French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou appears set to lose a vote of confidence in the National Assembly on September 8, an outcome that would increase instability in one of Europe's largest countries while limiting embattled French President Emmanuel Macron's room to maneuver.
Bayrou, who kicked off the debate in parliament with a speech on September 8, is expected to be followed by leaders from all 10 political groups in the legislature. The outcome of the vote could come by around 7 p.m. Paris time.
The French political scene has been severely fragmented since Macron called a snap election in 2024, while economic clouds have been building over Europe's second largest economy amid rising debt levels.
At the same time, Europe faces uncertainty over the war in Ukraine, a possible trade war with the United States, the rise of China.
If Bayrou loses the vote, don’t expect Macron to call a snap election or even tender his own resignation -- as some in the opposition are hoping -- despite having lost a trio of premiers in the last 12 months.
Instead, the French president is likely to try as soon as this week to nominate a new prime minister, most likely a more left-leaning one, and try to pass a budget with more moderate cuts. Look out for nationwide strikes later in the week that could block much of the country going forward.
And to get away from all this, expect the president to focus even more on foreign policy in his two remaining years in office without changing course too much.
This means that the Elysee will be vocal and active in both Ukraine and the Middle East but don’t expect it to put up too much money to back up the verbal grandstanding.
In many ways this French chaos has been entirely predictable ever since Macron decided to call parliamentary elections in the wake of a disastrous result of his centrist “Ensemble pour la République” (Together for the Republic) in the European Parliament elections in June last year.
The gambit completely backfired and, instead of shoring up political support for his policies, he completely lost control of the assembly.
Since then, little in terms of legislation has been passed as his diminished party together with a small coterie of center-right groupings have formed minority governments at the mercy of either Marine Le Pen’s far-right “National Rally” or a wide-ranging coalition of leftist parties.
Bayrou fell after he attempted to cut some 0.8 percent of gross domestic product from France’s ballooning deficit, which has almost reached a full 6 percent -- double the Eurozone limit.
Markets will be jittery for some time to come but expect Macron to nominate someone from his own camp who is more left leaning, less economically austere, and hence capable of working better with the 66 moderate socialist deputies that allowed last year’s budget to pass.
Alternatively, he could also nominate one of those socialists as prime minister even though the right leaning fractions in his brittle coalition might balk at this.
The party to look out for is National Rally, the biggest group in the chamber. Before Le Pen was keen to avoid a political crisis, but now it appears that she is gunning for early elections in order to trigger a faster ruling from France’s constitutional watchdog, the Conseil Constitutionnel, on the legality of her election ban.
She is currently barred from holding elected office after being convicted of misusing EU funds, a decision her party argues is politically motivated and which she is appealing.
A ruling in Le Pen’s favor by the watchdog would allow her to reenter the race to become president in 2027 -– the ultimate prize for her movement.
As if this wasn’t enough, a popular social media movement, endorsed at various times by both far-left and far-right elements, will attempt to “block” the country by means of violent street protests. It might just fizzle out -– or it can drag on for weeks, plunging the country into a proper economic crisis.
If Macron survives this and manages to get some sort of budget for 2026, he will return to the international stage, as he has done so often in recent times. This will be his safe space for months to come.
Although he might not have too much cash to splash, he will continue to push for a European (preferably French) seat at the table in any future negotiations over Ukraine, shaping Middle East policy by making sure that Paris recognizes Palestine at the upcoming United Nations General Assembly, and working with the E3 (France, Germany, and the UK) on a “snapback” mechanism that could quickly reimpose UN sanctions on Iran later this month.
France will hardly be the most powerful player in any of these arenas but expect the always energetic Macron to be turbocharged on international diplomacy for the reminder of what is expected to be a turbulent presidency.
