Over the past week, European nations largely represented by France, Germany, and the United Kingdom have tried their best to engage in talks between the United States, Ukraine, and Russia.
There were a number of rather successful high-level meetings in Paris on April 17 and one in London six days later that ended up being politically downgraded after Secretary of State Marco Rubio and special envoy Steve Witkoff pulled out.
The snub reportedly came over Kyiv's unwillingness to agree to a peace plan involving the recognition of Russia's illegal annexation of the Crimean Peninsula.
On April 26, US President Donald Trump met with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy on the sidelines of the funeral for Pope Francis at the Vatican, but no breakthroughs were reported.
After speaking with several European diplomats familiar with the matter, it's clear that something of a game plan has emerged in response.
What Is Europe Doing Toward Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks?
The first priority is keeping the Americans onboard and keeping them talking to the Ukrainians. Exactly how successful this aim can be is up in the air, as Washington has threatened to walk away if no progress is made soon.
The officials I talked to, however, believe this could be a negotiation tactic aimed to pressure Ukraine, saying Trump has a penchant for playing tough in public only to go back to the negotiation table later -- as evidenced by the way he has enacted and retracted sweeping trade tariffs in recent weeks.
The Europeans are keen to secure what they call a "sequencing," meaning first a cease-fire observed by both sides followed by lasting peace.
The belief is that this could ensure more of Ukraine's security interests are guaranteed and that not everything is on Moscow’s terms. There is hope that Ukraine's willingness to observe a cease-fire in the past month -- and Russia's failure to do so -- shows that Kyiv is acting in good faith and not Moscow.
This would also buy the Europeans time to assemble a "reassurance force" in the Western part of Ukraine with at least some sort of American political backing, even though American participation seems off the table, according to the European diplomats I spoke with.
The current thinking is less of a "boots on the ground" presence and more toward air patrolling with the aim of securing Lviv airport and the surrounding areas as a transport hub for Ukraine.
The Europeans are also keen to continue military aid to the country.
Although there is an understanding that it might be impossible to completely fill the void left by the United States, there's hope that European money will keep flowing and the new German government in place in early May will be more forthcoming, notably on providing Kyiv with long-awaited Taurus cruise missiles.
What About The US Call To Recognize Crimea As Russian?
As for some of America's demands for a potential peace proposal, the Europeans are also crystal-clear.
There will never be a de jure recognition of Crimea as part of Russia -- unless, of course, Ukraine agrees to it. De facto recognition of the lands currently under Russian control is another matter. Ukrainian NATO membership being off the table can also be swallowed.
Several European states hid behind the United States when, under the Biden administration, it nixed the prospects of inviting Ukraine into the military alliance at both the NATO summit in Vilnius in 2023 and in Washington a year later.
Eventual EU membership, though, is another matter. Brussels and all key European capitals are adamant Moscow has no say in that.
According to diplomats familiar with the proposed American peace deal, Russia accepts that Ukraine could join the bloc. A so-called Cyprus scenario, which means all of Ukraine could at some point be considered part of the club whereas in fact only those parts under Kyiv's control would be, is the most likely solution.
One thing that appears off the table for now, to much European relief, is the call for new elections in Ukraine, a point that diplomats told me has quietly disappeared from American talking points after it was initially mentioned as a potential condition. I have heard that Russia still might want to push for it.
Could Europe Relax Sanctions On Russia?
Then there are the sanctions. While the United States has offered Russia sanctions relief, the Europeans are not in favor. You would need unanimity to lift the measures now, and that unanimity simply doesn't exist.
In fact, I was told Paris and Berlin want to pile up pressure on Russia and, in particular, enact more restrictive measures in the coming weeks.
A 17th round of restrictive measures against the Kremlin was in the works already after the deadly Russian attacks on the Ukrainian cities of Sumy and Kryviy Rih earlier in April, and Brussels will now speed up those efforts.
The EU is also finalizing asset freezes and visa bans against 15 Russians accused of carrying out hybrid attacks on the EU in a separate sanctions package.
As with all things related to Russia, EU officials admit it will be hard to get Hungary to give the green light and that is why the next package is likely to be symbolic rather than hard-hitting.
They also need to secure Budapest's consent to roll over sectoral sanctions on Russia in July. There are plenty of worries that this won’t happen and that even other member states will start picking out sanctions measures they don't like, hence the scrambling for alternatives to keep the sanction measures alive.
The one item that most countries want to save are the near 200 billion euros of frozen Russian assets in the bloc, not least of all because the EU would like to use this sum as a bargaining chip against Moscow to pay for the reconstruction of Ukraine.
The windfall profits from frozen assets currently bankrolls Ukraine's military needs, and the 45 billion euro G7 loan propping up Kyiv's macrofinancial needs for 2025 is backed up using frozen assets as a collateral. So Europe will want to sustain at least some sanctions on Russia going forward.
