China In Eurasia

Welcome back to the China In Eurasia briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter tracking China’s resurgent influence from Eastern Europe to Central Asia.

Before we start, a few housekeeping notes: Talking China In Eurasia, my new podcast, will be back in January. In the meantime, you can listen to previous episodes on RFE/RL’s website, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and wherever else you like to listen. I’m also headed to vacation this week, so this will also be the last newsletter of the year. See you in 2023!

I’m RFE/RL correspondent Reid Standish and here’s what I’m following right now.

Beijing's New Bargain In Central Asia

Russia's invasion of Ukraine sent geopolitical shock waves around Central Asia and is changing long-standing assumptions about the balance of power between Beijing and Moscow in the region.

Finding Perspective: In a deal that was met with little fanfare, Tajikistan last month agreed to carry out regular anti-terrorism drills with Chinese security forces on its territory.

The agreement formalizes the growing military cooperation between the two countries, but as I reported here, it also provides a glimpse into Beijing's evolving ambitions for Central Asia in the aftermath of Russia’s war.

Central Asian nations continue to look for ways to distance themselves from their traditional ally in Moscow, but doing so is proving to be a complicated high-wire act.

As Temur Umarov, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, explained to me, Central Asian leaders are all looking to diversify their partners, but there’s a growing tension between the desire to branch out from historic ties to Russia while also looking to avoid a strong backlash from Moscow in response.

“There's still lots of sensitivity here [in Central Asia]. The region has never been in the middle of two fires like it is now,” Umarov told me.

Why It Matters: The outreach hasn’t been limited to China, but Beijing offers the path of least resistance for Central Asia.

A flurry of diplomatic activity has been under way with Turkey, the Middle East, and increasingly with Europe, but Russia remains wary of any meaningful Western inroads.

China has been a rising political and economic force in Central Asia for decades, and deepening ties between Beijing and Moscow mean that a growing embrace of China by regional leaders is at least palatable for the Kremlin. This makes Beijing the safest way forward.

“Russia can accept China's growing security presence in [Central Asia], and the Kremlin understands that in many ways this is an inevitable process beyond its control,” Umarov said.

Read More

● Central Asia is grappling with energy shortages. Read my colleague Chris Rickleton’s dispatch from Kazakhstan about what’s at stake for the region this winter.

● A growing number of Russian electronics manufacturers are struggling as they find themselves cut off from Western processors due to sanctions. There has been some hope that China could fill the void, but that looks increasingly unlikely. According to a report by the Russian newspaper Kommersant, China has banned the export of its military-grade Loongson processors to Russia.

Expert Corner: China Still Careful On Russia Sanctions

Readers asked: “Will China help Russia evade sanctions in 2023?”

To find out more, I asked former U.S. Treasury official Peter Piatetsky, who is now the CEO of the consultancy Castellum.AI:

“China is unlikely to help Russia to evade sanctions in any significant way. Although China will continue to buy Russian oil at a discount, Beijing has actually instructed its bank to cut back business with Russia, and unlike North Korea and Iran, China has declined to send weapons to Russia. China and Russia both see the United States as an enemy, but they also see each other as competitors, and China sees a weakened Russia as a benefit because that allows China to expand its influence in [neighboring regions like] Central Asia.”

Do you have a question about China’s growing footprint in Eurasia? Send it to me at StandishR@rferl.org or reply directly to this e-mail and I’ll get it answered by leading experts and policymakers.

Three More Stories From Eurasia

1. An Attack On The 'Chinese Hotel' In Kabul

Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K), the Afghan branch of the extremist group, claimed a December 12 attack on a Kabul hotel known for housing Chinese nationals, RFE/RL’s Radio Azadi reports.

What You Need To Know: Details are still emerging, but at least three assailants were killed and 21 other people were wounded, according to a Taliban spokesman. Other reports have said that some of the wounded have since died from their injuries while in the hospital.

The assault comes as IS-K has stepped up attacks since the Taliban retook control of the country in August 2021 and increasingly took aim at China in its propaganda.

Lucas Webber, the co-founder and editor of Militant Wire, a research outlet tracking extremist groups, told me that this marks the first official militant operation by the group against Chinese nationals and interests in Afghanistan.

The Taliban has turned to China for investment in its lucrative mining sector, humanitarian aid, and help in gaining international legitimacy since retaking power, but Beijing has moved cautiously in Afghanistan due to the tenuous security situation.

The day before the attack, Wang Yu, China's ambassador to Kabul, met with Taliban officials and called on the group “to pay more attention to the security of the Chinese Embassy in Kabul.” On December 13, the Chinese Foreign Ministry called for all of its citizens to leave Afghanistan.

Webber says that IS-K is pursuing a strategy to humiliate the Taliban by targeting high-profile targets that could damage its legitimacy, with Chinese nationals and interests increasingly in the crosshairs.

“This exposes the Taliban’s inability to even secure its guests in the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan’s own capital city,” he told me. “The ‘Chinese Hotel’ assault, the rocket attacks against Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, the suicide bombing at the Russian Embassy, and the shooting at Pakistan’s embassy are…[intended] to undermine international confidence in the Taliban’s capacity to ensure domestic security.”

2. Chinese-Style Surveillance Back On The Books In Serbia

Serbia’s Interior Ministry has put forward a new draft law that could finally legalize mass biometric surveillance in the country and open the door for a rollout of thousands of facial recognition cameras purchased from Huawei, Iva Martinovic from RFE/RL’s Balkan Service reports.

What It Means: The new so-called law on internal affairs is nearly identical to one put forward by the ministry in September 2021 that was eventually withdrawn after generating pushback and controversy on Belgrade at home and abroad.

Among several contentious provisions, the draft law could provide carte blanche for mass biometric surveillance in the Balkan country and finally allow the government to fully deploy the facial recognition capable surveillance cameras it bought from the Chinese telecoms giant Huawei.

Rights groups have already sounded the alarm, saying that the draft ignores many of the concerns raised by them over privacy and abuse of the data collected.

Beyond the issue of surveillance, the document also contains provisions that give the police the right to enter apartments and other premises without a warrant and ways to limit journalists' right to confidential sources.

Public discussion remains open on the draft law until December 31, where it could then be turned into official legislation.

For a deeper look at the concerns for misuse of Chinese surveillance tech by Serbian authorities, read RFE/RL’s recent two part investigation (Part One and Part Two) on the issue and listen to the most recent episode of Talking China In Eurasia.

3. Pakistan Leads New Index On Chinese Influence

Pakistan is the country in the world that is the most influenced by China, according to a new database compiled by Doublethink Lab, a Taiwan-based research organization.

The Details: The China Index ranked the South Asian country atop a list of 82 other countries around the world, saying that its links to and dependency on Beijing in terms of foreign and domestic policy, technology, and the economy make it particularly susceptible to Chinese influence.

Behind Pakistan, Southeast Asia features prominently in the rankings, with Cambodia and Singapore listed in second and third, followed by Thailand. The Philippines is seventh and Malaysia is 10th. South Africa is the first African country at No. 5, where it is tied with Peru, the highest-ranked South American country.

Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are the Central Asian countries most influenced by Beijing, coming in at eighth and ninth place on the index.

Meanwhile, Germany is the highest-ranked European country at 19th, and the United States leads North America in 21st position.

Read my interview with Min Hsuan-Wu, the co-founder and CEO of Doublethink Lab, here and explore the database for a closer look.

Across The Supercontinent

Quashed: The Kremlin had previously pushed for the creation of a “gas union” with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, and potentially other countries like China.

However, Kazakh Energy Minister Bolat Akchulakov said that while Kazakhstan is cooperating closely with Moscow and Tashkent on gas transit, there are no discussions about forming a union, RFE/RL’s Kazakh Service reports.

Beijing's Man In Brussels: A year after the previous Chinese ambassador left, Fu Cong has arrived as Beijing's new ambassador to the European Union. Finbarr Bermingham from the South China Morning Post explains more here about what to expect from the new Chinese envoy.

Fishing In The Gulf: Chinese leader Xi Jinping made a landmark visit to Saudi Arabia where he told Arab leaders in attendance for a summit that Beijing would work to buy oil and gas in yuan.

The visit to Riyadh pushed the Chinese-Saudi relationship forward in a big way and the call from Beijing to use the yuan is part of a larger effort to establish its currency internationally and weaken the U.S. dollar's grip on world trade.

Road Warriors: China Railway Wuju Group Corporation (CRWG) signed a $57 million contract with Tajikistan’s Sughd region to build a new 51-kilometer stretch of highway, RFE/RL’s Tajik Service reports.

One Thing To Watch

Following a wave of unprecedented protests over strict COVID restrictions, Chinese officials have begun to ease the country’s hard-line strategy.

However, warnings are now rising over the potential for a massive spike in cases. Tight rules have kept transmission in control but suppressed natural immunity in the process.

Intensive care units are already under strain in some large centers, with some experts calling into question Beijing’s officials figures, which could be hiding a wider outbreak.

That’s all from me for now. Don’t forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you might have.

Until next time,

Reid Standish

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Pakistan is the country in the world that is the most influenced by China, according to a new study that measures Beijing's expanding global sway.

The China Index -- a database relaunched on December 8 by Doublethink Lab, a Taiwan-based research organization -- ranks the South Asian country atop a list of 82 other countries around the world, saying that its links to and dependency on Beijing in terms of foreign and domestic policy, technology, and the economy make it particularly susceptible to Chinese influence.

Behind Pakistan, Southeast Asia features prominently in the rankings, with Cambodia and Singapore listed in second and third, followed by Thailand. The Philippines is seventh and Malaysia is 10th. South Africa is the first African country at No. 5, where it is tied with Peru, the highest-ranked South American country.

Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, which border China's western Xinjiang Province, are the Central Asian countries most influenced by Beijing, coming in at eighth and ninth place on the index.

Meanwhile, Germany is the highest-ranked European country at 19th and the United States leads North America in 21st position.

"A major goal of [of this database] is to raise awareness around the world about the different aspects of Chinese influence and what that can actually look like," Min Hsuan-Wu, the co-founder and CEO of Doublethink Lab, told RFE/RL. "We've taken a much broader and nuanced look at what influence can be, which can tell us more about what Beijing is actually doing and the different ways it can apply pressure."

In compiling the China Index, the research team focused on nine categories to track influence around the world that include higher education, domestic politics, economic ties, foreign policy, law enforcement, media, military cooperation, cultural links, and technology.

Wu says that this type of system leads to a more subtle understanding that challenges some assumptions about the levers of Chinese influence, most crucially around economics and trade.

"There's no one clear pattern for how China influences a country, but from the data we compiled, the economy isn't the determinative one," he said. "You can be economically independent but be tied in other ways, like with the military or a large Chinese diaspora that can be more influential."

Spotlight On Pakistan, Central Asia

Given the diverse factors shaping the ranking system, Pakistan's leading position is no surprise to longtime observers of the country's relationship with Beijing, which was forged in the early days of the Cold War.

The South Asian country is home to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, a centerpiece of Beijing's globe-spanning Belt and Road Initiative in which Chinese entities have funded and built hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of infrastructure projects in the last decade.

Pakistan's ties with China, however, have ballooned across nearly every category used to compile its ranking in the index, especially when it comes to areas like military ties, technology, and foreign policy.

SEE ALSO:

China's Belt And Road Grapples With Mounting Debt Crisis, Impacting Central Asia, Pakistan, And Beyond

Shahzeb Jillani, a veteran journalist who helped compile research on Pakistan used for the database, says that many Pakistanis may be surprised to see their country ranking so high, but he hopes the findings will lead to greater debate and reflection about Islamabad's deepening ties with Beijing.

"One can only hope that this will encourage Pakistanis to debate the pros and cons of the relationship and what it could mean for the future," he said.

Central Asia has also seen its relationship with Beijing expand in recent years.

SEE ALSO:

Xi Showcases China's Eurasian Vision With Central Asian Tour, Putin Meeting

While trade and investment were an early impetus, Chinese influence now plays a growing role in foreign policy, local media, and increasingly in defense and security. Following Russia's February invasion of Ukraine, many analysts also see Central Asian countries deepening their China ties as they seek to diversify from Moscow.

While Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan rank in the top 10, Kazakhstan holds 15th place in the rankings, with Uzbekistan in the 24th spot, and Turkmenistan -- which sells a large portion of its natural gas to China but remains geopolitically isolated -- in 45th position.

Measuring Influence

Though the database includes just 82 countries, Doublethink Lab plans to expand it in the future, especially across Africa, another area of rising Chinese influence recently, and to Russia, which declared a "no limits" partnership with Beijing in February.

Wu says he hopes the China Index will be a valuable tool for comparison that can be used by researchers, activists, journalists, and watchdog groups around the world to get a better snapshot of the complex factors affecting their regions and the nuanced ways influence can be exercised.

For instance, Britain is ranked the second-highest European country, 27th on the index. It is something that Martin Thorley, an independent academic who did research on the United Kingdom for the database, says is the result of local engagement through academia and ties forged between British cities and regions with their Chinese counterparts over the years, rather than at the state level.

Wu adds that it's hard to discern exactly how one country gets influenced more than another and that there's no definitive "playbook" for Chinese influence. Rather, he says the recent research shows that Chinese policymakers tend to target certain countries within a region that have a lower barrier to entry and then branch outwards to neighbors based on the opportunities available.

"There are some countries in every region that rank high on our index and can be seen as an entry point," Wu said. "There's lots of collaboration through one country and then it expands out."