It could hardly have gone worse.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s White House visit had a lot of potential. It could have produced a mineral-resources deal that would have roped Ukraine and the United States together, at least on paper, and given U.S. President Donald Trump more incentive to support Kyiv in its defense against the Russian onslaught. It could have brought some clarity on what kind of security guarantees, if any, Washington is prepared to offer Kyiv in the event of a cease-fire or peace deal with Russia. And if nothing else, Zelenskyy and Trump could have buried the hatchet after a remarkable exchange of criticism last week.
Instead, the hatchet came out again, sharper than ever. Zelenskyy departed the White House early – the minerals deal left without signature and a joint press conference canceled -- after being berated by Trump and Vice President JD Vance in what was by many accounts an unprecedentedly acrimonious meeting before journalists in the Oval Office.
The remarkable exchange did not just raise doubts about the fate of the natural-resources pact. It added to already towering uncertainty over the future of U.S. aid to Ukraine and over the prospects for any kind of a deal that would halt or end Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Here are four takeaways from the disastrous meeting.
The Damage Could Be Severe
The minerals deal that Trump and Zelenskyy were due to sign was only a framework agreement, and analysts said that at this point, its value would be mainly symbolic: A chance for both presidents to claim diplomatic victories and a way for the Trump administration to justify past and possibly future aid to Ukraine after raising questions about whether it should continue.
Trump had hailed the draft deal as an important step on what remains a faint path toward peace in Ukraine. So, whether it eventually gets signed, and when, will say a lot about the chances that Kyiv and Washington can work together on a potential cease-fire or peace deal with Russia.
Beyond the agreement on minerals, though, the bigger question is whether the United States will turn sharply away from Ukraine – cutting off or curtailing the military aid that is still ongoing, for example, or moving further ahead with efforts to agree with Russia on a cease-fire or peace plan for Ukraine while abandoning Kyiv.
The Split Could Last Long -- Or Possibly Not
The contentious meeting in the Oval Office marked a stomach-churning descent on a rollercoaster of relations between Trump and Zelenskyy, which have been fraught since shortly after the latter’s election in 2019.
But it may not be the end of the ride. It occurred just when it seemed like the damage done by their earlier exchange of criticism, in which Trump called Zelenskyy a “dictator” and Zelenskyy suggested Trump has succumbed to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s propaganda, had been repaired. Asked on the eve of Zelenskyy’s visit about his “dictator” accusation, Trump replied: "Did I say that? I can't believe I said that."
And for Zelenskyy, the desire to secure further U.S. aid and the hope for security arrangements underpinned by U.S. power are unlikely to go away regardless of the bad blood generated by the acrimonious White House visit. So, despite the way the jaw-dropping spectacle played out, there’s a chance -- however small -- that the wounds could be patched up.
The U.S.-Europe Rift Could Widen
Ties between the United States and most of the European Union have been tense since Trump returned to office for a second term on January 20, with stark differences over policies toward Ukraine and Russia as well as over an array of other matters, from trade to liberal values.
The unease was underscored when Vance lit into Europe in a speech at the Munich Security Conference on February 14, saying its own internal processes posed a greater threat to its welfare than Russia, China, or any other outside actor did.
French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer preceded Zelenskyy with visits to the White House this week, seeking to narrow the gulf –- particularly on the issue of what to do about Russian aggression and the war in Ukraine.
Had Zelenskyy’s meeting gone well, it could have brought greater U.S.-European unity as well. But the opposite may occur following the Oval Office dispute, which brought transatlantic tension rushing back as many European leaders voiced solidarity with Ukraine.
In a post on X in Ukrainian, European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen urged Zelenskyy, “Be strong, be brave, be fearless,” and assured him he “will never be alone,” adding: “We will continue to work with You for a just and lasting peace.”
A Blow To The Chances For A 'Just Peace'
When Zelenskyy and European leaders speak of a “just and lasting peace,” they mean a peace that does not favor Russia and weaken Ukraine, leaving it under Moscow’s thumb or vulnerable to future Russian attacks.
When he phoned Putin on February 12 and sent top officials to meet with their Russian counterparts in Riyadh six days later, upending the Biden administration’s efforts to isolate Moscow over its invasion, Trump ignited fears in Kyiv and Brussels that a lopsided peace deal might be forced on Ukraine.
Had it gone well, Zelenskyy’s meeting with Trump could have helped dispel those concerns -- the Ukrainian president said it was important that Trump was meeting with him before meeting with Putin. But it didn’t go well at all, and now those concerns are likely to grow stronger again.
