All eyes will be on southern Germany this weekend as world leaders assemble at the Hotel Bayerischer Hof for the three-day Munich Security Conference.
And while there will be plenty of official statements and high-level discussions, perhaps the most important talks -- about Ukraine's future -- will take place on the sidelines.
Much of the discussion leading up to the conference, has been about whether U.S. President Donald Trump's envoy for Russia and Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, would present a much-anticipated peace plan in the Bavarian capital.
Kellogg told AP that the White House is ironing out details of any potential talks. "When we come back from Munich -- we want to deliver to the president the options, so when he does get [directly] involved in the peace process, he knows what it will look like for him," Kellogg said.
Talks Taking Shape
What's likely, one European diplomat told RFE/RL, will be for "some sort of contours or broad brushstrokes of a deal to appear in Munich," as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, are slated to meet with Kellogg and U.S. Vice President JD Vance.
Potential Ukrainian talks with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who are also attending the conference, could also take place. Plus, several European leaders are also keen to discuss the war in what is likely to be a Valentine's weekend full of diplomatic speed dating.
Quite what will emerge from the talks remains to be seen, but the speculation from diplomats is that there would be some freezing of the conflict, with Kyiv at least temporarily accepting some land losses to Russia in exchange for security guarantees.
Immediate NATO membership for Ukraine has been ruled out by the NATO officials RFE/RL has spoken to, and Trump -- who spoke to Zelenskyy and Putin in separate phone calls on February 12 -- said he does not think it's practical for Ukraine to have NATO membership. But the ramping up of Western arms deliveries to Kyiv is seen as a more realistic option.
Kellogg has previously spoken about the possibility of Ukraine holding elections at some point, something that isn't possible under the Ukrainian Constitution as long as martial law is in place. And Trump recently touted the possibly of the United States getting access to Ukrainian deposits of rare earth minerals "as compensation for the hundreds of billions it has spent on helping Kyiv resist Russia's full-scale invasion."
The question remains how keen the Kremlin is to strike a deal with Western officials. While Russia is open to talking to the United States, the Kremlin might be less likely to compromise on anything now as Moscow is perceived to have the upper hand in the fighting.
Gaza Hostage Deadline
Beyond Ukraine, many leaders in Munich will also be keeping a keen and nervous eye on the Gaza Strip as the deadline for returning the Israeli hostages held by the U.S.- and EU-designated terrorist group Hamas is midday on February 15 -- right in the middle of the conference. Trump has previously warned that "all bets are off and let hell break out" if they aren't freed.
The German parliamentary elections, taking place just one week after the security conference, will also provide an interesting backdrop. The current center-left chancellor, Olaf Scholz, and his likely successor, the center-right leader Friedrich Merz, will both be glad-handing foreign dignitaries in Bavaria.
And while they might trade electoral barbs there, the most likely postelection outcome is a grand coalition between their respective parties.
The anti-migrant, pro-Russian Alternative for Germany, which is expected to finish second in the elections, is barred from the gathering, as is the populist left-wing Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, which holds similar views and is expected to enter the Bundestag for the first time. Together, they are expected to get over a quarter of all votes, as the populist winds blow across Germany, too.
