In late 2015, the Kremlin achieved a key victory when it launched a military intervention in Syria to rescue the fast-sinking regime of then-Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and enshrine its role as a leading player in the Middle East.
But 10 years later, Assad has been overthrown and a series of decisive events – the latest of which is an October 13 US-brokered cease-fire agreement between Israel and Gaza – are reversing that impression.
“Russia has not been sidelined diplomatically in the Middle East like this since it intervened in Syria in 2015,” Hanna Notte, director for Eurasia at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, told RFE/RL.
This diminished status was on display in Egypt on October 13 when US President Donald Trump co-chaired a summit attended by the leaders of more than 20 countries aimed at finalizing a permanent truce in Gaza. Russia was notably absent from the diplomatic gathering and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters that Moscow was not invited.
That followed the Kremlin cancelling a planned summit with Arab leaders in Moscow slated for later this week, with Bloomberg citing sources familiar with the matter as saying that the real reason for the cancellation was that too few regional leaders had confirmed their attendance.
European officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, also told RFE/RL that the agreement and the cancelled summit highlight Russia’s waning influence in the Middle East right now.
“It was definitely another sign that Russia’s role is diminishing in the region,” a European Union official focusing on Russia and Eurasia told RFE/RL. “The cancelled summit is another. Only two leaders – from Syria and Iraq – had agreed to come.”
Another EU diplomat told RFE/RL that Russia’s absence from the summit in Egypt marked “a win for the West.”
“Seeing US, Arab, and Western leaders up on the podium and zero Russian – or Chinese – role in all this, was quite a sight,” the EU diplomat told RFE/RL.
Moscow Faces A Quickly Changing Middle East
This comes after Russian prestige has suffered a series of losses in the Middle East in recent years as Moscow has been prioritizing its nearly four year invasion of Ukraine.
Assad, who Moscow had intervened militarily in conjunction with Iran to bolster during Syria’s civil war, was toppled in late 2024 and later fled to Moscow.
Hamas’ October 7, 2023 attacks that sparked a broader Israel-Gaza war then left Moscow facing new diplomatic challenges with Tel Aviv after the Kremlin spent decades building up strategic ties.
This was followed by US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran in June, which left Tehran – Moscow’s principle partner in the region – weakened militarily and Russia hesitant to supply Tehran with more arms.
It’s part of what analysts say is a new political calculus from Moscow as it remains focused on the war in Ukraine, with few strategic resources to divert to other regions of the globe.
“It’s a question of bandwidth,” said Notte. “Whether it’s an inability or an unwillingness, there are just less military resources for Russia to devote elsewhere.”
Compounding the diplomatic setbacks faced by Moscow is a complicated web of partnerships and strategic needs that Russia is navigating in the Middle East.
Russia has long had a robust relationship with Iran. Moscow remains a top foreign investor and arms supplier, and Tehran aided the Kremlin with badly needed drones in the first year of its Ukraine invasion by helping Moscow build out a critical factory to make drones at home.
But Russian President Vladimir Putin has aimed to develop deeper ties with Gulf nations like the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia, two increasingly important partners for Moscow that wouldn’t welcome a more powerful Iran.
This has left Moscow in a difficult position as it looks to support its top partner in the region while still trying to preserve ties with the Gulf nations that have been pivotal as conduits for Moscow to survive Western sanctions brought from its February 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Down, But Not Out
While the recent deal with Israel and Gaza marks a diplomatic breakthrough, a longer-term agreement to bring a lasting peace is still far from certain.
Notte adds that while Russia’s stature in the region may be waning from its heyday following its Syria intervention, its exclusion from the summit doesn’t mean that Moscow isn’t still a powerbroker in the Middle East.
“Even if Russia wasn’t bogged down in Ukraine, it probably wouldn't be a player on Israel-Palestine issues,” said Notte. “Moscow’s role on Israel-Palestine has been quite limited since the end of the Cold War.”
And while Russia faces questions over its future in the Middle East, Moscow has managed to slowly salvage remnants of its status in Syria.
Russia has somewhat defied predictions following Assad’s ouster by holding onto its Tartus naval facility and the Hmeimim air base in Syria, while also using its clout as a permanent member of the UN Security Council as an olive branch to build up positive ties with the government of Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa.
Sharaa personally welcomed a high-level delegation from Moscow last month and in an October 12 interview with CBS, the Syrian president looked to be keeping the door open to build up deeper ties with Russia down the road.
“Engaging in a conflict with Russia right now would be too costly for Syria. Nor would it be in the country's interest,” he said.
