Azadi Briefing

Welcome to The Azadi Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that unpacks the key issues in Afghanistan. To subscribe, click here.

I'm Abubakar Siddique, a senior correspondent at RFE/RL's Radio Azadi. Here's what I've been tracking and what I'm keeping an eye on in the days ahead.

The Key Issue

Iran and Pakistan have announced separate plans to forcefully deport millions of undocumented Afghan refugees and migrants.

Iranian Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi said on September 27 that 5 million Afghans who he said were living “illegally” in the Islamic republic will be deported.

Vahidi said the authorities were “close to implementing the plan,” although he did not provide further details.

Imran, an Afghan living in Iran’s southwestern city of Shiraz, told Radio Azadi that the authorities were already “gathering Afghans from cities irrespective of whether they have legal documents or not."

Meanwhile, Pakistani Foreign Minster Jalil Abbas Jilani said on September 28 that Islamabad plans to deport over 1 million Afghans who do not have valid residency documents.

Even before their announcements, Tehran and Islamabad have detained and deported thousands of undocumented Afghans in recent years.

Iran and Pakistan have hosted millions of Afghan refugees since the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. The Taliban’s seizure of power in 2021 fueled another exodus, with an estimated 3.6 million Afghans fleeing their homeland. Around 70 percent of them escaped to Iran, according to the United Nations.

Why It's Important: The forced deportations of millions of impoverished Afghans is likely to further aggravate the devastating humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan, where millions are on the verge of starvation.

The Taliban government is unlikely to be able to absorb millions of returning refugees and migrants.

The forced deportations of Afghan migrants, many of whom send remittances back to their families, is also likely to cause a financial shock to many households.

Some Afghans, including journalists, activists, and members of the former Afghan government and security forces, could face reprisals from the Taliban if they return to their homeland.

Iran and Pakistan’s plans to deport undocumented Afghans come amid their worsening ties with the Taliban.

Taliban fighters have been engaged in separate deadly border clashes with Iranian and Pakistani forces in recent months. Islamabad has accused the Taliban of harboring anti-Pakistan militants, while Tehran has sparred with the Taliban over cross-border water resources.

What's Next: The UN has called for all returns to Afghanistan to be voluntary and urged neighboring countries to offer protection to Afghans seeking security.

But with Iran and Pakistan grappling with economic crises -- and as tensions with the Taliban escalate -- both countries appear unlikely to continue hosting millions of Afghans.

What To Keep An Eye On

Russia appears to have signaled a renewed interest in Afghanistan.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s special envoy for Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, called on the Taliban to form an “ethnopolitical inclusive government" in Kabul, in a move that he said could lead to Moscow potentially recognizing the Taliban government.

Kabulov’s comments came ahead of the meeting of the so-called Moscow Format, a regional forum on Afghanistan, on September 29. Launched in 2017, the format brings together regional powers and Afghanistan’s neighbors with the stated aim of bringing peace to Afghanistan.

Why It's Important: By hosting the regional conference, Moscow could be signaling its desire to be a player in Afghanistan.

Last month, Moscow hosted Ahmad Massud, the exiled leader of the National Resistant Front of Afghanistan (NRF), an anti-Taliban armed group.

The NRF is the largest group fighting the Taliban but has struggled to attract foreign support. Massud’s visit was seen as an effort to win support for the NRF and pressure the Taliban.

Washington has categorically ruled out support for a new armed conflict in Afghanistan.

That's all from me for now. Don't forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you have.

Until next time,

Abubakar Siddique

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Friday.

Welcome to The Azadi Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that unpacks the key issues in Afghanistan. To subscribe, click here.

I'm Abubakar Siddique, a senior correspondent at RFE/RL's Radio Azadi. Here's what I've been tracking and what I'm keeping an eye on in the days ahead.

The Key Issue

International humanitarian operations in Afghanistan were boosted after the European Union and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) announced they would provide nearly $550 million in funding.

The ADB has approved $400 million “in grants to protect the welfare and livelihoods of vulnerable Afghan people, particularly women and girls, and ease the adverse impact of the ongoing humanitarian crisis.”

The EU has agreed to release more than $149 million of humanitarian assistance “in the fields of education, health, agriculture, and women's economic empowerment in Afghanistan.”

The announcement follows desperate calls for funding after the UN warned that millions among the nearly 30 million Afghans dependent on humanitarian aid will go hungry if they don’t receive urgent humanitarian funding.

“In Afghanistan, WFP has been forced to end life-saving aid for 10 million people,” Cindy McCain, the executive director of the UN World Food Program (WFP), warned on X, formerly known as Twitter, on September 19. “This is what a funding crisis means: no $$, no food.”

In August, the International Rescue Committee, a U.S. nongovernmental organization, said Afghanistan had only received 23 percent of this year's $4.6 billion proposed humanitarian funding.

Why It's Important: These announcements are welcome news for aid workers attempting to save lives in one of the largest humanitarian crises in the world.

The UN estimates that more than two-thirds of Afghanistan's estimated 40 million people need humanitarian assistance. The WFP estimates that more than 3 million Afghans are at risk of famine.

The Taliban's return to power in August 2021 quickly worsened the vast humanitarian crisis millions faced. The impoverished country lost Western aid, which was financing more than 70 percent of the government budget. The economy collapsed as sanctions kicked in against the Taliban leaders.

Yet the UN and international NGOs prevented thousands of deaths and starvation by quickly responding to the humanitarian crisis after utilizing generous funds from Western donors.

What's Next: New funding will help aid agencies prevent a humanitarian catastrophe during the winter, which begins with the first snowfall in November.

However, Western funding for humanitarian organizations in Afghanistan is not guaranteed in the long run. Domestic pressure is likely to prevent Western governments from giving money to a country where the Taliban government has even banned women from working for international aid groups after banning their education and work.

Longer term, Afghanistan's economy is unlikely to quickly turn around under the Taliban's unrecognized government.

What To Keep An Eye On

The caretaker Taliban government is working on a new constitution to establish a permanent government and consultative bodies.

The Taliban’s chief justice, Abdul Hakim Haqqani, is leading the process of writing a constitution, which is under wraps.

“We are still working on the supreme law as we debate [the role of the consultative] councils,” said Zabihullah Mujahid, chief Taliban spokesman. “Once finalized, it will revive all the aspects of governance.”

After seizing power two years ago, the Taliban has imposed a caretaker government comprised of top Taliban leaders, which has been ruling in a legal vacuum by suspending the country’s 2004 constitution.

Why It's Important: Few Afghans believe the Taliban constitution will be framed and adopted in any kind of a democratic, consultative process.

They are concerned that it will be yet another step toward permanently imposing a government by the group that has taken away most fundamental rights and freedoms from Afghans.

“This law is unlikely to be a recipe for a self-governing democratic polity that will pave the way for the international recognition of the Taliban government,” Attiqur Rahman Habib, an Afghan legal expert, told RFE/RL’s Radio Azadi.

That's all from me for now. Don't forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you have.

Until next time,

Abubakar Siddique

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Friday.