Middle East
What Is THAAD And Why Is The U.S. Deploying It To Israel?
The United States has said it will deploy an advanced antimissile system and around 100 soldiers to operate it to Israel, a key ally.
The Pentagon said on October 13 that the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system will bolster Israel’s already formidable air defenses. It is unclear when the system and the U.S. soldiers will arrive in Israel.
What Is THAAD?
The THAAD is one of the most advanced and powerful antimissile systems in the U.S. arsenal.
Israel currently uses several systems developed with the United States -- the Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and Arrow -- to intercept rockets, drones, and missiles at different altitudes and distances.
The THAAD system has advanced radar, which detects missiles from longer distances. Its interceptors also have a longer range.
“It is a far superior antimissile system,” said Hossein Aryan, a Britain-based defense expert. “Its range is vastly [more] extensive” compared to Israel’s air defense systems.
Why Is The U.S. Sending THAAD To Israel?
The U.S. decision came after Iran fired around 180 ballistic missiles on Israel on October 1, an attack that some experts say exposed vulnerabilities in Israel’s air defenses.
Aryan said Iran’s attack prompted Washington to boost Israel’s antimissile defense capabilities in the event of “another potential attack from Tehran.”
Tehran’s massive missile barrage -- its biggest-ever direct attack against its archenemy -- was in response to Israel’s invasion of Lebanon and its recent assassinations of key Iranian allies in the region.
Israel downplayed the damage caused by Iran’s attack. But satellite imagery appeared to show around 30 ballistic missiles landed in and around the Nevatim air base in southern Israel. The images show damage to buildings and craters on the runway at the base.
The Nevatim base houses U.S.-made F-35 fighter planes. Experts say Iranian missiles only narrowly missed some of the fighter planes stationed in the base.
Meanwhile, one missile landed close to the headquarters of Mossad, Israel’s spy agency, in Tel Aviv, causing a deep crater.
Israel has vowed a severe response to Iran’s missile attack.
Meanwhile, a drone attack by Hezbollah, the armed group and political party that controls much of southern Lebanon, killed four Israeli soldiers in a base on October 13.
Shashank Johsi, a visiting fellow at Kings College London, said Washington is deploying the THAAD system “because it anticipates that Israel's retaliation to the recent Iranian missile barrage will be a large and significant attack.”
That, in return, is “likely to prompt yet another Iranian strike,” he said.
Joshi, who is also the defense editor of The Economist magazine, said Israel has a range of options, from striking Iranian weapons facilities to targeting its leadership or nuclear sites.
“Whichever option it chooses, Iran's leadership is likely to retaliate in force,” he said.
More News
- By Amos Chapple
Amid US-Israeli Campaign, Iranian Kurds Watch And Wait
After initially voicing support, US President Donald Trump says he doesn't want Iran's Kurds to enter the military operation against Tehran -- at least for now. Still, one group of exiled Kurds is "preparing for war" just in case, according to a photographer who visited one stronghold of Iranian Kurds.
Photojournalist Sedat Suna gained access on March 12 to a mountain base of the Komala -- Reform Faction, an armed political entity of Iranian Kurds based in the northeastern region of Iraq that has recently been targeted by Iranian drone strikes.
The armed group is part of an alliance of several Iranian Kurdish political parties that was formed shortly before the US-Israeli military operation was launched on February 28. It seeks a self-determining region within Iran that would be similar to the current semiautonomous Kurdistan Region of Iraq.
"They see [the war] as an opportunity," the photographer told RFE/RL, adding that the fighters insisted they are not waiting for a green light from the United States to enter the conflict in Iran. "They say they can make their own decisions."
A spokesman for the Komala party has vowed the fighters would "start the liberation," in the Kurdish region of Iran, provided the United States pledges support.
Kurds are an ethnic group of around 30-40 million people living largely across mountainous areas spanning parts of Iran, Iraq, Syria and Turkey. The mostly Sunni Muslim group is one of the world's largest ethnicities without a country of their own.
Iranian Kurds live mostly along the western border of the country and make up around 10 percent of Iran's population of some 92 million.
Kurdish relations with Tehran have remained tense since soon after the 1979 Islamic Revolution when the country's new rulers launched mass killings of Kurds, who were viewed as a danger to Iran's territorial integrity.
Today, observers say there are immense complications involved with potential Kurdish involvement in the ongoing war in Iran.
Kamran Matin, an Iran expert at Sussex University, says exiled Iranian Kurdish groups enjoy widespread support inside Iran's Kurdish region, but he believes only a specific set of conditions would open the door to Iranian Kurds -- both inside and outside the country -- openly entering the war against the Islamic republic.
Firstly, Matin says, Iranian regime forces would need to be "significantly degraded in [Iranian] Kurdistan." Additionally, Kurdish groups would require an "explicit commitment from the US for long term military and political support in the form of the establishment of a no-fly zone over Iranian Kurdistan."
And, he says, they would need a US pledge of support for Kurdish rights within a future Iran.
That level of US commitment appears unlikely for now.
Amid reports the CIA was arming Kurdish groups in neighboring Iraq, on March 5 Trump stated he would be "all for it" if Iranian Kurds sparked an uprising. He later walked that back, telling reporters he had ruled out the Kurds getting involved, saying, "We don't want to make the war any more complex than it already is."
Photographer Suna says there is widespread goodwill toward the United States among the fighters he visited, with some bearing US flags on their uniforms.
In Iraqi Kurdistan, the authorities have ruled out the idea of Iraqi Kurds entering the war in Iran.
Qubad Talabani, the deputy prime minister of Iraq's Kurdistan Region, recently told reporters, "We're not guns for hire."
In a message apparently aimed at Iranian Kurdish militant groups in Iraq, the Kurdistan regional government has also stated that "Iraqi territory must not be used as a launching point for attacks against neighboring countries."
For its part, Tehran has threatened that if there is any incursion by Kurdish fighters from Iraqi territory, "all facilities of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq...will be widely targeted."
Will Iran Mine The Strait Of Hormuz?
This tiny stretch of water carries about 20 percent of the world’s oil. And Iran is trying to close it by mining it. US President Donald Trump has put pressure on European allies to help protect the Strait of Hormuz, warning that NATO faces a “very bad” future if its members fail to come to Washington’s aid.
- By Frud Bezhan
Next Flashpoint In Iran War? The Bab Al-Mandab Strait Off Yemen's Coast
Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz in response to a massive US-Israel bombing campaign has wreaked havoc on world energy markets and sent oil prices soaring.
Things could get even worse, experts say, if passage through the Bab al-Mandab Strait -- another crucial shipping route in the Middle East -- is also disrupted.
A choke point off Iran's coast, the Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf to the open ocean and global markets via the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. Likewise, Bab al-Mandab is a narrow passage for ships entering or exiting the Red Sea, whose Yemeni coastline is largely controlled by the Houthi rebels, an armed group backed by Iran.
A US-designated terrorist organization that has previously attacked international ships in the Bab al-Mandab Strait and the Red Sea, the Houthis -- one of Tehran's most potent allies -- have so far stayed out of the US-Israeli war on Iran. If they do enter the fray, there will be even more shock waves across energy markets, experts say.
"The Houthis' threat here is a real one," said Gregory Brew, a historian of Iranian oil and a senior analyst at the Eurasia Group.
The Bab al-Mandab Strait accounts for around 6 percent of the world's seaborne-traded oil, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
Saudi Arabia, the world's largest exporter of oil, has been redirecting millions of barrels of oil from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea via its East-West pipeline since the war began on February 28.
"There's a large number of tankers that are now making the Red Sea transit to pick up crude" from Saudi Arabia's Red Sea port of Yanbu, the country's only other oil-export route, said Brew. "This is very important for oil markets because it relieves pressure from the total shutting of the Persian Gulf."
"But if the Houthis attacked Yanbu and if they did enough to disrupt exports from the terminal, then you're looking at" a disruption of 7 millions barrel per day, he said.
‘Fingers On The Trigger'
The Houthis have not made a formal announcement of joining the Iran war. But their leader, Abdul Malik al-Houthi, has said the group was ready to strike any time it sees fit.
"Regarding military escalation and action, our fingers are on the trigger at any moment should developments warrant it," he said in a televised speech on March 5.
Iran's semiofficial Fars news agency said on March 12 that the Houthis were on full alert and could join Tehran's war effort. Fars warned that the involvement of the Houthis in the war could lead to the closure of the Bab al-Mandab Strait.
It is unclear if the Houthis' absence from the Iran war is deliberate or a sign of the group's current weakness.
US and Israeli air strikes have degraded the Houthis' fighting capabilities in recent years. The strikes were in response to the Houthis' missile and drone attacks on Israel and international shipping in the Red Sea. In May 2025, the group signed a cease-fire deal with the United States.
The Houthis are a key member of Iran's so-called axis of resistance, its loose network of proxies and militant groups against archfoe Israel. But the Houthis retain considerable autonomy and Iran has only limited control over the group's actions, experts say.
Another member of the axis, Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, has opened a second front in the war by firing rockets and drones into Israel. That has triggered a devastating military response from Israel, which has sent ground troops into Lebanon and waged a deadly aerial campaign.
"I think the Houthis' fiscal and military situation would discourage them from engaging in large-scale hostilities," said Brew. "The US and Israeli campaigns did real damage to the Houthis' position in Yemen. They're struggling to pay their fighters."
But Ahmed Nagi, a senior analyst for Yemen at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group, said the Houthis' decision to stay out of the war is a calculated move coordinated with Iran.
"Rather than activating all fronts at once, Iran appears to be managing escalation gradually and keeping the Houthis in reserve," said Nagi. "In this sense, the Houthis function as an important card that can be played later, especially given their ability to disrupt Red Sea shipping and create wider economic and security pressure."
Holding the Houthis back preserves that leverage, Nagi said.
"If the military pressure on Iran increases or the war enters a more critical phase, the Houthis could still jump in despite the potential costs on their domestic front in Yemen," he added. "Their current restraint therefore looks more like timing than reluctance to get involved."
- By RFE/RL
Trump Says US Doesn't Know If Iran Leader Is Alive, Calls For Support On Strait Of Hormuz
US President Donald Trump questioned whether Iran's new supreme leader is alive and pressed Washington's call for help securing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran has effectively shut down with attacks on vessels and threats of more.
Trump's comments at a White House event on March 16 underscored the uncertainties that persist in the Middle East and beyond more than two weeks after the United States and Israel began a massive campaign of air strikes against Iran.
"We don't know...if he's dead or not. I will say that nobody has seen him, which is unusual," Trump said of Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, whose selection to replace his father, killed on the first day of US-Israeli bombardment, was announced on March 9.
The younger Khamenei, 56, has not appeared in public, and US defense chief Pete Hegseth said last week that he was believed to have been wounded in the strikes.
"A lot of people are saying that he's badly disfigured. They're saying that he lost his leg...and he's been hurt very badly," Trump said. "Other people are saying he's dead."
Trump also asserted that Iran had expressed interest in negotiations, but suggested the country's leadership remains disorganized amid strikes he said have hit more than 7,000 targets across Iran, destroyed more than 100 of its naval vessels, and significantly reduced its ability to launch missiles and drones since February 28.
"We don't know who their leader is," Trump said. "We have people wanting to negotiate. We have no idea who they are."
Amid uncertainty over how long the war will last, Trump was later asked whether it would end this week and said, "I don't think so, but it will be soon; it won't be long."
However, he also said he has asked Beijing to delay his planned summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the beginning of April for "a month or so" due to the war.
"Because of the war I want to be here, I have to be here, I feel," Trump said.
Strait Of Hormuz
Trump, who had said in a social media post a day earlier that "many countries" would be sending warships to help restore shipping in Strait of Hormuz, said on March 16: "Some countries have already started to get there.
"It takes a little while to travel an ocean, but we have some that are really enthusiastic," he said, without naming any country. "Some are less than enthusiastic, and I assume some will not do it."
Iran has responded to the attacks by using attacks and the threat of more to hamper shipping in the strait, virtually halting passage into and out of the Persian Gulf through a bottleneck that normally handles about one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas.
Blockage of the strait has crimped supplies, sending oil prices higher and compounding concerns about the war's effects on the economy -- both globally and at the gas pump, where prices have also climbed higher.
Trump said he had spoken with French President Emmanuel Macron about forming a coalition to secure the strait, describing Macron's response as "an eight on a scale of zero to 10" and expressing confidence that France would assist.
He criticized Britain's reluctance to provide support and said he was "not happy" with Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who had said he wanted a "viable" option to reopen the strait. But Trump also said he believes the United Kingdom will participate.
A day earlier, he said that "hopefully" China, France, Japan, South Korea, the United Kingdom, and "others" would join. But the response on March 16, however, was somewhat muted.
Britain and Denmark appeared open to helping aid shipping in the Middle East, though with caveats on not being drawn into the broader conflict the United States and Israel are waging against Tehran.
"We are working with others to come up with a credible plan for the Strait of Hormuz to ensure that we can reopen shipping and passage through the strait," British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said.
The Wall Street Journal on March 15, citing unnamed US officials, reported the Trump administration may announce, as soon as this week, that multiple countries have agreed to form a coalition for escorting ships through the crucial waterway.
The report said the matter is still being discussed and that the mission could shift depending on battlefield conditions. It also said potential participants were debating when such a mission would begin -- during hostilities or only after a cease-fire.
European Union foreign ministers displayed no desire to expand an EU naval mission in the Middle East to the Strait of Hormuz, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said after discussions on March 16. The mission, which involves a just a few vessels was set up in 2024 to protect ships from attacks by Yemen's Houthi rebels in the Red Sea.
Ministers conveyed "a clear wish to strengthen this operation, but for the time being, there was no appetite in changing the mandate of the operation," Kallas said.
"While the Strait of Hormuz is at the center stage, the Red Sea also remains critical," she said.
Germany, Greece, and Italy, meanwhile, appeared to rule out participation altogether.
"What does Trump expect from a handful of European frigates that the powerful US Navy cannot do? This is not our war; we have not started it," German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said.
In an interview published on March 16 by The Financial Times, Trump said NATO faces a "very bad future" if member nations do not help the United States in Iran.
"It's only appropriate that people who are the beneficiaries of the strait will help to make sure that nothing bad happens there," the FT quoted Trump as saying.
Big Oil Warning
The Wall Street Journal also reported US oil executives had warned administration officials that the energy crisis caused by the Iran war is likely to worsen.
In a series of White House meetings and talks with Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, the CEOs of ExxonMobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips said disruptions to shipping in the strait "would continue to create volatility in global energy markets," the paper said, citing people familiar with the matter.
Should military forces begin escorting ships through the strait while hostilities were still under way, it would mark a dangerous new phase in the US-Israeli war on Iran.
Tehran has fired back at US Arab allies in the region and could target foreign navies in the strait, even though Trump and other US officials have said Iran's navy has been destroyed during the US-Israeli air strikes.
Despite being pounded by US and Israeli air power, Iran has remained defiant, launching missiles and drones against Israel and US Arab allies in the region.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi on March 15 disputed Trump's claim that Tehran was seeking to negotiate with Washington. Trump said he was not ready for talks because Tehran's "terms were not good enough."
"We have never asked for a cease-fire, and we have never asked even for negotiations," Araqchi told CBS TV. "We are ready to defend ourselves for as long as it takes."
At the United Nations on March 16, Iran vowed that it would not submit to "lawless aggression."
"The most urgent and fundamental human rights issue concerning Iran is the imminent threat to the lives of 90 million people whose lives are in immediate and grave danger under the shadow of reckless military aggression," said Ali Bahreini, Iran's ambassador to the UN in Geneva.
With reporting by RFE/RL Washington correspondent Alex Raufoglu, RFE/RL's Radio Farda, Reuters, and AFP
- By Ray Furlong
Interview: Iran's Use Of Chinese Doctrine And Tech Under The Spotlight
TEL AVIV -- The Iran war offers huge lessons for the effectiveness of Chinese military doctrine and hardware, both used by the Iranian military, according to Eran Ortal, a reserve Brigadier General in the Israel Defense Forces (IDF).
Speaking to RFE/RL from a location near Tel Aviv late on March 14, Ortal said Iranian tactics around the Strait of Hormuz were very similar to those that China would be expected to employ in a future conflict around Taiwan.
The US and Chinese military would be “taking notes” as the current conflict played out, he added.
Ortal was previously commander of the IDF’s Dado center, a military studies unit at the General Staff. He is now head of the military program at the Begin-Sadat center (BESA) at Bar-Ilan University and a visiting scholar at the American Foreign Policy Council (AFPC).
RFE/RL: Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz. Is there a military solution, and if so, what does it look like?
Eran Ortal: Well, that's the nature of asymmetric warfare. You can take out the Iranian fleet and the entire Iranian Navy, and the Fifth Fleet has done that. But the asymmetric capabilities, the speed boats, the unmanned boats, the mines and the coastal missiles will still be there. And this is a threat you cannot just totally remove. It's just like we have the anti-tank missile problem in Lebanon. You can take some of them out, you can have countermeasures, but they will always be able to snipe away.
You can protect the vessels going through the Hormuz Straits and you can win the war. That's basically the tactic and the strategy to maneuver around this problem. And I guess this is the American strategy.
RFE/RL: You're saying basically that they could protect shipping to some degree but there'd be no guarantee and that ships could be lost?
Ortal: Yes, but to a sufficient degree, to a good degree. But then again, it's not just a tactical question. And you can see the Iranians realize that. So, they went after the UAE oil facilities that go around the straits, directly to the Strait of Aden. A big chunk of the oil is going out through other ways, and they're trying to sabotage that too.
RFE/RL: The United States has decided to move forces from Asia. This includes 2,500 Marines, a naval assault ship. What do you think that's for? Is it maybe for Kharg Island?
I think this really can benefit the Americans with a learning experience viewing a possible future conflict in the South China Sea. I'm sure the American team is taking notes."
Ortal: The first meaning is deterrence: “We're all in, we can keep that on, and we can escalate.” The next thing is the operational intent. I guess it can mean that CENTCOM (US Central Command) might have some operations regarding the opening of the Hormuz Straits on the Iranian coastline. It can also mean that we can take the Kharg island.
And maybe another operational intent might be the 440 kilos of enriched uranium somewhere out there buried in one of the Iranian mountains that only a ground operation can remove if the Iranian regime is not taken out by the end of this war.
RFE/RL: This is the 450 kilograms of enriched uranium that Steve Witkoff, the US special envoy, spoke about. Let’s look at the air campaign. There have been some discussions in Israeli media that Iran could end up looking like Gaza, that there could be that level of destruction and civilian death. Do you think that’s a possibility?
Ortal: If that phrase means that Iran can be deeply hurt and much of its infrastructure is ruined, then yes. But Gaza is totally ruined not because of bombings from the air. It's totally ruined because it was a battle space prepared by Hamas to repel any future Israeli offensive. That is far from being the situation on the ground in Iran. That's a 90-million country. It's so much bigger than Gaza. So no, this kind of space cannot be as ruined as Gaza.
Chinese Tech And Tactics
RFE/RL: Turning to a different aspect of this, what military lessons do you think that Israel and the United States are learning from this current conflict? One thing that occurs to me is that Iran has a lot of Chinese military tech, for example.
Ortal: Iran's strategy is what the American military would call A2AD, anti-access area denial. It means that with long-range precision missiles and other kinds of capabilities, you deter the other side from coming into the theater. That's the anti-access part.
The area denial part is what you see in the Hormuz Straits. They cannot compete with the Americans about control of the sea and control of the air. But they can try to deny the free use of these two spaces from the Americans.
The Chinese strategy for its own future theater of war is very similar. They would push to Taiwan and then try to deter the Americans from coming in with that strategy exactly.
So, the fact that this is the strategy and the weapons used, the weapon systems the Iranians used are very much Chinese, Russian, and Iranian copies of Chinese and Russian capabilities, with the same tactics and the same command-and-control methods, I think this really can benefit the Americans with a learning experience viewing a possible future conflict in the South China Sea. I'm sure the American team is taking notes.
RFE/RL: I guess the caveat would be that the Chinese armed forces operate on a significantly higher level in terms of the equipment they've got and the organization, than the Iranian.
Ortal: Absolutely. And surely the Chinese are (also) taking notes. And, surely, they must be thinking, well, they are so much better than the Iranians, as you've just put it. But, on the other hand, they're also thinking to themselves, “this is my equipment. This is my doctrine.”
I think they must reflect on the current events, especially in the context of their 2027 readiness year that they have declared, as a target, to be ready for a future conflict around the Taiwan straits and islands.
RFE/RL: If we can bring it back to this conflict, if it ends with Iran weakened, but without regime change, where does that leave the Middle East, the balance of power? Does it mean, X months down the line, there’s another war?
Ortal: For the removal of this regime, we can only create more comfortable conditions for the Iranians to exploit. Whether that happens or not, stripping Iran of its military capabilities, of its protection system, in our region is essential. It's essential not just to stabilize this region, it's essential also in the larger frame like, as I've said, a future possible war between the United States and China.
The Americans wouldn't want Iran at the southern flank of the Pacific in this kind of scenario. So, stripping Iran from its capabilities is a good thing.
There is a risk because a wounded beast, a wounded revenge-seeking beast in this region is a dangerous thing. But still we have created a window of years for this weakened Iran to be dealt with in the worst-case scenario.
What About Iranian Civilians?
RFE/RL: I want to bring it back to Iran for the final question. What would you say to people in Iran who have been protesting against their government, the clerical authorities? They've been risking their lives. They've been shot at. They've lost loved ones that way, perhaps. And now they are absolutely terrified by this Israeli and US campaign.
Ortal: What I've heard from Iran, what we can see from Iran is those very same people cheering on the rooftops, begging for the offensive to go on until this regime is gone. I don't think the United States and Israel can responsibly promise anything to these people. But surely the goal of this war is common to that group and to the allies fighting this war in Iranian skies.
Bombs falling is a very scary thing. But as you know, missiles fall on Israeli cities and towns and communities and in the Gulf, and they fall indiscriminately. Their purpose is to kill civilians.
The American and Israeli bombings in Iran specifically target very intelligence-acquired targets. Some mistakes can happen and some collateral damage always occurs in war.
I'm sure and I can see that those Iranians that you speak of realize that because we can see them walking in the streets, sending pictures of the Basij post-points in Tehran, and begging for those posts to become next-day targets.
- By RFE/RL
Iran Says Oil Exports Continue After Kharg Strikes As Fire Hits UAE Oil Hub
Drone and missile attacks struck targets in Baghdad and the United Arab Emirates on March 14 as the war between Iran and a US-Israeli coalition continued to ripple across the Middle East, while Tehran said oil exports from its key Kharg Island terminal were continuing despite US strikes there.
A drone hit the US Embassy compound in Baghdad early on March 14, Iraqi security officials said, while smoke rose from the Emirati port of Fujairah after debris from an intercepted drone sparked a fire near energy facilities.
Amid the regional spillover, Iranian state media reported that crude exports from Kharg Island -- Iran’s main oil terminal -- were continuing normally despite US air strikes.
Iran’s official news agency IRNA cited a senior provincial official as saying crude exports were flowing uninterrupted from the strategic island terminal despite US President Donald Trump’s claims that US forces had "totally obliterated" Iranian military targets there.
The strike on Kharg Island marked a major development in the conflict, which began on February 28 after large-scale US-Israeli strikes on Iranian military and nuclear facilities.
Trump said on the Truth Social platform that US forces had carried out "one of the most powerful bombing raids in the history of the Middle East," targeting military installations on the island while avoiding its vital oil export terminals.
The US Central Command later said its forces had struck more than 90 Iranian military targets on Kharg Island while preserving its oil infrastructure.
Kharg Island handles about 90 percent of Iran's crude exports, making it one of the most strategically sensitive energy facilities in the region.
Trump warned that restraint could end if Iran interferes with shipping through the nearby Strait of Hormuz. He also said the US Navy would soon begin escorting vessels through the strait.
The narrow waterway normally carries about one-fifth of the world's seaborne oil supplies, but tanker traffic has largely halted since the conflict erupted.
Attacks Across The Middle East
At least 15 people were killed in a missile strike on a factory in Iran's central city of Isfahan on March 14, the Fars news agency, which is close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), reported.
The agency blamed the attack on the United States and Israel and said the factory produced heaters and refrigerators. It added that workers were inside the facility during the strike.
The US and Israeli militaries did not immediately comment on the incident.
At the same time, despite facing superior US and Israeli military power, Iran has continued retaliatory missile and drone strikes across the Middle East targeting energy facilities and military installations, according to regional officials.
On March 14, both Israel's Defense Forces (IDF) and Iranian state media reported that new missile attacks were launched from Iran toward Israeli territory.
"The public is asked to act responsibly and follow the instructions -- they save lives," the IDF said in a statement published on Telegram.
Elsewhere, smoke was seen rising from the Emirati port of Fujairah after debris from an intercepted drone sparked a fire near energy installations. Authorities said civil defense crews were working to contain the blaze.
Some oil-loading operations at the port -- one of the world’s largest refueling hubs outside the Strait of Hormuz -- were reportedly suspended after the incident.
Iran's military had earlier warned residents in the United Arab Emirates to stay away from port areas, saying they could become targets.
Since the start of the war, Iranian strikes have targeted energy installations across the Persian Gulf, including in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates.
Hamas Urges Restraint
Meanwhile, the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas issued a rare appeal urging Iran to refrain from targeting neighboring Gulf states, while backing what it called Tehran's right to defend itself against Israel and the United States.
"While affirming the right of the Islamic Republic of Iran to respond to this aggression by all available means in accordance with international norms and laws, the movement calls on the brothers in Iran to avoid targeting neighboring countries," Hamas said in a statement.
Hamas -- designated a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union -- also called on the international community to “work towards halting” the ongoing war immediately.
Missile Interceptions Across the Region
The conflict continues to spill across national borders.
A drone struck the US Embassy compound in Baghdad early on March 14, Iraqi security officials said, marking the second attack on the diplomatic mission since the war began.
Security officials said the drone hit a helicopter pad inside the heavily fortified embassy compound, though there were no immediate reports of casualties.
Explosions also rocked several other parts of Baghdad, with strikes targeting the Iran-allied Kataeb Hezbollah group, killing two members including a "key figure," security sources said.
It was not immediately clear who carried out the attacks.
Qatar said on March 14 that it intercepted two Iranian missiles over the capital, Doha, after explosions were heard in the city.
Turkey said NATO defenses intercepted a ballistic missile launched from Iran that briefly entered Turkish airspace.
Saudi Arabia reported shooting down dozens of drones launched toward the kingdom on March 13.
Energy Shock
The war has continued to disrupt energy supplies across the Middle East.
QatarEnergy has shut several liquefied natural gas facilities, leaving around 20 percent of global LNG supplies temporarily offline, according to industry estimates.
On March 14, Japan’s industry minister, Ryosei Akazawa, asked Australia to increase LNG production to stabilize global markets.
"Affordable and stable LNG supply from Australia is the lifeline of energy security in Japan and this region," Akazawa said.
Australia supplies about 40 percent of Japan's LNG imports.
Humanitarian Impact
Inside Iran, the humanitarian cost of the war appears to be mounting.
The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) says the first two weeks of the war have resulted in at least 4,765 casualties, including deaths and injuries.
The figure includes 1,298 civilian fatalities, among them at least 205 children, and 654 civilians injured, according to the monitoring group.
HRANA said 5,480 attacks were recorded across Iran since February 28, affecting all 31 provinces and at least 209 cities.
The rights group said its figures represent minimum confirmed numbers and could rise as verification continues.
The UN refugee agency (UNHCR) estimates that about 3.2 million people have been displaced inside Iran since the conflict began.
Iranian authorities say at least 56 cultural and historic sites have also been damaged, including the UNESCO-listed Golestan Palace in Tehran and parts of Naghsh-e Jahan Square in Isfahan.
Despite intense bombardment, Iran’s leadership has signaled it intends to continue fighting.
With reporting by RFE/RL's Radio Farda, Reuters, dpa, and AFP
- By Ray Furlong
In Israel's Medical Bunkers, Doctors Ready To Work 'Indefinitely'
TEL AVIV – After several twists down a concrete stairwell, a buzzing underground world is revealed. Ambulances unloading patients on gurneys, rows of field-hospital tents, workmen fixing overhead cables, and medical personnel in an array of uniforms.
This is the Sheba Medical Center, the largest hospital in the Middle East, with 11,000 employees, 1,700 doctors, and over 3,000 nurses. And most of it is functioning underground to stay out of reach of Iranian ballistic missiles.
“This place is not a field hospital. This is the hospital. It is just subterranean,” Yardena Koppel, a pediatric doctor, told RFE/RL.
Rattling off a list of departments that are, she said, fully functioning, Koppel added: “Each area is well-oiled and functions within itself. It's something really incredible, something I've never seen before.”
The hospital has moved some operations below ground in Israel’s previous conflicts, but never on such a scale. This location, two stories below ground, is just one of five containing hundreds of patients -- while some sections of the hospital are deemed well-protected enough to keep working in their usual places.
Lessons From Last Iran War
A hospital spokesman, who declined to be named, told RFE/RL that the 12-day Israeli-US war with Iran in June last year had been a key lesson. At that time, the hospital had two underground locations.
“After what happened in June, we realized that the missiles are much more dangerous, we started spreading even more,” he said, adding the whole move took about 36 hours. Plans to get ready appear to have begun before Israel launched surprise air strikes on Iran on February 28.
“When the military has an idea that something is in the works, they will tell us like a month in advance to start getting your act together,” the spokesman said.
Asked if this means that the hospital management knew military action was being prepared as early as the end of January, the spokesman would not be drawn.
“It wasn't a surprise to us. We saw the incremental...” he said, his answer tailing off, before adding: “Within a few moments that we knew that something was going to happen, we were told to move. Everything is done in military fashion. We have a list of who gets the priority, who goes down first.”
On a tour of the facilities, Koppel led us through pediatrics, adult oncology, ophthalmology, and cardiology. Patients lay screened from the bustle behind white curtains. On a monitor, a doctor examined a grainy image of a beating heart.
Koppel said the hospital has also had “war casualties.” This included two men who were badly injured by shrapnel a few days earlier.
“One of those patients had to have his chest opened, actually in this area, and unfortunately did not survive. The other patient is currently in ICU (also below ground) and is in critical condition,” she said.
“In this war, we have assumed that we are in this indefinitely and we simply cannot perform the procedures that we were doing above ground with the frequency of all the air raids with the same level of safety,” Koppel added.
In Israel, there are usually several alerts within each 24-hour period, occurring both day and night. Some 900 people have been injured in incidents related to the conflict since February 28, according to emergency services. Most were injured while making their way to shelters. Twelve civilians have died, along with two Israeli soldiers in Lebanon.
Israeli civilian casualties are relatively low thanks to the country’s advanced air defense capabilities and extensive network of shelters.
More Casualties In Iran
In Iran the death toll and the number of injured appear significantly higher, although getting a reliable picture is difficult.
US-based monitoring organization HRANA has counted nearly 1,300 civilian deaths in Iran. The Iranian authorities say more than 15,000 people have been injured, but this information cannot be independently confirmed.
The World Health Organization (WHO) says it has verified 18 attacks on health facilities in Iran since the beginning of US and Israeli air strikes.
"Blasts near the Motahari Hospital, in Iran’s capital, Tehran, reportedly damaged parts of the health facility and forced the evacuation of patients and health staff," WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus wrote on social media, also listing other health facilities reportedly struck.
“The United States and Israeli regime continue their massive attack against Iran and the Iranian people without pause, day and night,” Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations, Amir Saeid Iravana, said in New York on March 10.
“They are deliberately and discriminately targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure across my country,” he added, claiming 32 “medical and pharmaceutical facilities” had been hit.
RFE/RL is unable to do its own on-the-ground reporting from within Iran, because the authorities there don’t allow it to operate in the country.
US and Israeli officials have repeatedly stated that their forces exclusively target military and security infrastructure. However, US officials are investigating whether a US missile accidentally hit a school on February 28, killing at least 175 people, including 168 children, according to local officials.
- By Ray Furlong
Israel's Second War: The Fight Against Iran’s Proxy, Hezbollah
TEL AVIV -- As the US-Israeli war with Iran continues, a second front against Hezbollah has led to the displacement of some 800,000 people fleeing deadly Israeli air strikes in Lebanon, while a succession of rocket and drone attacks has rained down on Israel.
Hezbollah, regarded as a terrorist organization by both Israel and the United States, is Iran’s strongest remaining proxy on Israel’s borders. It attacked Israel on March 2, after Israel began air strikes on Iran on February 28.
The response by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has been massive -- and the conflict with Hezbollah is an integral part of Israel’s wider war against Iran itself.
“The campaign against Iran was meant to deal with our very existence in the region, and Hezbollah is part of that,” Sarit Zehavi, head of Alma, a think tank based in northern Israel, told RFE/RL on March 13. “We are under constant attacks 24/7 here.”
Israel and Hezbollah have fought each other in several armed conflicts going back to the 1980s. Before the last conflict, which ended in 2024, Israel said the group had an arsenal of some 125,000-150,000 rockets – although estimates varied.
“When the war ended, the IDF itself said that they degraded the amount of rockets in the hands of Hezbollah by 80 percent. So, if you calculate, you will find out that they still had back then about 25,000 rockets,” said Zehavi, who worked in military intelligence during a 15-year IDF career.
“Now, there was an effort in the past year or so by Hezbollah to recover, either by smuggling or manufacturing in Lebanon, of different types of weapons, from anti-tank missiles, rockets, drones. Drones was the main effort,” she added.
The Israeli authorities see the war with Hezbollah in similar terms to the war with Iran: a unique opportunity to deliver a strategic defeat to a decades-long foe. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has called on Lebanon’s government to disarm the group, warning on March 12 that it is “playing with fire” if it does not. A day later, Defense Minister Israel Katz followed up, saying the destruction of Lebanese infrastructure would be the “price” of not disarming Hezbollah.
A 'Disproportionate' Response
The same day, the World Health Organization (WHO) said some 630 people had been killed and 1,500 injured in Lebanon since the beginning of the latest fighting. Israel says many of these are “terrorists.” Israeli air strikes have caused huge explosions in Beirut and across the south of the country. It is also conducting limited ground operations and Netanyahu has hinted of a larger-scale ground incursion.
“Israel is not simply responding to Hezbollah attacks, that's certain. Its military campaign appears designed to eliminate Hezbollah as a political and social force entirely, not just disarm it,” Yezid Sayigh, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, told RFE/RL.
“This means deliberate displacement of an entire community…and disproportionate firepower resulting in indiscriminate harm to the civilian population,” added Sayigh, who was a negotiator in the Palestinian delegation to peace talks with Israel between 1991 and 2002.
Israeli demands that the Lebanese government take action against Hezbollah are not new, but this time Beirut’s response has broken new ground. On March 2, it declared the group’s military activities illegal -- an unprecedented step.
Israel is now demanding practical steps to follow through on this. Sayigh said this would not be easy for the Lebanese government. “It is under US pressure, in addition to constant Israeli military attacks, to take more direct action to disarm Hezbollah. But it fears that using force creates conditions for civil strife, if not civil war,” he said.
In a televised address on March 12, Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam stressed that he was hoping there might be scope for diplomacy.
"It is a war we did not want. On the contrary, we are working day and night to bring it to an end," he said. But neither Israel nor Hezbollah have indicated any intention to stop fighting for now.
What Comes Next
“Hezbollah’s strategy, likely in coordination with Iran, appears to be to inflict as much pain on Israel for as long as possible in the hope that a settlement is reached between the warring parties that essentially leaves the regime in Tehran in place,” wrote Nicholas Blanford, a Beirut-based defense and security consultant, on March 11.
Israeli media have been reporting for days now that a larger ground operation in Lebanon is coming soon. Analysts that RFE/RL spoke to said that it was not to be ruled out.
“The IDF has attacked more than 800 times in Lebanon. 800 attacks. This is what the IDF published yesterday. I don't know about today. That's a lot of targets,” said Zehavi. “And you see the damage. And they have a lot more [to target]. In order to create an impactful achievement, we will have to do a...military incursion.”
On March 8, Israel said two of its soldiers were killed in Lebanon in a Hezbollah attack -- the only IDF fatalities so far since February 28. Previous ground operations in Lebanon have involved many more Israeli military casualties.
“At the end, Hezbollah -- Lebanese, Arabic-speaking Shi’ites, are the locals. There's always an advantage in knowing the terrain,” Miri Eisin, a former deputy head of the Israeli military's Combat Intelligence Corps, told RFE/RL.
“We're going into a very challenging topographical area, a very hilly area. All of these factors are going to be a challenge. That doesn't mean you don't do it,” she added.
Whether there is an expanded ground war or not, many observers expect Hezbollah to be further weakened by the current conflict. Beirut-based analyst Sayigh said the Lebanese government’s new position on Hezbollah’s activities would have a long-term impact.
But the crucial factor may be the outcome of the war with Iran, which has bankrolled Hezbollah for decades and remains its paymaster. While Israel has continued to say the aim of the war is regime change in Tehran, the US position has placed greater emphasis on degrading Iran’s capabilities.
“Although weakened, Hezbollah's fate probably depends on how the Trump administration chooses to end its war with Iran -- some kind of deal could lead to an outcome in Lebanon that falls short of Israel's maximal aims,” said Sayigh.
- By Nastasia Arabuli and
- Ulviyya Asadzade
Investigation Highlights Iran's Growing Religious Footprint In Georgia
Georgia’s State Security Service has launched an investigation into claims that Iran is expanding its influence in the country through Georgian Shi'ite communities, growing concerns about Tehran’s religious and political outreach in the South Caucasus country.
The probe follows a report by the Hudson Institute, a Washington-based think tank, and public statements by opposition politicians alleging Iran has been building networks of influence in Georgia, particularly among ethnic Azerbaijani Shi’ite communities in the southeastern Kvemo Kartli region.
It also comes at a time when Georgia’s foreign policy orientation has become increasingly contested. Once Washington’s closest ally in the South Caucasus, Georgia, under its current government, has increasingly distanced itself from the West while strengthening ties with Russia, China, and Iran.
Iran's intent, according to the Hudson Institute report published March 4, is to "groom the next generation of Georgian Shi'ite leaders, foster loyalty to Iran's political theology, and normalize anti-American narratives."
US Representative Joe Wilson of South Carolina, citing a Hudson Institute statement, accused Georgia’s ruling Georgian Dream party of being "anti-American," alleging ties with Iran and attempts to silence experts exposing the influence.
Economic ties between Georgia and Iran have also drawn scrutiny.
Nearly 13,000 Iranian-linked companies are registered in Georgia, many associated with only a handful of addresses -- a pattern analysts say raises concerns about possible sanctions evasion.
Some investigators say Iranian firms may be using Georgia as a transit point to bypass international restrictions, with certain companies reportedly linked to Iran’s armed forces.
Georgia’s State Security Service told RFE/RL the claims about Iran’s outreach contradict available evidence and said authorities are examining the motivations behind the accusations.
Speaking to journalists, Tbilisi Mayor Kakhi Kaladze -- a top official in the ruling Georgian Dream party -- accused former Defense Minister Tina Khidasheli of committing a “traitorous act” for recent statements on the issue.
Kaladze also lashed out at former MP Giorgi Kandelaki, and co-author of the Hudson Institute report titled “Georgia’s Iranian Turn: Tehran’s Rapid Expansion of Influence in a Once-Committed US Ally.”
The Hudson Institute said in a statement that it condemned the government’s investigation into the authors of the report, which it said should serve as a wake-up call for Georgian authorities.
"This report should serve as a wake-up call -- especially at a time when Iran serves as a destabilizing force in the region," John Waters, the think tank’s president, said in a statement on March 9.
"Rather than investigating the authors of the report, Georgian authorities should be concerned by its findings, which rely overwhelmingly on publicly accessible information that the authorities should already be aware of," he added.
Shi’ite activism in Georgia dates back to the late 1980s when Soviet borders opened and Muslim populations in the Soviet republics began reconnecting with religious institutions abroad, according to Aleksandre Kvakhadze, a researcher specializing in the Caucasus and terrorism at the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies (GFSIS).
“Amid tightened religious policies in Azerbaijan, Georgia offered a much freer environment with fewer restrictions, allowing Shi’ite groups to extend their influence more widely,” she said.
Much of the focus of public debate in Georgia has centered on activities linked to Al-Mustafa International University, a global network of Shi’ite seminaries headquartered in the Iranian city of Qom.
The institution was sanctioned by the United States last year amid allegations that it recruited Afghan and Pakistani students to fight in the Syrian conflict.
The university operates in several Georgian cities with large Azerbaijani populations.
RFE/RL was unable to trace the full network of the university’s alumni in Georgia, though some former students are believed by analysts to work as mosque leaders, lecturers, or cultural activists.
“Among the Shi'a in Georgia, there is sympathy for Iran. It would not be objective to deny that,” Oktay Kazimov, a former teacher at Al-Mustafa, told RFE/RL.
The issue has taken on extra life with the launching of the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran.
Many Iranian Shi'a have reacted sharply to the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during the initial wave of air strikes on February 28.
Khamenei’s death prompted a group of demonstrators to gather in front of the Iranian Embassy in Tbilisi, holding images of the slain leader and chanting: “I am ready to carry out your order.”
Irakli Kobakhidze, head of the Georgian Dream government, who is known for his anti-Western statements, compared the gathering to ongoing pro-European demonstrations outside the Georgian parliament.
“A hundred people gather in front of the Parliament of Georgia and make statements against the Georgian state. All of this needs to be managed,” he said.
Public displays of pro-Iranian sentiment have also appeared in parts of Kvemo Kartli, a region south of Tbilisi bordering Azerbaijan and Armenia and home to much of Georgia’s ethnic Azerbaijani population.
“Iranians have long been present in Kvemo Kartli, but under the Georgian Dream their presence has grown and become more visible,” Georgian political analyst Giorgi Sanikadze told RFE/RL.
The pulse of Georgia’s Shi’ite community can often be taken at the Imam Reza Mosque in the city of Marneuli. The mosque is a major Shi'ite religious site and community hub for the local Azerbaijani population.
Orchestrating Violence
The mosque made headlines in February when it issued a statement accusing the United States and its Western allies of orchestrating violence across the Middle East. It blamed Washington and Israel for conflicts in Syria, Iraq, Gaza, Afghanistan, and Yemen, while describing those killed in recent protests in Iran as “rebels against the Islamic order.”
“I can also see Iranian influence increasing in Kvemo Kartli among Azerbaijanis, but it is not as high as some Georgian politicians and civil-society leaders claim. It is limited to a small group of people,” Rabil Ismail, a civic activist from Kvemo Kartli, told RFE/RL.
“At the same time, I see hate speech against Azerbaijanis increasing on social media. This is a sensitive issue and could harm peace among Georgia’s communities. As a community, we do not want any country -- including Iran --interfering in Kvemo Kartli,” he added.
Recent security incidents have also drawn attention to possible Iranian-linked activities connected to Georgia.
On March 2, Greek police detained a 36-year-old Georgian citizen at Athens airport on suspicion of spying for Iran. While authorities have released few details, a Georgian media outlet reported that the suspect is an ethnic Azerbaijani from Georgia. RFE/RL’s Georgian Service could not verify the claim.
Experts also look back to last year when Georgian-born crime boss Polad Omarov was found guilty of participating in a 2022 plot to assassinate US-based Iranian journalist Masih Alinejad in New York.
RFE/RL’s Georgian Service has reported that Omarov is ethnic Azerbaijani.
- By Ray Furlong and
- RFE/RL
Israeli President Calls For 'Hitting Iran Hard' As Attacks Continue On Both Sides
The exchange of fire between Iran and Israel continued on March 12, with strikes hitting civilian sites in central Israel as its military claimed to have targeted Basij militia checkpoints in Tehran. Speaking to RFE/RL, Israeli President Isaac Herzog said his country aims to keep up the intense campaign to "remove [Iran's] capabilities" to wage war.
- By Kian Sharifi
Iran's Navy Is Largely Gone. The Threat To The Strait Of Hormuz Is Not.
The United States and Israel have largely destroyed Iran's conventional naval fleet in a massive bombing campaign since February 28.
But Tehran's threat to the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important shipping routes, has not diminished. Iran has effectively closed the narrow waterway, through which 20 percent of the world's oil supplies flow, by using asymmetric warfare tactics.
Besides Iran's conventional navy, the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), the elite branch of the country's armed forces, has its own naval units that continue to hound and attack shipping in the Persian Gulf.
"While I think the Iranian Navy is largely combat ineffective at this point, the IRGC navy remains able to harass shipping," said Sascha Bruchmann, a military and security affairs analyst at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies.
"That maintains a specter of danger that most civilian shipping lines and insurers will find unacceptable," Bruchmann added.
Decimated Navy
The United States has decimated Iran's conventional navy since February 28.
The US military said on March 11 that it had sunk 60 Iranian vessels. Satellite imagery and publicly disclosed military footage suggest most of Iran's naval fleet has been damaged or destroyed.
Iran's two Mowj-class warships, its Alvand-class frigate Sabalan, and the forward-basing ship Makran -- which gave Tehran a limited long-range power projection capability -- are gone. So, too, are hundreds of the fast-attack boats that formed the backbone of the IRGC's naval asymmetric strategy in the Persian Gulf.
On March 4, a US submarine torpedoed Iran's IRIS Dena warship in the Indian Ocean near Sri Lanka as the frigate returned from multinational exercises, with roughly 180 personnel onboard.
It was the first confirmed wartime submarine sinking of a surface warship since Britain sank the Argentine cruiser General Belgrano in 1982 during the Falklands War, highlighting the reach and intent of the American campaign.
But those losses have not reduced Iran's threat to shipping in the Persian Gulf, experts say.
Iranian projectiles struck the Mayuree Naree, a Thai-flagged civilian tanker, on March 11 while it attempted to transit the strait. Photographs from the crew's evacuation showed damage just above the waterline near the stern, a typical signature of explosive-laden surface drones that strike at waterline level.
Iran's Naval Doctrine
Iran changed its naval doctrine after the US Navy sank around half of Iran's conventional fleet in a single day in April 1988. The attack was in retaliation for the mining of a US warship days earlier.
Experts say the incident showed Tehran that symmetrical naval warfare against a superpower was a losing proposition.
What followed was a decades-long pivot toward asymmetric tools such as fast-attack boats, shore-based anti-ship missiles, naval mines, midget submarines, and more recently, unmanned surface vessels (USVs) configured as floating bombs.
Iran institutionalized this split into two separate navies, symmetrical and asymmetrical forces.
The Iranian Navy, as part of the regular military, maintained a conventional fleet for prestige and occasional long-range deployments, including a transatlantic voyage as recently as 2021.
But the real warfighting instrument was the IRGC's navy units, which were purpose-built for harassment and denial operations in the Persian Gulf's shallow, island-cluttered waters, where geography compresses distances and partly neutralizes the advantages of a superior conventional force.
Over the years, the IRGC's naval force has released footage of underground storage facilities housing fast-attack boats, some likely configured as unmanned surface vessels or suicide boats.
It is a tactic used by Ukraine against the Russia's Black Sea Fleet, although experts say the Iranian variants are less technically sophisticated.
"I doubt they could inflict the same kind of damage on US warships that Ukraine could on Russian ships," Bruchmann said, adding the more plausible target is civilian shipping that supplies global oil markets.
US Central Command said on March 10 that it had sunk 16 Iranian mine-laying ships.
But Mohammad Farsi, a former Iranian naval officer, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda that the focus on mines misses the point.
"Any vessel can do it, even the IRGC speedboats currently in the Persian Gulf," he said.
"In my opinion as a naval officer, there is no need for Iran to plant mines in the mouth of the Persian Gulf right now. The reason ships aren't passing through is that companies know the probability of being hit is extremely high."
He pointed to Iranian drone capabilities near the islands of Qeshm, Hengam, and Larak -- positioned close to the main shipping lanes -- as the more immediate threat.
Hannah Kaviani of RFE/RL's Radio Farda contributed to this report.
- By RFE/RL's Radio Farda and
- Kian Sharifi
Iran To Keep Strait Of Hormuz Closed, Supreme Leader Khamenei Says In First Public Comments
Iran must continue to keep a key Gulf shipping lane closed, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said in his first public comments since being named to succeed his late father, hours after several vessels were targeted in strikes as Tehran looks to choke off oil supplies from leaving the Middle East.
In the statement, which was read out on Iranian state TV by a female presenter on March 12, Khamenei said Iran will continue to seek to strike targets where "the enemy has little experience and will be severely vulnerable."
In response, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed the continuation of the US-Israeli military campaign against Tehran and threatened the newly appointed Iranian leader.
"I wouldn't issue life insurance policies on any of the leaders of the terrorist organization," Netanyahu said in his first news conference since the beginning of the war, adding that he wouldn't provide any details on Tel Aviv's military plans.
However, he confirmed that, besides the main military goals -- to stop Iran from moving its nuclear and ballistic weapons projects underground -- Israel was also aimed at "creating, for the Iranian people, the conditions to bring down this regime."
Iran has been launching air and water strikes at targets across the Middle East in retaliation for US and Israeli attacks that started on February 28, the day his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in one such bombardment.
The younger Khamenei was reportedly injured in that attack and had not been seen or heard from since. He was appointed as supreme leader on March 8.
In targeting the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has tied up shipping on a waterway that accounts for around a fifth of all oil and gas transportation in the world.
Two tankers were ablaze in a port in the Persian Gulf on March 12 after they were hit by what are suspected to have been Iranian explosive-laden vessels, an escalation in attacks that have choked much of the oil leaving the Middle East and defying US President Donald Trump's claim a day earlier that the United States has "won" the war, which he said now just needs finishing.
Oil prices surged more than 9 percent to above $100 a barrel after the reports of further attacks on ships in the Persian Gulf, in what the International Energy Agency has called the biggest disruption to global energy supplies in history.
Khamenei said Iran would "extract reparations" from those states that attack it, and if that is not possible, "We will destroy an equivalent amount of their assets."
In a bid to quell market jitters, Trump has said the surge in oil prices will be short-lived, but he has yet to explain how the war will end or present a plan to reopen the blockaded strait.
"You never like to say too early you won. We won," Trump told a campaign-style rally in Hebron, Kentucky, on March 11. "In the first hour it was over."
While the US and Israeli air attacks had "virtually destroyed Iran," he added that "we got to finish the job."
Trump has said the US Navy may be brought in to help escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, but US Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNBC in an interview on March 12 that it may take several more weeks before that is possible.
"It'll happen relatively soon, but it can't happen now," Wright said in the March 12 interview. "We're simply not ready. All of our military assets right now are focused on destroying Iran's offensive capabilities and the manufacturing industry that supplies their offensive capabilities."
In comments to Sky News the same day, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said it was always his belief "that as soon as it is militarily possible, the US Navy, perhaps with an international coalition, will be escorting vessels through" the strait.
- By Frud Bezhan
US-Israeli Bombing Of Iran's Energy Infrastructure Marks New Escalation In War
The United States and Israel are bombing Iran's critical energy and civilian infrastructure, marking an escalation in the military campaign against the Islamic republic, experts say.
Israel has struck at least four oil depots around Tehran, Iran's sprawling capital, since the joint US-Israeli air campaign began on February 28. Other civilian infrastructure, including a commercial airport and a water treatment plant, has also been hit.
"The aim of the US-Israeli attacks on Iran's economic and energy infrastructure is not primarily economic," said Steve H. Hanke, a professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore. "It is strategic. The objective is to weaken Iran to the point of regime collapse or state fragmentation."
Iran has also targeted critical energy facilities and civilian infrastructure in the Persian Gulf, which has wreaked havoc and sent global energy prices soaring. Tehran's strategy, experts say, is to raise the economic costs of the war for the United States and its allies in the region.
The United States has rejected Tehran's accusation that it is deliberately targeting Iran's civilian infrastructure. Washington has attempted to distance itself from the Israeli attacks on Iran's petroleum facilities. But experts warn that the attacks could trigger a costly tit-for-tat cycle of retaliation.
"The most likely consequence is escalation," said Hanke, a former economic adviser to the administration of US President Ronald Reagan. "Iran's strategy is deterrence. It cannot match US-Israeli firepower, but it can raise the cost of the war. That means retaliatory strikes on energy infrastructure and other economic targets across the region are certain."
Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf warned on March 10 that Iran will take "an eye for an eye" approach. If Iranian infrastructure is targeted, he said, Tehran will respond in kind, with experts suggesting the infrastructure war could expand.
'Economic Warfare'
Israeli warplanes hit four oil storage facilities and a fuel logistics site in and around Tehran on March 8. The installations served the approximately 10 million people living in the city.
Tehran was draped in toxic black smoke for days as the oil facilities burned. The authorities issued urgent health warnings and experts warned of an environmental disaster.
The attacks triggered outrage among some Iranians. Axios reported on March 10 that the Trump administration asked Israel not to carry out further strikes on energy facilities in Iran, particularly oil infrastructure.
The repercussions of Israel's attacks are "potential shortages for fuel and gasoline, which could have ripple effects by causing food shortages, inflation, and power blackouts" in Iran, said Sina Azodi, an expert of Iran's military and history and an assistant professor of Middle East politics at George Washington University.
The heavy US-Israel bombardment has also damaged or destroyed seaports and commercial airports, including Tehran's Mehrabad International Airport, one of two that serve the capital. Israeli air strikes on March 7 set the Tehran airport on fire.
On the same day, Iran accused the United States of attacking a desalination plant on the island of Qeshm in the Persian Gulf. CENTCOM spokesperson US Navy Captain Tim Hawkins rejected the accusation and said, "US forces do not target civilians -- period."
Tehran hit a water treatment plant in Bahrain the following day.
On March 10, US-Israeli air strikes struck Tehran's Resalat highway, one of the biggest in the city. The attack "resulted in the killing and injury of a large number of civilians," according to US-based rights group HRANA .
Over 1,200 civilians have been killed in Iran since the war began, according to HRANA. Homes, public buildings, and cultural sites have been damaged or destroyed in the aerial bombardment, angering some Iranians.
Azadi said Iran, the United States, and Israel were engaged in "economic warfare." The US-Israeli aim, he said, was to "break the morale of the Iranian population by punishing them and making their lives harder."
"They also aim to weaken and diminish Iran's economic output to stop it from being able to reinvest in its defense infrastructure," he said.
As part of that aim, experts said, the United States could attempt to seize or target the oil terminals in Iran's Kharg Island , which handles around 90 percent of all Iranian oil exports, in a move that could cut off the revenues that sustain Tehran's sanctions-hit economy.
US media reports say the Trump administration has discussed capturing the tiny island in the Persian Gulf.
Azodi said Iran will try to intensify the infrastructure war "as much as it can, given its vulnerabilities and military weakness compared to the US and Israel."
"Both sides will continue to escalate with the aim of forcing the other side to ‘say uncle' first," he added.
Georgian Sailors Survive Iranian Attack On Ship Off Iraqi Coast
All 23 Georgian crew members aboard a Malta-flagged tanker struck by Iran off the Iraqi coast have been rescued, a relative of one of the sailors told RFE/RL's Georgian Service.
Two oil tankers sailing in Iraqi territorial waters were struck in the Persian Gulf early on March 12, with sailors describing a coordinated attack involving drones and explosive devices.
Iranian state television confirmed that Iranian forces had attacked the tankers, reporting that at least one vessel was hit by an Iranian unmanned vehicle from the water.
One of the targeted ships was the Malta-flagged tanker Zefyros, which included the 23 Georgian sailors, while the second vessel that was hit, Safesea Vishnu, was sailing under a Marshall Islands flag and was chartered by an Iraqi company, according to the Iraqi State Organization for Marketing of Oil (SOMO).
"I spoke with him around midnight and everything was fine," Nincho Surmanidze, the wife of Georgian sailor Irakli Jashi, told RFE/RL. "Then he called me again around 2:30 a.m. and quickly said: 'We're all OK, everyone survived.'"
Later in the morning, she said, her husband told her a drone had struck their tanker, triggering a fire that heavily damaged the vessel.
"He said everything burned," Surmanidze added.
According to Iraqi authorities, 38 sailors were rescued from the tankers targeted in the attack and were transported to an Iraqi port.
At least one sailor was killed, Iraqi officials said, though the victim's identity and nationality have not been disclosed.
Surmanidze said her husband had been working aboard the vessel for about six months and had been scheduled to return to Georgia on March 10 before the ship was delayed due to the conflict in the Middle East.
"If there had been no war in the region, he would have already been home," she said.
The attack occurred amid rising tensions across the region as Iran retaliates for ongoing US and Israeli air strikes.
Much of Tehran's campaign appears aimed at disrupting global energy markets, especially hitting targets around the Gulf, including vessels, raising security risks for commercial shipping routes that are vital to the oil and gas industries.
Some analysts say the reported use of drones, remotely detonated explosives, and unmanned vehicles in the water suggests a sophisticated maritime strike designed to damage tankers while limiting direct confrontation.
Officials at Georgia's Maritime Transport Agency and the Foreign Ministry were not available to comment when contacted by RFE/RL's Georgian Service, saying information about the incident would be released later.
- By Ray Furlong
Interview: Amid Ongoing Public Absence, Is Iran's New Leader In Control?
TEL AVIV -- Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is probably in charge despite making no public appearance since being appointed on March 8 and amid reports that he was injured in an air strike, according to a leading Israeli expert on Iran.
Speaking to RFE/RL in Tel Aviv on March 11, Raz Zimmt, who is head of the Iran program at the Institute for National Security Studies, said the question was whether Khamenei would be capable of maintaining "daily contacts with the political and security establishment" to preserve "the ability of the regime to function."
RFE/RL: What's your assessment of where we are now in the war?
Raz Zimmt: It's very clear that both Israel and the United States have achieved very significant military achievements in their attempts to degrade as much as possible Iran's strategic capabilities.
If you look at the ballistic missiles capacities, if you look at the aerial defense system, even some of the remains of the nuclear program in Iran, and certainly the attempts to undermine or to degrade Iran's security forces, the [Islamic] Revolutionary Guards [Corps], the Basij, the Iranian Navy, all is going quite well.
The question is whether those achievements will allow to achieve the main objectives, which are, in my view: one, to degrade Iran's strategic capabilities to a point where it's going to be very difficult to reconstitute its nuclear program and its ballistic missiles, just as it tried to do after the 12-day war in June.
And then the second objective would be to weaken and undermine the Iranian regime.
RFE/RL: OK, let's take those one at a time, starting with the effective degradation of Iran's military and security capabilities.
Zimmt: When it comes to the missiles, during the 12-day war in June, Israel managed to destroy a lot of the launchers and then to block the entrances and the exits to the so-called underground compounds used to store them.
If that happens again, it won't make any real difference because at the end of the day Iran will be able to restore the production of its missiles -- unless the United States is capable of targeting and hitting the underground compounds and, more importantly, to hit the production lines.
Concerning the nuclear issue, if the war ends with 450 kilograms of enriched uranium to 60 percent (eds: estimates of how much Iran has vary; this figure was given by US envoy Steve Witkoff), if this fissile material still is left in Iran, it's going to be a very disturbing development because Iran can still have the technical know-how and the capability to break out [and develop nuclear weapons].
RFE/RL: Let's just look at the new leadership emerging in Iran. There's still no sign of Khamenei Jr.
Zimmt: Right. There were some reports that he was actually injured during the first hours of the attack, but he was nominated by the Assembly of Experts, so we should assume he's capable of fulfilling his task, at least.
RFE/RL: So you wouldn't read too much into the fact that we haven't seen him anywhere?
Zimmt: No, it's very obvious that the Iranian regime is fighting for its survival. They know very clearly that Mojtaba Khamenei might become the next target by either Israel or the United States, and so he should hide. The question in my view is whether he's capable of reaching out and continue his daily contacts with the political and security establishment inside Iran, because that's what matters, whether he's capable of...preserving a kind of continuity in preserving the ability of the regime to function.
RFE/RL: Can the regime survive?
Zimmt: Any kind of regime change in Iran -- and we certainly hope for regime change in Iran -- depends in my view on three main conditions. One is to see millions of Iranians in the streets. because otherwise it's going to be almost impossible, in my view, to topple the Iranian regime only through aerial strikes from above.
The second condition would be to see some kind of coalition between different sections and parts of the Iranian society -- students, women, bus drivers, workers, ethnic minorities -- working together.
Last but not least, I would say one condition for a regime change in Iran is to see some cracks and divisions and perhaps defections from within the security apparatus inside Iran. And that's something which is going to be very difficult to achieve because, as we know, the Revolutionary Guards [and] the Basij are very much dependent on the Islamic republic. They know that if the regime collapsed, they might pay the consequences for that. And so they will fight until the end, in my view.
RFE/RL: So no cracks so far?
Zimmt: We might see some weakening of the command and control networks inside Iran. We might see some divisions between different sections of the military and political establishment inside Iran.
But certainly we have not seen any kind of losing control. Just yesterday I looked at information about checkpoints established by the Basij, by the law enforcement forces in Iran. We still have reports about the intelligence agencies in Iran arresting people for treason or for cooperating with Israel.
RFE/RL: If the regime does survive, what's it going to be like?
Zimmt: I'm afraid that if their regime survives, especially if it's under Mojtaba Khamenei, we might see an even more hard-line state, more committed to not just continuing the core strategic goals of Iran -- meaning its missiles, nuclear, regional ambitions -- but we might also see a regime which might take more risks in comparison to [that under] Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
For example, we know that throughout the years under Khamenei, Iran was certainly moving forward toward reaching a nuclear threshold state, but Khamenei didn't make a decision to break out.
My concern is that someone like Mojtaba might take the risk of breaking out, especially after realizing that this might be the ultimate deterrence vis-a-vis Israel and the United States.
RFE/RL: If the clerical establishment does remain in control, what will this mean for relations with the Gulf states?
Zimmt: They will realize that if this regime is still intact, they will have to live with that. And President Trump is not going to be here forever. I'm not sure if they can trust the Israelis, because some of them at least consider Israel to be a destabilizing force.
Their conclusion might be: We might have to work with Israel, with the United States. To strengthen our defense systems vis-a-vis the Iranians, we should try to find a way to accommodate with Iran because Iran is here to stay, because the Islamic republic might be here to stay.