US Vice President JD Vance has departed Washington for Islamabad for their first peace talks of the war in what could be the most consequential diplomatic encounter between the United States and Iran in over four decades.
Before boarding Air Force Two, Vance said on April 10 that he expects "positive" negotiations even as disputes over the Strait of Hormuz and Israel's bombardment of Lebanon continue to cloud prospects for a deal to end the war.
"We're looking forward to negotiation. I think it's going to be positive," he said, while leaving open the possibility of a harder line. "If the Iranians are willing to negotiate in good faith, we're certainly willing to extend the open hand. If they're going to try to play us, then they're going to find the negotiating team is not that receptive."
He added that President Donald Trump “has given us some pretty clear guidelines, so we’re going to see.”
Vance will lead the American delegation alongside special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Iran has sent Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, who has been vociferous in anti-US statements in recent weeks.
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said the talks would start and April 11 and called it a "make or break situation," mutiple media outlets reported. The sides are likely to speak indirectly through Pakistani officials rather than meeting talking face-to-face.
Pakistan declared two days of public holidays in the capital ahead of the talks, as authorities often do for major diplomatic events for security reasons. The Serena Hotel in Islamabad's heavily fortified Red Zone, where over 10,000 police, paramilitary, rangers, and army personnel have been deployed, was cleared of guests on April 8 to host the event.
World Energy Crunch
Trump has assailed Tehran for its plan for the crucial Strait of Hormuz, suggesting it was "dishonorable," even as top US and Iranian officials were due to gather.
"Iran is doing a very poor job, dishonorable some would say, of allowing oil to go through the Strait of Hormuz. That is not the agreement we have!" Trump wrote on social media.
"There are reports that Iran is charging fees to tankers going through the Hormuz Strait -- they better not be and, if they are, they better stop now!" he wrote in a separate post.
A crucial demand by Trump as part of the two-week cease-fire deal is the free flow of shipping through the strait, which Iran effectively closed in the immediate aftermath of the US-Israeli strikes on February 28 as a retaliatory measure.
Tehran has vowed to reopen shipping, although only with coordination with the Iranian military and through payment of a toll. Ships have never previously been charged to transit the strait, considered an international waterway not under any country's authority.
In a sign of how tricky the talks may be, Qalibaf wrote on April 10, after Vance's plane had departed, that two measures of the temporary truce, a cease-fire in Lebanon and the release of Iran's blocked assets, "have yet to be implemented."
"These two matters must be fulfilled before negotiations begin," he said in a post on social media.
Not long afterward, Trump suggested Iran has few options other than negotiations. “The Iranians don’t seem to realize they have no cards, other than a short term extortion of the World by using International Waterways,” he wrote in a post. “The only reason they are alive today is to negotiate!”
Earlier, Trump told the New York Post that the United States was reloading warships with weaponry and suggested they would strike Iran hard if the talks fail.
"We’re loading up the ships with the best weapons ever made.... And if we don’t have a deal, we will be using them, and we will be using them very effectively," he said.
Asked whether he thought the talks would be successful, he said: “We’re going to find out in about 24 hours. We’re going to know soon.”
Israeli strikes on Lebanon have been a major point of contention, with the United States and Israel saying Lebanon is not inckluded in the cease-fire.
The bottleneck of oil and gas tankers created by Iran's blocking of the strait has led to a worldwide energy crunch and rising prices. The potential for a toll being charged has shocked leaders throughout the globe. The European Union, Britain, Greece, and others denounced Iran's plan.
Bloomberg reported that shipping companies would be expected to pay up to $2 million per vessel, while the Financial Times said payments to Iranian authorities would be only in cryptocurrency or Chinese yuan.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, on a three-day visit to the Persian Gulf, rejected the possibility that Tehran could charge for letting ships use the vital strait.
"Our position is 'open' means open for safe navigation," he told British TV. "That means toll-free navigation and vessels can get through."
The EU's top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, said, "We urge all involved to fully respect the ceasefire across the region, cease all military operations, and fully ensure freedom of navigation as well as free and safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, in line with international law."
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, whose country receives some 95 percent of its oil supplies from the Middle East, urged in a call with Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian that he calm tensions and ensure the safety of vessels through the strait.
A statement attributed to Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, and read out on state TV on April 9 appeared to underscore Tehran's intention to control the strait.
The statement said Iran "will definitely bring the management of the Strait of Hormuz to a new stage," but did not provide details. "Iran is not seeking war but will not forfeit its rights."
Khamenei has not been seen since the outbreak of war amid speculation about his well-being following February 28 air strikes that killed his father and other several members of his family.
Israel, Lebanon To Talk
Separately, but nearly as important, Israeli and Lebanese representatives will meet in Washington next week, a State Department official told RFE/RL.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has ordered intensified attacks in Lebanon, where a heavy Israeli bombardment targeting Hezbollah militants has shaken the US-Iran ceasefire deal.
Along with condemning the actions of Hezbollah — deemed a terrorist organization by the United States — and Iran's attacks throughout the region, many world leaders also assailed Israel for the massive attacks in Lebanon that have killed more than 300 people over the past two days, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry.
The United States and Israel insist that Lebanon was not included in the ceasefire agreement with Tehran, while Iranian officials say it was and that further attacks on its Hezbollah allies will likely break the truce.
The EU's Kallas on April 9 said that "Israeli actions are putting the US-Iran cease-fire under severe strain. The Iran truce should extend to Lebanon."
Israeli strikes on Lebanon are "wrong" and "should stop," Starmer said during his trip to Gulf nations.
