For a while in the whirlwind of diplomacy this week over the Kremlin's war on Ukraine, it seemed like Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had gotten the better of his adversary.
After Russian President Vladimir Putin responded to calls from Kyiv and the West for a 30-day truce by proposing direct talks in Istanbul on May 15, Zelenskyy hit back by saying he'd be in Turkey and challenging Putin to meet him face-to-face for the first time since 2019.
Now Putin has found what he presumably sees as the best way out of a tight spot, effectively rejecting Zelenskyy's summons and sending a lower-level delegation whose makeup speaks volumes about his maximalist goals in the war, now well into its fourth year since he launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
The outcome of direct talks between two presidents whose mutual animus is obvious would have been hard to predict, but the absence of such a meeting -- and the composition of the negotiating team Putin sent -- suggest the chances for a breakthrough are slim.
Here's a look at the probable motives behind Putin's decision, as well as the potential consequences, risks, and rewards.
Why Doesn't Putin Want To Go?
The main reason for Putin's decision may be quite simple: He does not want to seem like he is doing Zelenskyy's bidding. He also may not want to seem to acknowledge the Zelenskyy's legitimacy, which he has questioned repeatedly, if baselessly, over the past year.
Putin may also have wanted to reject pressure from the West and particularly European countries whose leaders have echoed Zelenskyy in saying a no-show would be evidence that he doesn't want peace.
US President Donald Trump, whose promise to broker an end to the biggest war in Europe since 1945 has driven an upsurge in diplomacy over the conflict since he took office for a second time in January, had suggested he could join Putin and Zelenskyy if they met.
Putin apparently decided the costs of face-to-face talks with Zelenskyy would outweigh the benefits of a potential three-way meeting -- though it's possible he may be hoping for a one-on-one meeting with Trump, who is in the region on a Middle East trip.
Who's Who In The Russian Delegation For Talks With Ukraine
Eight Russian officials arrived in Istanbul for the first direct peace talks with Ukraine since inconclusive negotiations held shortly after Russia launched the full-scale invasion in February 2022. Russia described four of the attendees as official delegates and four as "experts." Here is a look the Russian delegation:
Vladimir Medinsky, heading the delegation, also led Russia's negotiating team in 2022. A Putin aide and former culture minister, he's a chief architect of propaganda denigrating Ukraine. In 2023, he published a history textbook describing Ukraine as an "ultranationalist state" and an "anti-Russia created by the West."
Igor Kostyukov is the director of Russia's military intelligence agency, known as GRU, and is under US and EU sanctions. He was not reported to have been a participant in the 2022 talks. Russian media reports say his inclusion signals Moscow's intention to negotiate over the battlefield situation in Ukraine.
Mikhail Galuzin is a deputy foreign minister who has overseen relations with the Commonwealth of Independent States countries since 2022. A career diplomat focusing on the Asia-Pacific region, he has been ambassador to Japan, Indonesia, and other countries. He has criticized Kyiv on multiple occasions.
Aleksandr Fomin is a deputy defense minister responsible for international military cooperation. A participant in the 2022 talks, he claimed Russian forces that failed to seize Ukraine's capital and were being beaten back were withdrawing from the Kyiv and Chernihiv regions as a "gesture of goodwill."
Viktor Shevtsov is deputy head of the Defense Ministry's Main Directorate for International Military Cooperation. His presence at the 2022 negotiations was not officially disclosed, but he can be seen in photos from the talks.
Aleksei Polishchuk is director of the Foreign Ministry department that handles ties with Ukraine, Moldova, and Belarus. He has made baseless claims that Ukraine was preparing to attack Belarus and has cast European efforts to muster a reassurance force for Ukraine as plans for a "foreign intervention."
Yelena Podobreyevskaya works in the Kremlin's new Department for State Policy in the Humanitarian Sphere, which oversees "historical education" and "reinforcing Russia's spiritual and moral foundations." Frequently seen alongside Medinsky, she is reported to have been his chief of staff in the past.
Aleksandr Zorin is first deputy head of the Russian Armed Forces' Information Directorate. Russian war blogger Aleksandr Kots has described him as "a heavyweight negotiator." CNN has reported that Zorin was involved in negotiations to end the Russian siege of the Azovstal factory in Mariupol, Ukraine, in 2022.
By Yelizaveta Surnacheva and Systema
Instead of traveling to Turkey, Putin sent a delegation that looked deliberately low-level: It did not include Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov or the top Kremlin foreign policy aide, Yury Ushakov.
It did include at least two members of the team that conducted the most recent direct peace talks with Ukraine. That effort started days after the full-scale invasion and fizzled out about two months later as the sides wrangled over major points of contention and amid revelations of atrocities committed by Russian soldiers in Bucha, a city they abandoned as they withdrew from northern Ukraine after failing to capture Kyiv.
When Putin called for direct talks in an announcement in the middle of the night on May 11, he cast them as a resumption of the 2022 negotiations, held in part in Istanbul.
By dispatching the same delegates, he sent a clear message: Realistic or not, Russia has not abandoned its intention of turning Ukraine into a country with a toothless military, limited sovereignty, and little or no access to Western security support.
In the 2022 talks, "Russia was demanding Ukrainian capitulation in the form of imposed neutralization and demilitarization. Those conditions were obviously unacceptable to Ukraine and would have made it defenseless against a repeat invasion," Eric Ciaramella, a former White House National Security Council official for Russia and Ukraine, told RFE/RL earlier this year.
"Ukraine is in a much better position now to resist demands for capitulation via demilitarization and neutralization."
The head of the Russian delegation, Kremlin aide Vladimir Medinsky, also led Moscow's team at the 2022 talks. The following year, he published a history textbook that echoed false narratives Putin has spread, describing modern Ukraine as an "ultranationalist state" and an "anti-Russia created by the West."
In an additional, trolling twist, the Russian delegation in Istanbul now includes the European-sanctioned head of the military intelligence agency, known as the GRU. No known intelligence officers participated in the 2022 talks, and none was in Kyiv's delegation this time around.
"Vladimir Putin's signal is clear: He does not take the negotiations very seriously, and since 2022 he has not lost his desire to humiliate the Ukrainians," Russian-language news outlet The Bell wrote after the makeup of the delegation was announced late on May 14.
"The delegation also has a substantive message. As Putin said, he will insist on the same conditions as in Istanbul three years ago, including those unacceptable for Ukraine -- for example, limiting the size of its army."
Zelenskyy, commenting on the Russian delegation after he arrived in Ankara on May 15 for talks with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, said that "[it] all looks like a sham."
Risk And Reward
By brushing off the challenge from Zelenskyy, Putin "wriggled out of the difficult diplomatic situation that he had gotten himself into, and in general [it means] he will continue to lie and fight [the war against Ukraine]," political commentator Ivan Preobrazhensky wrote on Telegram.
Observers say the decision could potentially backfire.
"For Putin, this may be yet another carefully calculated move to show that he controls the levers of this war," Mick Ryan, a retired Australian major general, wrote in a blog post on May 15.
"He is playing a high-risk game, however. The Russian president has calculated so far that Donald Trump, unwilling to escalate the conflict, will continue to tolerate Putin's insults and brutal behavior against Ukraine," Ryan wrote.
"But Putin's decision might also be seen by Trump and others in his administration as a deliberate insult. It could (if we squint our eyes enough) finally force Trump to take action against the Russians. This might comprise additional sanctions, and potentially, an increase in the amount of US weaponry that Trump permits Ukraine to purchase."
Ahead of Putin's order naming the delegation for the Istanbul talks, Ukrainian officials and Kyiv's European supporters said that if Putin stayed away, it would mean he is not serious about seeking peace.
The European Union's top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, said on May 13 that Putin wouldn't "dare" show up at the meeting as "Russia is clearly playing games, trying to buy time…. I don't think they (Russia) are interested in peace."
Still, Putin may hope that Trump -- who used capital letters in a social media post to urge Ukraine to agree "immediately" after Putin ignored Western calls for a 30-day cease-fire and proposed the direct talks in Istanbul -- will end up blaming Ukraine if there's no progress toward peace this week.
But as things stand, the prospects for headway seem dim.
The first direct peace talks in three years "could, in theory, lead to something -- but don't count on it," Britain-based Russia analyst Sam Greene wrote in a post on Substack.
"By my reading, there isn't sufficient overlap in the parties' interests to allow for progress."
"Zelenskyy's overriding aim at this stage is to push the process started by Trump toward a cease-fire that might allow for a genuine deterrent against renewed Russian aggression."
In Istanbul, then, Kyiv's position is designed to project good will towards Washington to prevent a deeper rift with Trump, while making clear the absurd maximalism of Russia's negotiating positions and buying time for the Europeans to get their act together on a reassurance force," Greene wrote.
"Putin's overriding aim is to achieve at the negotiating table what they can't achieve on the battlefield, namely the neutering of Western -- and particularly European -- support for Ukraine," he added.
"Thus, the point of coming to Istanbul is to engage just enough to keep Trump from walking away and to discourage the Europeans from interfering, but not so much that Putin gets locked into a deal that leaves chips on the table."
