Israel’s large-scale assault on Iran appears to have stunned the country’s military leadership and may have delayed an immediate retaliatory strike.
But it remains unclear whether it achieved its primary objective: crippling Iran’s nuclear program, which Israel claims Tehran is on the verge of weaponizing despite claims from Iran that it is solely for civilian purposes.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other Israeli officials have alleged Iran recently accelerated uranium enrichment and weaponization efforts to the point where it could produce a nuclear weapon within months -- or even days.
Operation Rising Lion, as Israel has named the strikes, targeted key components of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure -- including the Natanz enrichment facility -- as well as military installations in and around Tehran.
Israeli warplanes also struck missile production facilities and residential buildings believed to house top military officials and nuclear scientists. Among those reportedly killed was Hossein Salami, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), though Iran has not confirmed his death.
The objective, Israeli officials say, was to degrade both Iran’s nuclear capabilities and its ability to retaliate using its extensive ballistic missile arsenal -- a threat Israel sees as second only to a nuclear-armed Iran.
“Netanyahu has opened a new chapter in the Middle East -- an era of Israeli-Iranian nuclear war,” wrote Eran Etzion, a former deputy head of Israel’s National Security Council, on X.
“A war whose stated goal is to stop Iran’s nuclear program, but whose actual aim appears to be targeting the very foundations of the Iranian regime.”
High-Stakes Gamble
Security analysts describe the operation as a preemptive gamble -- an attempt to avert what Israel sees as an existential threat, but one that risks igniting a regional war, derailing diplomacy, and even accelerating Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
Danny Citrinonwicz, a senior fellow at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies, said the strike dealt a significant blow to Iran’s prestige by penetrating its air defenses and eliminating senior commanders.
But, he argued, its impact on Iran’s nuclear program was “limited,” as key facilities -- including the heavily fortified Fordow site -- remain intact.
“This is just the opening phase of a longer campaign,” Citrinonwicz wrote on X. “Israel appears to be holding back some cards for the likely escalation ahead.”
What Are Iran’s Options?
The sixth round of nuclear talks between Iran and the United States, scheduled for June 15, is now unlikely to proceed. With diplomacy appearing to have fallen by the wayside, any Iranian response risks deepening a cycle of escalation.
Iran’s immediate reaction came in the form of around 100 Shahed drones launched toward Israel -- many of which were intercepted outside Israeli airspace.
Iranian leaders have also repeated warnings that they would retaliate against both Israel and US forces in the region. Although Washington has denied involvement in the strike, Iran may still hold it responsible.
Should Tehran go through with its threat to target U.S. military bases, it could drag Washington into a broader conflict.
According to US intelligence estimates, Iran possesses some 2,000 missiles -- many capable of carrying warheads with more than 900 kilograms of explosives -- and is producing roughly 50 ballistic missiles per month. It remains unclear how much of this capability was affected by the Israeli assault.
Iran’s regional proxies, long viewed as force multipliers, have been severely degraded. The Gaza war has battered the US-designated Palestinian terrorist group Hamas, and the Lebanese Hezbollah is still reeling from recent clashes with Israel. That leaves the Houthis in Yemen as Tehran’s most militarily viable ally.
Tehran may also consider withdrawing from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), the cornerstone of global nuclear arms control. While US intelligence -- contrary to Israeli assessments -- currently believes that Iran is not actively pursuing nuclear weapons, the Islamic republic could use the Israeli attack to justify abandoning its NPT obligations and moving toward weaponization.
“Netanyahu’s government may have just handed the Iranian regime both domestic and international legitimacy to pursue nuclear weapons,” Etzion warned.
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