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Russia 2018: Kremlin Countdown

Updated

A tip sheet on Russia's March 18 presidential election delivering RFE/RL and Current Time TV news, videos, and analysis along with links to what our Russia team is watching. Compiled by RFE/RL correspondents and editors.

Tatars For Putin

The Kremlin-friendly World Congress of Tatars has officially endorsed incumbent President Putin.

"Many centuries connect Tatars with Russia," the organization's March 12 statement says, "which has been and remains for the majority of us our homeland."

"Through the most difficult times we demonstrated our loyalty to Russia," it continues. "Today, when many do not like the increasing power of our country, it is particularly necessary to show unity and togetherness. Only such a Russia can be the guarantor of the development of our people. The Tatar nation connects its future with our national leader, Vladimir Putin. We call on all our countrymen to participate actively in the voting and to support the political course of the current president of the country. We are for a strong Russia, for a strong president, for Putin."

Making up nearly 4 percent of the population, Tatars form the largest minority ethnic group in Russia. Many activists say the Kremlin has long pursued policies to Russify the Tatars, creating difficulties for the spread of the Tatar language. According to Russian census figures, the number of people who speak Tatar in Russia fell by just over 1 million between 2002 and 2010.

Election Will Be Watched For 'Any Signs Of Weakness'

Timothy Frye, a longtime Russia watcher and chairman of Columbia University’s Department of Political Science, shares the consensus that Vladimir Putin’s reelection on March 18 is a foregone conclusion. He cites "ballot-box stuffing, voter intimidation, and dirty tricks against the opposition," among other factors.

But the essential purpose of the vote, Frye argues in a "5 Questions" piece, is not to decide a leader, but rather “they provide a rare public signal of the relative strength of Putin, and potential challengers among the elite and the public.”

“Those in Russia who might challenge Putin’s rule will scrutinize the election results for signs of weakness,” he says.

And that will add to the other most important outcome of the vote: Who might succeed Putin in six years’ time?

Dozhd TV quotes Vladimir Putin's spokesman as confirming that the shoo-in incumbent president's last trip to "the regions" before the March 18 election will be a March 14 trip to Crimea, which Russia invaded and then annexed from Ukraine four years to the day before th looming election.

The station quotes sources as saying that while there will be a number of rallies there, the biggest will be in the port city of Sevastopol, home to Russia's Black Sea Fleet.

Earlier rumors suggested Putin might cast his ballot in Crimea. The United Nations voted overwhelmingly after the 2014 seizure that Crimea remained part of Ukraine.

Generation Putin

The BBC's Russian Service has issued the first video of a series of interviews with 18-year-old Russians -- those who are eligible to go to the polls for the first time on March 18 and who have lived their whole lives in the shadow of Vladimir Putin's national leadership.

In the first clip, Zhenya Akulov of St. Petersburg tells of one of his earliest memories, in which his mother encouraged him to eat up his food by pointing to Putin's portrait and saying, "Eat -- Uncle Volodya is watching you!"

Akulov says he will only decide whether to vote once election day itself rolls around.

In A Nutshell

Handy AFP infographic on the bare-bones outline of President Vladimir Putin's career so far.

No Time For Bad News

Opposition leader Ilya Yashin, who is a deputy in Moscow's Krasnoselsky district, posted on Facebook on March 11 that the entire print run of a new report, titled Putin: Results 2018, was confiscated by Moscow police as it was being delivered from the printer.

Yashin posted a short video of this incident, which occurred in a Moscow parking garage.

The report, which was authored by Yashin and former Deputy Energy Minister Vladimir Milov, continues a tradition started by slain opposition leader Boris Nemtsov, who was shot dead outside the Kremlin in February 2015. The report assesses the economic, social, and international performance of President Putin over the 18 years of his rule.

"It is clear that the police have acted illegally: no one in Russia is banned from speaking out in opposition to the president or from publishing reports that criticize him," Yashin wrote. "However, in practice, the police carry out the function of a political guard and arrest any publication that does not sing Putin's praises."

Yashin wrote that the presentation of the report will go ahead as planned, but did not say when it would be held.

Previous reports can be seen at the Putin: Results website.

The Old Ways Are The Best Ways

Officials in Russia's western Kaliningrad Oblast are resorting to old Soviet methods of turning out the vote for the March 18 presidential ballot.

In the city of Gusev, officials reportedly plan to sell basic staples at "social prices" at special stands set up "near polling stations."

Gusev residents will be able to pick up sugar, macaroni, canned beef and pork, sprats in oil, and the like for prices they aren't likely to see again until the next time Vladimir Putin comes up for reelection.

Election Night With The Putin Campaign

The Vedomosti business daily has some details about how Vladimir Putin's campaign plans to celebrate its all-but-certain victory on March 18.

The campaign plans to deploy no fewer than 100,000 "election monitors" to guard against surprises.

And it will reportedly bring all its official representatives to its headquarters in Moscow to watch the returns. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said "it cannot be excluded" that Putin himself will visit the headquarters.

Earlier, the website Znak.com reported that Putin's campaign plans a huge victory rally on Manezh Square on the night of March 18-19.

Boycott Or Vote Against Putin?

The excellent and thought-provoking website The Question has posed the poser: Why is boycotting the election better than voting for someone other than Putin?

The interactive website allows ordinary Russians and experts as well to post their thoughtful reactions to the topic and, if you read Russian, this question has produced some high-quality responses that are, to be frank, suffused with the notion that the election is a farce and a sense that there is nothing that can be done about it. The general consensus of the first 11 responses is that opposition politician Aleksei Navalny's call for a boycott works in Vladimir Putin's favor since at least 50 percent of Russians will willingly or under pressure vote for the incumbent in any event and a low turnout won't harm the appearance of legitimacy because elections in Western democratic countries also often draw minimal participation.

Former Deputy Energy Minister and Navalny supporter Vladimir Milov posted on social media about The Question's polls, adding his view that one respondent hit the nail on the head with the comment that a boycott is better "because your ballot can be doctored but empty polling stations can't."

Another respondent wrote similarly: "A boycott would really be an effective weapon if Navalny and his team managed to persuade an absolute majority to support the boycott. If in 10 days only 20 percent of eligible voters showed up, then it could be boldly said that the regime has signed its own death sentence.... But the situation is completely different." The same respondent suggested that if you do decide to vote, you should do it at the end of the day so that you can make sure someone hasn't already cast a ballot in your name. In addition, everyone should sign up to monitor the vote and make it more difficult for the authorities to manipulate the figures with impunity. And third, urged the respondent, go to a pensioner and show them the evidence of Putin's corruption -- the villas, the yachts, the private planes -- and try to persuade them not to vote for more of the same.

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