The Farda Briefing

Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter.

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Kian Sharifi. In this edition I'm looking at how Iran's threats to go nuclear and its insistence on indirect talks with the United States are frustrating the West, with France warning military action is becoming "inevitable."

What You Need To Know

• Doubling Down On Nuclear Threats: Ali Larijani, a senior aide to Iran's supreme leader, has warned that military action against the Islamic republic would push Tehran to develop nuclear weapons. Meanwhile, France has raised the alarm over Iran's nuclear program, warning that if there is no deal by October military confrontation would be "almost inevitable."

• Alleged Bank Hacking Fuels Outrage: Iran's Sepah Bank was allegedly hacked by the Codebreakers group last week, exposing the data of 42 million customers, including high-profile accounts. Sepah Bank has denied any breach, insisting its systems are secure and "unhackable." The breach has fueled online outrage over economic inequality and Iran's cybersecurity weaknesses. The alleged compromised data includes information related to members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).

• Sociologist Faces Backlash After Criticizing Khamenei: Iranian sociologist Mostafa Mehraeen sparked controversy after publishing two open letters criticizing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. In the first, he urged Khamenei to acknowledge mistakes, apologize, and step down, leading to legal action and a court summons. In his second letter, he questioned Khamenei's belief in his divine mission. In an interview with RFE/RL's Radio Farda, he praised the "strength" of Iranian society, crediting it for giving him the "courage" to address Khamenei.

The Big Issue

Friends Or Enemies -- Pick One

Larijani, a senior adviser to Khamenei, said on April 1 that the United States could either approach Iran as an economic partner or treat it as the enemy.

"They can talk about economic benefits and have fair cooperation with Iran on economic issues that benefit both," he said in a televised interview.

But Larijani, a former parliament speaker and ex-national security adviser, added that military threats against Iran would only make matters worse.

"If America or Israel attacks Iran under the pretense of nuclear issues, Iran might move toward making an atomic bomb," he said.

Why It Matters: US President Donald Trump has threatened to bomb Iran if there is no agreement on Tehran's nuclear program.

The 2015 nuclear deal, which Trump withdrew from in 2018, is set to expire in October. Once the deal expires, world powers will not be able to reimpose UN sanctions on Iran.

Acknowledging that, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot on April 2 warned in parliament that in the absence of a new deal, "a military confrontation would appear to be almost inevitable."

Iran has rejected Trump's proposal for direct negotiations, saying it will only agree to indirect talks unless the US president drops his "maximum pressure" campaign. However, Trump claimed on April 3 that he thinks Iran has reconsidered its stance.

Barrot said "our priority" is to reach an agreement that "verifiably and durably constrains" Iran's nuclear program.

But contradictory messages have been coming from the United States, with Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff calling for the "full dismantlement" of the program.

Fabian Hinz, a researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said recent military drills and the unveiling of missile bases suggest Tehran believes military threats are credible. The United States beefing up its presence in the Middle East has certainly contributed.

He told RFE/RL's Radio Farda that a military strike would only "buy time" rather than destroy Iran's nuclear capability, since "knowledge can't be bombed."

Hinz argued that if Iran's nuclear program is attacked it would likely continue covertly. He added that identifying and targeting supply chains in Iran could "disrupt the program really heavily."

What's Being Said: Larijani's comments, particularly on the potential to develop a bomb, has caused a flurry of reactions inside Iran.

Reformist analyst Ahmad Zeidabadi said the Islamic republic "only makes matter more difficult for itself and easier for America and Israel" when officials keep touting Iran's military strength and the ability to weaponize the nuclear program.

Culture Minister Abbas Salehi rejected the possibility of Iran going nuclear, insisting Khamenei's fatwa against developing a nuclear weapon would not change based on current affairs because it was rooted in "religious principles."

Expert Opinion: "From an Iranian perspective, it would make sense to take all of Trump very seriously, because he killed one of the highest-ranking members of the regime," said Hinz, referring to the 2020 killing of IRGC Quds Force general Qassem Soleimani.

That's all from me for now.

Until next time,

Kian Sharifi

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here . It will be sent to your inbox every Friday.

Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter.

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Kian Sharifi. In this edition I'm looking at Iran displaying its missile prowess as a means of deterrence, despite having its missile-production capabilities degraded last year.

What You Need To Know

• Iran Unveils New Underground Missile Base: The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) this week unveiled what has been described as Iran’s largest underground missile “city.” It comes as Iran’s network of regional proxies -- for years its main deterrence against Israel and the United States -- has suffered major setbacks and is at its weakest. With the Donald Trump administration not ruling out military action against Iran if there is no nuclear deal, Tehran is trying to project strength to ward off potential US or Israeli strikes.

• Journalist Trades Microphone For Rifle To Defend Ukraine: Kourosh Sehati, a journalist-turned-fighter, has become the first known Iranian to join Ukraine’s Foreign Legion against Russia. Sehati and his Ukrainian wife have two young children, and he calls Ukraine his “second home.” He told RFE/RL’s Radio Farda that he left his family and job in London to defend Ukraine against what he called “the club of dictators and invaders.”

• Iran Accused Of Using Forged Papers To Evade Oil Sanctions: Iraq’s Oil Minister Hayan Abdel-Ghani stated this week that Iranian oil tankers seized by US forces in the Persian Gulf were using forged Iraqi documents to evade sanctions. Iran swiftly denied the claim, accusing the media of misquoting the Iraqi minister. Hard-line voices in Tehran went further, accusing Baghdad of "selling Iran out" to the United States. Later, Iran’s oil minister, Mohsen Paknejad -- himself under US sanctions -- spoke with his Iraqi counterpart, urging “vigilance against the sedition of the enemies of both countries.”

The Big Issue

A Facility For Long-Range Missiles?

Iran says it has numerous underground missile bases across Iran, and sporadically unveils some with a lot of hype.

The newly unveiled base -- dubbed “a missile metropolis” by some outlets -- is a massive facility filled with high-powered weaponry, but experts say no new hardware could be spotted in footage shared by state media.

Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow with the Washington Institute, noted that an “unusual feature” of the base is its “wide and quite spacious tunnels and galleries. He concluded that the facility, which he speculated was in western Iran, was designed to house intermediate-range and intercontinental ballistic missiles.

The base is home to missiles that travel well beyond 1,000 kilometers, including the Kheibarshekan and Sejjil ballistic missile and Paveh cruise missile, all of which can reach Israel and US bases in the Middle East if launched from western Iran.

Why It Matters: Iran is showing no interest in holding direct talks over its nuclear program with the United States, and has outright rejected negotiations to rein in its missile program and regional activities.

Trump has said he prefers a deal with Tehran, warning that it beats the alternative approach, which would be to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities -- something that US ally and Iranian foe Israel appears ready and willing to do.

For decades Iran relied on its sprawling network of regional allies and proxies, known as the ‘axis of resistance’, as deterrence against Israel and the United States. But key members of the group, including the US-designated Lebanese terrorist group Hezbollah, have been militarily degraded by Israel over the past year.

Last month, The New York Times reported that Iran was considering developing a crude nuclear weapon as a deterrent against potential attacks. However, experts believe Western intelligence would likely detect such efforts in time to respond militarily.

Despite Iran’s show of missile prowess, an Israeli attack in November degraded the Islamic republic’s missile production capabilities.

What's Being Said: Gregory Brew, an Iran analyst at Eurasia Group, said Iran was “clearly” sending a message with the unveiling.

“Iran is clearly signaling it regards its ability to bring overwhelming force via [medium-range ballistic missiles] as its chief source of deterrence, with Hezbollah out of action,” he wrote on X.

Abdolrasool Divsallar, a senior researcher at the UN Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR), said Iran “relies on the size of its missile arsenal” to make up for deficits in their accuracy and destructive power.

The New York-based Soufan Group argued that Iran’s unwillingness to restrict its missile and drone programs or its support for regional armed factions, in addition to its demands for extensive sanctions relief, “will further complicate US-Iran negotiations.”

Expert Opinion: “These developments reveal Iranian thinking about restructuring of its deterrence, highlighting a continued reliance on conventional forces & unwillingness to switch to nuclear deterrence,” Divsallar wrote on X.

That's all from me for now.

Until next time,

Kian Sharifi

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be sent to your inbox every Friday.