In late January 2023, a column of Russian vehicles and hundreds of naval infantry ran into a buzz saw of Ukrainian defenses near the Donbas city of Vuhledar, a humiliating defeat that showcased both Ukrainian pluck, but also Russia's frequently ham-handed offensive operations.
Times have changed.
On October 2, the Ukrainian military confirmed it was pulling units out of Vuhledar, in the face of a relentless, monthslong offensive by Russian forces along a wide swathe of Ukraine's eastern Donbas region.
If nothing else, it's a sign of how dire things are looking for Ukraine's military.
Here's what you need to know about the fall of Vuheldar.
Yes, You've Probably Heard Of Vuhledar Before
Located about 90 kilometers southwest Donetsk, a Russian-controlled city and the largest city in the Donbas, Vuhledar is a coal-mining town with a preinvasion population of 14,000 with drab Soviet-style apartment blocks set amid a flat, open landscape.
The city is on a relative height of land, making it ideal for staging artillery and rocket systems, to threaten a major east-west highway, called the T-0509, as well as a major rail line.
In November 2022, nine months after the start of the all-out invasion, Russian forces, led by the Pacific Fleet's 155th Naval Infantry Brigade, pushed into Pavlivka, a smaller town just to the south of Vuhledar. That push was a mess for the brigade, with exceptionally high losses, and a group of officers later published a public letter criticizing unit commanders.
About two months later, in late January, Russian naval infantry units attacked Vuhledar -- and in the process suffered major losses; with various estimates putting Russian casualties in the several hundreds.
To outside observers, the failed effort was emblematic of the deep problems that the Russian military faced, in particular at the level of unit command, where communications and coordination were sclerotic and disjointed.
So What's Going On Now?
Since at least the beginning of 2024, Russian forces have been slowly ramping up momentum across the 1,100-kilometer front line, which stretches from Ukraine's northeastern border near Kharkiv, south toward Vuhledar, then west-southwest toward the Kherson region, on the Dnieper River.
In at least three locations, mainly in the Donbas, Russian troops -- bolstered by an influx of well-compensated volunteer soldiers -- have ground forward, slowly overwhelming Ukrainian defenses in large part by sheer numbers; men and missiles.
In Chasiv Yar, Russian forces have occupied the city's eastern district, but are struggling to cross a canal, to take the remainder of the city. Like Vuhledar, Chasiv Yar sits on relatives heights, and controlling it, would allow Russian forces to threaten Kostyantynivka, a rail hub city to the southwest. Ukrainian forces rely heavily on the rail hub, and nearby highway to ferry men and supplies in and around the Donbas.
About 80 kilometers southwest of Kostyantynivka lies another major stronghold for Ukrainian forces: Pokrovsk. Since at least the summer, Russian forces have been increasingly pummeling the city with air strikes -- including devastating and hard-to-defend-against "glide bombs" -- while on the ground creeping forward from the east, capturing a string of villages.
Russian forces are now fewer than 5 kilometers from the N32 highway, which runs from Pokrovsk to Kostyantynivka. Capturing the highway would cut off a major supply line for Ukrainian forces.
But Ukrainian commanders and planners -- who had been criticized for not prioritizing building defenses and not accelerating recruitment efforts -- managed to bolster lines east of Pokrovsk and slow Russia's advances toward the city over the past two months.
In August, Ukrainian commanders also mounted an audacious cross-border invasion of Russian territory, into the Kursk region; the largest invasion of Russian territory by foreign troops since World War II.
The effort caught Russia -- not to mention all of Ukraine's Western allies -- off-guard, and punched another major hole in the perception that Russia's armed forces and command were formidable or wholly competent.
The Kursk effort, which is still ongoing, was aimed in part at drawing Russian forces from elsewhere in the Donbas, to thin Russian forces and their Donbas offensive, and ease pressure on Ukrainian defenses.
That hasn't happened.
Meanwhile, for its part, Russia appears to have made Vuhledar -- also known as Ugledar in Russian -- a priority, perhaps as a way to flank Ukraine's defenses of Pokrovsk and draw resources away from the main Russian thrust.
On October 1, prominent open-source analysts, including one with ties to the Ukrainian military, said Russian forces had entered Vuhledar. A day later, the Khortytsia strategic grouping announced that commanders had ordered units to withdraw.
"The higher command has given permission to carry out a maneuver to withdraw units from Ugledar for the purpose of preserving personnel and combat equipment, taking up positions for further actions," it said.
Prominent Russian war bloggers posted videos purporting to show Russian soldiers mounting flags outside city buildings, and claiming mopping-up operations were ongoing. The Ukrainian General Staff's morning update on October 2 made no mention of Vuhledar.
Making matters worse for Ukraine: reports that parts of the 72nd Mechanized Brigade -- which has defended the city for around two years now -- had been surrounded, and were in danger of capture.
"I don't want to say they're surrounded, but the situation is difficult, and the pullback is challenging. That's the best way to put it," Ukrainian military analyst Denis Popovych told Current Time.
So How Bad Is Vuhledar's Fall For Ukraine Anyway?
The loss of the city will ratchet up pressure on Ukrainian defenses in Pokrovsk, though first Russian forces will have to battle to take full control of a reservoir outside of Kurakhove, which lies north of Vuhledar and south of Pokrovsk.
Some analysts, including the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War, downplayed the significance of the city's capture. Others noted that the withdrawal would deprive Ukraine of the ability to threaten Russian positions to the east and south.
"In principle, any withdrawal worsens any situation," David Handelman, an Israeli military analyst, told RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service. "Speaking concretely, if you look at the map where it is on the front line, Vuhledar, as compared with Pokrovsk, poses a threat to Russian positions. For a long time, Vuhledar was a boot on the throats of the Russian Army on this front."
"If Russians are able to remove this boat from this neck, it will ease their positions," he said. Pavlo Lakiychuk, a Ukrainian military analyst, says it's an open question whether Russian forces will be able to continue their momentum, particularly given that summer weather is ending, giving way to rains that turned Ukrainian fields into impossibly muddy obstacles.
"Autumn is looming, the situation will be difficult both for the enemy and for us," he told RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service. "If they can expand their advantage, on the wave of their success in taking [Vuhledar], open up their battlefield, it's possible they will have further advances to the northwest."
