Israel's ban on the United Nations agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA), if implemented, would severely hamper aid operations in the war-ravaged Gaza Strip, experts have warned.

The Israeli parliament approved legislation on October 28 that bans UNRWA from operating in Israel. The new law could effectively end the agency's operations in the occupied West Bank and Gaza because Israel controls access to both territories.

Experts say Israel's ban would have dire ramifications for the more than 2 million Palestinians in Gaza who rely heavily on humanitarian assistance and services from UNRWA, the largest aid provider in the territory.

"It's a major blow to any humanitarian efforts trying to save lives in the Gaza Strip," said Anders Fange, a Swedish aid worker who oversaw UNRWA's operations in the West Bank from 2003 to 2007. "No other agency or institution can replace UNRWA."

Israel's devastating yearlong war in Gaza has killed tens of thousands of civilians, Palestinian officials say, and destroyed most of the infrastructure in the enclave. Many people lack shelter, food, and medical care.

Israel has accused UNRWA of colluding with Hamas, the U.S.- and EU-designated Palestinian terrorist group that carried out an unprecedented attack on Israel in October 2023. The attack triggered Israel's invasion of Gaza.

But experts say Israel's move is political and aimed at stripping Palestinians in the Middle East of their refugee status.

'Life Even More Impossible'

Established in 1949, UNRWA is one of the UN's largest operations, with over 30,000 workers. The agency serves around 6 million Palestinians living in Gaza, the West Bank, Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon.

Since Israel invaded Gaza in October 2023, UNRWA has distributed food and provided medical assistance to many of the territory's residents. Hundreds of its schools have been converted into shelters for Palestinians displaced by the war.

Fange said that the "purpose of the Israeli ban on UNRWA now is to make life even more impossible for the Palestinians in Gaza."

Israel has faced international condemnation for targeting hospitals and schools, many of them run by UNRWA, and for killing hundreds of aid workers.

Israel has opposed UNRWA for years. But its opposition to the agency has escalated since Hamas's October 7 attack that killed around 1,200 Israelis.

Since then, Israel has claimed that hundreds of UNRWA staff were members of "terrorist organizations." Some 16 donor countries temporarily suspended funding for the agency.

In August, UNRWA fired nine staff members because of their possible involvement in the Hamas attack.

Khaled Elgindy, director of Palestine and Palestinian-Israeli Affairs at the Middle East Institute think tank in Washington, said UNRWA had been desperate to show that it is "cooperative" and "fairly transparent."

Elgindy said Israel's ban on UNRWA, if implemented, would be "beyond catastrophic" for people in Gaza.

He said the real reason Israel was targeting UNRWA is because the agency is a symbol of Palestinian refugeehood -- something "many Israelis consider to be an existential threat."

Under international law, Palestinian refugees and their descendants have the right to return to their homes in modern-day Israel. But Israel has refused to allow their return. Israel has said Palestinian refugees should be absorbed by their host countries, and claim that UNRWA's services keep Palestinians' hopes of returning to their homes alive.

"Why does Israel want to destroy an institution that is providing lifesaving services and for which there is no alternative in Gaza?" Elgindy asked. "The answer has to do with the extremist nature of this Israeli government."

Many foreign governments and rights organizations have condemned Israel's move to ban UNRWA.

Norway has asked the UN General Assembly to request a ruling from the International Court of Justice on whether Israel has violated international law by preventing the UN from delivering humanitarian aid to Palestinians.

The United States is "deeply troubled" by legislation approved by the Israeli parliament that bans UNRWA, the main United Nations agency bringing assistance to Palestinians in the Gaza Strip and elsewhere in the Middle East, including Israel.

Responding to the move outlawing UNRWA from carrying out any activities in Israel and prohibiting any contact between Israeli authorities and the UN aid group, State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said Washington has made clear its concerns and opposition to the legislation.

"We are deeply troubled by this legislation. It could shutter UNRWA operations in the West Bank, in Gaza, in East Jerusalem," he told a briefing late on October 29.

"It poses risks for millions of Palestinians who rely on UNRWA for essential services, including health care and primary and secondary education," Miller added, noting UNRWA's "critical role in providing services to Palestinians."

The laws were approved by the Knesset, Israel's parliament, on October 28, and take effect in 90 days.

Palestinians in the Gaza Strip have been hard hit by the outbreak of war between Israel and Iran-backed Hamas, which has been designated as a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union.

The war was triggered when Hamas fighters crossed into Israel on October 7, 2023, and killed some 1,200 people. They also took around 251 hostages back to the Gaza Strip.

Israeli retaliation has devastated Gaza and killed more than 40,000 people, according to Hamas-led Palestinian authorities. UNRWA has warned several times that Gaza is on the brink of a humanitarian crisis because of the conflict.

Israeli lawmakers approved the laws banning UNRWA, saying the agency has been infiltrated by Hamas and that some UNRWA employees were involved in the October 7 attacks.

The UN said in August that nine staff working for UNRWA were being fired because they may have been involved in the October 7 attacks against Israel.

The laws are likely to make relief work by UNRWA virtually impossible in the Gaza Strip and the Israeli-occupied West Bank.

Hezbollah has elected its deputy secretary-general, Naim Qassem, to succeed slain leader Hassan Nasrallah, the group announced on October 29.

Hezbollah is an armed group and political party that controls much of southern Lebanon and which is designated a terrorist organization by the United States, although the European Union has only blacklisted its military wing, not its political party.

SEE ALSO:

Israel Is Trying To 'Weaken' Hezbollah As a Political And Economic Force

"Hezbollah's (governing) Shura Council agreed to elect...Sheikh Naim Qassem as secretary-general of the party," the Iran-backed group said in a statement, more than a month after Nasrallah's killing.

"We pledge to God and the spirit of our highest and most precious martyr, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, the martyrs, the fighters of the Islamic resistance, and our steadfast, patient and loyal people, to work together to achieve Hezbollah's principles and the goals, and to keep the flame of resistance alight and its banner raised until victory is achieved," the statement said.

In recent weeks, Israel has been engaged in a campaign of air strikes and a ground invasion of southern Lebanon that has targeted Hezbollah's leadership and military capabilities in response to numerous rocket and missile attacks by the group. Those attacks have intensified since the Israeli Army invaded the Gaza Strip following a terrorist attack by its Hamas rulers that killed more than 1,200 Israelis and took some 250 hostages.

Nasrallah died last month in an Israeli air strike. His expected successor, Hashem Safieddine, was also killed by the Israelis a week later.

Qassem, born in Beirut in 1953 into a family originally from the south near the border with Israel, has been Hezbollah's deputy-secretary general since 1991, when he was nominated as second-in-command to Abbas al-Musawi, the group's leader who himself was killed in an Israeli strike in 1992.

Qassem kept his position when Nasrallah took over.

After Nasrallah largely disappeared from public view in the aftermath of Hezbollah's 2006 war with Israel, Qassem remained the most visible senior figure of the group and has often acted as a spokesman for Hezbollah.

Qassem has been involved in organizing Hezbollah's election campaigns for Lebanon's parliament since the group first participated in elections in 1992.

With reporting by Reuters and dpa

Israel’s wars in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon have strained its relations with Europe, its traditional ally.

European countries have criticized Israel for its devastating yearlong war in the Palestinian enclave and its destructive aerial bombardment and ground invasion of Lebanon.

There have been growing calls for an arms embargo on Israel, sanctions on far-right members of the Israeli government, and requests to review the European Union’s trade deal with Israel.

Pier Camillo Falasca, senior fellow at the Euro-Gulf Information Centre think tank in Rome, described it as the “worst state of relations” between Israel and Europe.

Growing Tensions

In May, Spain, Ireland, and Norway officially recognized a Palestinian state, drawing a sharp rebuke from Israel. They joined eight other countries in the 27-member bloc that already recognize Palestine.

The largely symbolic move was aimed at focusing attention on negotiating an end to the conflict between Israel and the U.S.- and EU-designated Palestinian terrorist group Hamas.

Earlier this month, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni revealed that the country had imposed an arms embargo on Israel since its invasion of Gaza in October 2023. Italy is the third-largest arms supplier to Israel.

Israel invaded Gaza weeks after Hamas carried out an unprecedented attack that killed around 1,200 Israelis.

French President Emmanuel Macron earlier this month called for a halt on arms deliveries to Israel. Paris has imposed restrictions on the export of some arms and ammunition to Israel.

For the first time, the EU in July sanctioned several Israeli settlers for “serious and systematic human rights abuses” against Palestinians in the occupied West Bank and for blocking humanitarian aid to Gaza.

Meanwhile, some European leaders have called for the EU to review its Association Agreement with Israel, arguing that Israel is violating the trade deal’s human rights clause in Gaza.

Britain, which is not an EU member, said it is considering sanctioning some far-right Israeli ministers.

'Absolutely Irrational'

Falasca said the staggering death toll from Israel’s war in Gaza -- where over 42,000 people, mostly civilians, have been killed, according to Palestinian officials -- has changed European public opinion.

Many in the continent, he said, see Israel’s war as “disproportionate and absolutely irrational.”

Many Europeans, he said, think that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could have adopted a “more humanitarian, more rational strategy to fight Hamas without destroying the entire territory of Gaza,” most of which is in ruins.

Falasca said the tipping point for many European countries was Israel firing on and injuring members of the UN peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon. France, Italy, Ireland, and Spain contribute troops to the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL).

On October 19, 16 EU defense ministers called for exerting “maximum political and diplomatic pressure on Israel” to prevent further attacks.

Israel's weeks-long ground invasion and aerial bombardment targeting Hezbollah, an armed group and political party that controls much of southern Lebanon, has killed over 2,500 people, mostly civilians, and displaced over 1.2 million.

Nimrod Goren, senior fellow for Israeli affairs at the Middle East Institute think tank in Washington, said widespread street protests in Europe and calls for boycotting Israel in academic and cultural spheres have created the impression that “something is shifting.”

But “on the governmental level, the impact is less than you see in the unofficial spaces,” he said.

Cohen said that EU members are deeply divided over the issue of revoking or limiting its free-trade deal with Israel. And he said powerful European nations such as Germany still strongly support Israel.

Falasca said the conflicts and rising tensions in the Middle East have directly impacted Europe, including by disrupting international shipping and increasing oil prices.

“The EU and European governments are realizing that they must be more proactive in the Middle East compared to our past,” Falasca said.

Israel on October 26 struck military targets deep inside Iranian territory, but the extent of its promised attack was more calibrated than many feared.

The region has been on edge since October 1, after Israel promised that Iran "will pay" for launching its largest-ever direct attack -- almost 200 ballistic missiles in all -- on its archfoe.

The main concern was whether Israel would strike Iranian nuclear facilities or energy infrastructure, each carrying its own risks.

Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, told RFE/RL that if the scale and scope of Israel's attack remained restricted, "an off-ramp has been provided for both sides to step back from the brink."

Since the early hours of October 26, when Iranian state television acknowledged loud explosions had been heard around Tehran, news outlets and Telegram accounts that support the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) sought to downplay the significance of the attack.

Some pro-IRGC channels on Telegram went as far as alleging that Israeli media were critical of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for launching a "disappointing" attack on Iran.

Why The Measured Response?

Israel had been under pressure for weeks from its ally the United States and Persian Gulf Arab states to formulate its response in a way that would not plunge the region into an all-out war.

In a sign of Washington's diplomatic efforts, the Pentagon moved quickly after reports of the attack to say the United States was made aware of Israel's plans beforehand, but that there was no U.S. involvement in the military move.

"U.S. pressure has had an impact and Israel may have preferred to avoid dragging Washington into an escalation the U.S. does not want, particularly ahead of the [U.S. presidential] elections," said Michael Horowitz, head of intelligence at the Bahrain-based Le Beck International consultancy.

Gulf states were worried that an attack on Iran's energy infrastructure would have a blowback on their own oil and gas facilities, while the wider international community was concerned that hitting Iran's nuclear facilities would compel Iran to develop a bomb.

While measured, the Israeli attack still marked the largest aerial strike on Iran since the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s and carried a "clear message," Horowitz said.

"Israel can operate deep within Iran, relatively freely. This freedom of operation may have further expanded after last night, as Israel likely took out some of Iran's air defenses," he said.

The Iranian Army said two soldiers were killed while "repelling" the Israeli attack, suggesting that they were involved in air-defense operations. Experts say their deaths are unlikely to have much of an impact on whether and how Iran responds to Israel.

"I don't think this specific incident is going to prompt Iran in a significant way, because there has been no indication suggesting that causing casualties was Israel's aim," said Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

Some reports say Israel telegraphed its attack to Iran, which Azizi said indicated that Israel wanted the conflict "to at least remain within certain boundaries."

The extent of the damage caused by the attack is unclear and satellite imagery will likely provide a clearer picture of the targets and scale of damage. Unless the damage is significant, experts say, Iran will either forego a response or opt for a retaliation on the lower end of the spectrum, which could involve attacks on Israel by its proxies.

Eroded Deterrence

After Iran launched a barrage of drones and missiles at Israel in April, it said it had established a "new equation" whereby every Israeli action against Iran would be met with a response.

The attack, which came in response to the suspected Israeli bombing of Iran's embassy compound in Damascus, Syria, was meant to reestablish Iran's deterrence against its archrival.

Horowitz says Israel does not appear deterred and that Iran's deterrence largely relied on its regional allies and proxies, particularly on Hezbollah, the Lebanese political party and armed group that controls much of southern Lebanon.

Israel has been carrying out a weekslong aerial bombardment and ground invasion of Lebanon targeting the leadership and military capabilities of Hezbollah, which has been designated as a terrorist entity by the U.S. but the EU has blacklisted only its military wing.

SEE ALSO:

Israel Is Trying To 'Weaken' Hezbollah As a Political And Economic Force

Horowitz said Iran's deterrence "has now been eroded," which he argued will have unpredictable long-term consequences.

"The main problem, in my opinion, is that there is in fact no 'equation' -- we're in uncharted territory, which makes it very dangerous," he added.

U.S. President Joe Biden expressed hope Israeli air strikes on Iran would bring an end to the current chapter of escalation in the Middle East, even as Hezbollah fired dozens of projectiles into northern Israel.

Israel struck Iran overnight in what it called a "targeted and precise" attack in retaliation for Iranian attacks on Israel earlier this month, the military said. Four Iranian soldiers were killed in the bombing, Tehran said.

Iran has been on edge for several weeks, with many government officials and observers around the globe saying they expected Israel to hit back. Tehran said its strikes were retaliation for an earlier attack by Israel.

The Biden administration had been concerned that Israel might target Iranian oil facilities or its nuclear facilities.

Iran's economy is heavily dependent on oil exports but a strike on energy facilities could have triggered a spike in global oil prices ahead of the U.S. election, where inflation is a key issue.

"Looks like they didn't hit anything but military targets," Biden told reporters on October 26, adding that Israel had informed him prior to the strikes. "I hope this is the end."

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Hezbollah, the Lebanon-based militant group backed by Iran, condemned the attack and fired more than 200 projectiles at Israel.

Israel said fragments from 30 rockets damaged buildings and cars in one northern town but that no one was killed.

Missile Facilities Targeted

The Israeli military said it targeted manufacturing facilities making missiles used to attack Israel over the last year.

Israeli warplanes also hit "surface-to-air missile arrays and additional Iranian aerial capabilities, that were intended to restrict Israel's aerial freedom of operation in Iran."

Earlier, the IDF said the attack was launched "in response to months of continuous attacks from the regime in Iran against the state of Israel."

"The regime in Iran and its proxies in the region have been relentlessly attacking Israel since October 7 on several fronts, including direct attacks from Iranian soil," it added.

SEE ALSO:

Israel Is Trying To 'Weaken' Hezbollah As a Political And Economic Force

Iran said that four of its soldiers had been killed in the Israeli attack, and confirmed that military sites were targeted in the region surrounding the capital, Tehran, and other parts of the country. It said the strikes caused "limited damage."

The semiofficial news agency Tasnim reported that Iran was resuming flights as normal after a brief interruption.

Iran’s currency and financial markets posted gains on October 26 after the government said the strikes caused limited damage. They had declined over the previous two weeks amid concerns over escalation.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer called on Iran not to respond to the Israeli strikes.

"On the question of the strikes, I think we need to be really clear that Israel does have the right to defend itself, but we are urging -- and have been urging all sides -- to show restraint. And that is why I am very clear today: Iran should not be responding to this," Starmer said in Samoa, where he is attending a Commonwealth summit.

White House National Security Council spokesman Sean Savett said Washington was advised of the strikes ahead of time, calling them "an exercise of self-defense and in response to Iran's ballistic-missile attack against Israel on October 1."

The Pentagon, meanwhile, said Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke with his Israeli counterpart, Yoav Gallant, about the strikes.

Austin reiterated that the United States was committed to Israel's security.

Israel has a right to defend itself, though Washington was determined to prevent the conflict from expanding, Pentagon press secretary Pat Ryder said in a statement.

Around the same time, an Israeli air strike targeted some military sites in Syria's central and southern parts, according to the Syrian state SANA news agency.

Concerns have been growing that Iran and the United States would be drawn into a regional war amid Israel's intensifying assault in Lebanon on Hezbollah -- a militant group and political party that controls much of southern Lebanon.

The air strikes on Beirut and southern Lebanon have been accompanied by a ground operation.

Hezbollah -- designated as a terrorist organization by the United States, while the European Union blacklists its armed wing but not its political party -- has supported another Iran-backed group, Hamas, which has been the target of a withering assault by Israel over the past year.

Hamas, which has been designated as a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union, triggered the current war when its fighters crossed into Israel on October 7, 2023, and killed some 1,200 people. They also took around 251 hostages back to the Gaza Strip.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has warned of an urgent need to reach a diplomatic resolution to the war in Gaza and Lebanon as the UN refugee agency raised concerns over Israeli air strikes, saying they endangered those fleeing the war.

Speaking before a meeting in London with Arab leaders on October 25, Blinken stressed the need to end the conflict on a day when Israeli strikes killed 38 people in Gaza and three journalists in Lebanon.

"We have a sense of real urgency in getting to a diplomatic resolution and the full implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, such that there can be real security along the border between Israel and Lebanon," Blinken said, referring to a resolution in place following the last major Israel-Hezbollah war in 2006.

Israel has pledged to neutralize Iran-backed Hamas, which has been designated a terrorist organization by the United States the European Union, since last October when Hamas militants crossed into Israel and killed some 1,200 people and took 240 hostages.

The conflict has since spread to Lebanon, where fighters from Hezbollah, a militant group and political party that controls much of southern Lebanon, have launched almost daily attacks on Israel in support of Hamas, another Tehran-backed group.

Lebanese authorites say more than 2,500 people have been killed in the fighting in the country, while more than 1.2 million have been displaced, sparking a humanitarian crisis.

Israel's weekslong aerial bombardment and ground invasion of Lebanon began by targeting Hezbollah's leadership and military capabilities.

But it has recently expanded its targets to civilian infrastructure -- including banks -- affiliated with Hezbollah, which is designated as a terrorist organization by the United States, while the European Union blacklists its armed wing but not its political party.

Blinken said on October 24 that Israel had accomplished its objective of "effectively dismantling" Hamas as he pushed the two sides to renew negotiations to reach a truce.

Meanwhile, Israeli air strikes pounded southern Lebanon, with the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) saying targets near the border with Syria included areas that the IDF claims the group uses to smuggle weapons into Lebanon.

Rula Amin, the spokeswoman for the United Nations refugee agency (UNHCR), said the strikes were threatening the lives of many not involved in the conflict, given that some 430,000 people have crossed to Syria since the war started.

"The attacks on the border crossings are a major concern," Amin said.

"They are blocking the path to safety for people fleeing conflict."

Israel's weekslong aerial bombardment and ground invasion of Lebanon has targeted the leadership and military capabilities of Hezbollah.

Now, Israel has expanded its targets and hit civilian infrastructure, including banks, affiliated with Hezbollah, an armed group and political party that controls much of southern Lebanon.

Experts say Israel's aim is to erode Hezbollah not just as a military power but also a political and economic force in Lebanon. Hezbollah is a U.S.-designated a terrorist organization, although the EU has only blacklisted its military wing.

"Beyond the degradation of the military capabilities, personnel, and armaments, there is certainly an Israeli attempt to weaken Hezbollah politically, socially, and financially," says Eran Etzion, a former Israeli diplomat and ex-deputy head of Israel's National Security Council.

SEE ALSO:

For Wartime Russia, Rewards, Risks, And Limits In The Volatile Middle East

On October 21, Israeli air strikes targeted the branches of the Al-Qard Al-Hassan Association (AQAH), which is affiliated with Hezbollah.

The bank offers financial services to civilians in areas where Hezbollah has strong support. But Israel and the United States accuse it of serving as a front for the group to fund its military activities.

Israel's targeting of the AQAH branches "marks an expansion in terms of the types of targets that Israel is hitting," says Etzion. But it does not mean Israel is attempting to completely dismantle Hezbollah, he adds.

Experts say destroying Hezbollah is not Israel's objective, not least because that is an unrealistic goal. Instead, they said, Israel is trying to degrade its military capabilities and political base.

"Hezbollah is the predominant political power in Lebanon, and if it is militarily significantly weakened, that would also reduce its political power," says Joost Hiltermann, director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at the Belgium-based International Crisis Group.

Under Lebanon's sectarian political system, the president is a Christian, the prime minister is a Sunni Muslim, and the speaker of parliament is a Shi'ite Muslim.

Hezbollah, whose power base is among Shi'a, has representatives at the ministerial and parliamentary levels. Its alliance with non-Shi'ite parties also gives it further political clout.

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Hiltermann questioned whether Israel had the ability to effect political change in Lebanon. Iran-backed Hezbollah is more powerful than even the Lebanese Army, and smaller political factions in Lebanon do not have the military force or political clout to push it out completely, he said.

After invading Lebanon in 1982, Israel attempted and failed to reshape Lebanon's political scene by bringing a pro-Israeli Christian party to power.

"There is a recognition that Israel's abilities in that particular sphere are limited," says Etzion.

For Netanyahu, It's Personal

Observers say Israel's civilian and military leaders are split over how to approach the ongoing conflict with Hezbollah.

One camp wants to wind down the war and secure a political settlement based on UN Security Council Resolution 1701. That would include Hezbollah fighters retreating from near the Israeli border and UN peacekeeping forces ensuring security along the border.

The other camp, which includes Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is looking to expand the conflict into a "full-fledged regional war" involving both Iran and the United States, Etzion says.

Israel has vowed to strike Iran in retaliation for Tehran's massive missile attack on October 1. Many worry that an Israeli attack will result in an escalating cycle of tit-for-tat strikes that will spiral into a war engulfing the entire region.

Netanyahu's primary goal "is to sustain his grip on power and to make sure he's not ousted," Etzion says. "He has a clear political, personal, and criminal interest in perpetuating the war."

Netanyahu's critics blame him for the security lapses that resulted in the October 7 attack by U.S.- and EU-designated Palestinian terrorist group Hamas.

Netanyahu is also facing serious corruption charges, and his detractors say the prime minister is trying to indefinitely postpone his own trial.

A group of governments and international organizations from around the world raised $1 billion to aid the humanitarian crisis in Lebanon as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken continued his tour of the Middle East saying Washington was open to "different options" to ending the war in the Gaza Strip, which has spilled over into neighboring Lebanon.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said $800 million had been raised at the conference in Paris on October 24 to help the hundreds of thousands of people in Lebanon displaced by fighting between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah, a militant group and political party that controls much of southern Lebanon.

Another $200 million was pledged at the conference to help the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), a national-security force that aids in implementing UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which calls for southern Lebanon to be free of any troops or weapons other than those of the Lebanese state.

"The storm we are currently witnessing is unlike any other, because it carries the seeds of total destruction," Lebanon's caretaker prime minister, Najib Mikati, said at the donor conference.

SEE ALSO:

For Wartime Russia, Rewards, Risks, And Limits In The Volatile Middle East

The current war between Israel and the Iran-backed groups Hezbollah and Hamas -- which have been designated as terrorist organizations by the United States -- was triggered after Hamas militants made an incursion into Israel on October 7, 2023, killing some 1,200 people. They also took some 240 people back to Gaza as hostages.

Israel has since launched a withering offensive that, according to the Hamas-led Heath Ministry in Gaza, has seen around 43,000 people killed while displacing virtually all of Gaza's 2.3 million people.

The European Union has also designated Hamas as a terrorist organization, and while it blacklists Hezbollah's armed wing, it does not give its political party the same designation. Hezbollah’s political party has seats in the Lebanese parliament.

Many Western officials have said the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar earlier this month opened room for reviving peace talks.

Blinken, in Qatar on October 24, said after talks with officials from Egypt and Qatar that the focus was on "options to capitalize on this moment and next steps to move the process forward."

"Going back to the negotiations on cease-fire and the hostages, one of the things we're doing is looking at whether there are different options that we can pursue to get us to a conclusion, to get us to a result," Blinken said.

The talks in Doha are scheduled to include Israeli officials on October 25, while Qatari officials have met with officials in Hamas' political office in the Qatari capital in recent days.

On October 16, Russian air strikes hit a furniture workshop, a sawmill, and an olive press in Syria's Idlib Province, killing 10 civilians, including a child, according to the U.K.-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights and the White Helmets civil defense force.

Two days later, Russian President Vladimir Putin was playing the Middle East peacemaker at a meeting with journalists from countries in the BRICS grouping of nations ahead of a summit this week, saying Moscow is ready to do whatever it can to end what he called the "terrible strikes on civilian targets in the Gaza Strip" and offering Moscow's services as a mediator.

"I very much hope that an escalation of this conflict can be avoided," Putin said.

While deadly Russian bombings in Syria contradict that claim, the desire to avoid a wider war may be genuine: The Kremlin is comfortable with the current level of violence in the Middle East because it can take advantage of the mayhem to further its own interests in the region, in Ukraine, and worldwide, analysts say -- but Moscow is wary of a more massive conflagration.

"War, disorder, and chaotic U.S. policy have made it easier for Russia to maneuver" in the Middle East, Thanassis Cambanis, director of Century International, a branch of The Century Foundation, a U.S.-based think tank, said in an e-mailed comment to RFE/RL.

There are several reasons why the current level of bloodshed and volatility in the Middle East suits Moscow.

One is what Hanna Notte, a Berlin-based expert on Russian foreign policy, calls the "distraction dividend." The crisis draws the world's attention away from Ukraine, where Moscow's forces are killing civilians almost daily in a brutal invasion that is headed for a fourth year with no end in sight.

It forces Washington and its allies to expend cash, weapons, and resources in the Middle East even as they struggle to keep Russia in check in a war in Europe whose result will have major consequences for the West.

In addition to that practical benefit, there's a propaganda plus that may be even more important for Putin, who casts the war in Ukraine as part of a civilizational standoff with the United States and the European Union and is seeking to get as much of the world as possible close to Russia's side as he can.

'A Growing Tilt'

Since Putin launched the full-scale invasion of its neighbor in February 2022, "confrontation with the West over Ukraine has become the defining logic driving Russian policy" in the Middle East, Notte, a senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told RFE/RL.

LISTEN: As it focuses on its war against Ukraine, Russia is also seeking to leverage violence in the Middle East to improve its global standing and condemn the West.

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Against that backdrop, Israel's attacks in Gaza and Lebanon are a rich vein for Moscow to mine as it courts countries in the Global South and around the world, portrays the violence in the Middle East as the product of misguided and destructive policies of the West, and of the United States in particular.

For the Kremlin, using the Middle East crisis and the war in Gaza as ammunition against Washington is a "no-brainer," said Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Washington-based Middle East Institute.

It "really does hurt the U.S., not just in…the Middle East but internationally, including in the United States," Vatanka told RFE/RL.

At the same time, however, Russia's leverage in the Middle East has limits. As it stands, Russia can punch above its weight in the region, claiming a substantial role without having to do very much, but the eruption of a wider war could lay those weaknesses bare.

The war against Ukraine has fueled Moscow's "growing tilt towards the anti-Western forces in the region," Notte said.

That means Iran, which provides Russia with weapons and helps it skirt sanctions, and what Tehran calls the "Axis of Resistance": groups including Hamas, the U.S.- and EU-designated Palestinian terrorist group; Hezbollah in Lebanon, which is also designated as a terrorist organization by the United States, while the EU blacklists its armed wing; and the Huthi rebels in Yemen.

Limited Leverage

But Russia is still engaged in a balancing act in the Middle East: It does not want to alienate Israel or the Persian Gulf states too much. On the flip side, it has little or no chance of turning countries in the region against the United States, even if they can cooperate in some areas.

Russia and Iran have "very different systems, very different world views" and are united mainly by anti-Americanism, Vatanka said.

"Can Russia take that model and expand it to…other countries in the region, like Turkey? The answer is no," he said. "Just because a country joins the [Shanghai Cooperation Organization] or BRICS doesn't mean it's willing to jump teams, if you will," and abandon the United States.

Furthermore, despite warm words and treaties -- like the "comprehensive strategic partnership" pact that Russia is expected to sign soon with Iran -- Moscow's embrace of Tehran and its allies goes only as far as the Kremlin believes its own interests will take it, at least for now.

"The Russians…don't want to empower the 'Axis of Resistance.' They want to use the 'Axis of Resistance,'" he said.

For the time being, Vatanka said, Putin wants to preserve the status quo in the region, as precarious and bloody as it may be.

Others agree.

'A Certain Impotence'

"The amount of tension and the developments have so far not threatened Russian interests or Russian positions in the region," Notte said. "But we could sort of be stepping over a tipping point, especially if there are Israeli strikes against Iran, or a significant deterioration in Syria, where that balance could shift and…the risks start outweighing some of the benefits."

Because the war in Ukraine is "its priority and demands so much bandwidth from Russia," Moscow "has not wanted to see a situation in Syria where there's significantly enhanced instability or Russia would need to…step up its efforts there," she said.

As for Iran, an Israeli attack could put its defense industry under strain, she said, "something that Russia probably does not want to see, given this enhanced partnership that they have with the Iranians."

"Another thing that would happen if the Israelis were to attack Iran proper is that a certain Russian impotence would potentially be exposed, because I don't see that Russia could get involved in the defense of Iran in the case of this kind of escalation and Israeli retaliation," Notte said. "Russia would probably have to sit on the sidelines, which could…harm Russia's reputation."

Moscow will continue to try to maintain balance, but "the more the ‘Axis of Resistance' will come under pressure in the region, the more we might also see Russia giving certain assistance to Iranian partners like the Huthis, like Hezbollah," she said. "Russia might be more forward-leaning."

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has called on Israel and the Iran-backed groups it is fighting in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon to call a truce after the Israeli military said it had killed a top official for Hezbollah, a militant group and political party that controls much of southern Lebanon, who had been widely expected to be the group’s next leader.

"Now is the time to turn those successes into an enduring strategic success," Blinken told reporters as he prepared to leave Jordan on October 23 for Saudi Arabia on a tour of the region for talks on how to bring the current fighting to an end.

Late on October 22, Israel said Hashem Safieddine, a senior figure inside Hezbollah, was killed in an air strike on the Lebanese capital on October 3, ending weeks of speculation as to whether the man expected to take over the group was alive. The previous Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, was killed in Israeli air strikes in Beirut on September 27.

Safieddine headed Hezbollah's executive branch, which oversees the group's political affairs. He was also a member of the decision-making Shura Council as well as the Jihad Council, which runs the group's military operations.

The United States designated Safieddine a terrorist in 2017. Hezbollah is considered a terrorist organization by Washington, although the European Union has only blacklisted its armed wing. Hezbollah’s political party has seats in the Lebanese parliament.

The current war between Israel and the Iran-backed groups Hezbollah and Hamas -- which has been designated as a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union -- was triggered after Hamas militants made an incursion into Israel on October 7, 2023, killing some 1,200 people. They also took some 240 people back to Gaza as hostages.

Israel has since launched a withering offensive that, according to the Hamas-led Heath Ministry in Gaza, has seen almost 43,000 people killed while displacing virtually all of Gaza's 2.3 million people.

Israeli forces have killed many senior figures from Hezbollah and Hamas, including the Palestinian militant group's leader, Yahya Sinwar, who was suspected of being the mastermind behind the October 7 attacks.

Sinwar was killed last week by the Israeli Defense Forces, prompting senior officials from the United States and other Israeli allies to seize on what they see as an opportunity for a new scenario for the region.

Israel has also been under pressure from many allies, including the United States, for the rising number of civilian casualties in Gaza as a result of the war, and accusations that it has been hindering aid supplies to the territory, where hundreds of thousands are living in a growing humanitarian crisis.

SEE ALSO:

Palestinians Count The Toll Of Israel's Devastating War In Gaza

"The focus needs to be on getting the hostages home, ending this war and having a clear plan for what follows," Blinken said on October 23.

Neither side, however, appears prepared, at least publicly, to seize on the so-called opportunity Blinken and others say is there for the taking.

Just hours before Blinken spoke, the Israeli military leveled a suburban Beirut building that it said housed Hezbollah facilities.

The strikes and a later one that sent thick columns of flames shooting into the night sky came shortly after an Israeli military spokesman issued evacuation warnings for the neighborhood.

Another strike came with no warning hitting the nearby office of a pro-Iran broadcaster, the station said. It said the office had been empty since the conflict began. Lebanon's Health Ministry said one person was killed and five others, including a child, were wounded.

Iran-backed Hezbollah said in a statement late on October 23 that it had escalated its attacks on Israel, using "precision missiles" for the first time, and launched new types of drones on Israeli targets.

It later said it had targeted an Israeli military factory on the outskirts of Tel Aviv.

The Israeli military said four projectiles were identified as having been fired from Lebanon. Two were intercepted and one fell in an open area. There was no immediate indication of any defense facility around Tel Aviv having been hit.

Meanwhile, Hamas continues to refuse to release the remaining hostages it holds unless Israel stops its attacks in Gaza.

With reporting by Reuters

Philippe Lazzarini, the head of the UN agency giving aid to Palestinians, accused Israel on October 21 of denying aid to northern parts of the Gaza Strip and called for a cease-fire as a step "to putting an end to this endless nightmare." "The Israeli Authorities continue to deny humanitarian missions to reach the north with critical supplies including medicine and food for people under siege," he wrote in a post on X. Lazzarini called for aid organizations to be allowed access to the northern Gaza Strip, including the group he heads, the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA). Gaza has been ravaged by a war triggered by the Iran-backed Hamas's October 7, 2023 incursion into Israel, which saw the militant group that has been designated a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union kill some 1,200 people and take around 240 hostages. Israel has since launched a withering war against Hamas, vowing to cripple it.

The United States will soon begin a probe of the leak of highly classified intelligence documents describing Israel's preparations for a retaliatory strike on Iran, the speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives said on October 20.

The documents, dated October 15 and 16, were initially posted on the Telegram messaging app on October 19.

They carry "top secret" labels and have markings indicating they were to be seen only by the United States and other members of the so-called Five Eyes allied nations of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and Britain, according to CNN.

SEE ALSO:

G7 Warns Iran To End Support For Hamas, Hezbollah

The documents describe apparent Israeli military preparations for a strike against Iran.

One of the documents state the material was produced by the U.S. National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA).

House Speaker Mike Johnson (Republican-Louisiana) confirmed in an interview with CNN that an investigation is "under way and I'll get a briefing on that in a couple of hours."

The Pentagon said it was looking into the reports. The NGA did not immediately comment.

The New York Times (NYT) reported that U.S. officials "are trying to determine the source of the leak, which describes military drills and weapons placement, and how damaging it might be."

SEE ALSO:

As Middle East Crisis Escalates, Hopes For Diplomatic Solution Dim

"The documents, which offer interpretations of satellite imagery, provide insight into a potential strike by Israel on Iran in the coming days," the NYT report said.

Many government officials and observers around the globe have said they expect Israel to strike Iran in retaliation for an Iranian rocket attack earlier this month -- which Tehran said was in itself retaliation for an earlier attack by Israel.

Officials told the NYT that the documents are not a comprehensive assessment of what Washington knows about Israeli plans and that they only represent what analysts looking at satellite imagery could determine.

With reporting by CNN, Reuters, and The New York Times

The world’s leading industrial nations warned Iran to stop supporting the Hamas and Hezbollah militant groups and other nonstate actors in the Middle East and to cease actions that are helping to destabilize the region, while Washington also urged Israel to scale back its attacks near Beirut amid ongoing fears of a potential all-out war.

The Group of Seven (G7) developed economies, in a joint statement on October 19, said they "call on Iran to refrain from providing support to Hamas, Hezbollah, Huthis, and other nonstate actors, and taking further actions that could destabilize the region and trigger an uncontrolled process of escalation."

Gaza-based Hamas is designated as a terrorist organization by the United States and European Union. Hezbollah has also been designated terror group by the United States, while the EU blacklists its armed wing but not its political unit, which has members in the Lebanese parliament.

Hamas, Lebanon-based Hezbollah, and the Huthi rebels in Yemen -- also deemed a terrorist organization by the United States -- are considered Iranian proxy organizations in the Middle East.

Following its summit in Italy, the G7 -- the United States, Italy, Canada, Britain, France, and Japan -- said it remains "united in supporting the need for an immediate cease-fire in Gaza," the release of all hostages, and a "significant and sustained increase" in the flow of humanitarian aid to Gaza.

The statement also said the G7 is troubled by the latest events in Lebanon and "the risk of further escalation."

It expressed concerns over "all threats" to the security of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), which has complained of dangers to its staff amid the Israeli military's air and ground operations in southern Lebanon near the Israeli border.

Separately, U.S. defense chief Lloyd Austin said Washington would "like to see" Israel scale back some of its attacks in and around Beirut.

"The number of civilian causalities have been far too high. We would like to see Israel scale back some of the strikes in and around Beirut and we would like to see a transition to negotiations that would allow civilians on both sides to return to their homes," he said following the G7 summit in Naples.

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris on October 19 said the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar presented an opportunity for a cease-fire in the Middle East.

"This creates an opening that I believe we must take full advantage of to dedicate ourselves to ending this war and bringing the hostages home," Harris told reporters.

"As it relates to the issues in the Middle East and in particular in that region, it has never been easy. But that doesn't mean we give up. It's always going to be difficult."

The statements come after Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Hamas "will remain alive" despite the death of Sinwar.

Khamenei said in a statement on October 19 that Sinwar's "loss is undoubtedly painful for the Axis of Resistance," referring to a self-described network of several Iran-backed groups in the Middle East, including Hamas.

"But this front did not cease advancing with the martyrdom of prominent figures," Khamenei added.

Sinwar -- the architect of the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel that triggered the war in Gaza -- was killed by Israeli forces on October 16. His death was confirmed by a top Hamas political official the following day.

The situation remains tense in Gaza, where at least 50 people including children were killed in Israeli air strikes on October 19, Palestinian health officials said.

At least 10 of them were killed in central Gaza when a house was hit in the town of Zawayda, according to the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital, where the casualties were taken.

Another attack killed 11 people, all from the same family, in the Maghazi refugee camp, according to the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital in Deir al-Balah.

The Israeli government said that a drone was launched toward the house of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the coastal town of Caesarea on October 19, with no casualties. Neither Netanyahu nor his wife were home, his office said in a statement.

Netanyahu later said that the "agents of Iran who attempted to assassinate" him and his wife "made a bitter mistake."

The drone strike came in the morning as sirens wailed in Israel, warning of incoming fire from Lebanon.

In Lebanon, authorities said two people were killed in an Israeli strike on October 19 in Jounieh, north of Beirut.

Jounieh, a Christian-majority town, had not been hit since Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah started exchanging cross-border fire over the Gaza war last year.

Israel intensified its bombardment of Lebanon on September 23 and later in the month sent ground troops across the Lebanese border.

The strikes have reached areas outside of traditional strongholds of Hezbollah, which is designated as a terrorist organization by the United States, while the European Union blacklists its armed wing but not its political party.

Hezbollah's political wing has seats in the Lebanese parliament and the militants control the southern part of the country that borders Israel.

Elsewhere, pro-Iranian groups in Iraq overran offices of Saudi broadcaster MBC after it aired a report referring to commanders of Tehran-linked militant groups as "terrorists."

More than 400 people "wrecked the electronic equipment, the computers, and set fire to a part of the building," an Iraqi Interior Ministry source told AFP.

The source said the fire had been put out and that police had dispersed the crowd.

With reporting by AP, AFP, and Reuters

Israel's two-front war in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon, as well as the threat of escalation with Iran, have put the Middle East crisis on boil.

But despite the risk of all-out war involving regional powers Israel and Iran, experts say there is little appetite for a diplomatic solution.

This is largely because the main obstacles to peace are immovable without incentive and persuasion, and the only actors capable of changing the situation are either reluctant to act or are in a position to benefit from escalation, analysts say.

"There are diplomatic solutions to this crisis, but they have to center on the de-occupation of Palestine, since that is the root cause of the conflict," said Trita Parsi, co-founder of the Washington-based Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.

The main obstacle to such an outcome, Parsi said, "is Washington's refusal to sincerely push Israel to end its occupation." If the United States "fundamentally changes its approach, these diplomatic solutions will become politically viable."

The United States is a key ally of Israel, a major recipient of U.S. arms and aid. But Israel has charted its own course, despite some U.S. pressure, and it is unclear if other players would scale down their military activities in response to Israeli de-escalation.

Expanding War

Israel is currently involved in a two-front war against Iran-backed armed groups -- the U.S.-designated terrorist organizations Hamas in the Gaza Strip and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Israel launched its war in Gaza a year ago in retaliation for Hamas's deadly assault on its territory. More recently, the war expanded into Israel's aerial bombardment and ground invasion of Lebanon intended to cripple Hezbollah and its ability to strike Israel with rockets and missiles.

Hezbollah is both an armed group and political party that controls much of southern Lebanon. The EU has not blacklisted its political wing, which has seats in the Lebanese parliament.

Iran, which helped establish Hezbollah four decades ago to serve as its lead proxy in its shadow war against archenemy Israel, has also engaged in tit-for-tat attacks with Israel in recent months, leading to fears of a broader war involving the two regional heavyweights.

Of the two fronts, analysts told RFE/RL, Israel is more inclined to engage in diplomatic efforts with Hamas because it is interested in securing the release of scores of Israeli hostages taken by Hamas in the October 7, 2023, assault.

Recent polls have shown that Israeli public opinion considers the release of the hostages as the top objective of the war in Gaza.

Israel's killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, the alleged mastermind of the October 7 attack and considered by Washington to be a "massive obstacle to peace," is also seen as a potential breakthrough.

The State Department characterized Sinwar's October 17 death as an opportunity to end the conflict in Gaza and secure the release of Israeli hostages. President Joe Biden said it was now "time to move on" and secure a cease-fire.

Hezbollah Seeks Relief

In Lebanon, only Hezbollah and its key backer Iran want a cease-fire because the militant group has "taken such very heavy blows," according to Middle East expert Kenneth Katzman, a senior adviser for the New York-based Soufan Group intelligence consultancy.

"I don't think Israel necessarily wants a lot of diplomacy," he said.

Iran, meanwhile, has recently made the rounds among Arab Gulf States in an effort to persuade them to help deter Israel from attacking key targets in Iran. Fears of Israeli attacks against Iranian oil and even nuclear facilities have risen since Iran fired around 180 ballistic missiles on Israel on October 1.

But while some Gulf states have normalized relations with both Iran and Israel, and helped blunt Iran's missile and drone attack on Israel in April, experts are skeptical of their influence in this diplomatic arena.

"The Arab states have very little sway over Israel, but they have some sway with Washington," Parsi said in written comments.

Staying On The Sidelines

The Gulf states, as well as Washington, also have their own incentives to stand aside because they want to see Hezbollah weakened, experts said.

Thanassis Cambanis, director of the U.S.-based Century Foundation think tank, said that Saudi Arabia and most of the Gulf states "are tacitly willing to tolerate or even support" the war against Hezbollah because it provides them an advantage in "their own regional contest for power with Iran."

In Gaza, Cambanis said, "there is a real perverse lack of incentive" for either Hamas or the Israeli government to work out a cease-fire because extending the conflict helps each of them hold onto power.

Cambanis said that a diplomatic process that involved serious U.S. leverage "could very quickly and very easily end the conflict as it stands now."

But he said that diplomacy cannot currently resolve the underlying causes of the war.

"I don't think it's reasonable to expect diplomacy to come up with a long-term solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Nor do I expect diplomacy to urgently come to a long-term resolution of the boundary disputes between Lebanon and Israel," Cambanis said.

The caretaker prime minister of Lebanon, Najib Mikati, has rejected any move by Iran to hold talks on implementing a UN resolution concerning southern Lebanon, calling it "blatant interference" in his country's internal affairs.Responding to comments a day earlier by Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Qalibaf that Tehran was ready to negotiate on the UN resolution that calls for the border area of southern Lebanon to be free of international weapons or troops, Mikati said on October 18 that the Lebanese government was "surprised by this position."

This "constitutes a blatant interference in Lebanese affairs and an attempt to establish a rejected guardianship over Lebanon," he said in a statement.

Qalibaf made the comments in an interview with the French newspaper Le Figaro.

"The issue of negotiating the implementation of Resolution 1701 is the responsibility of the Lebanese state, and everyone is required to support it in this direction, rather than seeking to impose new guardianships that are rejected on all national and sovereign grounds."

The UN resolution authorizes a peacekeeping mission, called UNIFIL, to help Lebanon keep the border area secure.

The Israeli army launched a ground incursion into the southern border area earlier this month, saying it was pushing out militants from Iran-backed Hezbollah, a militant group and political party that controls much of southern Lebanon, and that UNIFIL has failed in its mission.

Several UN peacekeeping positions in southern Lebanon have since come under fire, but a UNIFIL spokesperson on October 18 said the mission would remain in Lebanon despite the attacks.

"We need to stay, they asked us to move," said UNIFIL spokesman Andrea Tenenti by video link from Beirut.

"The devastation and destruction of many villages along the Blue Line, and even beyond, is shocking," he said.

The Blue Line refers to a demarcation created by the UN to separate Lebanon from Israel and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.

Hezbollah is designated as a terrorist organization by the United States, while the European Union blacklists its armed wing but not its political party. Hezbollah’s political party has seats in the Lebanese parliament.

Iran-backed Hamas, designated a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union, has confirmed the death of leader Yahya Sinwar, considered to be the mastermind of the October 7, 2023, attack that killed some 1,200 people in Israel and triggered the war in Gaza between Israel and the militant group.

Deputy Gaza Hamas chief Khalil al-Hayya, who is also the group's chief negotiator, confirmed on October 18 Israeli reports that Sinwar was killed in Gaza in a televised address where he called on Israel to end its war in the coastal strip of land and withdraw its forces.

The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) first confirmed Sinwar's death on October 17, saying soldiers of the 828th Brigade (Bislach) identified and eliminated three "terrorists," and "after completing the process of identifying the body, it can be confirmed that Yahya Sinwar was eliminated."

"People are shocked and saddened. A Palestinian leader has been killed," 37-year-old Ramzi Sahlout, a former teacher who now helps as a volunteer at a local hospital, told Radio Farda via WhatsApp from northern Gaza. "The situation remains unchanged, and nothing new has happened. The war continues, and the only important issue for people now is the end of the war."

Sinwar's death leaves Iran-backed Hamas without a leader for the second time in less than three months and, according to senior officials from the United States and other Israeli allies, creates the possibility of a new scenario for the region.

"We believe, continue to believe, that finding an end to the war is critical, and we also believe that Mr. Sinwar's death...can provide an inflection point to getting there," said White House spokesperson John Kirby, who is in Berlin with U.S. President Joe Biden as he meets European officials on a variety of topics.

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin noted the removal of Sinwar from the scene opens a path for "a change of direction."

"We'll see how things evolve," Austin said on October 18 during a visit to Brussels for a meeting of NATO defense ministers. "But clearly there are opportunities for a change in direction, and we would hope that, you know, parties would would take advantage of that, both in Lebanon, in Gaza and in Lebanon."

SEE ALSO:

Palestinians Count The Toll Of Israel's Devastating War In Gaza

Added NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte: "I personally will not miss him."

Sinwar's death represents a major victory for the Israeli military and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has been under pressure from many allies, including the United States, for the rising number of civilian casualties in Gaza as a result of the war, and accusations that Israel has been hindering aid supplies to the territory, where hundreds of thousands are living in a growing humanitarian crisis.

But neither side appears prepared, at least publicly, to seize on the opportunity Austin and other diplomats around the world have spoken about in the wake of Sinwar's death.

Hamas said on October 18 it would launch a new phase of fighting in the conflict, while Netanyahu said in a speech late the previous evening that "our war has not ended."

The current war between the two sides broke out after Hamas's October 7 attack, that also saw the militants take some 240 people back to Gaza as hostages.

Israel has since launched a withering offensive that, according to the Hamas-led Heath Ministry in Gaza, has seen more than 42,000 people killed while displacing virtually all of Gaza's 2.3 million people.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Sinwar had rebuffed efforts by the United States and its partners to bring the war to a close through an agreement that would free the hostages held by Hamas in Gaza and alleviate the suffering of the Palestinian people.

The fighting has also spilled over into Lebanon, where Iran-backed Hezbollah, which is designated as a terrorist organization by the U.S., while the EU blacklists its armed wing but not its political party, has fired rockets and missiles into Israel on almost a daily basis in support of Hamas.

Hezbollah’s political party has seats in the Lebanese parliament and the militants control the southern part of the country that borders Israel.

The IDF launched a ground incursion into the southern border area earlier this month, saying it was pushing out Hezbollah militants.

The death of Yahya Sinwar just months after he was named the top leader of Hamas highlights the difficulties the U.S.- and EU-designated Palestinian terrorist group has in protecting high-value targets from Israel, but it might not have a major effect on the course of the war in the Gaza Strip.

The 62-year-old Sinwar was accused of organizing and directing Hamas's deadly assault on Israel on October 7, 2023, landing him at the top of Israel's hit list.

Israel confirmed on October 17 that Sinwar was killed in a military operation in the southern city of Rafah in Gaza. Hamas has not yet commented.

Sinwar's death highlights the high turnover rate of senior Hamas members as well as Israel's "very deep coverage in terms of intelligence and the ability to strike quickly when high-value targets are detected," said Lucas Webber, senior threat intelligence analyst at Tech Against Terrorism and research fellow at the Soufan Center.

The timing of Sinwar's death is also significant, he said, coming as Israel is renewing its offensive in northern Gaza and expanding operations against Hamas ally Hezbollah, an armed group and political party that controls much of southern Lebanon.

"It's seen as a tactical success, taking out a high-value target at a time when they kind of need this internal support for the expansion of their internal and external military campaign," Webber said.

Webber was doubtful about the impact that Sinwar's death could have toward ending the war in Gaza, however.

"He [Sinwar] was obviously very experienced and had a high status among Hamas and its supporters, but I don't think his killing will change the trajectory of the conflict in any fundamental way," Webber said.

Sinwar became Hamas's top leader soon after Israel's suspected assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the group's political chief, in Tehran on July 31.

Hamas is still fighting nearly a year after Israel's retaliatory invasion of Gaza and will be difficult to defeat, Webber notes. Sinwar's death might require some "reorientation" by Hamas, he said, but will not "factor too much" into Israel's attempts to win the war.

Thanassis Cambanis, director of the U.S.-based Century Foundation think tank, says it's difficult to gauge the impact Sinwar's death will have on Hamas's viability to remain in power in Gaza.

But he does see two possible outcomes to Sinwar's death.

"One is that Israel becomes emboldened to even more intensely pursue the complete destruction of Hamas and Gaza," he said. "The other option, which would be more positive, is that his death would create an opening for negotiations to actually lead to an end to the conflict."

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Death Of Hamas Leader Sinwar Prompts Calls For Cease-Fire In Gaza War

Neither Hamas nor Israel has to this point been seriously interested in ending the war, Cambanis says.

"Both sides see it in their interest to continue fighting,” he added. “Sinwar's death could change the dynamic for the better by creating an opening for Hamas to either surrender or come to some kind of negotiated settlement that until now, its leadership hasn't really been that interested in pursuing."

As for who would be in line to replace Sinwar, who was seen as a "ruthless" replacement for his predecessor Haniyeh, Cambanis said that can go two ways as well.

"We've seen more pragmatic people follow after periods of really intense extremism, and then we've also seen factions or parties where people really double down and with each leader who gets killed the successor is even more hard-line," he said.

Trita Parsi, co-founder of the Washington-based Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, warned that the "idea behind Hamas -- that Palestinian statehood only can come through armed resistance against Israel -- has not only not been killed, but it has also likely flourished."

"Israel's indiscriminate bombing of Gaza and massive killings of civilians, including forced starvation, has likely radicalized the Palestinian people and provided more ground for recruitment for Hamas," he added.

Yahya Sinwar, the leader of the U.S.- and EU-designated Palestinian terrorist group Hamas, is dead, according to Israel.

Foreign Minister Israel Katz announced on October 17 that Sinwar was killed during a military operation in the Gaza Strip. Hamas has not yet commented.

The 62-year-old was the alleged architect of the deadly October 7, 2023, attack on Israel. The unprecedented assault triggered Israel's ongoing war in the Palestinian enclave.

Sinwar became Hamas's top leader soon after Israel's suspected assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the group's political chief, in Tehran on July 31.

Sinwar, the head of Hamas's military wing, the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades, was not considered the favorite to succeed Haniyeh, who lived in Qatar.

Khaled Meshaal, a former political chief of Hamas, and Khalil al-Hayya, a prominent figure within the political wing, were seen as frontrunners.

Traditionally, Hamas's political chief is based abroad so he can travel and maintain contact with regional allies, such as Iran and Hezbollah. Sinwar is believed to be in Gaza.

A key reason for Sinwar's appointment, experts said, was his close ties with Iran, which has provided financial and military support to the group.

Molded By Israeli Prisons

Also known by his supporters as Abu Ibrahim, Sinwar was born in a refugee camp in the city of Khan Younis in Gaza.

His parents, like Haniyeh's, fled the coastal town of Ashkelon during the 1948 Arab-Israeli War that resulted in the establishment of the state of Israel -- or what Palestinians call the "nakba," or catastrophe.

Sinwar joined Hamas shortly after it was formed in 1987 and set up its feared internal security organization, Al-Majd, whose main purpose was to find Israeli spies within the group. He gained a reputation for violence and was nicknamed the "Butcher of Khan Younis."

Sinwar was captured by Israeli forces and sentenced to multiple life terms for a variety of offenses -- including the killing of two Israeli soldiers -- and spent more than two decades in prison.

While in prison, Sinwar organized strikes to improve working conditions and emerged as a leader among incarcerated Palestinians.

Sinwar was released from prison in 2011 as part of an exchange that saw more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners freed in return for one Israeli soldier held by Hamas.

Soon after his release, Sinwar accompanied Haniyeh on a trip to Tehran, where he met Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Yahya Sinwar, considered to be the mastermind of the October 7, 2023, attack that triggered the war in Gaza between Israel and the militant group Hamas, has been killed in southern Gaza in a major victory for the Israeli military.

Sinwar's death also prompted calls for the return of the hostages still held by Hamas, which has been designated a terrorist organization by the United States and European Union, and an end to the war in Gaza.

The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) initially confirmed Sinwar's death in a post on X on October 17 that said simply, "Eliminated: Yahya Sinwar." It released a longer statement later in the evening saying soldiers of the 828th Brigade (Bislach) identified and eliminated three terrorists, and "after completing the process of identifying the body, it can be confirmed that Yahya Sinwar was eliminated."

Sinwar's death leaves Iran-backed Hamas without a leader for the second time in less than three months.

It also represents a major boost to the Israeli military and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has been under pressure from many allies, including the United States, for the rising number of civilian casualties in Gaza as a result of the war, and accusations that Israel has been hindering aid supplies to the territory, where hundreds of thousands are living in a growing humanitarian crisis.

"Eliminated: Yahya Sinwar," the IDF said in its post, giving no further details.

SEE ALSO:

Who Was Hamas Leader Yahya Sinwar?

Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz also confirmed Sinwar had been killed, calling it a "victory for the entire free world" and "an opportunity for the immediate release of the hostages and paves the way for a change that will lead to a new reality in Gaza."

Hamas has not officially commented on the reports.

U.S. President Joe Biden told reporters after landing in Germany following a phone conversation with Netanyahu that it is time to move toward a cease-fire in Gaza and "make sure that we are moving in a direction that we're going to be able to make things better for the whole world," he said. "It's time for this war to end and bring these hostages home. So that's what we're ready to do."

Biden added that U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will travel to the Middle East in the coming days to discuss ways to push for a Gaza hostage and cease-fire deal.

Netanyahu said earlier in a televised address that Israel will keep control over Gaza long enough to ensure Hamas does not rearm.

"Hamas will no longer rule Gaza. This is the start of the day after Hamas," he said, adding that Israel will keep fighting until all the hostages are free.

“Our war is not yet ended," he said.

Biden said earlier in a statement said it was on Sinwar's orders that Hamas militants invaded Israel on October 7, 2023, and committed "massacres, rapes, and kidnappings."

Vice President Kamala Harris also commented on the death of Sinwar, saying Hamas is no longer capable of carrying out another October 7 and "gives us an opportunity to finally end the war in Gaza."

SEE ALSO:

Hamas Leader's Death Makes Israeli 'Hit List' Shorter But Might Not Alter Gaza War

Blinken recalled the victims of "Sinwar’s unspeakable crimes" in a statement and said the "world is a better place with him gone."

He said Sinwar had rebuffed efforts by the United States and its partners to bring the war to a close through an agreement that would free the hostages held by Hamas in Gaza and alleviate the suffering of the Palestinian people.

"In the days ahead, the United States will redouble its efforts with partners to end this conflict, secure the release all hostages, and chart a new path forward that will enable the people of Gaza to rebuild their lives and realize their aspirations free from war and free from the brutal grip of Hamas," Blinken said in a statement.

French President Emmanuel Macron and German Foreign Minister Baerbock issued statement calling on Hamas to release all hostages.

Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said he hoped Sinwar's death will lead to a cease-fire in Gaza.

The speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, Mike Johnson (Republican-Louisiana), said Sinwar's death should bring "relief" to Israel.

The United States imposed sanctions on October 16 on individuals and companies that it said are part of a sanctions evasion network that funnels millions of dollars to Hezbollah in part through sales of illegal amphetamines.

The action targets three individuals and four Lebanon-based companies linked to Hezbollah's "finance team." The individuals have registered companies in their own names in order to conceal Hezbollah's interest in the activities, the Treasury Department said in a statement.

"The companies in turn provide Hezbollah potentially lucrative business opportunities while also providing them access the formal financial system," according to the department.

The sanctions build on designations imposed in September on other individuals and entities linked to Hezbollah's corporate network. Those sanctions targeted Hezbollah finance officials who the department said masquerade as ordinary Lebanese business owners, as well as several of their companies.

The Treasury also placed sanctions on three individuals involved in the production and sale of the amphetamine known as captagon, who it said have funded the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and its allies, including Hezbollah.

"Today's action underscores [Hezbollah's] destabilizing influence within Lebanon and on the wider region, as the group, its affiliates, and its supporters continue to finance their operations through covert involvement in commercial trade and the illicit trafficking of captagon," Bradley Smith, acting undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, said in the statement.

State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said in a statement that the sanctions were imposed in support of the objectives of the Illicit Captagon Trafficking Suppression Act passed by Congress last year and signed by President Joe Biden in April.

The law requires the president to impose sanctions on foreign persons "determined to engage in activities or transactions to contribute to the illicit production and proliferation of captagon."

Miller said the "dangerous and highly addictive amphetamine harms communities and countries across the region and beyond and is a source of funding for the Syrian regime and its backers, including Hezbollah."

He said Hezbollah continues to launch rockets into Israel, further destabilizing both Lebanon and the region, and the United States remains steadfast in its commitment to "disrupt Hezbollah's access to the international financial system and its various methods of generating revenue, which the Iran-backed group uses to fund its violence."

"We will also continue to target the illicit captagon trade in the region, which has become an illicit billion-dollar enterprise operated in part by senior members of the Syrian regime," he said.

The sanctions freeze any assets held by the individuals and companies in U.S. jurisdiction and bar U.S. persons from conducting business with them.

The United States has said it will deploy an advanced antimissile system and around 100 soldiers to operate it to Israel, a key ally.

The Pentagon said on October 13 that the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system will bolster Israel’s already formidable air defenses. It is unclear when the system and the U.S. soldiers will arrive in Israel.

What Is THAAD?

The THAAD is one of the most advanced and powerful antimissile systems in the U.S. arsenal.

Israel currently uses several systems developed with the United States -- the Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and Arrow -- to intercept rockets, drones, and missiles at different altitudes and distances.

The THAAD system has advanced radar, which detects missiles from longer distances. Its interceptors also have a longer range.

“It is a far superior antimissile system,” said Hossein Aryan, a Britain-based defense expert. “Its range is vastly [more] extensive” compared to Israel’s air defense systems.

Why Is The U.S. Sending THAAD To Israel?

The U.S. decision came after Iran fired around 180 ballistic missiles on Israel on October 1, an attack that some experts say exposed vulnerabilities in Israel’s air defenses.

Aryan said Iran’s attack prompted Washington to boost Israel’s antimissile defense capabilities in the event of “another potential attack from Tehran.”

Tehran’s massive missile barrage -- its biggest-ever direct attack against its archenemy -- was in response to Israel’s invasion of Lebanon and its recent assassinations of key Iranian allies in the region.

Israel downplayed the damage caused by Iran’s attack. But satellite imagery appeared to show around 30 ballistic missiles landed in and around the Nevatim air base in southern Israel. The images show damage to buildings and craters on the runway at the base.

The Nevatim base houses U.S.-made F-35 fighter planes. Experts say Iranian missiles only narrowly missed some of the fighter planes stationed in the base.

Meanwhile, one missile landed close to the headquarters of Mossad, Israel’s spy agency, in Tel Aviv, causing a deep crater.

Israel has vowed a severe response to Iran’s missile attack.

Meanwhile, a drone attack by Hezbollah, the armed group and political party that controls much of southern Lebanon, killed four Israeli soldiers in a base on October 13.

Shashank Johsi, a visiting fellow at Kings College London, said Washington is deploying the THAAD system “because it anticipates that Israel's retaliation to the recent Iranian missile barrage will be a large and significant attack.”

That, in return, is “likely to prompt yet another Iranian strike,” he said.

Joshi, who is also the defense editor of The Economist magazine, said Israel has a range of options, from striking Iranian weapons facilities to targeting its leadership or nuclear sites.

“Whichever option it chooses, Iran's leadership is likely to retaliate in force,” he said.

The windows in Zakar Keshishian’s house rattle violently as Israeli air strikes pound Lebanon’s capital, Beirut.

“We don’t know how close the bombs will land from us,” said the 56-year-old. “We have to pray that we stay alive.”

Keshishian lives in Mezher, a small town just outside of Beirut that has been spared the worst of Israel’s devastating aerial bombardment of Lebanon.

Keshishian is a member of Lebanon’s 150,000-strong Armenian Christian community. Many are the descendants of the survivors of the World War I-era mass killings of up to 1.5 million Armenians by the Ottoman Empire that dozens of countries consider a genocide.

Now, Israel’s war has left many Lebanese Armenians with a painful choice: stay and risk death or leave behind a country they call home.

"We have at least 100 years of history here,” said Keshisian, a musician born in Beirut. “Letting go of our community, culture, and properties here will be incredibly hard.”

Israel’s ground invasion of Lebanon and its ongoing air strikes targeting Hezbollah, an armed group and political party that controls much of southern Lebanon, has taken a huge toll on civilians.

Lebanese officials say more than 2,300 people, mostly civilians, have been killed since September 23. Over 1.2 million people have been displaced, more than a fifth of the population, in the biggest displacement in the country’s history.

Little of Lebanon, a multiethnic and multireligious country of some 5.5 million people, has been spared. Israeli ground forces have invaded southern Lebanon. Israeli warplanes have carried out thousands of air strikes in Beirut and other major cities.

Keshishian, his wife, and 12-year-old son rarely venture outside their home in Mezher, a predominately Armenian town northeast of Beirut. Keshishian said he spends most of the day consoling his terrified son.

“I try to reassure him that this is temporary and that I went through similar experiences and survived,” said Keshishian. “But, in reality, my fears are eating me up.”

Keshishian says Israel’s war in Lebanon is not just against Hezbollah, considered a terrorist organization by the United States, although the EU has only blacklisted its armed wing.

“We’re all victims -- ordinary people, children, and the elderly,” he said. “We’re all victims of these inhumane actions, and the homes of ordinary citizens are being destroyed.”

'Horror Of War'

Yessayi Havatian thought he was safe in his home in Anjar, a village some 60 kilometers east of Beirut.

The predominately Armenian village even took in hundreds of internally displaced people fleeing Israel’s bombardment of the country’s south.

But the 64-year-old Havatian said the war has now come to the village’s doorstep.

“The reality hit home when the sounds of explosions reached our ears -- much closer than we anticipated -- reminding us of the horror of war,” said the academic.

SEE ALSO:

Sleeping On Beaches, In Cars: Lebanon's Displaced Have Nowhere To Go Amid Israeli Bombing

Anjar, a historic village popular with tourists, lies just a few kilometers from the main border crossing with Syria.

Israeli air strikes on October 4 struck the Masnaa crossing, cutting off the road to traffic. Israel claimed Hezbollah was transporting weapons through the border.

Around 500,000 people have crossed the border in the past three weeks, many on foot carrying their children and belongings, to flee the violence in Lebanon.

Havatian, who was born in Anjar, survived Lebanon’s civil war from 1975 to 1990 and the Israeli-Hezbollah war in 2006. But he says the current conflict is different.

“I have witnessed many wars and armed clashes in Lebanon, but I have never seen such extensive destruction or attacks against the civilian population,” he said.

“The southern regions of Lebanon are completely devastated. It seems like the scenes of Gaza are repeating themselves,” added Havatian, referring to Israel’s ongoing war in the Palestinian enclave.

'Constant State Of Alarm'

In Beirut, Christine Tanielian-Sarkisian coordinates the work of the Jinishian Memorial Program, an NGO that supports disadvantaged members of Lebanon’s Armenian community.

“Over the past few weeks, I have heard many heartbreaking stories from vulnerable families,” said the humanitarian worker.

“Mothers who we have helped told us how their children are suffering from trauma, insomnia, and stress-induced vomiting,” she added.

The 47-year-old lives with her husband and three children in east Beirut, a relatively safe area at the foot of the mountains that flank the city.

But she said Israel’s aerial bombardment of Beirut, a densely populated city of some 2.5 million people, has touched everyone.

“Maybe the war is not directly against us [the Armenian community], and perhaps we aren’t the main targets,” she said.

“But for the past few weeks, we have lived in a constant state of alarm. Our city feels paralyzed, and chaos surrounds us,” she added.

Tanielian-Sarkisian fears that Israel’s escalating war in Lebanon will force her and her family to flee the country. If the family is compelled to evacuate, their destination is Armenia.

“Lebanon is my country, and the Armenian community has fought hard to build our lives here,” she said. “We pray it will not come to that.”

Israeli forces launched fresh strikes on Hezbollah in eastern Lebanon on October 15 after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed no mercy for the Iran-backed militant group.

Multiple Israeli strikes targeted Lebanon's Bekaa Valley, taking a hospital in the city of Baalbek out of service, according to Lebanon's official National News Agency.

The strikes came as Netanyahu vowed a ruthless response to a Hezbollah drone strike that killed four Israeli soldiers in central Israel on October 13.

Netanyahu, speaking during a visit to the military base where the four soldiers were killed, said Israel would continue to strike the group "without mercy, everywhere in Lebanon -- including Beirut."

Hezbollah -- which is considered a terrorist group by the United States, although the EU has only blacklisted its armed wing, and not the political party -- controls much of southern Lebanon.

The Hezbollah attack on the Israeli army base in the town of Binyamina was one of the bloodiest since October last year and employed a "swarm" of drones that were difficult to locate and destroy by the Israeli air defenses.

Israel's sophisticated air defenses have usually shot down Hezbollah's rockets without problems.

Following the deadly Hezbollah strike, Israeli strikes killed 41 people and injured 124 in Lebanon on October 14, the Health Ministry said. More than half of the victims were killed in the northern village of Aito, which lies outside Hezbollah's traditional strongholds.

Israel said it “struck a target belonging to the Hezbollah terrorist organization,” but the UN's human rights office in Geneva called for an independent investigation.

“We have real concerns with respect to…the laws of war,” said Jeremy Laurence, a spokesperson for the human rights office. Laurence said the UN had received credible reports that a dozen women and children were among the dead.

In a televised speech on October 15, Hezbollah’s acting leader declared that the group is focused on “hurting the enemy” by targeting Haifa and other parts of Israel, including Tel Aviv. Sheikh Naim Kassem, Hezbollah’s deputy chief, vowed to “defeat our enemies and drive them out of our lands.”

Separately, Netanyahu's office said in a statement on October 15 that he will take into account the position of the United States -- Israel's main ally -- but will have his country's own "national interests" as a top priority as it ponders a response to a massive Iranian attack earlier this month.

"We listen to the opinions of the United States, but we will make our final decisions based on our national interest," his office said in a statement.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin warned Israel that it must increase the amount of humanitarian aid it is allowing into Gaza within the next 30 days or it could risk losing access to U.S. weapons funding.

The warning came in a letter to their Israeli counterparts dated October 13 that restates U.S. policy toward humanitarian aid and arms transfers.

A senior U.S. defense official said on October 15 that Blinken and Austin sent the letter as they saw a recent decrease in assistance reaching Gaza. The official said a similar letter sent by Blinken in April triggered “concrete measures from the Israelis.”

The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the latest letter was a way to similarly address the problem.

Fears of an all-out regional war grew as signs indicated Israel could be preparing to launch a direct strike on Iran in retaliation for Tehran's strike on October 1.

U.S. President Joe Biden has warned Netanyahu against striking Iran's nuclear or oil facilities to avoid a further escalation of the conflict.

On October 13, Biden announced that he had ordered the Pentagon to send a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery and troops to Israel as part of U.S. efforts to defend its ally.

With reporting by AFP, AP, and Reuters