Russian drones entering Polish airspace represent more than a border violation, says Peter Doran, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
Speaking with RFE/RL’s Todd Prince after Poland became the first NATO state to shoot down Russian drones, he said Russian leader Vladimir Putin is probing Western defenses and challenging the alliance and US President Donald Trump to respond.
RFE/RL: This is the first time a NATO country took down Russian drones. How serious is this incident?
Peter Doran: The overnight incursion into Poland represents a significant escalation in Russia's efforts to shake NATO, shake the tree in NATO. This is an attempt to probe NATO responses, and more importantly, it is a direct challenge to President Trump's efforts to make peace in Ukraine.
RFE/RL: So why would Russia be doing this now?
This event underscores the need to prioritize gaps in air defenses, not just along the front line, but for all NATO member states...-- Peter Doran
Doran: I believe Vladimir Putin has miscalculated. His miscalculation is that Trump will not pressure him to end his expanded invasion of Ukraine. Even if the drones may or may not have gone off course or they were skirting around electronic warfare defenses of the Ukrainians, that is irrelevant.
A violation of NATO airspace is major. Putin is testing our Western response. And if the West fails to rally and demonstrate a unified front against this action, it will only get worse.
RFE/RL: What should a unified response look like? What actions should NATO take?
Doran: Thankfully, NATO has a lot of options at its disposal, and the United States should absolutely be in the lead. The most important one is to invoke not Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, but Article 4. That covers consultations between allies, and there are different levels of consultations.
But most importantly, this needs to be escalated to a NATO level under the North Atlantic Treaty using Article 4 consultations. That would be significant.
Article 4 has only been invoked seven times previously and only twice related to the war in Ukraine, first in 2014 and then again in 2022 after Russia expanded its invasion.
This is a significant escalation by Putin -- now violating NATO airspace -- and it requires an equally significant response from the alliance now.
RFE/RL: Following the consultations, what kind of actions do you think NATO might take?
Doran: We need a unified message from all of NATO communicating to Russia that future incursions will be met with the same forceful response, and together with Europe, the United States must now make good on President Trump's threat to increase economic sanctions and penalties on Russia.
Most importantly, this should cut off the flow of petro dollars that Putin needs to pay for this war. That's where he's weakest. That's where we should press hardest.
RFE/RL: What about deploying additional air defense to prevent future incursions?
Doran: NATO must absolutely double and triple up its air defenses along the front line with Russia.
But more importantly, this incursion comes at a time when European allies are trying to rapidly increase their defense spending.
And this event underscores the need to prioritize gaps in air defenses, not just along the front line, but for all NATO member states, including Germany, including Belgium, including the Netherlands.
Countries that are far away from Russia must take these kinds of threats seriously because Russia has the ability to challenge all of NATO.
RFE/RL: Could this additional NATO air defense also cover parts of Ukraine?
Doran: I think that the time is now for NATO to extend its air defense umbrella deeper into western Ukraine. Recall early in 2022 there was a consideration about a so-called “no fly zone."
Some members of the alliance were uncomfortable with this option because they feared it could be viewed by Putin as escalatory. However, Putin has now escalated against NATO, and the time is right to impose a defensive no fly zone over western Ukraine.
