After crisis meetings in Paris and London, European leaders are now gathering in Brussels for a "special summit" where the focus will include plans for a huge military boost. The draft conclusions, seen by RFE/RL, mention beefing up air defense, artillery, and "deep precision strike capabilities."
"The European Union will truly turn the page" on defense, a senior EU official said on the eve of the summit. He added there was a "clear willingness" seen "from all" on this.
The March 6 event was first announced back on February 27, in response to fast-moving diplomatic developments. But since then, the pace has got even faster -- with that full-on bust up in the Oval Office, followed by Washington freezing military aid to Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was also due to take part, though it was not immediately clear whether he would do so in person or virtually.
What's The Plan To REARM Europe?
A key item will be the plan outlined by European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen on March 4 called REARM Europe (her capitalization).
It envisages releasing up to 800 billion euros ($844 billion) for EU members states to spend on defense. The summit's draft conclusions, seen by RFE/RL, broadly welcome the plan, setting the stage for more detailed plans to be approved at the next European Council on March 20-21.
Noting the need to "substantially increase defense expenditure," the text calls for "action at the EU level" to boost military capabilities in the face of "threats posed by Russia and Belarus."
EU leaders are also set to welcome new lending rules outlined by the European Investment Bank, freeing up funds to finance projects such as barracks and military hospitals.
Ahead of the summit, there was a broadly warm response to von der Leyen's letter.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said it was an "important first step" while Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis posted on social media: "We must now work out the details."
This reflects the fact that, despite the upbeat rhetoric of European officials, much of the details still remain to be put in place and there are questions about whether the overall price tag is realistic.
Critics have argued that the EU is not making new money available but merely rearranging existing budget elements.
Can Europe Defend Itself Without US Help?
The plan comes as Washington announced a pause on its military assistance to Ukraine, and some have framed it as Europe preparing for a worst-case scenario without a US security umbrella.
Mostly, European politicians have rejected this.
"We should not give up on the US," said Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky on March 4, while British Prime Minister Keir Starmer told reporters at the weekend London conference: "I do not accept that the US is an unreliable ally."
But the fact that they're saying such things at all is a sign of how rattled Europe is by decisions and statements being made in Washington.
And on the eve of the summit, French President Emmanuel Macron raised additional doubts.
"I want to believe the US will stay at our side," he said in a televised addressed to the nation. "But we must be ready if that is not the case."
Can Zelenskyy Repair Relations With Trump?
"The situation in Ukraine, given notably the position of the new US administration, has changed," said the senior EU official. "This is the starting point for the special European Council."
European leaders will address what they can do to fill the gap left by the aid freeze to support Ukraine's armed forces. But the summit was not expected to provide significant new announcements on this.
The main focus remains repairing the rift between US President Donald Trump and Zelenskyy and there was some movement on this in the days before the summit.
In his address to Congress on March 4, Trump said Zelenskyy had written to him following their recent Oval Office showdown, and that the Ukrainian leader was ready to return to the negotiating table.
The next day, his national-security adviser, Mike Waltz, told Fox News that the pause on military aid could be lifted if Ukraine signed a deal giving Washington access to its mineral wealth -- which another US official said was still possible after Zelenskyy expressed regret for the White House clash.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt, meanwhile, said: "I believe what the National Security Council told me in regards to that was...that they are reconsidering the funding for Ukraine, the pause in the funding."
Also on March 5, a spokeswoman for the French government told reporters that President Emmanuel Macron was mulling a joint visit to Washington with Zelenskyy and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, all three of whom were in the US capital last week.
But a Paris official later clarified there were no set plans for this as yet.
The question of Ukraine may also expose the lack of EU unity at the special summit.
After making a TV address to the nation on March 5, Macron had dinner with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban at the Elysee Palace on the eve of the summit.
His aim was to try to get Orban, who has nurtured close ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin, on board with a statement supporting Ukraine.
It's possible Hungary will sign off on the REARM plan but refuse to approve conclusions on Ukraine.
In his televised remarks, Macron said it would be “madness” to ignore the threat Russia has become for Europe and said he is open to discussing the extension of France's nuclear deterrence to Paris's allies on the Continent.
Who Could Send Troops To Ukraine?
As noted, this meeting follows a string of previous crisis gatherings, most recently in London on March 2.
A key takeaway from that meeting was that Britain, France, and other countries would work on a joint peace plan with Ukraine, which they would then take to Washington. There may be some discussion of this on the sidelines in Brussels, but post-Brexit, this is something that is being developed away from EU meetings.
Another key point from recent talks is the plan to form a European military force to deploy to Ukraine as part of a cease-fire or peace deal.
So far, Britain and France have said they're ready to put boots on the ground. Starmer said in London that other countries had also stepped up but declined to name them.
The senior EU official confirmed that member states had expressed willingness but "to go into details is premature." However, he added, "work needs to start and this European Council is a good moment for that work to start."
