukraine, now in its fourth year.
Putin is expected to host 20 world leaders for the Victory Day events, and officials have announced increased security measures in Moscow ahead of the day.
Moscow authorities warned residents against firing off fireworks this week, and also warned of Internet disruptions in the region, possibly as a way to thwart drone or other potential attacks.
With reporting by RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service, Reuters, and AFP
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