WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Donald Trump entered the presidency with an unambiguous message to the world: "America First." Now, just over 100 days into his second term, that foreign policy doctrine -- marked by skepticism toward allies, disdain for global institutions, and a preference for transactional diplomacy -- is once again under scrutiny.
"There's a tension, at least it seems to me, between the slogans 'America First' and 'Make America Great Again,'" said Clifford May, founder of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). "To be 'great again,' America has to lead. And it can't lead if it cedes ground to adversaries like Communist China, which [President] Xi Jinping is clearly aiming for."
RFE/RL spoke with May as part of a series of interviews called America's Foreign Policy Shifts.
In his return to the White House, Trump has rebuked NATO members for historically low defense spending in the face of Russia's growing belligerence, condemned the global trading system as biased against American interests, and sanctioned the International Criminal Court.
At home, Trump is clamping down on both legal and illegal immigration while slashing foreign aid -- moves critics see as symptomatic of a broader US disengagement from global leadership. While some of the president's supporters argue that America must turn inward to confront deindustrialization, rising inequality, and mass migration, May argues that turning away from the world could run counter to the president's own goal of preserving US global primacy.
America's Foreign Policy Shift: A 3-Part Interview Series
This is a three-part series of interviews RFE/RL is conducting with global thinkers offering different perspectives on what we have learned from the first 100 days of Trump's second term. The aim is to provide insight into how the administration of US President Donald Trump is approaching some of the most challenging issues for Europe and the wider region since the end of World War II: Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a heightened confrontation between Russia and the West, and rising tides of disinformation.
May, who founded FDD following the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, has long advocated for robust American engagement abroad.
The think tank, which describes itself as nonpartisan, is known for its staunch support of Israel and Ukraine.
May began his career as a journalist, often reporting from overseas. He later served as communications director for the Republican National Committee during the 2000 election and was appointed in 2008 by President George W. Bush to serve on the Broadcasting Board of Governors, the US government agency responsible at the time for RFE/RL and other state-financed broadcasters.
In a wide-ranging conversation with RFE/RL, May argued the world today is even more perilous than during the Cold War, a time when the United States and Soviet Union vied for global influence in a nuclear standoff.
He says the United States confronts not only Moscow but also an "axis of aggressors" that includes Beijing, Pyongyang, and Tehran. Their shared ambition, he said, is to dismantle the US-led liberal order and replace it with an illiberal one.
"It's a more challenging Cold War than the last one," May said. Despite ideological differences -- China's and North Korea's brands of communism, Iran's Islamic theocracy, and Russia's neo-Imperialism -- he rejects the notion their cooperation is purely opportunistic.
China, North Korea, and Iran are materially supporting Russia's war in Ukraine with missiles, drones, and other weapons systems. Pyongyang has even sent more than 11,000 troops to assist, while Russia may offer sensitive submarine technology to China and North Korea in return, according to US Indo-Pacific Command Admiral Samuel Paparo.
Meanwhile, all four nations are accelerating their military build-ups, particularly in missile production, prompting warnings that the United States is no longer a safe haven from attack. May argues that unless Washington and its European allies ramp up defense spending, they risk strategic decline.
'Europeans Are Getting The Message'
Trump last week unveiled a flat top-line defense budget of $892 billion for the next fiscal year along with a onetime infusion of about $120 billion that the Pentagon can use through 2028. The budget includes funding for a space-based missile shield dubbed the Golden Dome.
Some Republicans in the Senate and House say a onetime infusion isn't enough and that the top line must increase to rearm for today's threats.
European NATO members, under pressure from the White House and with war raging nearby, have also begun stepping up their defense budgets. Yet Trump's persistent clashes with Europe over shared defense responsibilities come amid disputes over trade, raising fears of a transatlantic rift even as adversaries draw closer.
"Trump is right to want every NATO member to contribute meaningfully to the collective security of the alliance. It can't be an entitlement that America protects you and you do what you want to do. I think [the Europeans] are getting that message," May said.
Trump's confrontational tone may be strategic.
"To scare them to make sure that they know he's serious about this. Otherwise, they won't do it," May added, caveating that he does not believe the administration will withdraw US protection from Europe.
US Military Aid To Ukraine
Another point of transatlantic contention is Ukraine. Trump has made ending the war a top priority, pushing for a 30-day cease-fire and sidelining European leaders in the process, despite their high stakes in the outcome.
His insistence that both Kyiv and Moscow must make concessions has alarmed officials in Ukraine and Brussels, who fear he may press Ukraine to surrender territory.
In a recent interview with Time magazine, Trump said Crimea -- annexed by Russia in 2014 -- "will stay with Russia" under any peace deal but stopped short of saying whether the United States would formally recognize Crimea or other occupied territories as Russian.
May contends the United States should continue to arm Ukraine. While Trump has criticized the $177 billion in US aid sent to Kyiv, May says future support could be financed by Europe, Ukraine itself, or with frozen Russian assets.
"If we are selling munitions to Ukraine, that's good for us," he said. "It supports our factories, strengthens our defense industrial base, and ensures that Putin can't just regroup and attack again in a few years."
He added: "We shouldn't want to see any free democratic nation conquered and dragged into a dictatorship by military force. I don't think that's in the American interest. And I certainly don't think it's consistent with American values."
Putin's ambitions extend beyond Ukraine, May said, suggesting the Russian president could seek a land bridge to Kaliningrad -- a Russian exclave separated by NATO members Poland and Lithuania -- just as he did to Crimea.
That scenario, May said, poses an existential test for NATO.
"Do we fight for a road through southern Lithuania? If not, NATO collapses," he said.
May said he believes the war may end in a Korean-style armistice rather than a comprehensive peace, with a final settlement perhaps only possible once Putin is no longer in power. The fighting between North Korea and South Korea ended in 1953 after three years without a peace agreement, and the two countries are technically still at war.
The Russian president has ignored Trump's cease-fire overture for two months. While Trump has generally avoided direct criticism of Putin, he has hinted at frustration with the lack of progress.
"I do think that President Trump has become more realistic" about Putin's intentions, May said. "I'm hoping he's realizing that [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelenskyy is not the problem."
Putin's no-show at peace talks in Turkey on May 15 -- he effectively rejected a challenge from Zelenskyy to hold a face-to-face meeting, instead sending a lower-level delegation whose makeup speaks volumes about his maximalist goals in the war -- may provide the last piece of evidence needed to convince Trump of who to pressure.
This is the second in a three-part series on America’s foreign policy shifts. The next instalment on May 23: A conversation with Leon Aron, a senior fellow and director of Russian studies at the American Enterprise Institute, who concentrates on Russian domestic politics, Russian foreign policy, and US-Russian relations.
