The Coalition of the Willing, a grouping of over 20 western countries, is inching closer to finalizing plans for some sort of “reassurance force” for Ukraine.
Officials familiar with the talks claim that “discussions have intensified” in recent weeks in European capitals.
Briefing on background after the most recent talks in Paris on September 4, a senior European diplomat notes that there has been “increased enthusiasm” for the initiative compared with earlier this year and that they are making “small steps forward” on several issues.
The sudden jolt of action in recent weeks is down to one big movement: The United States is paying attention to the project. One diplomat speaking under condition of anonymity says that Washington now can be seen as an “observer” of the coalition.
Even though there still isn’t any concrete “American backstop” which the European countries are seeking for the reassurance force to go ahead, they note the US both politically and militarily have indicated that it may be in the making.
In what shape or form still remains to be seen, but it is believed that the most useful asset would be American Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR), most likely from NATO eastern flank countries such as Poland and Romania.
Yet, several unknowns still dominate the planning for a potential force beyond America’s potential role -- crucially the political mandate of a mission and the rules of engagement.
Cease-Fire Required Before Action Takes Place
When it comes to the mandate, two things are clear: The force would only become active if there is a cease-fire and it can only operate upon an invitation from Ukraine.
The latter is pretty straightforward, but the coalition is still keen to point out that this is a decision by Kyiv and Kyiv only and that Russia cannot veto it in any way.
This means that it falls outside the auspices of the United Nations or the OSCE. The coalition is also keen to avoid any form of international force that would include troops from more Kremlin-friendly countries such as Brazil, India, or China.
The cease-fire is a precondition for any boots on the ground, especially as no country is keen to assume any combat roles.
Herein lies something of a dilemma as no European diplomat appears to believe that the war is about to end anytime soon.
Kaja Kallas, the EU foreign policy chief, said recently that she believes that Moscow will ramp up the war effort going into the autumn and winter and various European officials back this up by noting that they see the conflict potentially dragging on for years.
So, what about rules of engagement? So far, there isn’t much agreement on those either. What is clear is that the future force won’t be on the contact line.
The first line of defense is the Ukrainian army, and the reassurance force comes as a second layer. There are still various options, but the idea is that there should be land, sea, and air components.
Turkey is the lead nation when it comes to the sea component, looking at making sure that the Black Sea lanes are free for navigation and potentially being engaged in naval demining.
Britain and France are expected to take the lead when it comes to the land forces and around eight other nations, mainly in the Nordic-Baltic region, have indicated they are ready to put boots on the ground as well.
The goal is to have 25,000-30,000 troops in Ukraine, but it may not go that high. Poland has indicated that its role mainly will be that of a logistic hub for the force, while Germany is still hesitating and would most probably need parliamentary approval to send any military, a potential obstacle that many other nations face as well.
Another dilemma here is many NATO eastern flank nations fear that officers for a future reassurance force will be pulled from the multinational troops of the NATO battalions placed in on their soil in recent years as a response to Russian aggression in Ukraine.
Especially Baltic diplomats have warned that the reassurance force mustn’t create “gaps” in the military alliance’s defense.
The land component of the reassurance force would most likely be placed in western Ukraine, with the Lviv area being the most obvious area.
The Yavoriv military base, which has been used to train Ukrainian troops by Western army personnel before the Russian full-scale invasion, would according to some sources be a natural hub, especially if the reassurance force will have a training component to it.
Other options include placing forces around critical infrastructure such as airports and ports as well as in bigger cities such as Odesa and Kyiv.
The air component still needs to be worked out, but the idea is that the skies over western Ukraine and eventually central Ukraine should be protected.
But here the matter of rules of engagement becomes an issue, as no Western country is ready to, for example, shoot at Russian aircraft if they were to venture over Ukrainian skies -- thus creating a direct confrontation with the Kremlin.
