China viewed the end of the US-led war in Afghanistan as an opportunity to expand its regional influence, gain access to the country's mineral wealth, and secure its border against extremist groups.
But even as Beijing has expanded its economic and political footprint in Taliban-ruled Afghanistan since 2021, China's interests are under threat from hostilities between Kabul and neighboring Pakistan as well as attacks on Chinese workers and projects in the region.
Key to Beijing's goals, experts say, is stabilizing Afghanistan through development and ending Kabul's historical enmity with Islamabad, China's close ally, through economic cooperation.
It's a plan that has so far failed.
"China's ambitions were contingent upon there being some stability between Pakistan and Afghanistan, but that's not happening," said Marvin Weinbaum, director of Afghanistan and Pakistan studies at the Middle East Institute think tank in Washington.
'Upset Chinese Planning'
In October, Afghanistan and Pakistan exchanged military attacks, killing dozens of people and leading to Pakistan closing its border with Afghanistan. It was the worst outbreak of hostilities in years and raised fears of an all-out war.
Islamabad accuses Kabul of sheltering the Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) extremist group, which is waging an increasingly potent insurgency inside Pakistan.
Since October, sporadic violence has erupted along the countries' long border after a temporary cease-fire ended. In late November, the Taliban accused Pakistan of carrying out air strikes inside Afghanistan that killed at least 10 people, nine of whom were children.
Weinbaum said Beijing is worried a full-scale war between Afghanistan and Pakistan could scupper its infrastructure projects in both countries.
"It has upset Chinese planning, and they don't seem to be able to have any leverage to get any improvement," he said.
Pakistan is home to the $60 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), an integral part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Beijing's massive global infrastructure project. Islamabad, however, has received only roughly $25 billion in investment since CPEC was launched in 2015.
Thousands of Chinese nationals work in Pakistan, where the authorities have created a special police force, installed hundreds of checkpoints, and erected numerous barriers around the megaprojects.
China has also struck deals to extract oil and minerals with the Taliban's cash-strapped government. Beijing has also pledged to expand CPEC to Afghanistan, which it sees as a bridge linking Central and South Asia.
Beijing has attempted to ease longstanding tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan by promoting greater economic cooperation between the neighbors.
In 2022, China reestablished a high-level diplomatic forum to advance economic and security cooperation between Islamabad and Kabul. Beijing has also brokered meetings between the Taliban and Pakistani foreign ministers and called on both sides to show restraint when clashes broke out in October.
"China is very anxious because these tensions undermine its interests in the region and even globally," said Ihsanullah Tipu Mehsud, news director at the Khorasan Diary, a website tracking militant groups in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
'Hub For Militants'
Those interests include preventing violence in Afghanistan from spilling across its borders.
Mehsud said China is concerned about the proliferation of militant groups, including those fighting against Beijing, if a full-scale armed conflict erupts between Afghanistan and Pakistan.
"Beijing is already worried about the northeastern Afghan province of Badakhshan turning into a hub for militants," Mehsud said.
Mountainous Badakhshan borders Pakistan and provides Afghanistan's only land link to China's northwestern Xinjiang region.
On November 27, an attack launched from Badakhshan killed five Chinese workers and wounded five others who were working for a joint Chinese-Tajik gold mining company in southern Tajikistan.
It is not the first time Chinese workers have been targeted in the area. Last year, one Chinese national was killed and four injured in a cross-border attack in Tajikistan's south. Sources told RFE/RL at the time that the attackers crossed from Afghanistan.
The number of Uyghurs militants in the area is unknown but believed to be small and it is unclear what connections they have to the broader Uyghur diaspora and Xinjiang region.
In late 2021, the Taliban removed ethnic Uyghur militants from Badakhshan to other areas of Afghanistan, RFE/RL reported at the time.
The fighters were said to be members of the Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP), an extremist group Beijing blames for unrest in Xinjiang and refers to as the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM). ETIM is the name of an older militant group many experts say is no longer operational and whose impact has been exaggerated by Beijing for political purposes.
In the wake of the recent attack on Chinese workers, the Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi vowed "to strengthen border security, conduct joint investigations, and engage in any form of coordination" with Tajikistan.
But the killings have forced Beijing to order the withdrawal of its workers from Tajikistan's border region with Afghanistan.
"The stakes for China are set to rise, but it appears helpless," Mehsud said.
