Russian and Ukrainian negotiators will be in the same country as they hold talks with a US delegation in Saudi Arabia, but few expect a major breakthrough.
True, US officials have voiced optimism ahead of the meetings in Saudi Arabia.
"I think that you're going to see in Saudi Arabia on Monday some real progress,” US envoy Steve Witkoff told Fox News on March 22.
But the view from Kyiv and Moscow has been more sober.
"The maximum result is a pause. But this is still unknown, because the negotiations could drag on for a month or two,” political analyst Serhiy Taran told RFE/RL’s Ukrainian Service.
“I think the most that can be imagined is that, perhaps, some technical details about the cease-fire will be worked out. And they will then be taken back to Kyiv, Moscow, and Washington in the form of proposals,” he said.
“This is the maximum. This is not about peace. This is simply the technical origin of certain details of the cease-fire.”
His comments reflected earlier remarks by Ukrainian officials.
In Russia, where RFE/RL has been declared an undesirable organization and is effectively banned, it was Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov who doused cold water on any hopes of a quick deal.
"One shouldn't get one's hopes high. Very serious, thorough work is ahead. We will have to delve into the details," he said in an interview on state TV on March 23.
“We're only in the beginning of this road," he added.
Russian and Ukrainian diplomats were not planning to meet directly. Instead, they are expected to each meet separately with the US team, in what one US official said would be “shuttle diplomacy.”
The diplomacy got under way on March 23, with talks between US and Ukrainian officials. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said the "constructive and meaningful" session had been concluded for the day.
Still, this marks a milestone in itself. Previously, there have been breaks of a day or more between different rounds of bilateral talks. Having everyone in the same place could speed things up.
On the other hand, this would be a similar model to that used for Gaza cease-fire negotiations which took months before a deal was clinched. (That agreement, meanwhile, has since collapsed.)
The proximity of the negotiating teams could, possibly, provide more clarity on the content of the talks. Previous rounds have been marked by each side presenting different versions of what was agreed or even discussed.
US President Donald Trump has been the most persistently bullish on talks so far. But his hopes for quick progress have been repeatedly knocked back.
Firstly, a plan agreed with Ukraine for a 30-day general cease-fire was stonewalled by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Instead, after a phone call with Putin, Trump said they’d agreed to a pause on attacks on infrastructure.
But the Kremlin narrowed the focus further, saying that the deal only concerned energy infrastructure -- which its forces subsequently attacked anyway. Ukraine hopes to clear this up in Jeddah by bringing a list of what Russia must agree not to target.
There was similar confusion after Trump’s talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. While US officials were speaking of a new plan for US ownership of Ukrainian nuclear plants, as a form of security guarantee for Ukraine, Zelenskyy made it clear these plants were state property that belonged to all Ukrainians.
Meanwhile, a bilateral deal on Ukraine’s rare Earth minerals was again said to be nearly ready. But there is still no clarity on when the document – itself apparently dealing more in aspiration than detail – will be signed.
Going into the new talks in Saudi Arabia, there is another focus.
Witkoff, the US envoy, said there would be progress on “a Black Sea cease-fire, on ships between both countries. And from that, you'll naturally gravitate into a full-on shooting cease-fire."
Witkoff also said he was confident that Putin wanted peace, something that Ukraine and European countries do not believe.
As the faltering diplomatic process has edged forward, Russian attacks have stepped up. The day before the talks, a 5-year-old child and an 11-month-old baby were the latest Ukrainian victims of Russia’s attacks on residential buildings.
Kyiv has hit back with strikes of its own.
"New decisions and new pressure on Moscow are needed to bring an end to these strikes and this war," said Zelenskyy on March 23.
