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With cuts in international aid and rising food and energy prices, more Afghans are likely to struggle to feed their families and keep themselves warm this winter.
With cuts in international aid and rising food and energy prices, more Afghans are likely to struggle to feed their families and keep themselves warm this winter.

Welcome to The Azadi Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that unpacks the key issues in Afghanistan. To subscribe for free, click here.

I'm Frud Bezhan, regional desk editor for Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Here's what I've been tracking and what I'm keeping an eye on in the days ahead.

The Key Issue

Millions of Afghans are bracing for another brutal winter that is likely to further aggravate the devastating humanitarian crisis in the country.

An estimated 15 million people -- out of a population of around 40 million -- are already going hungry. With cuts in international aid and rising food and energy prices, more Afghans are likely to struggle to feed their families and keep themselves warm.

Snowfall has already been reported in parts of eastern and northeastern Afghanistan, a mountainous country where temperatures can drop as low as minus 35 degrees Celsius during the winter.

Afghans who spoke to RFE/RL’s Radio Azadi said they were not prepared for what they described as the brutal months ahead.

"I used to set aside money for our winter expenses,” said Parisa, an unemployed former public servant in Kabul. “But we have nothing. We eat only bread. We don’t have enough money to buy fuel for the winter.”

Why It's Important: The UN World Food Program (WFP) last month said it has been forced to cut food supplies to 10 million Afghans so far this year due to dwindling international funding.

More Afghans are likely to join the estimated 6 million already on the verge of starvation as emergency food aid reaches fewer people.

Afghans have been also grappling with rising costs in the prices of fuel, electricity, and coal.

“I haven’t bought any fuel for the winter because we simply can’t afford it,” Hazrat Ali, a resident of the eastern province of Logar, told Radio Azadi. “There’s no work and a lot of unemployment. Firewood and coal have also become more expensive.”

What's Next: International humanitarian operations in Afghanistan were boosted after the European Union and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) announced late last month that they would provide nearly $550 million in funding.

The new funding will likely help aid agencies prevent a humanitarian catastrophe during the winter. But international funding for humanitarian organizations in Afghanistan is not guaranteed in the long run.

What To Keep An Eye On

Iran has deported over 100,000 Afghan refugees and migrants in the past three months, according to local Taliban officials in the southwestern province of Nimroz.

Afghans who were recently deported told Radio Azadi that they were mistreated and harassed by Iranian border guards.

“They did not give us bread or water during the two days that they imprisoned us,” said Abdul Salam, who illegally entered Iran two months ago and found a job as a laborer in Iran’s southeastern city of Zahedan.

“They held us in a room and then took us outside,” he added. “They left us in the scorching sun from morning to evening. We couldn't get up. When we stood up, they kicked us in the back.”

Why It's Important: The deportations coincide with Iran’s recent announcement that it will deport the 5 million Afghans it claims are living “illegally” in the Islamic republic.

Iran’s decision came as Pakistan gave a November 1 deadline to an estimated 1.7 million undocumented Afghans to leave the country or risk being deported.

The forced deportations of millions of impoverished Afghans are likely to worsen the humanitarian situation in Afghanistan.

The cash-strapped Taliban government, which is under international sanctions, is unlikely to be able to absorb millions of returning refugees and migrants.

That's all from me for now. Don't forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you have. You can always reach us at azadi.english@rferl.org.

Until next time,

Frud Bezhan

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe for free here. It will be sent to your inbox every Friday.

An Afghan girl and her mother cross an open sewer at a refugee camp in Karachi. Pakistan has said that it plans to deport over 1 million Afghans living in the country who do not have valid residency documents.
An Afghan girl and her mother cross an open sewer at a refugee camp in Karachi. Pakistan has said that it plans to deport over 1 million Afghans living in the country who do not have valid residency documents.

Welcome to The Azadi Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that unpacks the key issues in Afghanistan. To subscribe, click here.

I'm Abubakar Siddique, a senior correspondent at RFE/RL's Radio Azadi. Here's what I've been tracking and what I'm keeping an eye on in the days ahead.

The Key Issue

Iran and Pakistan have announced separate plans to forcefully deport millions of undocumented Afghan refugees and migrants.

Iranian Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi said on September 27 that 5 million Afghans who he said were living “illegally” in the Islamic republic will be deported.

Vahidi said the authorities were “close to implementing the plan,” although he did not provide further details.

Imran, an Afghan living in Iran’s southwestern city of Shiraz, told Radio Azadi that the authorities were already “gathering Afghans from cities irrespective of whether they have legal documents or not."

Meanwhile, Pakistani Foreign Minster Jalil Abbas Jilani said on September 28 that Islamabad plans to deport over 1 million Afghans who do not have valid residency documents.

Even before their announcements, Tehran and Islamabad have detained and deported thousands of undocumented Afghans in recent years.

Iran and Pakistan have hosted millions of Afghan refugees since the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. The Taliban’s seizure of power in 2021 fueled another exodus, with an estimated 3.6 million Afghans fleeing their homeland. Around 70 percent of them escaped to Iran, according to the United Nations.

Why It's Important: The forced deportations of millions of impoverished Afghans is likely to further aggravate the devastating humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan, where millions are on the verge of starvation.

The Taliban government is unlikely to be able to absorb millions of returning refugees and migrants.

The forced deportations of Afghan migrants, many of whom send remittances back to their families, is also likely to cause a financial shock to many households.

Some Afghans, including journalists, activists, and members of the former Afghan government and security forces, could face reprisals from the Taliban if they return to their homeland.

Iran and Pakistan’s plans to deport undocumented Afghans come amid their worsening ties with the Taliban.

Taliban fighters have been engaged in separate deadly border clashes with Iranian and Pakistani forces in recent months. Islamabad has accused the Taliban of harboring anti-Pakistan militants, while Tehran has sparred with the Taliban over cross-border water resources.

What's Next: The UN has called for all returns to Afghanistan to be voluntary and urged neighboring countries to offer protection to Afghans seeking security.

But with Iran and Pakistan grappling with economic crises -- and as tensions with the Taliban escalate -- both countries appear unlikely to continue hosting millions of Afghans.

What To Keep An Eye On

Russia appears to have signaled a renewed interest in Afghanistan.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s special envoy for Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, called on the Taliban to form an “ethnopolitical inclusive government" in Kabul, in a move that he said could lead to Moscow potentially recognizing the Taliban government.

Kabulov’s comments came ahead of the meeting of the so-called Moscow Format, a regional forum on Afghanistan, on September 29. Launched in 2017, the format brings together regional powers and Afghanistan’s neighbors with the stated aim of bringing peace to Afghanistan.

Why It's Important: By hosting the regional conference, Moscow could be signaling its desire to be a player in Afghanistan.

Last month, Moscow hosted Ahmad Massud, the exiled leader of the National Resistant Front of Afghanistan (NRF), an anti-Taliban armed group.

The NRF is the largest group fighting the Taliban but has struggled to attract foreign support. Massud’s visit was seen as an effort to win support for the NRF and pressure the Taliban.

Washington has categorically ruled out support for a new armed conflict in Afghanistan.

That's all from me for now. Don't forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you have.

Until next time,

Abubakar Siddique

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Friday.

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Radio Azadi is RFE/RL's Dari- and Pashto-language public service news outlet for Afghanistan. Every Friday in our newsletter, the Azadi Briefing, correspondent Abubakar Siddique shares his analysis of the week’s most important issues and explain why they matter.

To subscribe, click here.

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