Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine four years ago, most of the headlines about the role of Starlink satellite Internet service in the war have been about its use by Ukraine, such as the tension that erupted when US tech billionaire Elon Musk’s company SpaceX refused to grant Kyiv access to the system for operations in the Black Sea near Russian-occupied Crimea.
Suddenly, though, attention has focused on Russia, which had been relying heavily on Starlink for battlefield coordination and drone strikes, using terminals smuggled into the war zones in eastern and southern Ukraine. That illicit use was sharply curtailed last week, when SpaceX cut off access to the system from unauthorized terminals at the request of Ukraine and its tech-savvy new defense minister, Mykhaylo Fedorov.
The blow to Russia’s military operations comes at a crucial juncture in its war on Ukraine, as President Vladimir Putin’s government seeks to capture the whole of the eastern Donbas region and use battlefield advances to pressure Kyiv for territorial concessions in the US-led push for a peace deal.
Russian forces have been scrambling for substitutions, according to military analysts, Ukrainian officials, and hawkish Russian “war bloggers” who raised the alarm about the effects on Russia’s advances, which have been slow and extremely costly as the four-year mark approaches in an invasion Putin hoped would subjugate Ukraine within weeks.
They are relying on stopgap measures while searching for longer-term alternatives -- but experts say those fall short of Starlink’s speed, coverage, and resilience.
Russian forces “have largely lost the ability to effectively aim attack drones, including Shaheds, and to conduct reconnaissance,” Ihor Romanenko, a retired lieutenant general and former deputy chief of Ukraine’s General Staff, told RFE/RL.
'Urgently Adapting'
Serhiy Beskrestnov, a Ukrainian Defense Ministry adviser with the call sign Flash, said on social media that Russian “assault operations were stopped in many areas” due to the loss of coordination capabilities.
Such claims could not immediately be independently verified. Viktor Kevlyuk, a military expert at Ukraine’s Center for Defense Strategies, said “Russian units are urgently adapting to the whitelist system, which deactivates unregistered terminals, by sourcing and deploying readily available substitutes.”
“Russia has pivoted to its own providers using the Yamal and Express satellite [networks], which are geostationary and primarily designed for civilian-government use. Terminals resembling traditional satellite TV dishes -- oval or round, unprotected, oriented southeast/south--are being rushed to frontline units,” Kevlyuk said.
He added, however, that these terminals “are easier to detect and target due to their fixed orientation and lack of mobility.”
“Starlink signals are more resilient to electronic countermeasures than Russia’s ground-based systems,” Lauryn Williams, deputy director and senior fellow in the Strategic Technologies Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told RFE/RL. “Without it, Russian forces will likely be far more vulnerable.”
Still, the development “will not immediately lead to sudden Ukrainian breakthroughs or big victories” for Kyiv, Yan Matveyev, a Russian military analyst who lives abroad, told Current Time. He said this is mainly “because in order to advance and break through, you need large forces even in the current bottlenecks of the front,” and Ukraine -- struggling with manpower problems -- may not have the troops to spare for such efforts.
'Smuggled Workarounds'
Starlink had played a particularly important role in Russian drone operations. Long-range drones have become a key tool for Russian strikes on Ukraine’s rear, including energy infrastructure, and the presence of Starlink terminals on these drones suggested the technology was being deployed systematically and at scale.
Blocking Starlink access does not mean Russia has lost the ability to fight altogether, analysts said: Its forces retain alternative communications channels and continue to use drones with radio control, autonomous guidance, or closed networks that do not rely on Starlink -- albeit with less accuracy and speed.
Meanwhile, experts said, the long-term impact of the cutoff will depend on how quickly Russia adapts. “The lasting effect will depend on whether Russia can expand domestic satellite systems, rely on less effective alternatives, or develop smuggled workarounds,” Kevlyuk said.
Ukrainian officials say Russia’s efforts include attempts to pressure or entice Ukrainians to register Starlink terminals for Russian use, with Beskrestnov asserting on Facebook that bribery is among the tactics being used. “My advice to traitors: don’t even try it,” he wrote.
Ukraine’s Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War also reported cases in which Russian forces threatened relatives of Ukrainian soldiers in Russian custody to coerce them into registering Starlink terminals. “Once again, the enemy regards the relatives and friends of captured Ukrainians as a resource for manipulation,” the headquarters said. The claim could not immediately be verified.
'Soldiers In The Trenches'
Some Russian commentators have floated more aggressive responses, but Putin’s government might be hesitant to take such steps.
“Kremlin propagandists have threatened kinetic attacks on SpaceX satellites or US infrastructure, but these are seen as self-harming due to escalation risks and orbital debris,” Kevlyuk said. “More plausible are deniable tactics like jamming, spoofing, or cyberattacks on Starlink.”
In any case, Russia is “looking for solutions at the highest level,” Romanenko said.
Publicly, Russian officials from Putin on down have said little or nothing about the Starlink restrictions, though Russia’s delegation at a UN conference criticized Starlink and argued that it may be in breach of an international treaty on outer space.
But the Starlink cutoff led to a surge of ire from pro-war Russian bloggers who are active on social media -- many criticizing not SpaceX but the Russian government, which they argue is not fighting the war hard or effectively enough.
One Telegram channel, called Dossier -- Secret Contour, suggested that the Kremlin should "publicly explain to soldiers in the trenches” why the state is spending billions of rubles on civilian projects like the online messenger Max, instead of creating a full-fledged [Russian] satellite communications system.”
Last month, the Russian newspaper Kommersant reported that the launch of the first 16 satellites for a system that Moscow hopes would be a domestic alternative to Starlink was delayed after initially being planned for late 2025.
