The European Union's annual enlargement report will slam Georgia for its backsliding on democratic policies while generally giving a positive review to Albania, Moldova, Montenegro, and Ukraine on their progress toward membership, a draft of the report, seen by RFE/RL, shows.
The European Commission will release the report, which tracks political developments in 10 countries aiming to join the bloc -- Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Georgia, Kosovo, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, Turkey, and Ukraine -- on November 4.
While the overall tone is positive for most of the countries, the report singles out Georgia with a scathing assessment, claiming developments in a number of fields threaten democracy in the South Caucasus country.
"Georgia has experienced serious democratic backsliding, with a rapid erosion of the rule of law and fundamental rights being severely restricted," it says, noting that institutions designed to uphold rule of law have been instrumentalized by the government for partisan objectives" and "judicial capture."
Tbilisi's Collision Course With Brussels
The South Caucasus republic has been on a collision course with Brussels for a long time with Tbilisi adopting both anti-LGBT legislation and a so-called foreign agent law -- similar to legislation used in Russia to crack down on free speech and civil society -- amid heavy criticism last year.
The relationship deteriorated further after parliamentary elections in October 2024 in which the ruling Georgian Dream party -- backed by billionaire former Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili -- controversially clung on to power and halted accession talks while adopting what many, including Brussels, see as Russia-friendly policies.
"Adopted and enforced restrictive laws targeting activists, civil society, and independent media threaten the survival of democratic foundations and are unprecedented among candidate countries," says the draft report, which is subject to change.
"No steps have been taken by the authorities to reverse the course of action and bring the country back on its EU path," it adds.
The report is the first on the state of play in EU candidate countries to be issued by the new European Commission, which saw its 27 commissioners, one for each member country, begin its mandate in December 2024.
The document notes that the enlargement process "now is moving faster than in the last 15 years," with a "realistic possibility" that new countries will join the bloc by the end of the new commission's mandate, which runs to 2029. The last country to join the EU was Croatia in 2013.
While not mentioning which countries are progressing fastest, it notes that Montenegro aims to close EU accession negotiations in 2026 and Albania just a year later.
Montenegro has opened negotiations in all 33 policy chapters that EU hopefuls need to fulfill before joining the bloc and closed seven of them. Albania, meanwhile, has opened 28 chapters in little over a year, though it hasn't closed any yet.
The two Western Balkan countries, together with Moldova and Ukraine, appear to be the frontrunners for Brussels at the moment.
The report notes the quartet has made progress on fundamental rule of law issues and is building a track record when it comes to fighting corruption.
A Warning For Ukraine
Ukraine, however, is warned not to backtrack and again interfere with the anti-corruption courts NABU and SAP. That comes in response to a brief move by the government over the summer when a law passed by parliament was seen as a threat to the independence of the agencies.
Massive street protests against the new law, along with international pressure, forced the government to reverse the move with a new law that would address concerns of Russian influence but not jeopardize the independence of anti-corruption bodies.
The commission's report cautions Kyiv that "any action that weakens or reverses strong anti-corruption reforms must be avoided."
While the European Commission is in charge of giving assessment of reforms in candidate countries and issuing recommendations, it is the 27 EU member states that decide via unanimity to open and close negotiations of the policy chapters, something that makes any prediction of membership difficult.
This is especially true for Ukraine and Moldova, which were given the green light to formally start accession talks in December 2023 but haven't opened them because of Hungary blocking Ukraine over what Budapest says is a lack of rights for the Hungarian-speaking minority in the country.
Similarly, Bulgaria has blocked North Macedonia for not referencing Bulgarians as an ethnic minority in the country's constitution, something requiring a two-thirds majority in the Macedonian parliament.
The commission's report also says Skopje should do more to safeguard judicial independence and fight corruption.
'The Polarization In Serbian Society'
Serbia, which has opened 22 policy chapters, has also been stuck for years as some EU member states are critical of Belgrade's refusal to align with EU sanctions on Russia.
But there are also other issues such as a perceived backsliding when it comes to freedom of expression and smear campaigns against civil society.
The text states that "the polarization in Serbian society has deepened against the background of mass students' and citizens' protests taking place across Serbia since November 2024, reflecting disappointment of citizens over corruption and the perceived lack of accountability and transparency, coupled with instances of excessive use of force against protestors and pressure on civil society."
Bosnia-Herzegovina hasn't started accession talks, either, due to political divisions along national lines in the country that have prevented Sarajevo from appointing a chief negotiator for the talks with Brussels. The report also asks for more reforms of the judiciary and state institutions.
Kosovo, which applied for membership in late 2022, is so far not an official EU candidate country as a handful of EU member states still haven't recognized its independence from Serbia following the violent breakup of the former Yugoslavia. This, coupled with the protracted political deadlock in the country in recent months, makes an assessment of Pristina difficult.
