The Farda Briefing

Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, a new RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter.

I'm senior correspondent Golnaz Esfandiari. Here's what I've been following and what I'm watching out for in the days ahead.

The Big Issue

The powerful intelligence arm of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), the elite branch of the armed forces, is undergoing a significant housecleaning. Ebrahim Jabbari, the head of the IRGC unit in charge of protecting Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was replaced on June 27. Days earlier, the IRGC’s longtime intelligence chief, hard-line cleric Hossein Taeb, was removed. The surprise moves are the biggest reshuffle in the feared intelligence branch of the IRGC for years.

Why It Matters: The housecleaning is believed to be linked to growing infighting within the IRGC and the hard-line political camp as well as Iran’s failure to thwart a series of suspected Israeli attacks, including on its nuclear and military sites and personnel. Jabbari served as a deputy to Taeb during his tenure as head of the IRGC’s Basij militia force from 2007 to 2009. His removal could be an attempt by the IRGC to get rid of those close to Taeb, who led the IRGC’s intelligence branch for 13 years. Both Jabbari and Taeb are believed to be close to Mojtaba Khamenei, the influential son of the supreme leader who has been mentioned as a possible successor to his elderly father despite his lack of credentials.

What’s Next: There is likely to be more reshuffling in the IRGC’s intelligence arm in the days and weeks ahead. It is unclear if and how the shake-up will affect the role of the IRGC’s intelligence branch whose power has grown in recent years. Taeb’s future is also worth watching as it could offer clues about whether he will be cast aside or moved to another key position, as some hard-liners have claimed. For now, his appointment as an adviser to IRGC chief Hossein Salami appears to be a demotion.

Stories You Might Have Missed

-- Iran’s steel industry was the target of a major cyberattack on June 27. Three major steel companies were hit, disrupting their operations. A group calling itself Predatory Sparrow claimed responsibility. The group also claimed a cyberattack in October on Iran’s fuel distribution system that paralyzed gas stations nationwide. Hacker attacks on important and sensitive infrastructure in Iran have increased significantly in recent years. Iran’s railway system, an Iranian airline, the Tehran municipality, and state television have all been the targets of damaging cyberattacks in recent months. Experts have said that many of the incidents bear the hallmarks of state-sponsored attacks.

-- Activist and translator Anisha Asadollahi and her husband Keyvan Mohtadi have spent more than 50 days in detention. Asadollahi, an engineer, and Mohtadi, a worker’s rights activist, were arrested on May 9 on unknown charges. In a video published online, Asadollahi’s mother said the authorities had arrested “the country’s brightest to compensate for your own ineptitude and incompetence.” Asadollahi and Mohtadi were arrested after they worked as translators for two French nationals in Tehran. The 37-year-old Cecile Kohler and her 69-year-old partner, Jacques Paris, were arrested and charged with seeking to foment unrest in Iran. The arrests came as authorities tried to suppress anti-government protests in cities across the country against skyrocketing inflation.

What We're Watching

The United States and Iran are holding indirect talks in Qatar. The discussions come amid a push by the European Union to break an impasse in negotiations to revive the 2015 nuclear deal. The negotiations come after a trip to Tehran by EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell. The talks in Doha will complement broader EU-mediated negotiations that have taken place in Vienna between Iran and major powers. Ahead of the negotiations in Doha, France said that it wants Iran and Venezuela, both under U.S. sanctions, to be allowed to sell their oil in international markets to help stabilize rising prices amid Russia’s unprovoked war on Ukraine.

Why It Matters: The talks in Qatar are significant because they are the first since March, when negotiations in Vienna between Tehran and world powers were halted amid a deadlock. Since then, Iran has continued to enrich highly enriched uranium as it nears nuclear weapons capability. Despite the high stakes, many observers have downplayed the likelihood of a breakthrough in Qatar, a scenario that will further rachet up tensions between Iran and the West.

That’s all from me for now. Don't hesitate to send us any questions, comments, or tips that you have by responding to this e-mail or separately to newsletters@rferl.org.

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, we invite you to check out the improved Farda website in English and its dedicated Twitter account, which showcase all of our compelling journalism from Iran. And Farda's YouTube playlist is also worth a look.

Until next time,

Golnaz Esfandiari

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. Please note that due to public holidays the next briefing will be issued on July 13.

Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, a new RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter.

I'm Hannah Kaviani, a senior broadcaster and editor at RFE/RL's Radio Farda. Here's what I’ve been following and what I’m watching out for in the days ahead.

The Big Issue

Tensions are soaring between Iran and Israel, its regional foe. This comes as Israel is suspected of carrying out a recent spate of assassinations and sabotage attacks inside the Islamic republic. Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) on June 20 said the death of a Defense Ministry engineer in May was the result of "industrial sabotage," not simply an "accident," as officials previously suggested.

The New York Times reported that the engineer had been killed in a suspected Israeli drone attack. Last month, Tehran blamed Israel for the killing of an IRGC colonel outside his home in the Iranian capital and vowed revenge.

Why It Matters: Tensions have flared as negotiations aimed at reviving the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers remain deadlocked. In the absence of a deal that would curb Iran’s sensitive nuclear activities in exchange for the lifting of U.S. sanctions, Tehran has reduced its commitments and expanded its nuclear activities.

There are fears in the West that Tehran is close to amassing enough highly enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon. If Iran does acquire a nuclear weapon, Israel is likely to launch military strikes inside the Islamic republic, a worst-case scenario that could trigger a wider conflict in the region.

What's Next: In the wake of suspected Israeli assassinations and sabotage attacks, calls have grown in Iran for a tough response. Some hard-liners have advocated for military strikes against Israel. The hard-line Resalat newspaper called for a “hard blow” against Israel. Iran is likely to target Israeli citizens or interests in the region.

As Iranian rhetoric intensifies, Israel has warned its citizens not to travel to Turkey. Israel has already claimed that it has thwarted attacks against Israeli tourists in Istanbul. Some Iranian observers have cautioned that Iranian retaliation is likely to harm rather than benefit Tehran’s interests.

Stories You Might Have Missed

-- Rights activist Maryam Karimbeigi was arrested by Iranian security forces after they raided her family’s home. Karimbeigi’s brother, Mostafa, was killed in the state crackdown that followed mass street protests over the disputed 2009 presidential election. Karimbeigi was arrested on June 14, and she has been on a hunger strike since. Shahnaz Akmali, Karimbeigi's mother, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda that her daughter had been under pressure by authorities as she sought justice for her brother’s death.

-- During a visit to a domestic aircraft manufacturer, President Ebrahim Raisi called on the company to intensify its efforts to build passenger planes. His comments on June 16 triggered skepticism and mockery among Iranian social media users. Due to U.S. sanctions, Iran has been unable to renew its aging fleet or import spare parts to maintain its aircraft. Days after Raisi’s comments, an Iranian-owned, U.S.-made F-14 fighter jet crashed during a military exercise, the second such incident in the past month. Tehran acquired the jets before the Islamic Revolution in 1979.

What We're Watching

Iran has been hit by near-daily protests by workers angered by soaring living costs in the Islamic republic. Authorities have tolerated some of the rallies, but they have cracked down on the teachers’ protests.

The Iranian Teachers' Union's Coordination Council said that more than 100 teachers were detained on June 16 for participating in widespread protests demanding the release of other imprisoned teachers and better working conditions. Some are still in detention, where they have launched hunger strikes. A decision by authorities to increase taxes on the private sector has led to strikes by merchants and shopkeepers at bazaars.

Why It Matters: Hamstrung by crippling U.S. sanctions and years of government mismanagement, Iran’s economy is unlikely to improve if the nuclear deal is not revived. In the meantime, discontent will grow, and more Iranians are likely to join the protests over living conditions.

As of now, teachers, pensioners and retirees, truck drivers, bus workers, taxi drivers, merchants, and shopkeepers are among those taking to the streets to vent their anger and frustration at authorities. The rallies at Iran’s bazaars, in particular, are ominous. Rallies at the markets have often been the trigger for bigger and more significant protests in the past.

That’s all from me for now. Don't hesitate to send us any questions, comments, or tips that you have by writing to newsletters@rferl.org

We invite you to check out the improved Farda website in English and its dedicated Twitter account, which showcase all of our compelling journalism from Iran. And Farda's YouTube playlist is also worth a look.

Until next time,

Hannah Kaviani

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your in-box every Wednesday.

*CORRECTION: A previous version of this article inferred that Tel Aviv is the capital of Israel. The text has been changed.