We’ve been here before -- declaring NATO dead or dying. Recently, U.S. Republican Senator Mike Lee posted on X, saying: “It’s time to leave NATO and the UN.” Elon Musk, the world’s richest man and a close ally of U.S. President Donald Trump, responded simply: “I agree.”
While officials in Brussels and elsewhere note that Musk often shares political opinions on his platform, X, without necessarily shaping U.S. policy, some observers acknowledge his access to Trump and his informal influence in certain conservative circles in Washington, D.C.
Still, NATO officials at their Brussels headquarters have remained surprisingly calm so far. Their answer to whether the alliance’s demise is imminent is still a resounding “No” for two reasons: the gap between rhetoric and action; and the difference between NATO allies and NATO aspirants – notably Ukraine.
U.S. Wants Greater Defense Spending
Take the first reason. As recently as last week, Trump reaffirmed his commitment to NATO’s mutual defense clause, Article 5, in remarks alongside U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
That stance was reiterated multiple times -- both publicly and privately -- by U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth during a meeting of NATO defense ministers in Brussels in February.
While he firmly insisted that European allies must significantly increase their defense spending, everyone I spoke to described the discussions as constructive.
“He never left the room, listened, asked questions, and took notes -- not the behavior of an ally about to quit,” one NATO ambassador told me.
And in that vein, NATO diplomats continue to navigate the constant speculation. “We need to decipher what it all means, said one senior official. “But we’ve also learned that we should ignore the noise and look at actions. It’s a sort of ‘strategic patience’ we must practice.”
Ukraine's Uncertain NATO Path
Ukraine, however, is a different matter. “The Ukraine track has changed, but not the NATO track. They’ve been pretty tough on Ukraine but remain committed to NATO,” one alliance ambassador observed. The shift in tone toward Volodymyr Zelenskyy is one clear example, but Britain’s new role in coordinating arms deliveries to Ukraine is another indicator.
It’s also evident that Ukraine won’t be joining NATO anytime soon -- though, in truth, it was the Biden administration that blocked Kyiv’s membership at recent NATO summits, much to the quiet relief of some Western European countries. The new U.S. administration is just more blunt about it.
What countries on NATO’s eastern flank are now asking is whether American troops will remain stationed there. For now, the answer is yes, though many acknowledge concerns about an impending review of U.S. troop levels in Europe.
But if these countries are attacked by Russia, will U.S. forces come to their aid? The prevailing belief is that they will. but Article 5 of the NATO treaty depends on both allies and adversaries believing it will hold.
As one Eastern European official put it: “It’s like Schroedinger’s cat -- it exists in both states, alive and dead, until the box is opened. In NATO’s case, until Article 5 is actually tested, we won’t really know.”
