As congratulations poured in from leaders around the world when it became clear that Donald Trump had won the U.S. presidency for the second time, there was no sign of a message from Russian President Vladimir Putin, and his spokesman suggested one might never come.
The Kremlin website, where such things are posted, was dominated by an account of Putin’s remote participation in the ceremonial launch of an atomic-powered icebreaker -- a symbol of Russia’s role in the Arctic, where it competes for resources with the United States and others.
The signal was crystal clear, and it would have been even if Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov hadn’t spelled it out by saying the icebreaker launch was “more important” for Russians than the U.S. election. It was part of an effort by Putin, the Kremlin, and state-aligned media to portray Russia and its government as indifferent to the result of the American vote.
Putin withheld comment on the U.S. election result until late on November 7, when he offered informal congratulations to Trump hours into remarks at a forum in the resort city of Sochi.
Putin praised Trump, saying that he had displayed “courage” when a gunman tried to assassinate him in July. He said that what he called Trump’s statements about a desire to “restore relations” with Moscow and “foster an end to the Ukraine crisis” – a reference to the all-out war Putin launched against Russia’s neighbor in 2022 -- “deserve attention, to say the least.”
The comments in Sochi seemed to support the case made by observers that the air of indifference was a smokescreen.
More likely: The Kremlin was hoping for a Trump win, largely because it would put the future of U.S. support for Ukraine against the Russian invasion in doubt, or for a narrow victory for Vice President Kamala Harris, which could potentially have caused chaos in the United States if contested by Trump and his supporters.
The thinking was that if Trump won, “the prospects for continued -- let alone expanded -- support for Ukraine would be in jeopardy, Europe would panic, and the NATO alliance risked fraying,” Russia analyst Mark Galeotti wrote in an article published by the British newspaper The i on November 6.
“However, even if Harris won, they anticipated that Trump’s supporters would call foul and the ensuing recriminations and challenges would paralyze the new administration,” Galeotti wrote.
Putin, who likes to mock the West and keep it guessing about his hopes, plans, and motives, asserted in September that he favored Harris. That comment was part of what may have been a concerted effort by the Kremlin to avoid the impression that Putin and his government were hoping Trump would win.
To this end, there was plenty of criticism of Trump on state TV as the U.S. campaign progressed.
Speaking on state-run Channel One television in late July, military observer Dmitry Drozdenko called Trump “a slave of the deep state -- he can’t do anything about it, he doesn’t have the power -- that’s the way America is organized.”
“In 2016, for the most part, we passionately loved Trump,” a commentator said on pro-Kremlin TV host Vladimir Solovyov’s Internet channel in June. “We even had…people who painted triptychs: Trump, [French far-right politician Marine] Le Pen, and [Putin]. Well, what did we get out of it in the end?”
WATCH: State-aligned Russian media celebrated Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election -- and the political split in U.S. society -- before official results were declared. But a Kremlin spokesman said he knew of no plans by Russian President Vladimir Putin to congratulate Trump.
Once Trump won, the tone among pro-Kremlin commentators was more upbeat.
But on his evening show on November 6, Solovyov cautioned against excessive enthusiasm.
"We don’t need fanfare. We shouldn't be too happy or celebrate it,” he said. “We should observe what’s happening with interest and draw sensible conclusions."
While Putin offered his informal congratulations in the comments on November 7, there are several reasons why he did not do so along with other world leaders on November 6 and appears not to have done so formally.
For one thing, Putin has demonized the United States and portrayed Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine as part of a civilizational struggle against an aggressive and morally bankrupt West.
In that context, Putin wants to avoid any impression that he is anxiously hoping for a thaw in ties with Washington, or that he is likely to soften up and make concessions on any contentious issue -- such as the war in Ukraine -- with Trump in power.
The desire to appear aloof is probably even stronger following reports that Trump secretly sent COVID testing equipment to Putin during the pandemic and that the two have spoken several times since Trump left office -- something Trump’s campaign denied.
In addition to optics -- the desire to seem coolly impartial and unconcerned -- the Kremlin’s wariness may also reflect uncertainty about how, exactly, Trump will address Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Criticism from Trump and his running mate, JD Vance, of the tens of billions of dollars in weapons and other aid the United States has given Ukraine under U.S. President Joe Biden has led to hopes in the Kremlin that Western support for Kyiv will dry up fast, handing Russia a huge advantage on the battlefield.
And Trump repeatedly claimed during the campaign that he would engineer an end to the war very quickly if elected, sparking fears in Ukraine and among its supporters that the United States might push for a deal that gives Kyiv very little and Moscow a lot, including the territory it currently controls.
But Trump has said little about how he would go about getting the sides to the negotiating table. So for now, at least, there seems to be no motive for Putin to signal that he is prepared for peace on anything other than Russia’s terms.
Among other things, those include Russian control over five Ukrainian regions in their entirety, including parts that are not currently occupied by Moscow’s forces, and a permanent bar on Ukraine joining NATO.
Not long before Putin spoke in Sochi, his Security Council secretary and former defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, talked tough about the war in Ukraine, saying that “the West is faced with a choice - to continue financing [Kyiv’s defense against the Russian invasion] and destroying the Ukrainian population or to recognize the current realities and start negotiating."
