Since August, Ukrainian forces have been struggling to hold onto territory they seized in Russia's Kursk region, part of a cross-border incursion that, despite having unclear tactical aims, surprised Kyiv's Western allies and the Kremlin.
Now Kyiv has launched a new offensive in Kursk, pushing against Russian forces supported by North Korean soldiers who have clawed back more than half of the territory Ukraine captured.
It's not clear why Ukraine is waging a new assault in Kursk, and why now. Ukraine is struggling in multiple locations along the front line. It's outgunned by Russia. It has major problems recruiting and mobilizing enough men to replenish its depleted ranks.
So why expend scarce resources on a new, possibly futile offensive? The goal, experts say, could be to change the narrative of the nearly three-year war.
"Ukraine's center of gravity is U.S. support. Any gains it makes inside Russia will make it harder for the new administration to call the war a lost cause," said John Nagl, a professor at the U.S. Army War College.
Boosting Morale
Ukrainian forces have made limited gains since launching their new assault on January 5. And it remains unclear if it is a feint operation -- designed to draw Russian forces in from elsewhere on the front -- or part of a larger counteroffensive.
Ukraine's incursion into Kursk in August was seen as an attempt to draw Russian forces from eastern Ukraine and slow down their advance.But Kyiv's strategy largely failed as Russia prioritized advances in eastern Ukraine. Moscow also received help from North Korea, which sent some 11,000 troops to Kursk to support Russian forces.
Russian troops have continued to push forward in eastern Ukraine, seizing the town of Vuhledar in October. They are now close to capturing Pokrovsk, an important logistics hub in the Donetsk region.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has defended the incursion into Kursk. But military experts have questioned the move.
"Russian gains in the vicinity of Pokrovsk are militarily significant and have political weight; Kursk is of less military importance," said Nagl, a retired U.S. Army lieutenant colonel.
Nonetheless, gains in Kursk could boost Ukrainian morale and change the battlefield narrative at a critical time in the war. Pessimism has grown over Ukraine's chances with each new town captured by Russia.
It would also be a blow to Russian President Vladimir Putin's image as a "strong man defending Russia," said David Silbey, a professor of military studies at Cornell University.
During the highly choreographed annual call-in with the public in December, Putin promised to drive out Ukrainian forces from the Kursk region, though he did not give a time frame.
Silbey said Ukraine's chances of success in Kursk are higher than in the heavily fortified eastern front. Russia not only has most of its forces deployed in eastern Ukraine but also extensive defensive lines.
"An offensive [in eastern Ukraine] would be a slow grind likely with limited success and heavy casualties, and it would weaken Ukrainian defenses in the area. The Ukrainian units are already wearing down really badly in eastern Ukraine and I don't think Zelenskiy wants to hasten that," added Silbey.
Ukraine is struggling to recruit soldiers, leading to a shortage of manpower along the 1,000-kilometer front line. A shortage of fighters, not weapons, is now the biggest problem for Ukraine's armed forces, experts say.
Silbey said he did not expect Ukraine's offensive in Kursk to last long considering the manpower constraints.
Bargaining Positions
Experts say the aim of Ukraine's new Kursk offensive could also be to boost Kyiv's leverage in any future peace negotiations.
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The fresh Kursk operation comes just two weeks before U.S. President-elect Donald Trump takes office. Trump has pledged to quickly end the war and previously threatened to cut billions in U.S. military aid to Ukraine.
At a news conference on January 7, Trump said he hoped to end the war within six months. He said it will be "tough" to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine but added he is determined to get things "straightened out."
Trump is reportedly seeking to freeze the conflict along the current front line, meaning any gains by either side in the meantime would strengthen their respective bargaining positions.
"In some ways, I see this as the opening salvo in the peace negotiations, getting Ukraine into as strong a position as it can be, and giving more to trade back to Russia at the negotiating table," Silbey said.
