The Kremlin’s read-out of Vladimir Putin’s phone call with US President Donald Trump appeared on its website at 8:15 p.m. Moscow time on March 18: Putin, the readout said, had agreed to a US cease-fire proposal to halt Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure for 30 days.
But even before the call ended, Russian attack drones were in the air.
Within minutes of the call’s conclusion, Ukrainian energy and other targets were being pounded in attacks that continued for hours. Two hospitals -- technically protected under international law – were badly damaged. Ukraine hit an oil pipeline complex in southern Russia.
A day later, on March 19, Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy held their own phone call, and the Ukrainian president said he accepted the proposed cease-fire. But Zelenskyy told reporters that “everything will continue to fly.”
“If the Russians definitely don’t strike our facilities, we won’t hit theirs,” Zelenskyy said.
And they did: Russia launched more than 170 drones at Ukraine early on March 20. Ukraine used long-range drones to attack an air base where Russian long-range bombers are housed and reportedly used a new long-range missile to hit a refinery as well.
In the Sumy region bordering Russia, civilians were forced to evacuate their villages after a barrage of drone and guided missile attacks.
"I didn’t want to leave my home. I’ve lived here for 50 years," one resident said. "But there was no choice in this situation."
It may still be early to judge, but as cease-fires go, this certainly doesn’t look like one. And unless Russian and American “technical teams” set to meet in Saudi Arabia next week can agree on concrete steps to “implement and expand” the deal, it will likely be short-lived as well.
It may still be too early to judge, but as cease-fires go, this certainly doesn’t look like one. And unless Russian and American negotiators can agree on concrete steps -– either in Saudi Arabia on March 24 or subsequent meetings -- it will likely be short-lived as well.
“Neither Russia nor Ukraine have, at this stage, any incentives to decrease the intensity or scale of their operations,” Maria Engqvist, deputy head of the Russia and Eurasia studies program at the Swedish Defense Research Agency, told RFE/RL.
Nikolas Gvosdev, professor of national-security affairs at the US Naval War College, in Newport, Rhode Island, said the strikes that followed the calls were directly connected.
“From Putin's side, it is to show that Russia enjoys escalation dominance and can continue to strike at times/places of its choosing,” Gvosdev told RFE/RL. “From Zelenskyy's side, it is to show that despite Trump saying that Ukraine ‘doesn't have the cards,’ that in fact it still has cards, still has capabilities…and that Ukraine is by no means on the ropes.”
Dick Berlijn, a retired Dutch Air Force general who served as the Netherlands’ top military officer, said Putin has not “given any signs that he really wants a cease-fire.”
“I think the reason why he came up with not [targeting] energy infrastructure is because it hurts him,” Berlijn told RFE/RL. “Most of the energy infrastructure in Ukraine has already been destroyed, but targeting [Russian] energy and infrastructure, especially oil, hurts [Russia].”
'Very Much At Odds With Reality'
Since late 2022, Russia has been hammering Ukraine’s energy industry, using ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as long-range drones, to target power plants, transmission facilities, and substations.
Intended to exhaust Ukraine's civilian population, it’s a strategy often attributed to the former top commander of the Russian invasion, General Sergei Surovikin, whom Russian media once dubbed General Armageddon.
In the face of those attacks, Ukraine has struggled to keep the lights -- and heat -- on, but has managed to muddle through with a mix of local ingenuity and large-scale Western support.
At the same time, Ukraine has ramped up its homegrown industry of drones, which it has increasingly used to target Russia's own energy infrastructure -- oil refineries, pipelines -- not to mention military facilities.
Russia is also concerned about Ukraine’s homegrown, long-range cruise missile, the Neptune. Days before the phone calls, the new missile was used to hit an oil refinery on Russia's Black Sea coast, Zelenskyy claimed.
That gives the Kremlin an incentive to push for its own energy facilities to be taken off Ukrainian targeting lists, Berlijn said.
Speaking to reporters the day after Putin’s call with Trump, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin’s order was implemented immediately. He even claimed Russian forces shot down seven of their own drones as a testament to Russian goodwill.
Military experts, however, cast doubt on Peskov’s claim and pointed out that Russian commanders could have called off the attacks earlier -- and certainly could have avoided targeting hospitals six hours later.
Mutual accusations came just a few hours after the overnight March 20 attacks.
Putin’s pledge was “very much at odds with reality,” Zelenskyy said.
"We believe that this cease-fire, which was proposed by the president of the United States of America, has already been violated by the Kyiv regime,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on state television.
Still, US officials voiced optimism.
“I think we’re closer to peace, cease-fire than we’ve ever been in the last three years,” Keith Kellogg, the White House’s main envoy for Ukraine, told ABC News.
'The Theory Of A Cessation'
Aside from a reservoir of distrust filled by three years of Russia’s all-out war on Ukraine, there’s the question of whether there was agreement the cease-fire would go into effect immediately -- or what the sides even agreed to at all.
“I would be hesitant to call the events that have transpired during the past week even a prelude to a prelude to a proper cease-fire agreement discussion,” Engqvist told RFE/RL. “The trajectory for a ‘deal’ of any kind is highly unstable at the moment. It can still take many turns.”
The Kremlin statement said the deal referred to “energy infrastructure.” The White House, however, said the deal covered “energy and infrastructure.” And Zelenskyy took an even broader view of what should be spared.
“One of the first steps toward fully ending the war could be ending strikes on energy and other civilian infrastructure,” he said in a Telegram post following his call with Trump.
“Both sides are interested in the theory of a cessation,” Gvosdev said.
“Ukraine could take time to rebuild and consolidate, Russia would seek sanctions relief; but neither side has a cease-fire proposal that meets those requirements, and both are unsure as to how far Trump would go to try and compel acquiescence,” he said.
“If Putin really wanted to be sincere in his wish to stop the war, he could stop the war today. He could have stopped the war three years ago,” Berlijn said.
“Putin wants Ukraine back into the Russian Empire," he said. "He doesn't agree with the fact that Ukraine is a sovereign nation, so that all makes it very difficult to come to a peace settlement that is agreeable both for Ukraine and for Russia."
