Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy came to Brussels on October 17 to present his five point "victory plan," first to EU leaders at a summit in the Belgian capital and later to NATO defense ministers who are convening in another part of town.
And while no one in the two Western organizations has openly dismissed the plan, it's fair to say that the reception has been sympathetic to Kyiv's plight, but ultimately noncommittal.
In fact, the plan is sinking already at point one and two -- Ukraine getting an invitation to join NATO and permission to use long-range weapons given by the West on Russian territory. Kyiv has been angling for these two points for some time now and it simply isn't happening, there are no green lights to be given here and now.
Take the invite. The pitch from Ukraine is that the invitation will come now but that membership will only happen when the war is over in order to assuage fears among NATO members that they'll be dragged into a direct confrontation with Moscow.
Ukraine asked for a variation of this at the NATO Vilnius summit last year and the Washington summit this year. In response, the military alliance just confirmed that the country will be a member sometime in an undefined future and came up with other elaborate wordings about "bridges to membership" or that its "path to membership is irreversible."
When asked about the invite, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte spelled out the same rehearsed lines and underlined everything his organization is doing for the war-torn country. The U.S. ambassador to NATO, Julianne Smith, was equally noncommittal.
There is nothing new to see here. Speaking to sources inside the alliance, the room is and remains divided on it. "We have not moved beyond Vilnius and Washington" is the common refrain.
The same can be said about permission to strike deep inside Russia. This is mainly a U.S. decision, and it seems that Washington isn't too keen to allow it. Zelenskiy came home empty-handed from his trip to the United States in September and nothing appears to have shifted, notably as the elections loom on November 5.
At least here, there could in the future be a limited go-ahead to strike. But don't expect it to be announced loudly in the media beforehand.
With the first couple of point already difficult to deliver, the other three -- containment of Russia via a non-nuclear strategic-deterrent package deployed on Ukrainian soil, joint protection by the United States and the European Union of Ukraine's critical natural resources, and replacing some U.S. troops stationed across Europe with Ukrainian soldiers after the war are rendered moot.
Zelenskiy always knew this would be something of a tough sell. But for now, ahead of what will be a hard and grueling winter, he has gambled by placing the ball in the West's court.
